The House of Cards Dilemma

[SuperSteve]

The one thing I disagree with is walks. Once Frank comes back, he will be drawing walks. The rest of the guys have never really drawn walks it doesn't seem.

[Guest JimH]

The team still has a lot to work on, in terms of improvements. But the Sox are in a pretty good position, a fast start like this can compensate for a losing streak or a bad month.

 

Thing is, barring injury, the Sox have too much good starting pitching to go into a long losing streak IMO. Even if one of the starters gets banged up, there are serviceable reinforcements in McCarthy, Person, Stephens. The latter two aren't world beaters but the have experience and hopefully can give you 5-6 decent innings in an emergency.

 

Plus, if the Thomas timetable is July ... that's a big addition. Even if he struggles he's still got the batting eye and gets on base.

[KevHead0881]

Really, what I think this season is going to come down to is how we play Minnesota (as it usually does every year).  We play them 13 times in August and September.  If we don't at least break even, I don't like our chances.

 

Just realized the improbability of us breaking even in 13 games.

[JUGGERNAUT]

That analysis makes NO SENSE whatsoever. Here's why:

 

1) It completely ignores the impact a healthy Frank Thomas will have on this team when he returns. Whether that be June or July it's definitely going to impact the team's OBP & SLG as well HR, R, & RBI.

 

2) Next it doesn't bother to look at how Garland has performed in his career month to month. If Garland does fall back to earth it's going to be something that resembles his career m-2-m #'s. The same can be said for all the pitchers. FYI: Garland owns a 3.66 era in May over the last 3 yrs. It's traditionally his best month.

 

3) It completely ignores the bullpen changes.

05 SP era (2.84), RP era (3.83) vs 04 SP era (5.17), RP era (4.31)

Even if you make the claim the SP will fall back to earth to a 4 range era

there's no reason to believe the RP will get worse. If anything we can expect it to get better.

 

4) It completely ignores the defensive improvements. Do I need to tell you were the White Sox ranked in DP's last year? They rank in the top 5 this year.

 

5) It completely ignores the intangibles (SB's, SH's, & SF's). Again all categories in which the White Sox are among the leaders this year & were no where close to that last year.

 

6) It ignores what the team is doing in RON situations.

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batt...Type=2&type=reg

RON .289A .325O .466S, 249AB, 76R, 72H 14DB, 10HR 116TB 71RBI, 19W, 16SB

 

Let me give you the season totals so far:

TOT .258A .298O .398S 643AB, 86R, 166H, 28DB, 1TP, 20HR, 256TB, 81RBI, 39W

 

It's pretty obvious looking at the stats & watching the games that this team is getting it done in RON situations. Why should we believe this won't continue?

 

7) The R leaders: PK 11 (OBP 329), AJ 10 (OBP 283), JC 10 (OBP 343), SP 9 (OBP 383), WH 6 (OBP 429)

 

8) The Sox are 4 gms up on the Twins & 7 gms up on Det, Cle.

You seem to have forgotten the miserable months of Jul & Aug in 04 when the Sox went 18W-28L. I didn't. If the Sox win 20 games in April that puts them on pace for 90 wins based on what they did the remaining 5 months in 04. There's no reason to believe they can't match that level of performance the rest of the way.

 

9) The Sox bench: 12 R, 5 RBI, 24 TB

Harris has 6 R in 19 AB. Best % on the team. He's not going any where & as a sub Ozzie's able to marginalize him vs LH. The results: .500 / 1.000 VS. RIGHT: .353 / .774

 

10) Marte - so far in Apr he's as tough vs RH as he is vs LH. That's evidence of Marte 2003 who was dominant in the AL.

 

They could concievably end Apr being 6 gms up on the Twins & 10 gms up on Det, Cle. Do you have any idea how hard it is for teams to make up 10 gms?

 

So I emphatically disagree with this HofC analysis. It's just pessimistic BS. This team is 15-4 because the team is getting it done in RON sits & has the talent to keep that going. I disagree with the fall to earth belief in the SP. You have to see evidence of that first. So far I see a staff that has been made substantially better playing behind a much better defense. I don't see reason to believe that will change to a .400 winning %.

