BCS to open automatic bids to all conferences

[greasywheels121]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2048224&num=0

 

Automatic bids won't be limited to six conferences

Associated Press

 

PHOENIX -- The Bowl Championship Series is opening up its automatic bids to all Division I-A conferences, starting with the 2007 season, and under a new plan the leagues will now be judged from top to bottom.

 

Currently, only the six conferences that formed the BCS could earn an automatic bid to college football's four major bowl games, including the national title game.

 

The previous standard for holding on to automatic qualification was based on the average BCS standings finish over a four-year period of a conferences' top team in the rankings. That will still be a factor, but not the only one.

 

"In addition, we will look at a conference's overall strength," BCS coordinator Kevin Weiberg said Wednesday, the final day of meetings with officials from 11 major college football conferences and Notre Dame's athletic director.

 

The BCS will also take into account the number of teams in a conference that finish in the BCS top 25 over a four-year period.

 

In addition, there is a proposed appeals process if a conference doesn't match up with the others under the new formula but still believes it belongs in the BCS.

 

"We're set through the first two years [2005-06] of the new agreement, with the same six conferences having the automatic-qualification berths," said Weiberg, the Big 12 commissioner. "This evaluation will then occur, and it could change for the final two years of this new agreement."

 

The BCS signed a four-year deal with Fox to televise the Sugar, Fiesta and Orange bowls from 2007-10 and the national title game from 2007-09. The Rose Bowl has its own television deal with ABC.

 

Weiberg said the new evaluation system could lead to more -- or less -- automatic bids.

 

The Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, Southeastern, Atlantic Coast and Big East champions have had automatic entry into the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta bowls since the BCS was implemented in 1998.

 

Other standards were set to allow teams from outside the BCS conferences to qualify automatically, but not until last year when Utah earned a spot in the Fiesta Bowl had a team from outside one of the big six conferences played in the BCS.

 

The BCS also decided to expand to five games last year. Starting with the 2006 season, 10 teams will qualify for the BCS, with the top two meeting in a newly created championship game to be played a week after the four major bowls.

 

The addition of another game and the new evaluation process for automatic entry were prompted by protests from the five lower-revenue conferences -- such as the Mountain West, where Utah plays, and Conference USA -- that the BCS was unfairly shutting out dozens of schools.

 

 

Of the original six BCS conferences, the Big East would appear to be most affected by the changes. The league lost Miami and Virginia Tech last season to the ACC; Boston College follows this year. However, the addition of Louisville this year, along with South Florida and Cincinnati, should help the Big East's chances of keeping its elite status.

 

Weiberg said Louisville, which finished 10th in the BCS standings last year while playing in C-USA, will be included in the Big East's evaluation and should help the league retain its bid.

 

"The reason for that is that we're trying to get an assessment looking forward of the prospective strength of the conference, even though it will be based on past performance," Weiberg said.

 

Beginning in 2006, Notre Dame will earn an automatic BCS berth with a top eight ranking in the final standings, Weiberg said. Also, under a new arrangement, Notre Dame is now guaranteed BCS money every season -- even when they don't play in a game.

 

In the past, Notre Dame would receive upward of $14 million when they played in a BCS game, but nothing if they didn't.

 

The proposal and others developed in Phoenix are subject to review by an 11-person committee formed by university presidents. Weiberg said that would be done in a teleconference call on May 12.

 

He said the athletic directors who met in Phoenix will do more teleconferencing and possibly have one more meeting to fine-tune proposals -- especially the makeup of the replacement poll to take the place of The AP poll in the new BCS standings formula -- before the Collegiate Commissioners Association meetings in Denver on June 20.

 

The new poll will not be unveiled until June at the earliest.

[Chisoxfn]

Hell, I didn't even know they were adding another game.

[Capn12]

All that, and the BCS is still a steaming pile of s***. What a joke of a "system" we have in place currently. So what is gonna replace the AP poll now? Is the Coaches Poll, you know the one where coaches don't have to make public their picks, and the wonderful 6 all-knowing computer combilations now gonna each make up 50% of the final BCS aggregate?

