Mariners Scouting Report

[marinergeek]

The Lineup

 

Ichiro Suzuki: Returning to patrol Area 51 (right field) is Ichiro Suzuki, who looks to outperform his amazing 2004 campaign. Breaking George Sisler's hit record last year, Suzuki provided a spark of interest as a gloomy season wore on. Setting a personal Major League best in batting average last year at .372, and a new batting stance that helped him hit over .400 in most months last year, can a .400 season be in reach?

 

Jeremy Reed: Rookie extraordinaire, and along with Madritsch, one of the few young players to actually manage to stick with the 2005 team. Jeremy Reed will take over in center field, and looks to bring some added defense to the expanses of Safeco Field. Batting second behind Ichiro Suzuki, the M's look to run the bases early in games. An exciting talent, Reed rarely strikes out - and it will be fun counting his at-bats between them.

 

Adrian Beltre: Beltre had a career year last year playing third for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Mariner fans will be keeping their eyes peeled to see if this was a one-year explosion, or the real Beltre finally coming through. A strong spring has backed up the feelings that we will be seeing a true hitter in Seattle once more, as Beltre will look to come close to his 48 HRS, 104 Runs, 121 RBI, and .334 batting average of 2004 - all while playing Gold-Glove calibre defense at the hot corner.

 

Richie Sexson: Richie was off to a slow start average-wise in 2004, and another impressive power season in 2004 when an injured shoulder sent him to the disabled list after only 23 games. Check swings, monster home runs, and Cameron-esque strikeouts will lead the way as a new #4 hitter and starting first baseman joins the Mariners for 2005.

 

Bret Boone: Boone had a frustrating year in 2004. As the Mariners sank lower in the rankings, so too did Boone's stellar defense and batting average. While keeping up impressive power numbers at second base, Boone hit a mere .251. Is our bundle of confidence slowing down, or will Boone bounce back yet again with a solid season?

 

Raul Ibanez:: Raul Ibanez put in a solid year playing left field for the Mariners in 2004, and looks to remain healthy all of 2005 by moving to replace the retired Edgar Martinez as DH in 2005. While Ibanez can't replace EDGAR, he's looking for his hot spring and end of 2004 to carry him in the upcoming season. If Randy Winn is ever traded, look for Raul to reclaim his position in left.

 

Randy Winn: Our new Mr. Consistent, Randy once again put up solid numbers in Safeco field while playing a questionable defense in center field. This year, Randy will once again be asked to play left as he did next to Mike Cameron in 2003. A more suitable position for the speedy outfielder, Winn will be able to make up for hesitated decisions with his strong legs. Randy Winn batting seventh will show Mariner fans one of the deeper lineups they have seen in a number of years.

 

Miguel Olivo: Coming to the Mariners in the Freddy Garcia trade that also brought us Jeremy Reed, Olivo has been named the starting catcher after putting in a winter of hard work improving his defensive abilities. Behind the backstop, Olivo has shown an improved ability in stopping balls thrown in the dirt, and as always, a powerful arm that will nail most base runners attempting to steal. At the plate, the Mariners are hoping for the Miguel Olivo that hit .270 and struck out 29 times in 141 at bats with Chicago rather than the one that hit .200 and struck out 55 times in 160 bats with the M's. Improved confidence in his catching abilities, a new coaching staff, and increasing comfort with a new team can only help.

 

Pokey Reese: A line-drive up the middle...what's this, Pokey fields it standing up, and throws the runner out at first. This is the type of insane-play-made-easy that keeps Pokey Reese in a major league uniform. If Pokey can stay healthy, (and since he'll start the season on the DL with a sore tummy [or something], that looks to be unlikely) he has been handed an every day job at shortstop with the Seattle Mariners. Look for splendid defense, and a player struggling to hit his weight.

 

Top to Bottom: Improved offense with the key additions of Beltre and Richie Sexson, but also a much improved defense will shine in 2005. Jeremy Reed will help in the outfield, and with Randy Winn and Ichiro Suzuki also playing outfield, we once again will have a trio of potential center-fielders roaming the grass of Safeco. Beltre brings a solid glove, as does Richie Sexson, and a spectacular Pokey will not only be an improvement over the lead-hands seen in 2004, he may allow Boone to fudge a bit to his left, keeping Boone's defense solid if he has indeed lost a step. Overall, a fairly big step up for Seattle's starting nine in 2005.

 

- more coming -

[marinergeek]

The Bench

 

A weak bench has become a trademark of Seattle since 2001 passed away into the great land of memories. Dan Wilson will provide a solid back-up at catcher, and might hit a bit when not relied on to catch 4/5 games. Scott Spiezio is a solid back-up, and with a slimmer body, will be able to command some playing time in the outfield and corner infield. Willie Bloomquist will return as pinch-running extraordinaire, and will unfortunately be asked to do other things as well. Bucky Jacobsen will look to return to the big club once his knee has fully recovered, and will provide an able bat for pinch-hitting duties when that day comes.