 

And once again I will remind you of 1). As long as Frank is hitting on all cylinders going into Aug (when we play the Twins again) the White Sox are in no WAY going to post a .400 winning % in those final two months. By then they may have ridden this wave so high that Cle & Det can't hope to climb back into it.

 

There is only 1 thing that will keep this team out of the playoffs: injuries. As long as the team remains healthy it should make the playoffs & as you said it may be designed to win in the playoffs. The past ALCS winners have proven that you need power, pitching, & defense to get to the WS. The emphasis on power. If Thomas can be our version of Ortiz we have all 3.

Edited April 25, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[southsider2k5]

Not sure I'd be too quick to rate Detroit and Cleveland as weak, Besides the Sox, KC, and maybe the O's there isn't a 3-game series(good or bad) difference between the rest. In fact the NL is the same way. Parity is pretty much reigning everywhere but the southside.

 

Detroit makes way too many mental mistakes and problems in the field. Their pitching staff is still really young, and not quite there yet. Without Ordonez in the line up they field a pretty mediocre offense.

 

Clevelands staff can best be desribed as a house of cards. They are already having injury problems, and their bullpen is still bad and on top of it injury prone. The offense is packed with a bunch of guys who had career years, which they may not duplicate. Plus they lost their heart and soul in Omar, and I think it is showing early on.

[Al Lopez Ghost (old)]

You have the right to wonder about the future, but I don't understand your analysis of what's already happened. You say that for the most part the newcomers have been "pedestrian". Then you point out our terrific team ERA. Seems to me the newcomers have been a large part of that team ERA. Simply put our rotation 1-5 is way way way better than it has been in recent years. AJ has been a big improvement behind the plate. He has "stolen" several key outs with called 3rd strikes already. Iguchi is hitting over .300 and I haven't noticed any defensive deficiencies. You could even call an in-shape Everett a weapon we didn't have last year.

 

The future? We're gonna cool off, that's for sure. But your best way to avoid prolonged slumps (you have us playing .400 ball???) is to have consistent starting pitching, catch the ball, and let the opponent beat himself. We seem to be pretty good at those things.

 

That's why I'm optimistic, and why this team has surprised us so much.

[Queen Prawn]

To be honest, I refuse to let myself analyze at this time what the Sox have done already and what might happen later on down the line. I want to enjoy this while I can.

 

Will things change? More than likely. I will deal with that then.

[santo=dorf]

You tell him Juggs!

[Grebeck Fan Club]

I'm going to enjoy the start. The Sox will compete with the Twins all year for division supremecy. What else is new?

[Cerbaho-WG]

That analysis makes NO SENSE whatsoever. Here's why:

 

1) It completely ignores the impact a healthy Frank Thomas will have on this team when he returns.  Whether that be June or July it's definitely going to impact the team's OBP & SLG as well HR, R, & RBI.

 

2) Next it doesn't bother to look at how Garland has performed in his career month to month.  If Garland does fall back to earth it's going to be something that resembles his career m-2-m #'s.  The same can be said for all the pitchers. FYI:  Garland owns a 3.66 era in May over the last 3 yrs.  It's traditionally his best month. 

 

3) It completely ignores the bullpen changes. 

05 SP era (2.84), RP era (3.83) vs 04 SP era (5.17), RP era (4.31)

Even if you make the claim the SP will fall back to earth to a 4 range era

there's no reason to believe the RP will get worse.  If anything we can expect it to get better.

 

4) It completely ignores the defensive improvements.  Do I need to tell you were the White Sox ranked in DP's last year?  They rank in the top 5 this year.

 

5) It completely ignores the intangibles (SB's, SH's, & SF's).  Again all categories in which the White Sox are among the leaders this year & were no where close to that last year.

 

6) It ignores what the team is doing in RON situations.

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batt...Type=2&type=reg

RON .289A .325O .466S,  249AB,  76R, 72H 14DB, 10HR 116TB 71RBI, 19W, 16SB

 

Let me give you the season totals so far:

TOT .258A .298O .398S 643AB, 86R, 166H, 28DB, 1TP, 20HR, 256TB, 81RBI, 39W

 

It's pretty obvious looking at the stats & watching the games that this team is getting it done in RON situations.  Why should we believe this won't continue?

