Neyer

[Soxfest]

Updated: April 29, 2005

 

 

White Sox living charmed life

By Rob Neyer

 

 

Here's why I don't believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their pitchers obviously can't keep pitching as well as they have.

 

The White Sox are 16-6 because 1) their pitching's been fantastic, and 2) they've been exceptionally good in one-run games, going 9-2.

 

There's not a lot to say about those close games; as I'm sure you know, if you go 9-2 in one-run games you've probably been more than a little lucky

 

Can they keep it up?

 

Career 2005 M Buehrle 3.76 3.89 J Contreras 4.85 3.48 F Garcia 3.94 2.83 J Garland 4.68 1.80 O Hernandez 3.96 2.35

 

Particularly when you consider that if you look past their ERAs, they haven't really pitched all that well. A number of other staffs have struck out and walked roughly the same number of hitters as the White Sox, but without the resulting ERA. They've pitched better than they are and they've been lucky. Reality will eventually bite, and when it does the White Sox will have a middle-of-the-road staff, perhaps a notch or two better.

 

Can they win that way? Not the way they're hitting. The White Sox currently sport a .311 on-base percentage

[YASNY]

To begin, the Sox aren't going to continue with their lack of production with the bats. To me, that's a given.

 

Secondly, if the Sox are walking and striking out hitters at a rate similar to others yet still winning then one of two things are happening ... they are playing better defensively than other teams, or our pitchers are coming though in the clutch. I think it's combination of both.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

The reason I don't give any merit to what writers write is because they NEVER admit to being wrong.

[YASNY]

The reason I don't give any merit to what writers write is because they NEVER admit to being wrong.

 

Neyer has done that, though. He admitted to forgetting about Dye as a Sox acquisition this past offseason. Sure, he blame his source, but accepted responsibility for not verifying.

[witesoxfan]

To begin, the Sox aren't going to continue with their lack of production with the bats.  To me, that's a given.

 

Secondly, if the Sox are walking and striking out hitters at a rate similar to others yet still winning then one of two things are happening ... they are playing better defensively than other teams, or our pitchers are coming though in the clutch.  I think it's combination of both.

 

Neyer is a stathead. Clutch, as in getting a clutch DP, is not really a documentable statistic(and I say not really because clutch factors are extremely subjective...case in point, Steve Finley last year in the article that santo posted a while back ago). Defense can be a really difficult to track statistically too, because the statistics can be skewed...such as Jose Valentin having the best zone rating last year and being in the top 5 for range factor. I love Jose, but I will admit that he is not one of the best defensive SS in the league defensively.

 

I still, of course, feel he is undervalued and underappreciated defensively though.

[YASNY]

Neyer is a stathead. Clutch, as in getting a clutch DP, is not really a documentable statistic(and I say not really because clutch factors are extremely subjective...case in point, Steve Finley last year in the article that santo posted a while back ago).  Defense can be a really difficult to track statistically too, because the statistics can be skewed...such as Jose Valentin having the best zone rating last year and being in the top 5 for range factor.  I love Jose, but I will admit that he is not one of the best defensive SS in the league defensively. 

 

I still, of course, feel he is undervalued and underappreciated defensively though.

 

Statheads don't know all there is to know about baseball. There is a place and a need for stats, but actually watching a player will tell you more than any stat. Some pitchers have a knack for getting that clutch DP, while others get that deer in the headlights look when they need to get that DP.

[witesoxfan]

Statheads don't know all there is to know about baseball.  There is a place and a need for stats, but actually watching a player will tell you more than any stat.  Some pitchers have a knack for getting that clutch DP, while others get that deer in the headlights look when they need to get that DP.

 

I feel the exact same way, and I'd consider myself a semi-stathead. I love using those types of stats and valuing players, but when it comes right down to it, the game is beyond stats.

 

The Twins have proved over the past 3-4 years exactly that. You would think they would stop being 'lucky' after a while, but at some point, that 'luck' is no longer luck, it is just something that happens.

[YASNY]

I feel the exact same way, and I'd consider myself a semi-stathead.  I love using those types of stats and valuing players, but when it comes right down to it, the game is beyond stats.

 

The Twins have proved over the past 3-4 years exactly that.  You would think they would stop being 'lucky' after a while, but at some point, that 'luck' is no longer luck, it is just something that happens.

 

I wonder who did more to prove the point, the Twins or White Sox?

[witesoxfan]

I wonder who did more to prove the point, the Twins or White Sox?