 

And Notre Dame gets an automatic entry to the BCS if they finish in the Top 8? And they get BCS money every year no matter what? ARE YOU f***ING KIDDING ME? Hi, lets reward Notre Dame for wanting to greedily keep their share of bowl money and not join a conference, by giving them money every year!! Bulls***.

 

Scrap this s*** already NCAA...oh wait, you are making way too much money to such a thing huh.

[ChWRoCk2]

until they come up with some sort of ncaa tourney system im not paying attention

[Fotop]

And Notre Dame gets an automatic entry to the BCS if they finish in the Top 8? And they get BCS money every year no matter what? ARE YOU f***ING KIDDING ME? Hi, lets reward Notre Dame for wanting to greedily keep their share of bowl money and not join a conference, by giving them money every year!! Bulls***.

 

 

 

Oops, looks like it's time for me to chime in. First off, ND gets an auto bid now if they are in the top 6 of the standings...I guarantee anytime in the past that ND would be in the top 6 if they were good enough to be 8th. Pollsters, the media, NCAA, favors ND because of the amount of buzz they generate. Just look at when they started the season undefeated in '02, everyone was in a frenzy. Not to mention their unbelieveably hard schedule gives them a huge advantage in the SOS category if they came even close to running the table. Therefore, there is little difference in the auto bid policy, whether they get an auto bid at top 6 or top 8. Seeing as though auto bids are now open to all conferences, it makes sense to adjust ND's situation accordingly.

 

The BCS money thing is a joke, and me saying this doesn't mean I agree with you. Let's run the numbers on this one knowing that under the old system ND gets something like a 14million dollar payday per BCS bowl and under the new system they get 1mil every year they don't make it but 4.5mil when they do, with 10million going to the other conferences:

 

Scenario: ND makes a BCS in 2 of 5 years (assuming they make the gator bowl in the other three: payout 1.6million)

 

Old System Payout

14million + 14million + 1.6million x3 = 32.8 million

 

New System Payout

4.5 Million + 4.5million + 1.6 million x3 + 1million x 3 (BCS yearly payout for not making it) = 16.8 million, wth 20 million dollars in kickbacks going to the major conferences (10 million split for each year ND makes a BCS)

 

Difference in payout = 32.8 - 16.8 = 16million (in favor of old)

 

Scenario: ND makes 1 BCS in 5 years (gator bowl, four years)

 

Old System

14million + 1.6millionx4 = 20.4 million

 

New System

4.5 million + 1million x 4 + 1.6 million x 4 = 14.9 million

 

Difference = 20.4 - 14.9 = 5.5 million (in favor of old)

 

Scenario: ND never makes a BCS in 5 years (gator bowl every year)

 

Old System

1.6million x 5 = 8 million

 

New System

1million x5 + 1.6 millionx5 = 13million

 

Difference in payout = 13-8 = 5million (in favor of new)

 

As you can pretty much see this is a sweetheart deal for the BCS. As much as anyone could hate ND, you can't think they won't make at least one BCS in the next five years. Looking at the numbers, the potential gain of the low end (No BCS) doesn't really cover the potential loss off the high end (2 BCS). Basically, ND gets screwed if they reutrn to excellence. The BCS covers their ass in this case, as well as the rest of the conferences (with the 10million kickback from ND making the BCS), and if ND doesn't make the BCS, 1million dollars is chicken-feed for the big, bad BCS.

 

As a Notre Dame fan, I could see this coming. When the first BCS contract was negotiated, ND had all the leverage because a BCS without ND is not credible at all. However, ND's recent fall from grace gives them less leverage in this new deal because the BCS could gamble on the fact that ND may not be good enough to be in the BCS in the future and exclude them if ND's demands are too high. You can't really say your system isn't credible without us when you haven't been to a BCS in a rather long time (2000). That's why this new deal favors the BCS, ND had no choice but to lay down for them. And this pretty much explains why the risk does not outweigh the reward for ND.

 

But what do I know, I'm just a little junior finance major at ND.

