Best in the AL. Sag ratings.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Since Sag's has added OPS to both, there's no reason for me to go elsewhere

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp05.htm PITCHERS

A class:

1-CHW 2, 4, 11, 15, 49 : 16.2 avg

2-BOS 6, 14, 40 : 20 avg

3-MIN 7, 19, 33, 41 : 25 avg

4-BAL 1, 16, 38, 39, 40 : 26.8 avg

5-NYY 12, 25, 46 : 28 avg

6-LAA 3, 35, 36, 50 : 31 avg

7-TEX 9, 18, 37, 47, 53 : 32.8 avg

 

Only 3 teams with solid 5 men rotations. The NYY might be sitting home this year. BAL's staff is for real.

 

B+ class:

1-MIN 2, 7, 18 : avg 9

2-LAA 10, 12, 23 : avg 15

3-CHW 5, 8, 46 : avg 20

4-BAL 13, 17, 33 : avg 21

5-NYY 16, 22, 26 : avg 21

6-BOS 25, 29, 36 : avg 30

7-TEX 1, 34, 59 : avg 31

 

We can see from this list the teams we will competing with for RP help. At least 4 contenders of all which have more $ to spend then we do. We can also see MIN dominance in this area. (Crain, Nathan, Romero).

 

If we do get a top 20 guy (Wagner 15th) then the CHW get the edge.

CHW 5, 8, 15 : avg 7

 

B- class: (incl SP on DL)

CHW 67 : avg 67

BAL 58, 76 : avg 67

TEX 72 : avg 72

MIN 24, 44, 62, 64 : avg 49

NYY 43, 49, 63, 87 : avg 61

LAA 39, 54, 68, 85 : avg 62

BOS 55, 60, 78, 80, 82, 84 : avg 73

 

What matters most in this list is how many guys are on it. That's why I rank MIN 4th even though they have the lowest avg. This group comprises starters on DL, & middle to spot relief. Again you can see who the big contenders are & what they will be shopping for.

 

With a Wagner-like trade the CHW avg is 56. That's decisively better than the rest

keeping them at the top of this class.

 

C+ class: Seldom used or AAA talent.

CHW 10, 14, 21 : avg 15

TEX 4, 26, 27 : avg 19

NYY 9, 23, 37 : avg 23

LAA 3, 35, 42 : avg 27

BAL 15, 50 : avg : avg 33

MIN 22, 51 : avg 37

BOS 16, 39, 58 : avg 38

 

C- class: (struggling in relief)

LAA

BAL

BOS

MIN

CHW 47 : avg 47

NYY 38, 41, 57 : avg 45

TEX 36, 43, 48, 55 : avg 46

 

The NYY don't look good. It seems all they have to use for trades is cash. I'd give the nod to BOS. Pitching-wise BAL looks better than both.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alb05.htm HITTERS

A class:

BAL 1, 12, 22, 23, 38, 45 : avg 24

TEX 2, 14, 27, 30, 46 : avg 20

NYY 3, 8, 11, 24, 26, 31, 55, 60, 75, 77 : avg 37

BOS 5, 6, 9, 10, 17, 21, 51, 67, 83 : avg 30

MIN 19, 33, 35, 50, 64, 71 : avg 46

CHW 29, 34, 41, 43, 57, 59, 78, 81, 87 : avg 57

LAA 15, 61, 62, 73, 84 : avg 59

 

This is both a measure of your regulars & their production. With Vlad out either makes a move now or watches Texas pass them. The Yanks have the edge over BOS. MIN edge is not that big considering we have Thomas returning. If his 05 is anything like his 02 that's a 22 ranking. That drops the average down to 50.

 

B+ class: Bench strength

MIN 1, 4, 24 : avg 10

CHW 6, 31, 59 : avg 32

LAA 13, 39, 45 : avg 32

BAL 14, 21, 37 : avg 24

NYY 18, 32 : avg 25

TEX 28, 36, 44 : avg 36

BOS 58, 62 : avg 60

 

There are several contenders looking to shore up there bench strength as well.