 

7) The R leaders: PK 11 (OBP 329), AJ 10 (OBP 283), JC 10 (OBP 343), SP 9 (OBP 383), WH 6 (OBP 429)

 

8) The Sox are 4 gms up on the Twins & 7 gms up on Det, Cle.

You seem to have forgotten the miserable months of Jul & Aug in 04 when the Sox went 18W-28L.  I didn't.  If the Sox win 20 games in April that puts them on pace for 90 wins based on what they did the remaining 5 months in 04.  There's no reason to believe they can't match that level of performance the rest of the way.

 

9) The Sox bench: 12 R, 5 RBI, 24 TB

Harris has 6 R in 19 AB.  Best % on the team.  He's not going any where & as a sub Ozzie's able to marginalize him vs LH. The results:  .500 / 1.000 VS. RIGHT: .353 / .774

 

10) Marte - so far in Apr he's as tough vs RH as he is vs LH.  That's evidence of Marte 2003 who was dominant in the AL.

 

They could concievably end Apr being 6 gms up on the Twins & 10 gms up on Det, Cle.  Do you have any idea how hard it is for teams to make up 10 gms?

 

So I emphatically disagree with this HofC analysis.  It's just pessimistic BS.  This team is 15-4 because the team is getting it done in RON sits & has the talent to keep that going.  I disagree with the fall to earth belief in the SP.  You have to see evidence of that first.  So far I see a staff that has been made substantially better playing behind a much better defense.  I don't see reason to believe that will change to a .400 winning %.

 

And once again I will remind you of 1).  As long as Frank is hitting on all cylinders going into Aug (when we play the Twins again) the White Sox are in no WAY going to post a .400 winning % in those final two months.  By then they may have ridden this wave so high that Cle & Det can't hope to climb back into it.

 

There is only 1 thing that will keep this team out of the playoffs: injuries.  As long as the team remains healthy it should make the playoffs & as you said it may be designed to win in the playoffs.  The past ALCS winners have proven that you need power, pitching, & defense to get to the WS.  The emphasis on power.  If Thomas can be our version of Ortiz we have all 3.

 

Thanks for the critcism, Jugg, now let me debunk it.

 

1) We're assuming that Thomas does come back in July in the first place and that he shows no ill effects from the injury. I think it's a little naive to assume that Thomas will but up a .400 OBP this year, as it will obviously take time to adjust back to playing everyday after not being able to swing a bat for almost 9 months. I'm expecting around a .370 OBP which won't buoy the Sox's total OBP as you imply.

 

2) If Garland falls back to Earth, that means he's going to start giving up runs very soon. Garland has shown the statistical trend of increasing his walks, decreasing his strikeouts and increasing his H/9. Assuming, and this is a big assumption, that Garland reverts to our old "give up 5 runs in one inning" Joe, he'll be par for the course. But then again, as you and others point out, he could just flourish this season. If Esteban Loaiza can, why not Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, etc.?

 

3) If the starting rotation starts giving up runs, ceteris parabis, we'll lose games. We're winning one run ballgames and if the starters give up more runs, we'll lose. Simple as that.

 

4) Defensive improvements? Podsednik, while fast, can't take a route on a ball to save his life. Dye isn't that great defensively. Juan Uribe, while being a good defender, isn't as good as Jose Valentin (errors aren't the only defensive stat, remember). Crede isn't great at 3B, Konerko is borderline immobile, etc. etc. The DPs have been luck, nothing else, nothing more.

 

5) OBP doesn't ignore SF's and SH's. I also know that the Sox are running themselves out of opportunities by leading the AL and perhaps MLB in caught stealing.

 

6) It's assumption as is my analysis. Prior statistics back me up, though. Do you honestly believe that Joe Crede will hit .300? Doubt it.

 

You seem to ignore the fact that the Sox have choked down the stretch for the past several years, and the current team may or may not show the same attributes. The Sox bench is putrid, I don't understand your argument when Timo Perez, Ross Gload and Chris Widger get playing time. Out machines.