[ZoomSlowik]

Much as I hate to say it, nice post concerning the math of the new system. I think in reality the BCS is slowly trying to force ND into the Big East to give that conference more credibility, especially if they are going to keep their autobid.

 

I'm not so sure that they'll make the BCS once every 5 years if they keep playing the kind of schedule they've had the last few years. Michigan and USC are locks on their schedule, and they've played Tennessee and FSU for the last few years now. Not only do they have to get a split at worst against those teams, but it makes it a little tougher to win those games sandwiched in between those games. Oh well, works for me.

 

With apologies to the previous poster, :finger ND.

[Fotop]

I only used five years because I figured that's how long this incarnation of the BCS would last. Since it doesn't go into effect until the season after next, ND will be beginning to turn it's program around. With that being said, the sechedule is also getting tweaked in the near future with less powerhouse teams being put on the schedule, but no schools like Western Michigan or Troy either. ND is looking to schedule quality name, big conference schools that they expect to beat yearly. This will help the SOS part, and ultimately it's highly concivable to think they'll make at least one BCS in the five year time frame predicted (2006-2011).

[T R U]

until they come up with some sort of ncaa tourney system im not paying attention

 

Playoffs in College Football would be stupid... The Bowl Games are awesome, I dont wanna see some cinderella team make a run in the playoffs.. I like how one loss can f*** your season..

 

No playoffs... just try to polish up the BCS and were good to go..

[orangekrush88]

So there is no playoff system yet? Don't care, they won't get it right until there is SOME kind of playoff, wether it be 4 teams, or 8, I don't care they NEED one.

[Capn12]

there is a happy medium that COULD be reached involving Bowl games AND a playoff...but its not gonna happen.

 

As for the Notre Dame part, While I certainly appreciate the analytical look that was given, the thing that doesn't sit well with me is the whole "We deserve to be rewarded for turning our nose up at joining a conference" outlook. While it is definately not acceptable for the BCS to try and nudge Notre Dame into joining a conference, I also don't think they should be rewarded for staying independent either.

 

Does Central Florida get a cut of the BCS pie no matter what kind of season they have? Does Louisiana Tech? Thats the part that bothers me. And if someone says they deserve it because of their "Football tradition and history" I'm gonna :puke

 

Financial benefit for a 2005 college football season shouldn't be gained because back in 1990 the same program won a National Championship.

 

With that being said, the whole financial reward for conferences with winning teams is f***ed. Hell, what isnt f***ed up with the BCS? But this is what our major conferences voted to put in place, and for right now we have to sit and accept it.

[Fotop]

there is a happy medium that COULD be reached involving Bowl games AND a playoff...but its not gonna happen.

 

As for the Notre Dame part, While I certainly appreciate the analytical look that was given, the thing that doesn't sit well with me is the whole "We deserve to be rewarded for turning our nose up at joining a conference" outlook. While it is definately not acceptable for the BCS to try and nudge Notre Dame into joining a conference, I also don't think they should be rewarded for staying independent either.

 

Does Central Florida get a cut of the BCS pie no matter what kind of season they have? Does Louisiana Tech? Thats the part that bothers me. And if someone says they deserve it because of their "Football tradition and history" I'm gonna  :puke

 

Financial benefit for a 2005 college football season shouldn't be gained because back in 1990 the same program won a National Championship.

 

With that being said, the whole financial reward for conferences with winning teams is f***ed. Hell, what isnt f***ed up with the BCS? But this is what our major conferences voted to put in place, and for right now we have to sit and accept it.

 

 

The thing is, what you consider financial "benefit" is in essence a a financial loss for ND. They're not being rewarded here, so I don't see how they're turning their nose up at anyone, nor are they being rewarded for remaining independent. That's why I brought the numbers up, because sure on the face of this it looks like a sweet deal but when you crunch the numbers up it really isn't.

 

With that being said "football tradition and history" doesn't make them necessarily deserving of the money, however it gives them leverage in bargaining favorable deals. It gives them leverage to be able to remain independent and be in the BCS, and as much as anyone hates ND they still have to realize that they are a big part of college football because of "football tradition and history." Sure, they haven't won a national title since 1988 (you could argue they should have won in 93, but that's a different story all together), but they have their own tv contract (all games are televised nationally), and one of the largest followings/dedicated fan bases in all of college football. All of that was built on "football tradition and history" and today it means one thing: $$$$.