[marinergeek]

Starting Pitching

 

Jamie Moyer: Jamie Moyer will look to leave 2004 in his rearview, and show that he is still the crafty left-hander that can post a mid to low 3 ERA in the American League. Did age finally catch up to Jamie Moyer, or does he just have the occasional bad year? Many would have set him loose after his abysmal 2000 season (A 5.49 ERA vs a 5.21 ERA last year), which would have proved to be a mistake as he posted three of his best seasons immediately following. Don't bet against Moyer making yet another comeback.

 

Bobby Madritsch: A pitcher most every Mariner fan should look forward to watching in 2005. Madritsch will not only add solid innings in 2005, he'll add a bit of color to a team that has lacked it in recent years. While it might be unreasonable to expect Madritsch to post a low 3 ERA as he did in 88 innings last year, we can expect to see more angry stares at umpires, and batters drilled for looking at a Mariner wrong. Or adjusting his contact. Or something Bobby didn't like.

 

Gil Meche: Can Gil Meche put an entire season together like his late 2004 numbers? History tells us no, but Gil is a young pitcher with good amounts of potential, and flashes of pitching brilliance. Will a more simple repertoire of pitches allow better focus when the lights go on at Safeco?

 

Joel Pineiro: Strained flexor bundle? "Sore" shoulder? Or the next victim of the Seattle chop shop? Pineiro will look to rebound from a terrible season, in which the last few months were spent recovering from injury. A few pitching outings this spring following a sore shoulder, and the Mariners are ready to plug him into the rotation yet again. Ready to rock-and-roll, or a desparate move on the part of a team with very little pitching depth?

 

Aaron Sele: Beating out Ryan Franklin for the fifth spot in the rotation, Aaron Sele begins his second stint with the Mariners. More-or-less a placeholder for Felix Hernandez, regardless of who got the job, the Mariners will look to Sele for some consistent if not spectacular starts, and a solid number of innings. Sele will probably be an improvement over Ryan Franklin, but with other question marks surrounding the starting rotation, it might not matter.

 

Top to Bottom:

Can they stay healthy? That will be one big key for the Mariners starting rotation in 2005, as Joel Pineiro possibly lingers on the edges of surgery, and three of the five have had significant surgeries in their careers already. If one or more pitchers go down, look for the Mariners to look to Ryan Franklin, Clint Nageotte, or Felix Hernandez to pick up the pieces. The rotation as is should be solid, but not spectacular provided everything goes as predicted. Still room for upgrade if the Mariners do decide to look towards trades in 2005.

[marinergeek]

The Bullpen

 

Eeeeek! Eddie Guardado, if he can stay healthy (another of those capital letter ifs), will lead the bullpen as closer, and if the Mariners are smart, they will let him pitch the 7th and 8th innings as well. Hasegawa will try to regain his form, and both Hasegawa and Villone will try to improve upon their terrible spring trainings. A number of young, relatively untested pitchers and scrub major leaguers fill out the rest. Pray for Soriano.

[quickman]

this is great info, I have informed another mariner fan, he will jump on soon. I like this very much. The key is keeping ichiro off the bases. AJ will never be able to throw him out.

[wufners]

this is great info, I have informed another mariner fan, he will jump on soon. I like this very much. The key is keeping ichiro off the bases. AJ will never be able to throw him out.

 

Mike Hargrove has definitely made the running game a bigger priority for the Mariner than it has been in awhile. If the Mariners scouts did their homework, they may indeed try and exploit Pierzynski's arm.

 

What's the deal with his arm anyway? Is it just weak? Inaccurate? Both?

 

That said, I get the feeling Ichiro doesn't like to run. After that first season in 2001, he's really put the breaks on his running game. Heck, with as much as he's been on base this year, he's only attempted 4 steals (he's been caught once.)

 

Someone once suggested that the reason Ichiro doesn't steal as much as you think he would is because he doesn't like to fail. If he doesn't believe he can steal the base, he won't attempt it. There may be some truth to that.

[CWSGuy406]

Wufners or Geek, when do you think Hernandez will get the call to the big club and actually stick? The kid looks like he's gonna be a stud, especially pitching half his games at Safeco...

[CWSGuy406]

Oh, and wuf -- about AJ Pierz, I think people overstate how weak AJ's arm is. It's no Miguel Olivo-like cannon, but it's not terrible. I'd say it's average or slightly below.

Edited April 15, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[marinergeek]

Wufners or Geek, when do you think Hernandez will get the call to the big club and actually stick?  The kid looks like he's gonna be a stud, especially pitching half his games at Safeco...

 

Felix has been the subject of much debate on our forum. We're pretty devided about it. My gut feel is he will bee a post all-star bullpen addition. As far as "sticking" with the club, I think that the goal of M's managmenet is to call him up when he's ready and not have him going back and forth between the Majors and AAA.