 

I find it kind of ironic when you call my analysis bulls*** when anyone can look at our ramblings and get nothing out of it. You can quote obscure Sagarin ratings as much as you like, but your analysis is no better or worse than mine. That's up for other people, and history, to decide.

[Steff]

To be honest, I refuse to let myself analyze at this time what the Sox have done already and what might happen later on down the line.  I want to enjoy this while I can. 

 

Will things change?  More than likely.  I will deal with that then.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I find it kind of ironic when you call my analysis bulls*** when anyone can look at our ramblings and get nothing out of it. You can quote obscure Sagarin ratings as much as you like, but your analysis is no better or worse than mine. That's up for other people, and history, to decide.

 

[The Critic]

My thoughts:

First and foremost, the Sox didn't make the schedule. You play who they put in front of you. The Sox had more than their share of trouble with Detroit when the Tigers were MUCH worse than they are right now, so success against bad teams is NOT a given for the Sox.

A good start can snowball as much as a bad start can. The team gets accustomed to winning, believes it CAN win and it rolls on from there. Then you win a few games against teams you're not "supposed to beat" and the confidence builds. It's happened before.

This start is a nice message to send to those 3 teams who many "experts" predicted to finish ahead of the Sox.

Konerko's average is low, Rowand and Dye haven't hit at all yet, and Uribe's still down.

There's plenty to be optimistic about if that's the direction you want to go, just as the pessimism can be justified if that's where you're looking.

We shall see in time. It'll be a good test to see how they handle Oakland. Of course, there is fuel for the pessimists there, too, but given how much trouble the Sox have had out West, I'll be VERY pleased if the Sox take 2 of 3.

[Yossarian]

This is a blog piece written by me of all people, and is not placed "In the search of Sox blogs category" because of my hyperoffensive stuff that is below my post.

 

Read up, it's the first posting, and of course comments are welcome.

 

http://cerb.unked.net

Hey Cerb, why don't you tell us how you really feel? Seriously I think you're a talented and creative writer, if a little rough around the edges. The culture in general, and your generation in particular are more "in your face" these days, but you write very well nevertheless IMHO. About the Sox. I share your concerns and it's not lost on me that KC started at 16-3 2 years ago. Now look at them. Hopefully, that won't happen to us, and I don't think it will. Still, I find many of your criticisms and reservations well taken. The White Sox lineup is very ordinary and I don't think Frank Thomas is coming back any time soon, if at all this year. I do have a little more faith in and appreciation for our team defense and pitching. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jon Garland is finally going to turn into the pitcher we all hoped he would be. Buerhle and Garcia should remain solid. I worry about our two aging Cuban pitchers (their listed ages notwithstanding). The bullpen should be above average, and hopefully Ozzie got that one bad game out of his system when he burned up his relief corps against Cleveland. I don't think our defense is great, but it shouldn't be a major weakness, despite 4 errors against KC. I find it interesting that you criticize Pods about taking the best route to a fly ball. Didn't just about everyone say the same thing about the dearly departed Carlos Lee? I'm enjoying the teams fast start. I'm old enough to remember the 59 World Series and would like to see the Sox in another one before, well you know what I mean. Speaking of us old farts, don't be so hard on 50 somethings looking for dates. Hopefully when you're that age you won't have look for a Hannidate for whatever passes for one at that time.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Hey Cerb, why don't you tell us how you really feel? Seriously I think you're a talented and creative writer, if a little rough around the edges. The culture in general, and your generation in particular are more "in your face" these days, but you write very well nevertheless IMHO. About the Sox. I share your concerns and it's not lost on me that KC started at 16-3 2 years ago. Now look at them. Hopefully, that won't happen to us, and I don't think it will. Still, I find many of your criticisms and reservations  well taken. The White Sox lineup is very ordinary and I don't think Frank Thomas is coming back any time soon, if at all this year. I do have a little more faith in and appreciation for our team defense and pitching. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jon Garland is finally going to turn into the pitcher we all hoped he would be. Buerhle and Garcia should remain solid. I worry about our two aging Cuban pitchers (their listed ages notwithstanding). The bullpen should be above average, and hopefully Ozzie got that one bad game out of his system when he burned up his relief corps against Cleveland. I don't think our defense is great, but it shouldn't be a major weakness, despite 4 errors against KC. I find it interesting that you criticize Pods about taking the best route to a fly ball. Didn't just about everyone  say the same thing about the dearly departed Carlos Lee?  I'm enjoying the teams fast start. I'm old enough to remember the 59 World Series and would like to see the Sox in another one before, well you know what I mean. Speaking of us old farts, don't be so hard on 50 somethings looking for dates. Hopefully when you're that age you won't have look for a Hannidate for whatever passes for one at that time. 