 

Really, what it comes down to is that on the surface this concept of being rewarded here seems vaild. However, when you look at it financially there's one reward here, and that is ND is being marginally covered for continuing to be an average team. The problem with this is, is the fact that ND will not just sit back and say "hey let's be average and take our free money." ND will have a top football program again, and when they do, they won't get what the used to get as a reward. Therefore, there's really no scenario in which this contract will allow ND to run laughing all the way to the bank because they don't put up with mediocre results, and when they do achieve their reward is not nearly as lucrative as it used to be.

 

Ultimately, the analytical look provided pretty much proves ND isn't turing their nose up at anyone...in fact they're putting their tail between their legs as they rebuild their program.

[Capn12]

Hmmm...good show Fotop! Less of my venom should be spewed towards Notre Dame, and all should be redirected towards the BCS committee methinks.

 

The 6 Computer rankings and the Coaches poll where we don't even know who voted what compromising teh complete statistical BCS outlook sickens me quite frankly....not that the AP poll was great, but it at least helped to keep the system a bit more in check because other inputs had lesser value into the equation.

[Fotop]

Agreed, the BCS is whacked. Frankly, I hate it, and really wish they could figure out a better way to determine a champion. I agree with you about the polls, especially since most are private. No one is really responsible if something gets messed up because you can't find the source.

 

In theory, the concept of a BCS "system" is feasible. However, we have learned over the past few years that it doesn't work in practice. Frankly, I don't know what they could do to fix it, and at this point I wouldn't be all that opposed to a playoff system which culminates in the major bowls hosting the semis/finals of the playoffs

 

Btw, thanks for the reduced hatred for ND...now if only I could get to more people on this...

[ZoomSlowik]

I really think they need to switch it to a 4 game playoff. You could use the same system, or use a committee to select the teams. I've thought about this for the last few years and it always seem to turn out that there are 4 teams that stand out above the rest of the teams. If you do 4 teams, you're going to have the absolute best teams going head to head in a playoff. There'd be no cinderellas, and a lot less controversy at the end of the year. It'd be like having the Final Four with the regular season serving as the previous 5 rounds of the tournament. Then you could still have your other bowls to appease the rest of the teams. I really think that could work out. The only minor problem I see is if there is one team that finishes the season undefeated and gets upset by a 1 or 2 loss team putting up a stink, but at least they'd be solving it on the field.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I disagree with this being a bad deal for ND & I'll tell you why. If they make a BCS bowl they earn $4.5M if they don't they earn $1M. That $1M is on top of anything they earn from being invited to a lesser bowl. It's guaranteed income yr after yr.

 

Now look at the qualifications for ND to make a BCS bowl:

1) top 8 in BCS ranking for automatic bid

2) top 12 in BCS ranking for possible bid

 

That means the bar is lower for them to make a bid.

 

Now the NBC deal is a 3 yr renewal deal. What's a BCS bowl bid worth towards that contract every 3 yrs? Probably worth an extra 1-2 million per yr in the next contract. Keep in mind NBC is NOT the only network that wants the IRISH. They all do. If Weis gets ND back to BCS caliber the $ will come in their Yankee like contract. If not they get $1M a yr regardless. It seems like a pretty good deal to me.

[Fotop]

Juggs, take a look at the numbers again...the risk-reward doesn't add up. Also, I fail to see how this is a good deal by what you're saying.

 

Ok, first let's be honest with ourselves here, ND gets guarenteed income every year right now. The lowest bowl they've been invited to was the insight bowl and that payout was just under a mil. So I don't see how "guaranteed income" every year outweighs the losses the potentially incur if they make a BCS (4.5 million instead of 14 million).

 

Also, the bar is practically the same for them to get into a BCS under the new rules in comparison to the old. ALL conferences can possibly make an auto-bid under the new contract, ND had to be adjusted accordingly to be fair. Like I said earlier as well, under any scenario in which ND was 8th in the BCS in the past, they'd probably find a way to get in a BCS bowl anyways with media favor/strength of schedule/potential income they could generate for the BCS. 8th "auto-bid" as well as the top 12 "possible" bid is basically what they get right now, especially considering the pool for auto-bids is larger now.

 

The final part of your argument really isn't that potent when you realize it's just as difficult for ND to get a BCS bid. ND needs 9 wins to make a BCS still, no doubt about it. Under the new system I find it hard to believe that they can lose three games and still make a BCS unless they lose to three powerhouse teams (8-3). BCS bids don't mean as much as ratings do to networks like NBC. Just having Weis at ND will increase those ratings because people want to see the new team. Until they prove they're top 10 caliber again, all of these potential suitors you think exist won't be lining up unless the ratings say otherwise. It's just bad business. With that being said, it's intuitive to believe that networks would pay more for higher ratings, with higher ratings being generated here in direct correlation to the product on the field.

 

So new BCS contract or no new BCS contract ND would get more money from their network contract if they play better and garner more interest. Pretty much making the discussion of network contracts irrelevant to whether or not this is a "good" deal or not. They would get the extra cash if they played better under any circumstances, plain and simple.

 

Therefore, I'll stand by my stance of that this contract is worse than the old contract in terms of financial benefit for ND. The numbers really aren't lying, at least to me, and the points you have created here don't really have much of an effect or are important to the bottom line.

[JUGGERNAUT]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7659924/

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/colleges/a...sirish0428.html

 

You're missing the biggest changes that GREATLY benefit the Irish.

1) The removal of the AP (media poll) from the BCS

2) The much greater emphasis on strength of conference

3) Only the Irish earn an automatic bid for a top 8 ranking.

4) Irish are being treated as a separate conference (basis of the $1M guaranteed, $4.5M max payout)

 

1) goes w/out saying. The writers poll has always weighed against the Irish. The replacement poll should be an improvement for them.

 

2) This is the biggest gain for the Irish. The Irish's 4 yr avg of SOS will represent their SOC value.

 

3) This only applies to the Irish. All others will be based on a conference's top team's BCS rankings over a 4 yr period. A conference has to have at least 1 team rank in the top 25 in the BCS each of the 4 yrs to have a chance at an automatic bid. That doesn't apply to the Irish. They can miss the top 25 3 of the 4 yrs & as long as they finish in the top 8 any given yr they earn an automatic berth. There is no conference that is guaranteed automatic bid qualification like the Irish.

 

Under the new format, Weiberg said a nine-win Notre Dame would automatically qualify if it ranks in the top 8 and would be eligible if it finished in the top 12.

 

Weiberg: "I think with these expanded at-large spots and this new structure, there's a feeling that if Notre Dame is available, they're going to be very popular to these bowls for possible selection."

 

Fiesta Bowl President John Junker: "Obviously, they're (ND) the top recognized brand name nationally. Other teams are loved and followed. But in all parts of the country, Notre Dame sets the standard."

 

4) With the addition of a 5th BCS bowl (NC the week following the 4 BCS games),

no one believes the max payout will approach $13M. Many believe it will fall to $10-11M.

 

Money:

ND made $13M over the last 7 yr of the BCS with 1 berth. ND would make $10.5M over the next 7 yrs of the BCS if it only earned 1 berth. It will make $14M if it earns 2 berths. The $13M is history for all schools. So realistically that $10.5M is what they would likely earn the next 7 yrs with just 1 appearance. It really was a no-brainer for them to agree to this deal.

 

The max payout for the top BCS team in a conference is expected to fall to $10-11M.

The max payout for the 2nd best BCS team in a conference is expected at $4.5M.

 

It's pretty clear with ND being the ONLY school having automatic berth eligibility every year that their odds have increased in getting a BCS bid.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Again, ND has the smallest TV contract of the major conferences. The duration of their contracts is twice that of ND. In any 3 yr period if ND were to win a NC or earn 2 BCS berths that would greatly enhance the value of their next 3 yr TV contract.

