Baseball America's Draft Preview

[CWSGuy406]

Just got it in; I think it's been released via internet already (some of the articles), but they have the Sox taking Cesar Carrillo. They also have them looking strongly at Bogusevic, a local kid (Oak Lawn) -- who's at Tulane now, Jason, isn't that the kid you like?

 

Townsend is also a possibility, but BA has him going to the D-Rays (that'd be cool for them, getting two out of Rice's Big Three from last year).

 

Anyways, what do you guys think about Carrillo? He looks like he has some nice control, 17 BBs in 99 IP, but he's not listed in any of the BEST categories (Best Breaking Ball, Best Command, Best Fastball).

 

FWIW, they have that Ramos kid from Long Beach with the best command (Torra behind him -- dasox, you want the Sox to grab him, right?). Best Breaking Ball goes to the reliever, Hansen, with Townsend, Hochevar, and Torra also on the list. Torra also made the list (5th) for the best fastball. I didn't put any of the high schoolers down, 'cause I think it's unlikely the Sox grab a high schooler.

 

If I see something else interesting, I'll post it.

[thomsonmi]

Who do they have taking the shortstops, i.e., Tulo, Greene, ect...

[CWSGuy406]

They have...

 

Justin Upton to 'Zona (duh). But, he'll probably move to the OF, correct?

 

Tulo to Seattle, but if Alex Gordon is still there, they'll grab him.

 

CJ Henry to the Yanks.

 

Pennington to the Astros (pick 24).

 

Snyder to the Twinkies (though they also have him listed as a C).

[thomsonmi]

They have...

 

Justin Upton to 'Zona (duh).  But, he'll probably move to the OF, correct?

 

Tulo to Seattle, but if Alex Gordon is still there, they'll grab him.

 

CJ Henry to the Yanks.

 

Pennington to the Astros (pick 24).

 

Snyder to the Twinkies (though they also have him listed as a C).

 

Thanks.

[CWSGuy406]

Wow, I just noticed this -- they have scouting reports for the top 100 prospects, all of pretty good size, too. If I see anything interesting, I'll post it in an edit here.

 

Hmm, this on Townsend: "Though he has the repertoire to start, most teams project Townsend as a reliever because they say his intensity fits best in that role."

 

On Carrillo, they say he's a candidate to move up quickly through the minors. They have his fastball between 90-95, touching 96-97 occasionally. Real good movement on it. A plus changeup and a plus curveball, yet he throws his fastball so much that he tends to lose command of those two.

 

They rave about his fastball in the scouting report, yet it's not one of the top 5 in college? I dunno...

 

Last one, for now. On Matt Torra -- they say he's one of the most polished and complete pitchers in the draft. Also say he should move up quickly through the minors, with a shot at AA by the end of the year. 6'3, 225 lbs, with a 12-to-6 curveball and a fastball that touches 95. He pitched real poorly last year, and has been known for a heavy college workload, that's why it seems like he's down so (relatively) low.

Edited May 27, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[thomsonmi]

Wow, I just noticed this -- they have scouting reports for the top 100 prospects, all of pretty good size, too.  If I see anything interesting, I'll post it in an edit here.

 

I might have to go buy this issue. (edited out redundant "Wow")

Edited May 27, 2005 by thomsonmi

[GoodAsGould]

can you buy seperate magazines... and if so where are they at?

[fathom]

Carrillo is a Sox fan. I have a feeling he'll be our pick, as he would likely be a pretty easy sign. Most scouts feel like he has a very limited ceiling though.

[Cerbaho-WG]

can you buy seperate magazines... and if so where are they at?

 

They're always available at Barnes and Noble.

[Heads22]

I'll be happy with Carillo. I dunno, I'm just pulling for him.

[Rowand44]

isn't that the kid you like?

 

 

I'm not directing this at you because I do the same thing, I just think it's funny how we call these guys "kids" when we're younger then them. Ozzie Guillen syndrome I guess.

[CWSGuy406]

I'm not directing this at you because I do the same thing, I just think it's funny how we call these guys "kids" when we're younger then them. Ozzie Guillen syndrome I guess.