 

If I'm ever on Hannidate, I give anyone the permission to kill me.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

If I'm ever on Hannidate, I give anyone the permission to kill me.

 

That was some mean-spirited s***...

[JUGGERNAUT]

I find it kind of ironic when you call my analysis bulls*** when anyone can look at our ramblings and get nothing out of it. You can quote obscure Sagarin ratings as much as you like, but your analysis is no better or worse than mine. That's up for other people, and history, to decide.

 

There's a big difference. Yours is based ALMOST entirely on your subjective opinion.

It practically ignores stats entirely.

 

Show me statistically where Valentin in past yrs has proven to be a better SS than Uribe has this year. Subjectively I think Uribe's arm is substantially better than Jose's & that's the main reason we are turning the DP's. It's not luck. It's talent. Uribe's current pace will exceed Val's in both DP's & assists.

 

As for Thomas, his impact is felt not just in OBP but the number of pitches he consumes & the quality of pitches he consumes. He's one of the toughest outs in MLB (statistically supported fact) & that helps everyone in the lineup.

 

Nothing you said about Garland changes the fact that for his career he is a 3.66 era

pither in May. That again is a statistically supported fact. So if he's going to balloon like you believe he is it would occur in the warmer months. No one is expecting him to have 20 wins like E-LO. But right now his pitching has been bolstered by solid defense that has allowed him to get out of jams. I don't see any reason to believe that will change. So whether he falls to Earth will depend on whether he can keep the ball down & prevent HRs.

 

Now to suddenly extend this fall to Earth scenario to the rest of the rotation is irrational. Look at the m-2-m #'s for Garcia & Buerhle. They are good for 25 winnable starts a year. That's a statistical fact. Hernandez is a wild card because of health but BMac promises more in recovery than we've seen in several yrs. Contreras statistically defies his talent. So why should I believe it's more likely he will fall than rise?

 

As for the defensive improvements they are pretty clear to any one who watches the games. Pods has more range in LF than Lee did. Pods has enough speed & experience to sub for Rowand in CF. An option we did not have in yr's past. You are the only person I think on the planet who does not believe that Dye is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league. Again his arm is substantially better than Maggs. You're comparison of Val to Uribe is insane. Unless you are referring to Val of 2000. Any one who bothers to watch most of the games knows that Crede is one the best 3B for getting outs on anything hit in front of him. There is no one better. His weakness has been anything hit near or past the bag & so far this year he has looked better than past years. As for Konerko his arm is better than most & he's made some good stops in past yrs & this yr. You undervalue him defensively.

 

Now I can prove all this by posting ZR numbers for all of these players & compare them to the rest in the ALC but it's much easier to comment on how they play in the field. All Sox fans can see that.

 

As for the bench what matters most are the R, RBI, & TB. They are producing as I indicated above. It's useless to look at overall stats because bench players are used mostly in situations & matchups.

 

vs LH: Ozuna (.333A .333O .444S) , vs RH: Harris (.353A .421O .353S)

That's why both are likely to remain after Thomas returns.

The team as a whole:

vs LH: .297A .306O .428S, vs RH: .248A .296O .390S

 

The team is 15-4 because of talent. Luck has been on their side but it doesn' t generate back to back hits to drive in the tying & winning run like it did on Sun.

That's talent.

[kapkomet]

There's a big difference.  Yours is based ALMOST entirely on your subjective opinion.

It practically ignores stats entirely. 

 

You, on the other hand, have a statisical score for the exactness of the rolls on a pile of dogs*** on a sidewalk. I bet you count the # of times it bounces when it hits.

 

How about a happy medium?