Polanco(3.94 RPG) has played enough to make A class with PHI. Surprisingly he's not doing much better than Crede (3.91 RPG). MIN just makes you sick. How deep is that organization? I hate that team. I loathe it's very existence. Why or why didn't they get contracted? Everybody was in up & arms over Montreal. Nobody cared about the Twins.

 

B- class: Fill-in strength (DL replacements)

CHW

NYY

BOS

MIN 34, 35, 60, 69 : avg 50

LAA 50, 61, 65, 67 : avg 61

BAL 51, 55, 68 : avg 58

TEX 52, 54 : avg 53

 

Hitting wise you can see which contenders have enjoyed good health & which have not. MIN record is very impressive given their health problems.

 

Pitching Summary:

SP: CHW, BOS, MIN, BAL, NYY, LAA, TEX

SRP: MIN, LAA, CHW, BAL, NYY, BOS, TEX (starting relief)

ERP: CHW, BAL, TEX, MIN, NYY, LAA, BOS (emergency relief)

AAARP: CHW, TEX, NYY, LAA, BAL, MIN, BOS

 

MIN has the best 1-4 in RP, but they are not deep beyond that. Any injury to 1-4

& they could be in trouble. The CHW are deep in relief. They can withstand any injury in the pen better than any other team.

 

Overall with the CHW expected to get a top 20 RP before the deadline they should move up to #2 in SRP which would insure them the best staff in AL.

 

Hitting Summary:

SH: BAL, TEX, NYY, BOS, MIN, CHW, LAA (starters)

BH: MIN, CHW, LAA, BAL, NYY, TEX, BOS (bench)

FH: CHW, NYY, BOS, TEX. MIN, BOS, LAA (fill-ins)

 

MIN bench is awesome. There is a big gap between 1st & 2nd there. But the return of Frank Thomas will close some of that gap. Even without Frank, the WSox bench has performed better than most.

 

Predictions:

MIN has it all to beat out any ALE team for the WC (good SP, excellent RP, fair hitting, & excellent bench hitting). Lohse has been a dissapointment in the rotation & Mays has been less than good. That should give the WSox the edge for the division.

 

BAL has stronger relief pitching than both NYY & BOS. That should give them the edge in ALE over both teams. The top two spenders are going to miss the dance.

 

LAA received good news with Vlad's MRI. Their pitching & reserve hitting is good enough to withstand that temporary loss. They should win the ALW.

 

CHW have such a decisive advantage in SP that they should win the ALC & compete for best record in the AL. Their RP is good enough to overcome weak hitting amongst their starters. Their reserve hitting is amongst the best in the AL & there is even greater help beyond the horizon.

http://minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/st...id=milb&cid=494

23 yr old B Anderson - insurance if Everett goes down

29 yr old R Gload - soon to return to the bench

31 yr old F Martinez - surprising season at SS for the Knights.

 

As good as MIN RP is it still has not greatly outperformed the WSox.

CHW: SP 7L, RP 7L vs MINT: SP 12L, RP 6L

If we add a top 20 guy before we face them we should beat them in the 2nd half.

Edited May 25, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[Cali]

I see.

[Milkman delivers]

Am I the only one that doesn't understand any of that?

[Controlled Chaos]

:banghead my head hurts Juggs

[YASNY]

Am I the only one that doesn't understand any of that?

 

Um ... no. The synopsis at the end makes sense to me, to an extent. The rest ...

[tonyho7476]

Um ... no.  The synopsis at the end makes sense to me, to an extent.  The rest ... 

 

Um, I like the Sox!

[Spiff]

I only understand the summaries. But if he says it's all in the numbers somewhere, I'll buy it I guess.

[Cerbaho-WG]

You've got to be kidding me, this little quote threw me for a loop:

 

Only 3 teams with solid 5 men rotations. The NYY might be sitting home this year. BAL's staff is for real.

 

Oh God, you're so f***ing disillusioned with stats geared to fantasy baseball that it's ridiculous. Bedard, Ponson and Lopez have ERAs hovering just under 6.00, but I guess since they can eat innings, and that Bedard is doing a hell of a job, that they're a great staff. Asinine. Everyone who "knows" baseball joined in on the circle jerk that is the Baltimore Orioles, only to forget that their starting rotation is filled with journeymen and overrated tubs of goo. The sample space was so small for projectioin that it killed me. Now that the Yankees have started beating up on teams that they should beat up on, they'll contend. The Orioles, bolstered by their amazing pitching, will flare out gloriously after the all-star break.

