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The Mendoza Line...


nitetrain8601

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QUOTE(Jabroni @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 03:32 AM)
Excellent post.  People here want to say, "I told you so" when it comes to Crede but that's all a bunch of crap.  If you just say that every Sox player is good, even when they are sucking, you will always be right once they start performing the way they are supposed to.

 

I don't see how it's any different from you praising Ozuna after a hot spring, and even suggesting that he be our starting 3rd-baseman to replace Crede... :huh:

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I don't see how it's any different from you praising Ozuna after a hot spring, and even suggesting that he be our starting 3rd-baseman to replace Crede...  :huh:

Ozuna isn't getting any playing time so it's not like you can know how he would perform. Besides, Crede WAS sucking when I wanted to see Ozuna at 3rd base. Many other posters were suggesting the same thing in chat. :huh

 

By the way, it's 17 games into the season. Are you predicting that Crede will keep this up for the entire season? I sure hope he does but I wouldn't bet my life savings on it.

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QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 12:11 AM)
For the most part, hitters really can't control thier BA on balls in play(BABIP), i.e. not HR's or K's.  Ichiro is the obvious exception, and speedsters/bunters tend to have a higher BABIP.  Essentially you can use BABIP, along with your knowledge of what type of hitter you're comparing, to tell if a hitter has been lucky or not.

 

After tonight, Rowand has a BABIP of .250 compared to a league average of .297 -- His average should come up. Duh

Crede, who you might think with his recent hot streak may be a little lucky, has a BABIP of .298 or essentially league average. -- His average hasn't been attributed to luck. Surprise.

 

Last year Rowand had a BABIP of .341 compared to a league average of .303, and Crede had a BABIP of .247.  In other words, crede is a good candidate for a rebound, and Rowand is a good candidate for regression.

Formula for BABIP = [H-HR]/[AB-HR-K]  -- Obviously not everything can be explained by subtracting homeruns and strikouts, but it's a good indicator.

I musta messed up, I tossed some s*** in a spreadsheet, and Crede's current BABIP is .333

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Apr 22, 2005 -> 08:30 PM)
Ya, 17 games into the season and Rowand is batting .226. Let's s*** on him. Atleast Rowand has put together 1 good season in his career unlike Crede. Dumbass thread.

 

 

Not entirely. When I made the Crede Line thread he started picking it up the very next day. Maybe there's something to this whole thing.

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QUOTE(Jabroni @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 05:40 AM)
Ozuna isn't getting any playing time so it's not like you can know how he would perform.  Besides, Crede WAS sucking when I wanted to see Ozuna at 3rd base.  Many other posters were suggesting the same thing in chat. :huh

 

By the way, it's 17 games into the season.  Are you predicting that Crede will keep this up for the entire season?  I sure hope he does but I wouldn't bet my life savings on it.

 

No, I don't think Crede will keep it up the whole season.

 

I'm just saying it was silly to think that Ozuna was the solution. At least, IMHO.

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I'm just as dissapointed with Rowand as most people are but the team is playing well and one of the characteristics of a good team is their ability to pick each other up. I'm sure most of the White Sox thought Rowand would be one of the prime offensive forces this year but the fact that he is grossly underachieving sort of makes me happy. I can't wait until Aaron and Dye start to come around, not only will it make our lineup that much more potent it will help my fantasy team! :gosox4:

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QUOTE(qwerty @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 12:55 AM)
Not really. There was a point behind it.

 

Give the man a full month before ripping him. I think he has earned it. As far as I'm concerned, I will never ever say anything bad about AR. He has been my fav player on the Sox since he crashed into the wall making a catch twice within like a week back like 4 years ago. I've been on the bandwagon from the beginning and I'll go down with the ship if need be (even though that wont be necessary).

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How about instead of worrying about all these stupid names for it, let's just leave the name at the Mendoza Line? :huh

 

Its kind of universally known as that, so no need to get Yankee or Red Sox fans confused...since they are confused pretty easily most of the time.

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QUOTE(mrzo2733 @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 01:44 AM)
Give the man  a full month before ripping him. I think he has earned it.  As far as I'm concerned, I will never ever say anything bad about AR. He has been my fav player on the Sox since he crashed into the wall making a catch twice within like a week back like 4 years ago. I've been on the bandwagon from the beginning and I'll go down with the ship if need be (even though that wont be necessary).

 

The fact that you say you'll never say anything bad about Rowand just means that you won't admit when he's doing bad. Also, were there many threads about Rowand last year?? I don't know because I wasn't here, but I would guess not. Maybe, just maybe, Crede is having a breakout year similar to Adrian Beltre. I forgot though, half of this board is one big Anti-Crede Propaganda and 80% is Pro-Rowand Propaganda. It seems that there are rules against calling certain favorites out.

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QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 08:20 AM)
It seems that there are rules against calling certain favorites out.

 

It seems that you are wrong. There are no rules on who you can call out or not, it's just that some people will inevitably disagree with you.

 

Crede's hot right now, but his best stretch so far has been a really good offensive half-season, although he has played plus to plus plus defense throughout his whole career. Expecting more than that is foolish. The ball is in Crede's hands to prove we can expect more from him offensively. Rowand has been a historic slow starter, that's why he gets a bit of slack on this board. If he doesn't start turning it around in a manner his history suggests, then we'll call him out.

 

Also, none of us has followed Dye that closely so we really have no idea what is going on with him.

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QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 09:20 AM)
The fact that you say you'll never say anything bad about Rowand just means that you won't admit when he's doing bad. Also, were there many threads about Rowand last year?? I don't know because I wasn't here, but I would guess not. Maybe, just maybe, Crede is having a breakout year similar to Adrian Beltre. I forgot though, half of this board is one big Anti-Crede Propaganda and 80% is Pro-Rowand Propaganda. It seems that there are rules against calling certain favorites out.

 

There were many many dump Rowand threads during the first half od last season. Those people were wrong, and they are wrong now.

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I'm not sure how to respond to this.

First off Rowand has always been a slow starter. There isn't a doubt in my mind he will come around and hit at least .280 plus... Second of all he is perhaps the hardest worker on this team. We'd be alot better off if we had 9 Aaron Rowand's. The guy works his but off and he has talent. He will come around.

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QUOTE(SoxFan101 @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 11:49 AM)
If we had 9 Aaron Rowands right now we would be 0-17  :ph34r: ,  Yes he works his ass off and that big season he had a good last year but he is not the most talented individual out there but I hope he can pull it up to .280ish as the season progresses.

 

What he said. :notworthy

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You need to understand the Mendoza line first. It is someone's batting average over the course of the whole season and actually the batting average history of a guys career. Many players get off to bad starts and rebound. Rowand is one of these and in my opinion you are way off base with your characterization. Please retract it and say you are sorry.

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QUOTE(elrockinMT @ Apr 23, 2005 -> 01:03 PM)
You need to understand the Mendoza line first. It is someone's batting average over the course of the whole season and actually the batting average history of a guys career. Many players get off to bad starts and rebound. Rowand is one of these and in my opinion you are way off base with your characterization. Please retract it and say you are sorry.

 

Then why was one made for Crede???

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