Welcome to the Illini Richard Semrau

[qwerty]

Dee's stock will never be higher.  Even if he stays and plays pg next year, there's already a handful of guys who will likely be in the draft (Gibson, D-Wash, Diaz, Brewer, Collins) that would be picked above him at the pg spot.

 

If he shows that he can run the show next year as the starting point guard his stock will most definitely be higher than it is now. He is a mid to late second round pick at this point, nothing. He needs his senior year to prove the doubters wrong.

[whitesoxfan99]

Dee's stock will never be higher. 

 

Not true. Right now he is a SG who has never shown he can run a team by himself. He has to show he is a PG to pro scouts.

 

Even if he stays and plays pg next year, there's already a handful of guys who will likely be in the draft (Gibson, D-Wash, Diaz, Brewer, Collins) that would be picked above him at the pg spot

 

As opposed to this year where he would almost assuredly be behind Deron Williams, Jarret Jack, Raymond Felton, Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, and John Gilchrist. Not to mention that there are guys like Daniel Ewing, Luther Head, and Nate Robinson who are smaller guards that could all be picked ahead of Dee.

 

I'm not saying Dee won't go pro but I don't see how his stock can't get higher than it is now.

[fathom]

The reason I say Dee's stock won't go higher is that it would take MASSIVE improvements in his game to become a NBA style point guard. I love Dee, but he's basically a catch and shoot player in the halfcourt. I can count the times he penetrated the lane in the halfcourt offense on one hand. Dee doesn't have one-on-one ability, doesn't have a mid range game at all, is a poor finisher, and doesn't know how to draw contact. If you look at someone like Nate Robinson, their NBA readiness couldn't be different. N-Rob has great body control and penetration/passing ability in the halfcourt. I also don't know if Dee will shoot nearly as well as he did this year, next year. The opposition won't have to worry about the Illini have a guy like Head and Deron to also cover.

[Palehosefan]

Theo Davis' recruitment is a very odd one. At the end, when he was making his decision, teams were almost running away from him pulling their offers. He dropped Texas because of lack of PT, then it seems everyone dropped him but ISU. Lots of analysts think he has a ton of potential, very solid pick-up.

 

As for Rush, he's dying to enter the draft, but no matter how many times he asks, he doesn't like what he's hearing from the NBA scouts etc. I would be suprised if he's not at Illinois for atleast a year.

 

As for Conley, he's almost a lock for OSU right now, and teammate Greg Oden probably isn't too far behind. OSU and Thad Motta are locking up an unbelievable class with David Lighty and DQ Cook already in the fold. If they add Conley, regardless of Oden's NBA decision, they will have a top 3 class and something amazing to build on.

[southsider2k5]

With all of the pro vs college talk, keep in mind the collective bargining agreement is up after this season in the NBA, and the momemtum seems to indicate a minimum age of 20 for the NBA is about to happen.

[IlliniKrush]

Nice pickup for us, IlliniBoard has a nice buzz to it now. Good to get excited about recruiting for once. The same stuff palehose said on page 1 is what i know about him as well.

 

Dee is probly 50/50 to be honest. He was 90/10 a while back, but with a NC game run, that has all changed. I don't think he should go, but what do the fans know...he should make his decision very soon.

 

Rush is probly going NBA, i'm not gonna really hold out hope for him at this point. If it happens it would just be a huge bonus.

[whitesoxfan99]

Rush is probly going NBA, i'm not gonna really hold out hope for him at this point.  If it happens it would just be a huge bonus.

 

Rush wants to go to the NBA but isn't hearing what he wants from scouts and GMs so it is looking more likely that he will go to college.

[IlliniKrush]

Also, Scheyer's comments from this weekend indicate a Duke lean.

 

That would/could change if we somehow landed Rush.

[WHarris1]

What's the scoop on Collins as of right now?

 

Also-from what I can gather, Marques Johnson is our backup plan to Scheyer, is that correct?