 

You can't just merely average Sagarin ratings to gauge how good such and such is. The weights are so disproportional that you have the ignorant analysis of Baltimore having a good 5 man rotation.

[DABearSoX]

ummm

[knightni]

Ohhh... I see...

 

Edited May 25, 2005 by knightni

[nitetrain8601]

que?

[JUGGERNAUT]

The numbers themselves are not as important as the separations are. The classes are not of equal value either. Rotation is far more important than the others.

 

The lists give you an idea of where your team stands in comparison to the other contenders. With respect to MIN:

36% better rotation

55% worse workhorse relief

19% worse lineup

66% worse bench

1% better general relief

 

That tells you we can make the best gains by improving our bench & workhorse relief. The addition of Thomas will have the dual effect of improving both the bench & the lineup. Referring to his 2002 RPG ranking of 22. The lineup will lag MIN by only 8% & the bench by 40% (addition of Everett).

 

Which leaves workhorse relief as the biggest need for improvement. The addition of a top 20 player like Wagner would erase the deficit & give the CHW a 20% edge. That should get them the division crown.

[nitetrain8601]

The numbers themselves are not as important as the separations are.  The classes are not of equal value either.  Rotation is far more important than the others.

 

The lists give you an idea of where your team stands in comparison to the other contenders.  With respect to MIN:

36% better rotation

55% worse workhorse relief

19% worse lineup

66% worse bench

1% better general relief

 

That tells you we can make the best gains by improving our bench & workhorse relief.  The addition of Thomas will have the dual effect of improving both the bench & the lineup.  Referring to his 2002 RPG ranking of 22. The lineup will lag MIN by only 8% & the bench by 40% (addition of Everett).

 

Which leaves workhorse relief as the biggest need for improvement.  The addition of a top 20 player like Wagner would erase the deficit & give the CHW a 20% edge.  That should get them the division crown.

 

You should work for the White Sox as a consultant.

[JUGGERNAUT]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I assume the quote you are referring to is :

 

4-BAL 1, 16, 38, 39, 40 : 26.8 avg

5-NYY 12, 25, 46 : 28 avg

 

Only 3 teams with solid 5 men rotations. The NYY might be sitting home this year. BAL's staff is for real.

 

BAL's staff resembles an ace, a good pitcher, & 3 guys pitching as good as Estaban Loiaza did in 2004. Is that a good staff? No, but it's a solid one that gives a team with their offense a chance to win a LOT of games.

 

If Bedard is facing RJ right now I'm putting my $ on Bedard.

The first two guys on both staffs look rock solid. The K's, era, MOB are all there.

But after that it's anybody's guess. Pavano looks like this yr's version of Vazquez.

Great in the NL, not so good in the AL. Wright's on the DL & his numbers coming off the DL are never very good & Brown is so injury prone that he's a sure bet to miss many starts. So when I look at the tail end of these rotations I see one team with guys who can hold the line & let their power offense win games & another which is almost entirely dependant on the team scoring 6 runs a night.

 

As for trade factor, normally I would say advantage NYY's but BAL I think may have more $ to spend this year. They certainly have more talent to trade with. As a contender I can't see even Clemens turning them down.

 

Speaking of Estaban Loaiza it appears his cutter is working again. Ranked 12th in NL he has 48K/66IP, & OPSv .661. He could probably go to BAL w/out changing residences.

 

The other thing I put a lot of weight on are SP L vs RP L.

BAL SP 10L, RP 6L vs NYY SP 15L, RP 6L. That's a decisive edge.

Can we agree Brown sucks? Look at the fill-ins for Wright (Wang, Henn).

As for Pavano ERA is misleading. It's why Sagarin looks at other numbers. His OPSv is .816!!!!!!!!!!! He's given up 11HR's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's why he's ranked 46th.

 

As for BAL's Lopez, his OPSv is .763 & he's given up just 6HR. That's why he's ranked 38th.

Edited May 25, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT