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The Mendoza Line...


nitetrain8601

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 09:54 PM)
Critical of Crede after 2 years, not a few games.

 

Yeah, but people seem to have it in for Crede. If Crede was still hitting .200 people would be b****ing left and right, while one person says something negative about Rowand and everyone comes to his defense.

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QUOTE(mac9001 @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 10:05 PM)
Yeah, but people seem to have it in for Crede. If Crede was still hitting .200 people would be b****ing left and right, while one person says something negative about Rowand and everyone comes to his defense.

Because Rowand is good and Crede has been bad for 2 years plus the first couple games of this season.

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QUOTE(mac9001 @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 09:05 PM)
Yeah, but people seem to have it in for Crede. If Crede was still hitting .200 people would be b****ing left and right, while one person says something negative about Rowand and everyone comes to his defense.

 

Rowand has shown he can put it together over a season. Crede has not. It is just that simple.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 10:06 PM)
Because Rowand is good and Crede has been bad for 2 years plus the first couple games of this season.

 

Let me start by saying I'm a huge Rowand fan, but 3 1/2 great months shouldn't cut him that much slack. With that said I don't think he should criticize Rowand after only 16 games; he was justing pointing out people shouldn't have criticized Crede after only a few games.

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QUOTE(mac9001 @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 10:26 PM)
Let me start by saying I'm a huge Rowand fan, but 3 1/2 great months shouldn't cut him that much slack. With that said I don't think he should criticize Rowand after only 16 games; he was justing pointing out people shouldn't have criticized Crede after only a few games.

I feel this is a key here. People were not criticizing Crede after only a few games they were criticizing him after 2 full seasons of below expectation play.

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I feel this is a key here. People were not criticizing Crede after only a few games they were criticizing him after 2 full seasons of below expectation play.

Excellent post. People here want to say, "I told you so" when it comes to Crede but that's all a bunch of crap. If you just say that every Sox player is good, even when they are sucking, you will always be right once they start performing the way they are supposed to.

Edited by Jabroni
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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 10:28 PM)
I feel this is a key here. People were not criticizing Crede after only a few games they were criticizing him after 2 full seasons of below expectation play.

 

It a new season, the guy should be given a chance. I don't get how you can count a guy out after 5 games, like many people seemed to have done. You know what, I'm gonna stop arguing his point, sit back, drink a beer and enjoy a Sox win. Who cares, the Sox are 13-4 and isn't that what really matters.

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For the most part, hitters really can't control thier BA on balls in play(BABIP), i.e. not HR's or K's. Ichiro is the obvious exception, and speedsters/bunters tend to have a higher BABIP. Essentially you can use BABIP, along with your knowledge of what type of hitter you're comparing, to tell if a hitter has been lucky or not.

 

After tonight, Rowand has a BABIP of .250 compared to a league average of .297 -- His average should come up. Duh

Crede, who you might think with his recent hot streak may be a little lucky, has a BABIP of .298 or essentially league average. -- His average hasn't been attributed to luck. Surprise.

 

Last year Rowand had a BABIP of .341 compared to a league average of .303, and Crede had a BABIP of .247. In other words, crede is a good candidate for a rebound, and Rowand is a good candidate for regression.

 

 

Formula for BABIP = [H-HR]/[AB-HR-K] -- Obviously not everything can be explained by subtracting homeruns and strikouts, but it's a good indicator.

Edited by Gene Honda Civic
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