 

Edited April 25, 2005 by kapkomet

[JUGGERNAUT]

Let me make this perfectly clear for the pessimists. The Sox are 15-4 because this team has much better arm strength & control than previous yrs. That is obvious in the rotation, the bullpen & most important of all the infield. Crede, Uribe, & Iggy all have solid & accurate arms to fire rockets to get outs. That's what's been evident in the first 19 gms.

 

The intangibles that you choose to chalk up to luck:

DP's (8th), Assists (6th), SB (6th), SH (8th), SF (1st), GIDP (30th), LOB (28th). The last two are the ones you want to be last in They rank better than any other ALC team in every one of those categories.

 

Offensively we rank 15th in TB (better than all other ALC teams). Despite the fact that

1/2 of the team is hitting below their career & 3 yr avg's & the other 1/2 is hitting above them. So if you are going to argue statistically against the upper 1/2 then you have to make the same argument for the lower 1/2. The net result should be better than what we're producing now because of the AB's & expected playing time of those players.

 

Now if you want to believe it's luck go right ahead. I prefer to believe that this is what KW & the OZ hoped for when they made the changes they did over the past year & half.

Edited April 25, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[KevHead0881]

Funny, a stranger would come to this board and have no clue this was a fan site for a 15-4 team.

 

So goes the fandom of a team that hasn't won anything in 88 years, where pessimism reigns supreme.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

There's a big difference.  Yours is based ALMOST entirely on your subjective opinion.

It practically ignores stats entirely. 

 

Show me statistically where Valentin in past yrs has proven to be a better SS than Uribe  has this year. Subjectively I think Uribe's arm is substantially better than Jose's & that's the main reason we are turning the DP's.  It's not luck.  It's talent.  Uribe's current pace will exceed Val's in both DP's & assists.

 

As for Thomas, his impact is felt not just in OBP but the number of pitches he consumes & the quality of pitches he consumes.  He's one of the toughest outs in MLB (statistically supported fact)  & that helps everyone in the lineup. 

 

Nothing you said about Garland changes the fact that for his career he is a 3.66 era

pither in May.  That again is a statistically supported fact.  So if he's going to balloon like you believe he is it would occur in the warmer months. No one is expecting him to have 20 wins like E-LO.  But right now his pitching has been bolstered by solid defense that has allowed him to get out of jams.  I don't see any reason to believe that will change.  So whether he falls to Earth will depend on whether he can keep the ball down & prevent HRs.

 

Now to suddenly extend this fall to Earth scenario to the rest of the rotation is irrational.  Look at the m-2-m #'s for Garcia & Buerhle. They are good for 25 winnable starts a year.  That's a statistical fact.  Hernandez is a wild card because of health but BMac promises more in recovery than we've seen in several yrs.  Contreras statistically defies his talent.  So why should I believe it's more likely he will fall than rise?

 

As for the defensive improvements they are pretty clear to any one who watches the games.  Pods has more range in LF than Lee did.  Pods has enough speed & experience to sub for Rowand in CF.  An option we did not have in yr's past.  You are the only person I think on the planet who does not believe that Dye is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league.  Again his arm is substantially better than Maggs.  You're comparison of Val to Uribe is insane.  Unless you are referring to Val of 2000. Any one who bothers to watch most of the games knows that Crede is one the best 3B for getting outs on anything hit in front of him.  There is no one better.  His weakness has been anything hit near or past the bag & so far this year he has looked better than past years.  As for Konerko his arm is better than most & he's made some good stops in past yrs & this yr.  You undervalue him defensively.

 

Now I can prove all this by posting ZR numbers for all of these players & compare them to the rest in the ALC but it's much easier to comment on how they play in the field.  All Sox fans can see that.

 

As for the bench what matters most are the R, RBI, & TB.  They are producing as I indicated above.  It's useless to look at overall stats because bench players are used mostly in situations & matchups.

 

vs LH: Ozuna (.333A .333O .444S) , vs RH: Harris (.353A  .421O .353S)

That's why both are likely to remain after Thomas returns.

The team as a whole:

vs LH: .297A .306O .428S, vs RH:  .248A .296O .390S

 

The team is 15-4 because of talent.  Luck has been on their side but it doesn' t generate back to back hits to drive in the tying & winning run like it did on Sun.