[Fotop]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7659924/

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/colleges/a...sirish0428.html

 

You're missing the biggest changes that GREATLY benefit the Irish.

1) The removal of the AP (media poll) from the BCS

2) The much greater emphasis on strength of conference

3) Only the Irish earn an automatic bid for a top 8 ranking. 

4) Irish are being treated as a separate conference (basis of the $1M guaranteed, $4.5M max payout)

 

1) goes w/out saying.  The writers poll has always weighed against the Irish.  The replacement poll should be an improvement for them.

 

2) This is the biggest gain for the Irish.  The Irish's 4 yr avg of SOS will represent their SOC value.

 

3) This only applies to the Irish.  All others will be based on a conference's top team's BCS rankings over a 4 yr period.  A conference has to have at least 1 team rank in the top 25 in the BCS each of the 4 yrs to have a chance at an automatic bid.  That doesn't apply to the Irish.  They can miss the top 25 3 of the 4 yrs & as long as they finish in the top 8 any given yr they earn an automatic berth.  There is no conference that is guaranteed automatic bid qualification like the Irish.

 

Under the new format, Weiberg said a nine-win Notre Dame would automatically qualify if it ranks in the top 8 and would be eligible if it finished in the top 12.

 

Weiberg: "I think with these expanded at-large spots and this new structure, there's a feeling that if Notre Dame is available, they're going to be very popular to these bowls for possible selection."

 

Fiesta Bowl President John Junker: "Obviously, they're (ND) the top recognized brand name nationally. Other teams are loved and followed. But in all parts of the country, Notre Dame sets the standard."

 

4) With the addition of a 5th BCS bowl (NC the week following the 4 BCS games),

no one believes the max payout will approach $13M.  Many believe it will fall to $10-11M. 

 

Money:

ND made $13M over the last 7 yr of the BCS with 1 berth. ND would make $10.5M over the next 7 yrs of the BCS if it only earned 1 berth.  It will make $14M if it earns 2 berths.  The $13M is history for all schools.  So realistically that $10.5M is what they would likely earn the next 7 yrs with just 1 appearance.  It really was a no-brainer for them to agree to this deal.

 

The max payout for the top BCS team in a conference is expected to fall to $10-11M.

The max payout for the 2nd best BCS team in a conference is expected at $4.5M.

 

It's pretty clear with ND being the ONLY school having automatic berth eligibility every year that their odds have increased in getting a BCS bid.

 

Ok, I'm really not going to say much more on this because my stance has been laid out pretty clearly. But let's run down your four points you say "greatly" favors the Irish:

 

1) extremely subjective as to how this GREATLY helps the irish. The irish have just as many shills in the AP as they do haters. Really, there's no histirocial evidence as to how this will either benefit or hurt the irish, so in terms of whether or not the irish would think this is a "good" deal before signing on the dotted line, I find it hard to believe this would be really important in their decision.

 

2) The Irish have already announced that they're going to soften schedule in the near future (i think the season after next). Therefore, their SOS average wouldn't really benefit them all that greatly once that kicks in. However, I think it will be someone significant and they aren't dependent on any conference for this factor, so that in itself is a strength.

 

3) Frankly this is irrelevant in discussing this deal and the old deal, because it's effectively the same under both deals. I've said this multiple times and I stand by it, and if your problem is with the irish being written in the auto-bid policy then your problem runs all the way to the beginning of the existence of the BCS, not the new deal.

 

4) The irish have already been treated as a seperate conference. This was like this in the old contract, but the new contract has the $1million guaranteed and the 4.5million payout. I've already discussed this extensively, and in respect to the old contract you can see how this doesn't favor the irish at all. (5 bowls is part of the new contract, currently the payout is 14million for the 4 bowls.) Also, what you fail to mention is that when the Irish do reach the BCS, the major conferences get the share of the rest of the money the Irish don't get. In essence, the major conferences are getting paid every year as well, because when they don't make it, certainly the Irish will, except in an extremely odd year.