Edited May 2, 2005 by WHarris1

[IlliniKrush]

Apparently he changed his mind about getting out of the Midwest. He initially wanted to head for the coast, but then decided to stay local with either Illinois or Mizzou. Who knows what the deal is with him now.

 

We need this type of PG BAD though.

 

He has grade issues, though.

 

Weber needs to recruit another PG in the meantime though, i think, if we wait out for him.

[IlliniKrush]

One of them, yes.

[shagar69]

With all of the pro vs college talk, keep in mind the collective bargining agreement is up after this season in the NBA, and the momemtum seems to indicate a minimum age of 20 for the NBA is about to happen.

hopefully that happens. that would be great for both the NBA and college

[nitetrain8601]

hopefully that happens. that would be great for both the NBA and college

 

Wouldn't really matter for the NBA. Matters greatly for college though. Anyway, right now, that issue is a real lockup for the CBA. If the max salaries were at least the same length and money as the current ones, then the player's union would probably accept it, but as of right now, they are opposed to it.

 

Hopefully the Illini get Rush, Scheyer(doubt those two though) and Collins(I think he's realistic).

[shagar69]

Wouldn't really matter for the NBA. Matters greatly for college though. Anyway, right now, that issue is a real lockup for the CBA. If the max salaries were at least the same length and money as the current ones, then the player's union would probably accept it, but as of right now, they are opposed to it.

 

Hopefully the Illini get Rush, Scheyer(doubt those two though) and Collins(I think he's realistic).

actually it does matter for the NBA. losers like Kwame Brown come into the league and do nothing for 4 years, and then they begin to develop. It waters down the league

[nitetrain8601]

actually it does matter for the NBA. losers like Kwame Brown come into the league and do nothing for 4 years, and then they begin to develop.  It waters down the league

 

And after those 4 years, they don't get that big contract if they suck. No one could possibly prove that going to college gives you a better chance at the NBA. In fact, high school has the better rate. Only busts have been Kwame and Leon Smith. Even at that, Leon Smith was just a headcase from the get go. Perfect example of college working against you. Chris Duhon. #1 rated player in his high school class by many scouts. Went to college. Had a picture perfect jump shot going in, horrible one after his senior year. First two years he was still considered to be a lottery pick, after staying in college, he was a 2nd round pick.

 

Again, the success rate in college can't be proven to be better than the success rate of those who jump straight to the pro's from high school. And just like in college, you have your really good ones who make immediate impacts like KG, Kobe and you have others who take time to develop, Jermaine and McGrady. To say all of them don't contribute right off the bat is wrong.

[ZoomSlowik]

And after those 4 years, they don't get that big contract if they suck. No one could possibly prove that going to college gives you a better chance at the NBA. In fact, high school has the better rate. Only busts have been Kwame and Leon Smith. Even at that, Leon Smith was just a headcase from the get go. Perfect example of college working against you. Chris Duhon. #1 rated player in his high school class by many scouts. Went to college. Had a picture perfect jump shot going in, horrible one after his senior year. First two years he was still considered to be a lottery pick, after staying in college, he was a 2nd round pick.

 

Again, the success rate in college can't be proven to be better than the success rate of those who jump straight to the pro's from high school. And just like in college, you have your really good ones who make immediate impacts like KG, Kobe and you have others who take time to develop, Jermaine and McGrady. To say all of them don't contribute right off the bat is wrong.

 

The reason that the success rate is pretty good for high schoolers is that only the top couple of guys from each class have a realistic shot at going pro. If you only took the top couple of college players in the draft every year it'd be the same way. Those youngsters still hurt the NBA product because they take up roster spots that could be filled by able veterans or more developed pro players. The vast majority of the high school prospects don't play a significant role on their team for their first two years. Lebron, Howard, Amare, and KG were the only ones that were major players in their first season, and most of the others have been virtual non-factors until their 3rd year.