That's talent.

 

[southsider17]

Lip is that you? 

 

 

LOL!

[upnorthsox]

....Show me statistically where Valentin in past yrs has proven to be a better SS than Uribe has this year. Subjectively I think Uribe's arm is substantially better than Jose's & that's the main reason we are turning the DP's. It's not luck. It's talent. Uribe's current pace will exceed Val's in both DP's & assists.

.....

 

Since 2001, Jose has 370 DP's in 499 games at SS or .742 DP/gm

 

Uribe has 264 DP's in 354 games at SS or .745 DP/gm

 

That's hardly a significant statistical edge and could well fall within the realm of luck.

 

I'll compare their arms just as soon as I see Juan get to a ball deep in the hole and make a throw like Jose did often.

Edited April 25, 2005 by upnorthsox

[hammerhead johnson]

There's a big difference.  Yours is based ALMOST entirely on your subjective opinion.

It practically ignores stats entirely. 

 

Show me statistically where Valentin in past yrs has proven to be a better SS than Uribe  has this year. Subjectively I think Uribe's arm is substantially better than Jose's & that's the main reason we are turning the DP's.  It's not luck.  It's talent.  Uribe's current pace will exceed Val's in both DP's & assists.

 

As for Thomas, his impact is felt not just in OBP but the number of pitches he consumes & the quality of pitches he consumes.  He's one of the toughest outs in MLB (statistically supported fact)  & that helps everyone in the lineup. 

 

Nothing you said about Garland changes the fact that for his career he is a 3.66 era

pither in May.  That again is a statistically supported fact.  So if he's going to balloon like you believe he is it would occur in the warmer months. No one is expecting him to have 20 wins like E-LO.  But right now his pitching has been bolstered by solid defense that has allowed him to get out of jams.  I don't see any reason to believe that will change.  So whether he falls to Earth will depend on whether he can keep the ball down & prevent HRs.

 

Now to suddenly extend this fall to Earth scenario to the rest of the rotation is irrational.  Look at the m-2-m #'s for Garcia & Buerhle. They are good for 25 winnable starts a year.  That's a statistical fact.  Hernandez is a wild card because of health but BMac promises more in recovery than we've seen in several yrs.  Contreras statistically defies his talent.  So why should I believe it's more likely he will fall than rise?

 

As for the defensive improvements they are pretty clear to any one who watches the games.  Pods has more range in LF than Lee did.  Pods has enough speed & experience to sub for Rowand in CF.  An option we did not have in yr's past.  You are the only person I think on the planet who does not believe that Dye is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league.  Again his arm is substantially better than Maggs.  You're comparison of Val to Uribe is insane.  Unless you are referring to Val of 2000. Any one who bothers to watch most of the games knows that Crede is one the best 3B for getting outs on anything hit in front of him.  There is no one better.  His weakness has been anything hit near or past the bag & so far this year he has looked better than past years.  As for Konerko his arm is better than most & he's made some good stops in past yrs & this yr.  You undervalue him defensively.

 

Now I can prove all this by posting ZR numbers for all of these players & compare them to the rest in the ALC but it's much easier to comment on how they play in the field.  All Sox fans can see that.

 

As for the bench what matters most are the R, RBI, & TB.  They are producing as I indicated above.  It's useless to look at overall stats because bench players are used mostly in situations & matchups.

 

vs LH: Ozuna (.333A .333O .444S) , vs RH: Harris (.353A  .421O .353S)

That's why both are likely to remain after Thomas returns.

The team as a whole:

vs LH: .297A .306O .428S, vs RH:  .248A .296O .390S

 

The team is 15-4 because of talent.  Luck has been on their side but it doesn' t generate back to back hits to drive in the tying & winning run like it did on Sun.

That's talent.

 

Is it just me, or is JUGGERNAUT schoolin' dudes something fierce this afternoon? My God.

 

I know that you're stubborn to the point where you piss a lot of people off around these parts, but you definitely have your moments. Keep up the good work.

[KipWellsFan]

Whoa good stuff from both Juggs and Cerb.