 

Money: look at the earlier post, the 13-14million didn't have to be history, the new bowl is part of the new deal as a whole, so its something that has to be considered about the new deal. The new deal has nothing to do with retoractively comparing the old and new when trying to decide whether to sign off on this contract or not. About the odds increasing for getting an auto-bid, I maintain that the increase ND gains by two extra spots in the BCS is marginal when considering auto-bids are open to all conferences now.

 

About the TV contract, they're going to get more money if they do well regardless of the BCS. Really, this argument is peripheral because ND isn't going to accept being average and will be compesated for raising their program. BCS bowl, no BCS bowl, 9 and 10 win seasons are 9 and 10 win seasons, no one can deny that...and neither will the ratings. So I don't really see how gaining a BCS bowl will significantly alter their contract, because without it and the same record they'd probably receive the same compensation.

 

Ultimately time will tell about this deal, but I certainly think it's far from a no-brainer or a slam-dunk for ND.

[JUGGERNAUT]

You're just not getting this.

 

1) Impact of AP poll being removed. It's not subjective at all. You simply have to compare where ND ranked in the computer poll vs the AP poll & the Coaches poll & it's pretty clear the AP poll was the weakest element for the Irish since the BCS was formed.

 

2) It remains to be seen whether the Irish will weaken their SOS any worse than any other teams. They are committed to Big 10, Pac 10, Big East, ACC, SEC, & Big 12 commitments in the next BCS contract. If there is any room it's with BC leaving the Big East & the advent of the 12 game season. This will only play a role in terms of their annual BCS ranking.

 

3) It's obvious that you do not understand how the new conference based automatic bid qualification process works. It's anything but irrelevant when it applies to the Irish. The biggest difference is that in the old BCS

there were always 5 automatic majors slots, 1 ND slot (top 6), & 1 at-large. The new BCS could have as many as 7 automatic all conference slots or as few as 5. Add the ND slot (top 8), & between 2-4 at large slots.

Which means in a year where there are only 5 automatic conference slots, & ND doesn't finish in the top 8 in BCS ranking it still has 5 at large slots in which it can be picked for a BCS game.

 

That is a MAJOR difference between the old & the new. In a year where there are only 5 automatic conference bids ND as the best shot of any school to earn a BCS berth w/out finishing in the top 10 in BCS rankings

for that year. That is why even with a 12 gm schedule the belief is ND can earn a berth with 9 wins & a top 12 ranking. A huge difference from the old BCS.

 

How are automatic conference berths determined?

A) Avg of best team in conference in BCS rankings over 4 yr avg

B) Avg of ALL teams in conference in BCS rankings over 4 yr avg

 

Considering ALL the teams in a conference is again a major difference from the OLD BCS & favors the at-large teams. It's pretty obvious how this will work. I can work for you examples to show you how this works.

But it's simple to realize: ND is basically dependant on themselves while

all other schools are dependant on their conferences.

 

********************************************

OLD: There were 2 at-large bids for ND if it didn't finish top 6 in BCS.

NEW: There are no less than 3 at-large bids & at most 5 at large bids for ND if it doesn't finish top 8 in BCS.

That obviously increases ND's chances to make the BCS.

********************************************

 

Ex. Michigan (9-3) 2004. Last BCS ranking 13. With 5 BCS games an Irish ranking of 13 with a 9-3 record in a year where there are only 7 automatic bids earns them a berth. If their are 7 automatic bids they can still earn a berth with a ranking of 12. With their SOS last year a 9-3 record would have given them a ranking higher than 12.

 

4) You missed this point entirely. With the addition of the 5th BCS bowl & addition of two more teams the max payout for any 1 team is expected to be $10-$11M. That's based on the price FOX paid for the BCS games. It's fixed. So if the Irish have 1 BCS apperance over the next 7 yrs the most they would earn would be about $10.5M under the old contract. Under the new contract it's the same thing. $4.5+6M. That's why it's a no-brainer.

 

Now if you're going to argue the BCS TV contract will grow to where the max payout will grow back to $13M over the 5 gms then of course that would re-adjust the $4.5M figure as well. The Irish did not agree to dollar amounts. They agreed to stipulations. For a BCS berth they will earn the highest payout for the 2nd best team in a conference making the BCS.