 

There are plenty of high schoolers in the league that still haven't done anything like the aforementioned Kwame and Leon Brown, Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Ndudi Ebi, Kendrick Perkins, Deshawn Stevenson; and plenty of other guys that haven't made the major impact expected like Tyson Chandler, Al Harrington, Darius Miles, or even Curry for that matter; and I don't exactly forsee great things for Robert Swift or Sebastian Telfair. It's a little early to label the last two busts, but the rest of them certainly fit the bill. There are also more guys that never even made an NBA roster like Lenny Cooke or Oasmane Cisse (I have trouble coming up with these former All-Americans that disappeared, however there are 2 or 3 per season). There are going to be a lot fewer busts because there are fewer guys in the draft, but these are still some pretty nasty picks considering where they went, and numerous other players that never even really got a shot. Had these guys had a couple of years to play in college or an improved developmental league, they would have had a better chance of being ready to contribute in the NBA.

 

As for Duhon, there's no way he was the #1 player in that class, even looking back. There were guys like Miles and Stevenson that went pro, and Jared Jeffries and Zach Randolph were both rated in the top 5. I think he was the top PG, but I digress. He might have snuck into the first round after his freshman year, he didn't really start and scouts weren't sure about him and with his talent level he thought he could become a high lottery pick. He just never developed after that. He couldn't really go pro after his sophmore year because he had a poor season. He probably would have done the same thing if he had theoretically gone pro out of high school. He clearly couldn't consistently get a 3 up under pressure and had no mid range game. There are countless guys that got considerably better in college though like Emeka Okafor, Hakeem Warrick, Joey Graham anyways, trying to use Duhon as a point doesn't mean much. Virtually every other player that goes to college improves his draft stock, excluding of course guys like Lebron that went in the top 5.

 

There are only about 3 guys per class that should even consider going pro out of high school, and usually only one or two more that should go after their freshmen year. Putting in a 20 year age limit would give GM's a better idea of who's actually going to make an impact and would give those player a better chance to contribute in their first season. This is especially true now that guard prospects are trying to make the jump. For every Lebron or Amare that would be held back, there'd be another three players like Marcus Taylor or Omar Cooke that would have been forced to stay in school rather than make a terrible decision in trying to go pro too early.

Edited May 2, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[nitetrain8601]

High School:

 

Senior season: averaged 23 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.

Junior season: averaged 23.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists.

Sophomore: averaged 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists.

Freshman season: averaged 9.0 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists.

 

 

Selected to the 2000 McDonald's All American Game.

Selected to the Roundball Classic game.

Selected to the Nike Hoop Summit.

Won the McDonald's All-American Game three-point shooting contest.

Was named McDonald's Player of the Year.

W on Most Outstanding Player at the adidas Big Time Tournament in Las Vegas, NV

Led the New Orleans Jazz to the Big Time championship, as they defeated the Tim Thomas Playaz 110-103. Duhon scored 19 points (five three-pointers) and had seven assists despite playing with a ankle sprain.

 

At the USA Basketball Youth Developmental Festival, Duhon averaged 12.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 7.2 assists a game. But once again, he showed a flair for the dramatic. Duhon led his South Team to a 124-108 gold medal game victory thanks to his 29 points (7-11 on 3's), seven assists and five rebounds.

http://nbadraft.net/profiles/chrisduhon.htm

 

http://www.nbadraft.net/58days02.htm

 

talks about him being a 5-10 pick and falling no lower than a 20 pick after his freshman year.

 

It's not too crazy to see both of them being drafted in the top five if Duhon were to declare for the NBA draft in the spring after his sophomore season. Williams, a junior, is already saying he's gone after likely earning his degree in three years.

 

http://espn.go.com/ncb/columns/katz_andy/1267426.html

 

There's more if you want them. That particular link also talks about how he was probably the best pure PG the ACC ever produced and how he had a 4:1 A/TO ratio.

 

During his first two years at Duke, there was little question in scouts' minds about his NBA future. But his jump shot steadily became more erratic and his defense suffered, too, in a so-so junior year in which scouts all but wrote him off. But the leadership and tenacity he's displayed in leading Duke to this Final Four despite playing with a painful rib injury has them again buzzing about him.

 

That's an article about Marcus Taylor and Chris Duhon. Many sites say Duhon and Taylor were 1-2 and vice versa in many scouts eyes.

 

 

And of course, guys who only have realistic shots of making it go. Diop was going to be a bust going through college or not because of injury concerns. Never played a full year of basketball without getting hurt prior to NBA, why would he start when he was playing in a more physical league?? Most of the guys who didn't make it you could pretty much predict it.

 

And BTW, I remember Kobe being an All-Star in his second season. You may want to check that up. Your whole argument is that well veterans, even though they may be lesser players, deserve to get paid the millions over better qualified people simply because they are veterans. You also need to take into account that the teams are drafting them, the players aren't drafting themselves. Also coaches usually think it's best to put a guy on the bench and not play him at all. Look at Larry Brown. Darko played pro and he didn't even get 20 minutes per game in his 2nd year yet.

[ZoomSlowik]

I know Duhon was good as a high school player, but very few had him as the number one overall player. Miles was locked into that spot for some time.

 

I don't recall anything having him going in the top 10 after his freshmen year. If that is really the case than he is a moron for not going and that's another story, but I never remember anything saying that.

 

Also, the first article you quote states that he would be a 5-10 pick IF he could run the offense and be a team leader. Also, Katz never said he would go in the top 5, but he said it was in the realm of possibility. Katz isn't an NBA draft guy anyways, I would read more into it if the pro scouts or writers on ESPN had said that. It was also written before the season, speculating that he would have a great year. I never argued that he didn't have that kind of potential, but he never reached it. Both of those quotes are merely speculating on his potential, and aren't draft prep articles that say he would definitely go in the top 10 as you seem to claim that they are.

 

I also don't really see how you can claim that you can see that all of those guys would fail. Bender wasn't really any different than Garnett, he was a big guy with excellent ball handling and shooting skills that dominated the All-star games and was a top 5 pick. Miles was an incredibly athletic player who looked like he could dominate with more experience, much like T-Mac, but it never happened. Stevenson fits in that category too, he wasn't that different than Kobe. Harrington was tough to say that about too, he had a ton of talent coming out. These guys were all extremely talented, but for some reason they never fufilled their potential. It's hard to predict that kind of stuff because most of the high school prospects are extremely raw. You don't know if the ridiculously athletic swingman will ever be able to create his own shot, or if that post guy will develop the moves.

 

Yes, Kobe was an All-star in his second year, although he still wasn't even a starter on his own team. He's one of the handful of guys that produced early in his career, he's basically the only other one besides the one I mentioned that produced in his first two years.

 

You're missing the main point of my argument. The point is that the vast majority of these guys AREN'T more qualified than the veterans that they are taking roster spots from. Teams draft these players based on their potential, not their current ability to contribute to the team. This is why the players' association has been somewhat receptive to the age limit. Most of these guys ride the bench for at least their first two years, making little to no impact on their team. Those spots could be used better on a veteran that is actually ready to compete in the NBA while the guys that still need some time to develop stay in college to do that. Teams are somewhat forced into taking these guys in the current situation. The NBA has stripped the college ranks to the point that when the senior class comes up the top 15 guys are gone, so they have to go deeper into the underclassmen pool to find the future all-stars. GM's wouldn't have to do that with an age limit because the top players will still be there. The players would also be able to develop their skills more against better competition, meaning they'd be less likely to come into the NBA and ride the bench for their first two years. The age limit would improve the quality of play both in college and in the pros, because there would be fewer guys entering the league that aren't ready to play at all like Edi or Darko.

Edited May 3, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[nitetrain8601]

I know Duhon was good as a high school player, but very few had him as the number one overall player. Miles was locked into that spot for some time.

 

I don't recall anything having him going in the top 10 after his freshmen year. If that is really the case than he is a moron for not going and that's another story, but I never remember anything saying that.

 

Also, the first article you quote states that he would be a 5-10 pick IF he could run the offense and be a team leader. Also, Katz never said he would go in the top 5, but he said it was in the realm of possibility. Katz isn't an NBA draft guy anyways, I would read more into it if the pro scouts or writers on ESPN had said that. It was also written before the season, speculating that he would have a great year. I never argued that he didn't have that kind of potential, but he never reached it. Both of those quotes are merely speculating on his potential, and aren't draft prep articles that say he would definitely go in the top 10 as you seem to claim that they are.

 

I also don't really see how you can claim that you can see that all of those guys would fail. Bender wasn't really any different than Garnett, he was a big guy with excellent ball handling and shooting skills that dominated the All-star games and was a top 5 pick. Miles was an incredibly athletic player who looked like he could dominate with more experience, much like T-Mac, but it never happened. Stevenson fits in that category too, he wasn't that different than Kobe. Harrington was tough to say that about too, he had a ton of talent coming out. These guys were all extremely talented, but for some reason they never fufilled their potential. It's hard to predict that kind of stuff because most of the high school prospects are extremely raw. You don't know if the ridiculously athletic swingman will ever be able to create his own shot, or if that post guy will develop the moves.

 

Yes, Kobe was an All-star in his second year, although he still wasn't even a starter on his own team. He's one of the handful of guys that produced early in his career, he's basically the only other one besides the one I mentioned that produced in his first two years.

 

You're missing the main point of my argument. The point is that the vast majority of these guys AREN'T more qualified than the veterans that they are taking roster spots from. Teams draft these players based on their potential, not their current ability to contribute to the team. This is why the players' association has been somewhat receptive to the age limit. Most of these guys ride the bench for at least their first two years, making little to no impact on their team. Those spots could be used better on a veteran that is actually ready to compete in the NBA while the guys that still need some time to develop stay in college to do that. Teams are somewhat forced into taking these guys in the current situation. The NBA has stripped the college ranks to the point that when the senior class comes up the top 15 guys are gone, so they have to go deeper into the underclassmen pool to find the future all-stars. GM's wouldn't have to do that with an age limit because the top players will still be there. The players would also be able to develop their skills more against better competition, meaning they'd be less likely to come into the NBA and ride the bench for their first two years. The age limit would improve the quality of play both in college and in the pros, because there would be fewer guys entering the league that aren't ready to play at all like Edi or Darko.

 

Bender was going in a situation where they had just got Jermaine O'Neal, got Al Harrington from the year before, and got Ron Artest. Also Indy didn't play him right away. Coaches decision, for whatever reason. Leon Smith had documented problems in high school. Miles was never ever a jumpshooter. He was a skinny kid who just drove. Never developed a jumpshot and didn't use effort to play D. The fact that Jordan hyped him up to be drafted higher than he should've been. DeShawn Stevenson was just given bad advice as he wasn't a sought after player in the NBA. Everyone knew he could score, that's it. I even remember watching a Utah game where they were talking about this exact thing. Harrington hasn't been a bust. Look at his numbers. He's been pretty good actually. Kwame played weak competition in Georgia and that was always the knock on him. Georgia I believe was the worst ranked state for basketball his senior year which is when he dominated. He has the tools, but he doesn't have the mindset. I guess you could say you couldn't predict him. Lenny Cooke is one guy I will say that I couldn't predict because it seemed he had a good grasp. Ndubi Ebi was a guy drafted just for the sake of developing because of KG and Olwakandi(spose to be good) and Kedrick Perkins was the same way. Lots of these guys are already pre-determined by the NBA coaches and teams that they will start off on the bench.

