how good a SS is jose valentin???

[baggio202]

Are you familiar with Bill James's Actual and Expected Double Plays? It measures how many double plays a team turns, as opposed to how many it should've, based on how many runners were on first, etc.

 

Well, Valentin played 100 games at shortstop (or short and second combined) in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 for the Brewers, and 2000 for the White Sox.

 

In 1993, the year before full-time Jose in Milwaukee, they turned 1.6 DPs less than expected.

 

However, in 1994-1998, they exceeded the DP prediction every year, by 13.7, 17.3, 12.4, 20.2, and 31.8 (a tremendous number.) The next year, Jose was injured, and the Brewers turned less double plays than expected once again, this time by 14.5.

 

In 1999, pre-Jose, the Sox turned 5.9 double plays less. In 2000, we turned 26.7 more. In 2001, with Royce the Choice keeping Jose at third, we were back down to 5.8 less than expected. This is substantial proof at what a great SS Jose is.

 

(credit for this goes to a fan with the nickname mollineaux at chisox.com)

[LDF]

Are you familiar with Bill James's Actual and Expected Double Plays? It measures how many double plays a team turns, as opposed to how many it should've, based on how many runners were on first, etc.

 

Well, Valentin played 100 games at shortstop (or short and second combined) in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 for the Brewers, and 2000 for the White Sox.

 

In 1993, the year before full-time Jose in Milwaukee, they turned 1.6 DPs less than expected.

 

However, in 1994-1998, they exceeded the DP prediction every year, by 13.7, 17.3, 12.4, 20.2, and 31.8 (a tremendous number.) The next year, Jose was injured, and the Brewers turned less double plays than expected once again, this time by 14.5.

 

In 1999, pre-Jose, the Sox turned 5.9 double plays less. In 2000, we turned 26.7 more. In 2001, with Royce the Choice keeping Jose at third, we were back down to 5.8 less than expected. This is substantial proof at what a great SS Jose is.

 

(credit for this goes to a fan with the nickname mollineaux at chisox.com)

yes!!!!!!!!! excellent

 

but his other value is what he does bring to the team in a sense of leadership

[BrandoFan]

This is substantial proof at what a great SS Jose is.

 

Great research, Baggs.

 

I think that he excels at non-DP situations as well as his range (it's not as good as it was pre-2001, but still above average) and arm and penchance for reading the pitch well off the bat, positioning and clutchness allow him to overcome occasional bad throw or botched routine play and we already know overwhelming majority of his errors don't cost Sox any runs.

 

Is he one of the top defensive SS in the league now? No chance in hell, his errors may not cost any runs but they still wear the pitcher out and/or make him nervous, he also lost half a step because of hamstring problems and lack of consistent play at SS in the last 2 years as well as his age...BUT is he one of the worst fielding SS in the game like many have suggested looking only at his error total? Not.even.close. Overall he is about average IMO certainly as good as Royce Clayton (last year was a career year for him, an abberation).

 

So my verdict is Jose is not a defensive liability, definately not enough to overshadow his offense, (underrated) baserunning and leadership skills. Certainly worth 4-5 Mill even to this budget-oriented team.

[witesoxfan]

Certainly worth 4-5 Mill even to this budget-oriented team.

It's the best you can out for $5 mill.

[BrandoFan]

It's the best you can out for $5 mill.

 

Am I alone in hoping that Jose finishes his career with the White Sox if his health allows him? I mean he is easily worth 5 Mill in 2004 and will probably give us a discount again for 2005-2007 seasons until Andy Gonzalez or whomever are ready to step in. Since he is a very smart player with very good worth ethic and not a lof ot weight (heavy players tend to age faster), and since Lofton-esque super-quickness was never his primary tool, he could easily last into late his 30's without losing much skills. Ricky Handerson can still play at 44, lol..Who knows Manos may become our manager in 10-15 years.

 

Also, am I the only person who doesnt want Tejada and his 5 year 60 million contract demands? Hell, I'd rather pay 2 million more and lock Valdimir Guerrero up long term.

[LDF]

It's the best you can out for $5 mill.

 

Am I alone in hoping that Jose finishes his career with the White Sox if his health allows him? I mean he is easily worth 5 Mill in 2004 and will probably give us a discount again for 2005-2007 seasons until Andy Gonzalez or whomever are ready to step in. Since he is a very smart player with very good worth ethic and not a lof ot weight (heavy players tend to age faster), and since Lofton-esque super-quickness was never his primary tool, he could easily last into late his 30's without losing much skills. Ricky Handerson can still play at 44, lol..Who knows Manos may become our manager in 10-15 years.