If they don't earn a BCS berth, they will still earn the lowest payout for a team that is a member of a conference making the BCS.

 

Now the rest is pretty simple. The bar for making the BCS has been lowered for the Irish. The number of at-large berths in which TV rating strength plays a role has been increased. Therefore the probability of the Irish making the BCS more than once in the next 7 yrs has increased & the opportunity to make more than $13M in that time has increased as well.

 

5) Effect of the BCS on ND's next contract. It's simple. With FOX joining the BCS (in conjunction with their NFC NFL deal) during the same playoff months exposure to the BCS & of the BCS will expand. More networks will be covering college football than ever before. Whether you win 9 or 10 gms in a 12 gm season will mean far less than whether you appeared in a BCS bowl.

 

It's about TV ratings for the BCS bowl. The more ND is a part of those ratings the greater their value for thier home games. I'd go as far as to say I would wager on the Irish making millions more on the new TV & BCS deals than the old ones.

 

Ironically with the highest non-BCS bowl paying expected to pay out in upwards of $5M the Irish can make more by being picked for that game.

They were earn that games pay out plus the $1M from their BCS deal.

 

The bottom line is simple. If the Irish win 9 gms they should make the BCS. If they win 8 gms they can still make the best non-BCS payout.

That would earn them more than making the BCS.

[Fotop]

I don't really have time for any long winded posts anymore, got finals this week.

 

Anyways, I think I'm going to have to agree to disagree with you on this one. My analysis was based upon the old v. the new, in terms of bowl payouts it's right...the 14m in that equation is assuming they retain the old contract. Strictly based upon that there's a clear shift in where the lion's share of BCS money is going.

 

And with all of this other peripheral stuff, tv contracts, where new BCS bids go, etc, time will tell. Personally, I think 9 wins = BCS under either system. Not 9 wins = no BCS, basically. If ND would sneak in a BCS it'd be bulls***, and we'd get reamed in the media, but of course accept the bid.

 

Either way, I stick by what I originally said, because I find it hard to believe ND had any leverage in this negotiation where that had a decisive advantage. That's why I'm hesitant to say it's a great deal, in fact, a good deal at all.

 

Anyways, there's way too much s*** here now to sort through to continue this discussion...and frankly, I don't have the time. Either way, good show.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Some more to add, with the addition of Louisville & their high BCS ranking last yr the Big East secured their automatic bid for the next couple of years. It was in doubt but when they decided to average the new teams towards that 4 yr average they made the cut.

 

There will likely be 6 automatic conference bids over the next two years:

Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, ACC, SEC. No other conference has a strong enough 4 yr avg to earn an automatic bid. That leaves the 4 at-large bids for ND to compete for. A 9-3 record seems a like & an 8-4 record could pull the money makers their way. There's so much flexibility with the at-large bids that I'm sure if there is any argument that can be made for ND they'll make it.

 

The new poll (to replace the AP) has been rumored to be called the National Football Poll & is said to be made up of a panel of 65 voters all of whom are ex-coaches. That should favor ND as well.

 

The current NBC contract is worth $9M/yr through 2010. So it will expire shortly after the next BCS contract does. The next best contract is the SEC's. Paying about $50M a yr to 12 teams. A little over $4M/yr. Despite losing money on the last contract ESPN/ABC increased their ACC contract by $15M (T $38M) when Miami & VA Tech

joined. Miami & VA Tech are both paying the BE $1M to leave & the ACC $3M to join.

 

This has bearing on ND's next contract because it's a well known fact that ABC reported a loss on college football over the last contract. Said to have lost millions. Yet they increased the value by $15M/yr after Miami & Virginia Tech joined. What will ND's next contract be worth if they should win a NC & post a winning record over the next 5 yrs: $15-18M/yr?

Edited May 2, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[JUGGERNAUT]

Under the new BCS contract the 10-2 2002 ND team makes the BCS. Miami & not FL St would have earned the Auto bid for the ACC. ND would have beaten out the rest for at-large bids.