 

Anyway, we don't know who's ready or not if it's already in GM's minds that when they draft a HSer that they'll sit on the bench for the year. Tons of teams are doing that. Blame coaches and GM's for not playing the guys right away and not letting them "earn their check."

[Nokona]

Semrau + Scheyer = Sexy

 

Please god. Please let it happen.

Edited May 3, 2005 by Nokona

[nitetrain8601]

Semrau + Scheyer = Sexy

 

Please god. Please let it happen.

 

I keep hearing that Marques Johnson is a better player than Scheyer from guys on the Illini board. They say while Scheyer is a great player himself, the reason why so many people want him at Illinois is because he's from inside the state, but Johnson has better potential and a better array of skills. I personally don't care as long as the Illini do great in recruiting. I want Thadeus Young if Brandon Rush doesn't come.

[ZoomSlowik]

Anyway, we don't know who's ready or not if it's already in GM's minds that when they draft a HSer that they'll sit on the bench for the year. Tons of teams are doing that. Blame coaches and GM's for not playing the guys right away and not letting them "earn their check."

 

Most of the time there is a reason that these guys don't play much. I learned this after watching those guys play those few garbage minutes. The guys are just lost. Milicic looked god awful his rookie year when he went in, the guy couldn't dunk much less shoot or play defense. Bender has been around for quite some time and he still looks lost most of the time he's in. Outside of the few truly elite guys the high schoolers just aren't even close to ready. Some of these guys are starting to look more prepared like J.R. Smith, Josh Smith, and Al Jefferson, but I take that as more of an indication of the state of the NBA than how ready these guys really are.

 

Back to the main topic. I really hope that Illinois can build on this commitment and get some of the bigger guys. It's kind of depressing seeing Duke come in and get guys like Dockery, Thompson, and Livingston, or Kansas with Wright, or UNC with Frasor. They gotta keep at least a few of the elite guys to stay in Illinois while stealing one or two from the other states. Semrau is a start, although I'm not sure he's quite the type of immediate impact guy they need. Rush would be huge even if he is a one and done, and Scheyer or some of the other 2006 prospects would really help a ton. I really don't think they can stay on top of the Big Ten every year unless they start getting guys like Cook or Brown again.

[whitesoxfan99]

It's kind of depressing seeing Duke come in and get guys like Dockery, Thompson, and Livingston, or Kansas with Wright, or UNC with Frasor.

 

Duke can take all the Thompsons and Dockerys they want.

[qwerty]

Most of the time there is a reason that these guys don't play much. I learned this after watching those guys play those few garbage minutes. The guys are just lost. Milicic looked god awful his rookie year when he went in, the guy couldn't dunk much less shoot or play defense.

 

I agree with every thing you have said except about milicic. Larry brown is a b**** that wouldn't even be playing leron james or carmello anthony at this point. If milicic came out any year outside of the year he did he would have been the number one of all selection with ease. He would be this year if he never came out. From the euro league sites i have read and people that have actually seen him play when he was back there he was insane.

 

He needs to get out of detroit and go to a team that can offer him a signifigant amount of playing time. If he shows he is a bust then alright. But i don't think people can start saying that ( not implying you, just in general alot of people are down on him when in reality not much he can do about it).

[ZoomSlowik]

I know Dockery and Thompson didn't do much in college, but they were still monster recruits that we couldn't keep in state. Plus they might have done more if they weren't buried behind 8 million other McDonald's All Americans.

 

As for Milicic, I keep hearing that he is really a terror, but it certainly doesn't seem like it whenever he does get on the floor. I'd be more inclined to trust Brown, the guy's a pretty good coach and I doubt he'd have him playing so infrequently if he could help the team, especially when they were struggling earlier in the year. I'm not saying he's a definite bust at this point, but something is definitely going to have to change drastically.