 

Also, am I the only person who doesnt want Tejada and his 5 year 60 million contract demands? Hell, I'd rather pay 2 million more and lock Valdimir Guerrero up long term.

i can't believe this, but i am actually agreeing with you in this post.

[southsider2k5]

It's the best you can out for $5 mill.

 

Am I alone in hoping that Jose finishes his career with the White Sox if his health allows him? I mean he is easily worth 5 Mill in 2004 and will probably give us a discount again for 2005-2007 seasons until Andy Gonzalez or whomever are ready to step in. Since he is a very smart player with very good worth ethic and not a lof ot weight (heavy players tend to age faster), and since Lofton-esque super-quickness was never his primary tool, he could easily last into late his 30's without losing much skills. Ricky Handerson can still play at 44, lol..Who knows Manos may become our manager in 10-15 years.

 

Also, am I the only person who doesnt want Tejada and his 5 year 60 million contract demands? Hell, I'd rather pay 2 million more and lock Valdimir Guerrero up long term.

i can't believe this, but i am actually agreeing with you in this post.

Only problem is I don't think either Vlad or Tejada will come this cheap or short term.

[BrandoFan]

Only problem is I don't think either Vlad or Tejada will come this cheap or short term.

 

 

I think you will see salaries decline in the next few years, but it all depends who VG's agent is.

 

Maggs will be a 14 Mill player next year and I am expecting V. to be around that figure but in a multi year deal. He is one of the few players in the game who is worth the money and IMO the only weakness in his game is his eye, but he is still very young and still improving every year.

 

Yankees will get him though.

[Bmr31]

To answer your question, an awful one?

[witesoxfan]

Only problem is I don't think either Vlad or Tejada will come this cheap or short term.

 

 

I think you will see salaries decline in the next few years, but it all depends who VG's agent is.

 

Maggs will be a 14 Mill player next year and I am expecting V. to be around that figure but in a multi year deal. He is one of the few players in the game who is worth the money and IMO the only weakness in his game is his eye, but he is still very young and still improving every year.

 

Yankees will get him though.

That'd be a killer OF.....Maggs, Borchard, Guerrero from LF to RF....and in reality, if need be, all 3 of them could play anywhere in the OF.

 

Guerrero is also a terrible defensive player....he has no leather. He has a cannon for an arm....but makes a lot of errors....and it's not always him being overaggressive either. He's SamME-bad in RF.....only he can hit the cutoff man....if he needs to.

 

That OF could hit 120-140 bombs in the future while stealing 60 bases and driving in 350-400....and we could put them anywhere....with Maggs being the only one that wouldn't ever really play CF. That would also potentially strengthen the bench as well....we could go for either a backup OFer that has very good range, or one that can hit the ball very well....and we wouldn't have to have a guy that can play all 3 positions and that is it. We could have 2 Brian Daubach's....or, for comparison, 2 Jeff Liefer's.

 

I'd like it....and I'd also like to see Jose as a White Sox the rest of his career. IMO, he's that good. And when he retires....assuming we still had DJ and he has panned out into a great player....he could take over SS.

[BrandoFan]

That OF could hit 120-140 bombs in the future while stealing 60 bases and driving in 350-400

 

Forget about HR's and steals (which are becoming more irrelevant with each passing year), this trio is all about RBIs (300 between V. and Maggs)...and pipe dreams.

[whitesox247]

Are you familiar with Bill James's Actual and Expected Double Plays? It measures how many double plays a team turns, as opposed to how many it should've, based on how many runners were on first, etc.

 

Well, Valentin played 100 games at shortstop (or short and second combined) in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 for the Brewers, and 2000 for the White Sox.

 

In 1993, the year before full-time Jose in Milwaukee, they turned 1.6 DPs less than expected.

 

However, in 1994-1998, they exceeded the DP prediction every year, by 13.7, 17.3, 12.4, 20.2, and 31.8 (a tremendous number.) The next year, Jose was injured, and the Brewers turned less double plays than expected once again, this time by 14.5.

 

In 1999, pre-Jose, the Sox turned 5.9 double plays less. In 2000, we turned 26.7 more. In 2001, with Royce the Choice keeping Jose at third, we were back down to 5.8 less than expected. This is substantial proof at what a great SS Jose is.

 

(credit for this goes to a fan with the nickname mollineaux at chisox.com)

Jose bashers, ya hear that? Now what can you complain about our 2003 All Star shorstop?

[southsider2k5]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation. If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure. At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years. We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

[Chisoxfn]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I want our pitching staff back. If were going to sign anyone, its got to be more pitchers

[baggio202]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I want our pitching staff back. If were going to sign anyone, its got to be more pitchers

i wouldnt want tejada....he has the same kinda rep as jimenez...he was benched 4 games by art howe last year for loafing and jason giambi used to regularly get into with miguel because of lack of effort...both these guys up the middle when hot would be okay...but if they got in a slump they would feed off each other and talk about a downward spiral...