 

The Twins have. If I am understanding you correctly, and I think I am, they have gotten it done constantly in late-game situations, moreso than about any other team in the majors.

 

Of course, having as good and as deep of a bullpen as they have helps. When you can go into the 7th inning of a game knowing that you probably wont give up a run for the rest of the game unless it goes like 15 innings, your confidence at the plate goes way up...though, confidence, too, is not a trackable statistic

[YASNY]

My point was that the Sox have outperformed the Twins every year, I think, in the run differential stat and therefore should have one the division. So the Twins have, on the positive side, proven the game is beyond stats. The Sox, conversely, have proven it from a negative standpoint.

[jackie hayes]

My point was that the Sox have outperformed the Twins every year, I think, in the run differential stat and therefore should have one the division.  So the Twins have, on the positive side, proven the game is beyond stats.  The Sox, conversely, have proven it from a negative standpoint.

That's one statistic, not The Statistic. It doesn't "prove" that statistics in general are useless. And certainly noone claims that they have The Stat That Is Bigger Than Baseball. That's just spin.

 

The Twins pitching last year was unreal, in person and by the numbers -- by almost any measure.

 

Anyway, everyone's saying 'Oh, Neyer's a stathead' and using that to color his arguments without even looking at the argument, where he's not using any exotic stat whatsoever. He says the pitching has been spectacular (backs it up with that voodoo number "era") -- it has. Who can deny that? Meanwhile the hitting has been unimpressive. Is that in question?

 

While I'm confident the bats will pick up, I think this is a very fair analysis (if it's open to criticism, it would not be for use of rare statistical animals, but for being too obvious to be interesting). The gap between our starters' performances so far and their respective histories is larger than the performance/potential gap in the lineup. We ARE basing our success this year on the hope that Jon and Jose (at least) are better than their career stats. Neyer doesn't buy that, and that seems like a fair position. But we'll see.

[SoxFan562004]

A lot of these articles will be written if the Sox keep playing well since nobody picked them to win in the preseason, in fact a lot of people picked them 3rd. These guys job is to write about baseball, and right now the Sox are making them look real bad

[Princess Dye]

if we're honest with ourselves, we cant totally refute some of the things Neyer is saying

 

 

Garland is the one case on the staff where...career altering progress seems to have been made this offseason.

 

the other guys are going to be what they are.......

 

Buehrle is going to dominate some teams, get dominated by other teams

 

Garcia isnt what he once was, but is good enough to keep the team in games... same with Duque.

 

i suppose Contreras could still improve, but if we're watching the games, we know he hasnt been as lights-out as his ERA would have us believe

[Princess Dye]

i mean.... El Duque and Contreras have had great 'earned run games'.... but with high hits and walks, etc.

 

now, you can write that off to "great defense" or "clutchness" or whatever....... but if you're honest with yourself..... you know that their sub-3.00 ERAs do not mean the same thing as when Randy Johnson has a sub-300 ERA.

 

i'm not calling those escapes from jams "luck".... but enough of these 6 inning starts and the bullpen will have a shared dead arm in no time. i love what's been happening so far........ but to me, it's a bit much to christen this as a dominating staff. it just isnt.

 

 

this staff is deep, but it's just not one of those staff's that will carry a mediocre offense. we are going to have to start hitting if we plan on having Neyer be wrong.

Edited April 30, 2005 by Princess Dye

[Soxbadger]

The problem with Neyer's argument is that the games that he is comparing are not similar. We do not know how a certain pitcher got his 3.5 era, it is a combination of many different games. Maybe he gave up 9 in one start, and was dominant 3 others. You just can not tell by the numbers, and therefore comparing strike out and BB totals of a game do not really tell anything.

 

Maybe the pitcher gave up 4 runs when his team was already leading 7-0, that inflates his era, but he still is the winning pitcher.

 

If a pitcher is not giving up a lot of extra base hits, and the defense is turning double plays, you can give up 5+ hits a game and still come away with a shut out.

 

SB

Edited April 30, 2005 by Soxbadger

[Rex Hudler]

I agree with Neyer...... For the Sox to keep winning, something will have to change. The pitching will not remain this good.

 

So the onus really falls on the offense. If the offense improves enough to balance out the pitching, then they have a chance to keep winning.

 

He didn't really say how far he thought the pitching would drop off, but he insinuated it could be pretty large because of their career ERAs. If you break it down a little bit, I don't think the drop off will be that great. Garland while he will not finish with a 1.80 ERA should improve on his past performance. Young pitchers do mature and I think we are seeing that with Garland. Buehrle will be consistent and Freddy will migrate toward his career #'s somewhat, but an improved offense should help. Hernandez and Contreras are the wild cards. Both have dealt with either inconsistency or injury in the past.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing how May plays out...........

[JUGGERNAUT]

He completely ignores the fielding behind that pitching. I've pointed it out earlier. A big part of the 9-2 record in 1 run games is attributed to DPs & timely outs. I would say the timely outs have been more beneficial to the defense than the timely hits have been to the offense.

 

Assuming Uribe is back soon I don't see why that won't continue. It's not just Uribe's glove either. His contribution to the offense with SF's has been a major contribution to these games as well.

 

The fact is the Sox are riding a 3 game losing streak but they been w/out Uribe 2 of those last 3 games. This is a different team when he's playing.

His day-to-day value to this team right now makes him the MVP.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Neyer has done that, though.  He admitted to forgetting about Dye as a Sox acquisition this past offseason.  Sure, he blame his source, but accepted responsibility for not verifying.

 

 

I wish I could forget that we picked up Dead boy this offseason but every game he reminds me, rather painfully, with another rally killed.

[Big Hurtin]

Hi, new here.

 

Anyway, there is something that I haven't seen discussed in regards to the success of the pitching staff. That's the addition of Pierzynski. I remember reading an article early in the season where Ozzie said how no one wanted to pitch to Olivo. Is it possible that A.J. has worked with the pitchers better than the catchers last year?

[YASNY]

Hi, new here.

 

Anyway, there is something that I haven't seen discussed in regards to the success of the pitching staff.  That's the addition of Pierzynski.  I remember reading an article early in the season where Ozzie said how no one wanted to pitch to Olivo.  Is it possible that A.J. has worked with the pitchers better than the catchers last year?

 

Not only AJ, but Widger as well.

[Princess Dye]

He completely ignores the fielding behind that pitching.  I've pointed it out earlier.  A big part of the 9-2 record in 1 run games is attributed to DPs & timely outs.  I would say the timely outs have been more beneficial to the defense than the timely hits have been to the offense.

 

in Chris Rock voice: thats something youre sup-POSED to do.

 

solid fielding isnt something to put us over any teams..... it just brings us into an echelon of winners. you really think that great fielding will put us over Minnesota? all Neyer is saying is that Minnesota is tops right now, and i cant disagree.... unless we pick it up in several areas.

 

same with the point about the catchers calling games

 

give up the hits and walks we have... and fielding/game-calling wont matter that much. obviously that stuff is key, but the argument here is what will make your team best in the division.

[Texsox]

What the team has learned so far this season is ow to win close games. That takes confidence, motivation, and a little luck. I believe you make a lot of your luck. Stats prove what you saw was what you saw and help predict future performance.

[upnorthsox]

Well you don't have to look far back to see a team that led the league in era in April and went on to finish in 1st in era at the end of the season. That'd be the 2003 Dodgers. They also did it with guys pitching better than their career era. Let's just hope we can hit better than them.

 

One of the problems I have with Neyer is he's in love with K's by pitchers and then goes about manipulating the stats to prove his point. If you want a more reliable stat that reflects actual performance(ie wins and playoff appearances) then OPS against has been the better indicator over time.

 

I think if you had asked any Sox fan to put down the koolaid and point to the key for this season's playoff hopes it would be that Gar stepping up would be the biggest key, that our team era is currently reflecting this shouldn't be a cause of concern.

[southsider2k5]

Hi, new here.

 

Anyway, there is something that I haven't seen discussed in regards to the success of the pitching staff.  That's the addition of Pierzynski.  I remember reading an article early in the season where Ozzie said how no one wanted to pitch to Olivo.  Is it possible that A.J. has worked with the pitchers better than the catchers last year?

 

I would swear that AJ IS the difference in Contreras. I don't think Olivo, Davis, or Burke had the balls to make Jose throw his fastball. I have seen AJ go out to the mound after Jose waves off a couple of signs more than a few times. I really believe he is going out there to TELL him to feature the fastball. And so far it has worked very well.

[Texsox]

I would swear that AJ IS the difference in Contreras.  I don't think Olivo, Davis, or Burke had the balls to make Jose throw his fastball.  I have seen AJ go out to the mound after Jose waves off a couple of signs more than a few times.  I really believe he is going out there to TELL him to feature the fastball.  And so far it has worked very well.

 

Maybe that's why a few Giants pitchers complained. He probably isn't always correct.