 

Here's a link to a thread dedicated to the subject:

The Great Felix Debate

[wufners]

I'd like to see Felix Hernandez up NOW. There's no call to have Aaron Sele in your rotation when you got a kid like that in your system. But I digress. . .

 

I think he'll be up this year. So far in two starts at AAA he's only given up one unearned run in 10 innings. His curve which was a little flat in the spring is starting to snap again, but he still needs to get a little better control of his fastball. Since he took all winter off, he's still cracking off some of the rust, but I betcha he's at full strength pretty soon.

 

There seems to be some political wrangling withing the Mariners FO to keep him down for a little while. The image conscious Mariner managment doesn't want to risk making a mistake with him. But everyone who saw him pitch seems to agree he has the best stuff of any Mariner pitcher right NOW.

 

If he tears apart AAA and one of the Mariner starters struggles (Sele) or gets injured (already happening), I expect we could see him as early as June.

 

Otherwise look for him as a late season call up.

 

The Mariners are being extra cautious, and have stated they will keep him to 175 innings this year. That includes AAA AND spring training. So if he does come up, he'll be on an extremely short leash.

Edited April 15, 2005 by wufners

[IgnatiusReillyTheThird]

Even though they wouldn't publically admit it, I think someone in the organization is thinking about his arbitration clock ticking if they bring him up in the first half. I expect he'll be the first person brought up once the half-way mark is reached.

[CWSGuy406]

I'd like to see Felix Hernandez up NOW.  There's no call to have Aaron Sele in your rotation when you got a kid like that in your system.  But I digress. . .

 

I think he'll be up this year.  So far in two starts at AAA he's only given up one unearned run in 10 innings.  His curve which was a little flat in the spring is starting to snap again, but he still needs to get a little better control of his fastball.  Since he took all winter off, he's still cracking off some of the rust, but I betcha he's at full strength pretty soon.

 

There seems to be some political wrangling withing the Mariners FO to keep him down for a little while.  The image conscious Mariner managment doesn't want to risk making a mistake with him.  But everyone who saw him pitch seems to agree he has the best stuff of any Mariner pitcher right NOW.

 

If he tears apart AAA and one of the Mariner starters struggles (Sele) or gets injured (already happening), I expect we could see him as early as June.

 

Otherwise look for him as a late season call up.

 

The Mariners are being extra cautious, and have stated they will keep him to 175 innings this year.  That includes AAA AND spring training.  So if he does come up, he'll be on an extremely short leash.

 

That's kind of my feeling, too, wuf. I feel that if a kid is ready to pitch in the big leagues, you gotta bring him up, regardless of age. If he keeps dominating (as he's started off) through 50-75 IP, is there really any reason (other than starting the arbitration clock?) to not bring him up?

 

Then again, thinking about it a little more, they probably want to wait till after June, because I think you get an extra half a year as far as arbitration is concerned.

[Chisoxfn]

Felix has been the subject of much debate on our forum.  We're pretty devided about it.  My gut feel is he will bee a post all-star bullpen addition.  As far as "sticking" with the club, I think that the goal of M's managmenet is to call him up when he's ready and not have him going back and forth between the Majors and AAA.

 

Here's a link to a thread dedicated to the subject:

The Great Felix Debate

I saw him pitch a game this spring and put it this way, the kid is right on the brink. He still has some command issues, but just watching him pitch I was left thinking I was seeing one of the best arms of the past 10 years (no joke). The mix between his fastball and curve is just filthy.

 

Assuming he stays healthy and can throw strikes, he's going to be phenomenal.

[Rowand44]

I saw him pitch a game this spring and put it this way, the kid is right on the brink.  He still has some command issues, but just watching him pitch I was left thinking I was seeing one of the best arms of the past 10 years (no joke).  The mix between his fastball and curve is just filthy. 

 

Assuming he stays healthy and can throw strikes, he's going to be phenomenal.

I saw him pitch that game against the cubs.....man, he was damn impressive.

[Queen Prawn]

Bobby Madritsch: A pitcher most every Mariner fan should look forward to watching in 2005. Madritsch will not only add solid innings in 2005, he'll add a bit of color to a team that has lacked it in recent years. While it might be unreasonable to expect Madritsch to post a low 3 ERA as he did in 88 innings last year, we can expect to see more angry stares at umpires, and batters drilled for looking at a Mariner wrong. Or adjusting his contact. Or something Bobby didn't like.

 

Bobby is a good guy and I wish him nothing but the best (I went to grammar school with him).

[RockRaines]

That's kind of my feeling, too, wuf.  I feel that if a kid is ready to pitch in the big leagues, you gotta bring him up, regardless of age.  If he keeps dominating (as he's started off) through 50-75 IP, is there really any reason (other than starting the arbitration clock?) to not bring him up?

 

Then again, thinking about it a little more, they probably want to wait till after June, because I think you get an extra half a year as far as arbitration is concerned.

Exactly the debate that has been raging on about BMAC for the past year or so.....