 

we got jose to ride jimenez and mark ellis is very similiar to jose in hustle and leadership...both guys are in good situatons where they have leadership players as their keystone partner to keep them in line...shouldnt mess that up imo

[LDF]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I want our pitching staff back. If were going to sign anyone, its got to be more pitchers

i wouldnt want tejada....he has the same kinda rep as jimenez...he was benched 4 games by art howe last year for loafing and jason giambi used to regularly get into with miguel because of lack of effort...both these guys up the middle when hot would be okay...but if they got in a slump they would feed off each other and talk about a downward spiral...

 

we got jose to ride jimenez and mark ellis is very similiar to jose in hustle and leadership...both guys are in good situatons where they have leadership players as their keystone partner to keep them in line...shouldnt mess that up imo

if it my pick, i will take jose as our ss until one of the youngsters are ready.

[BrandoFan]

if it my pick, i will take jose as our ss until one of the youngsters are ready

 

Andy Gonzalez is 19 and, frankly, will probably never match Jose's overall output. If he does, IMO it won't be until like 2010, lol

 

Let's fact it, Jose will probably be as good as he is now until 2006 or maybe even later. Who knows he may even become better ala Vizquel...Yes, 5 million is a bit of money, but if you want to build a dynasty it's peanuts. Besides, I think Jose will give the Sox a discount past 2004, say, 2 years/ 6.5 million.

 

Vladimir Guerrero and Maggs would cost a pretty penny but think of how many fans in a big market/nationally it will bring. Suddenly, they will be hailed as the best 3-4 in baseball with all the resultant hype...which means even more fans, some converted Cubbie ones who are always looking for a winner. Of course Frank and his 5-6 million would have to go and so would Slownerko and his 8 M to make room...I bet St, Louis would love to have him instead of Tino Martinez or even San Franciso, etc.

 

Pipe dream I know (knowing what we know of JR), but thinking big is a real fan's luxury.

[witesoxfan]

I personally don't think Thomas would have to go.

 

After this year....we hopefully resign Colon for 3 years....$30 mill, tops. If he wants more, he can get the hell out of here. We sign MB to a 4-year deal worth about $12 mill. Get Thomas for $7 mill or so.....that in itself is only adding about $6 mill. We get rid of Konerko and Lee....which would probably free up about $14 mill....and that's like $8 mill we can spend. Maggs goes from $9 mill to $14 mill next year....so that's $3 mill we can spend...and hopefully, Jose gives us that discount and we get him for about $3 mill a year. We break even then....and after adding a few more salaries....we are at maybe $60-65 mill...tops, without making any additions. If this team does well in the postseason....I see no reason why we couldn't add Vlad.....especially considering we are hosting the All-Star game....except for the fact that JR won't spend money.

 

If he opened his eyes and realized that adding a big name FA like that will help bring in fans....like what happened when we brought in Belle(attendance increased by 200,000....and the Sox were worse in 97 than in 96)....he'd be bringing in money....and we'd be winning. It's a win-win situation.....even if the Sox suck.

 

And with a 1-2 punch of Colon and Buehrle, and an OF of Vlad, Borchard, and Maggs....I don't see how this team could fail. We'd be a poor man's Yankees....or we could be, anyways.

[baggio202]

except for the fact that JR won't spend money.

bingo

[BrandoFan]

After this year....we hopefully resign Colon for 3 years....$30 mill, tops. If he wants more, he can get the hell out of here.

 

He'll be looking for 5 year, 65+ Mill a year if he wins 20 and keeps ERA under 3.25. He's gone.

 

We sign MB to a 4-year deal worth about $12 mill.

 

Make it 28 Million if he wins 20 games.

 

Get Thomas for $7 mill or so

....

 

Frank of 2002 is not worth it. Frank of 2000 becomes a FA , sticks it to the Sox and looks for 10 million a year at least.

 

We get rid of Konerko and Lee....

 

You think many teams will want a below-average defensive player who has turtle speed and doesn't walk whole a lot and gets 8 Million a year? Lee will make about 6 in arbitration and is worth more to the Sox because of his potential than to other teams. It will take more than KW's talents as a GM to not only unload them but to get some talent back. Either way some fans will think it's White Flag II 'cuase kiddies lurve Paulie and Carlos...

 

Maggs goes from $9 mill to $14 mill next year....so that's $3 mill we can spend

...

 

We've had Maggs on the cheap for for years and we couldn't win. Now our time has run out and we must pay up the second most popular player and one who is just entering his prime seemingly. Fair is fair.

 

and hopefully, Jose gives us that discount and we get him for about $3 mill a year.

 

He has family to support. After 2004 is another story, but the way he is playing right now, only an idiot would turn down 5 million. No chance.

 

....I see no reason why we couldn't add Vlad.....especially considering we are hosting the All-Star game....except for the fact that JR won't spend money.

 

Is 7 years, 100-150 million reason enough? I couldn't care less about Chairman's money, but reality being what it is...unless our attendance goes over 2.8M this year, you can forget about Vladimir.

 

If he opened his eyes and realized that adding a big name FA like that will help bring in fans....like what happened when we brought in Belle(attendance increased by 200,000....and the Sox were worse in 97 than in 96)....he'd be bringing in money...

 

Albert Belle cost 11 Million (plus insurence). Extra 200, 000 fans might bring in 3 million. Do the math.

 

.and we'd be winning. It's a win-win situation.....even if the Sox suck.

 

Ha?

 

And with a 1-2 punch of Colon and Buehrle, and an OF of Vlad, Borchard, and Maggs....I don't see how this team could fail.

 

If Garland, Rauch, Cotts, Wright/Diazm Crede, Olivo, Jimenez, Valentin, Marte, Glover, Wunsht, etc perform as the should and avoid injuries (not guarantees), yes the team will be good for 105-110 lol

[Rex Hudler]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I think Omar Vizquel would be a more realistic choice for Sox SS in 2004, assuming that we don't keep Jose and that Jiminez is not the heir apparent.

[YASNY]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I think Omar Vizquel would be a more realistic choice for Sox SS in 2004, assuming that we don't keep Jose and that Jiminez is not the heir apparent.

That's a large assumption there, Rex. I wouldn't want Visquel anyway. We tried that path with a washed up Indian last year, and it worked for about a month.

[southsider2k5]

Albert Belle cost 11 Million (plus insurence). Extra 200, 000 fans might bring in 3 million. Do the math.

 

200,000/3,000,000=$15 a fan??? That is pretty low IMO considering the cheapest ticket we have in the building is $14. So those extra 200,000 people are all going to show up to the park in public transportation, buy the cheapest seat and not buy any concessions or suveneirs? I think an estimate of $30 to $40 of revenue per fan is much more realistic. When you factor in $15 to park, at least $20 for a lower deck seat, $4.75 a beer, $4 a program etc, $15 a fan is WAY too low.

[southsider2k5]

In all honesty I would want to sign Tejada more than Vlad in the Sox situation.  If we sign Vlad we kiss Maggs good bye for sure.  At least with Tejada we solidify the SS position for years.  We have much better players near to making the team in the OF vs SS.

I think Omar Vizquel would be a more realistic choice for Sox SS in 2004, assuming that we don't keep Jose and that Jiminez is not the heir apparent.

A guy like Omar on our team could be invaluable. He can bunt, he hits in the clutch, he gives himself up for the team, he plays incredible defense, he is a fan favorite, and he is a great clubhouse guy.

[Guest wsc425]

Only problem is I don't think either Vlad or Tejada will come this cheap or short term.

 

 

I think you will see salaries decline in the next few years, but it all depends who VG's agent is.

 

Maggs will be a 14 Mill player next year and I am expecting V. to be around that figure but in a multi year deal. He is one of the few players in the game who is worth the money and IMO the only weakness in his game is his eye, but he is still very young and still improving every year.

 

Yankees will get him though.

That'd be a killer OF.....Maggs, Borchard, Guerrero from LF to RF....and in reality, if need be, all 3 of them could play anywhere in the OF.

 

Guerrero is also a terrible defensive player....he has no leather. He has a cannon for an arm....but makes a lot of errors....and it's not always him being overaggressive either. He's SamME-bad in RF.....only he can hit the cutoff man....if he needs to.

 

That OF could hit 120-140 bombs in the future while stealing 60 bases and driving in 350-400....and we could put them anywhere....with Maggs being the only one that wouldn't ever really play CF. That would also potentially strengthen the bench as well....we could go for either a backup OFer that has very good range, or one that can hit the ball very well....and we wouldn't have to have a guy that can play all 3 positions and that is it. We could have 2 Brian Daubach's....or, for comparison, 2 Jeff Liefer's.

 

I'd like it....and I'd also like to see Jose as a White Sox the rest of his career. IMO, he's that good. And when he retires....assuming we still had DJ and he has panned out into a great player....he could take over SS.

Guererro makes nice plays in the OF. Allstar baseball 2004 proves that he does.