 

Ugh, I really try to avoid doing that, and I did it like three-four times in that post alone... :banghead

 

Yeah, when I'm 24, I can call the prospects "kids". Until then, I need a new word.

[Chisoxfn]

Just got it in; I think it's been released via internet already (some of the articles), but they have the Sox taking Cesar Carrillo.  They also have them looking strongly at Bogusevic, a local kid (Oak Lawn) -- who's at Tulane now, Jason, isn't that the kid you like?

 

Townsend is also a possibility, but BA has him going to the D-Rays (that'd be cool for them, getting two out of Rice's Big Three from last year). 

 

Anyways, what do you guys think about Carrillo?  He looks like he has some nice control, 17 BBs in 99 IP, but he's not listed in any of the BEST categories (Best Breaking Ball, Best Command, Best Fastball).

 

FWIW, they have that Ramos kid from Long Beach with the best command (Torra behind him -- dasox, you want the Sox to grab him, right?).  Best Breaking Ball goes to the reliever, Hansen, with Townsend, Hochevar, and Torra also on the list.  Torra also made the list (5th) for the best fastball.  I didn't put any of the high schoolers down, 'cause I think it's unlikely the Sox grab a high schooler.

 

If I see something else interesting, I'll post it.

I like Ramos a lot. Problem is if the Sox picked him they would be reaching according to the projections I've seen. Its too bad they didn't have a supplemental cause he'd be perfect there. Bogusevic is a really good southpaw as is Ricky Romero. Personally I think Bogusevic has a better build in terms of a major league pitcher and yes I do have a negative bias on Romero simply because he's so small and his delivery is more violent than I'd like (That and he throws so many damn breaking pitches...all that said he's got an insane amount of heart and has improved so much since coming to Fullerton).

 

As far as Cesar. The guy lost his first game ever in NCAA at one point this year (or at least I thought it was his first lost ever). The guy doesn't have amazing stuff, but he does everything well. Throws 3 good pitches (fastball, curve, change). Don't know if he has a slider, only saw him pitch in part of a game on TV. Good command and knowhow. Isn't very projectable in terms of adding velocity, etc.

[Chisoxfn]

Carillo doesn't throw 97, despite what BA would like you to believe. He can hit 94. He's more in the 92-94 range, 95 every once a while. Not a knock, but you see 97 and maybe guys throw a pitch or two a game like that, what I want to know is what he generally pitches at and he isn't generally in the upper 90's.

 

Still good stuff. I like him quite a bit. Of course I like Texas A&M's shortstop and I like Tyler Greene a lot. If he slides due to having Boras as his rep, I'd snag him in the 3rd.

[Rowand44]

I like Ramos a lot.  Problem is if the Sox picked him they would be reaching according to the projections I've seen.  Its too bad they didn't have a supplemental cause he'd be perfect there.  Bogusevic is a really good southpaw as is Ricky Romero.  Personally I think Bogusevic has a better build in terms of a major league pitcher and yes I do have a negative bias on Romero simply because he's so small and his delivery is more violent than I'd like (That and he throws so many damn breaking pitches...all that said he's got an insane amount of heart and has improved so much since coming to Fullerton). 

 

As far as Cesar.  The guy lost his first game ever in NCAA at one point this year (or at least I thought it was his first lost ever).  The guy doesn't have amazing stuff, but he does everything well.  Throws 3 good pitches (fastball, curve, change).  Don't know if he has a slider, only saw him pitch in part of a game on TV.  Good command and knowhow.  Isn't very projectable in terms of adding velocity, etc.

Correct, he had his first ever loss earlier this year.

[CWSGuy406]

Jason, what about Townsend? How's his fastball (I didn't see much on it, other than he had a good breaking ball)?

 

I'm watching his scouting video from last year, that's a filthy curveball he's got. Looks like a big bender with a sharp drop. I couldn't really tell about his fastball, on the video, he only threw it a couple of times. I hope they look at Townsend, though, if he projects to be as a reliever, that kind of sucks...

[Chisoxfn]

As far as that kid from Umass. I think he's another guy thats definately worth looking at. Considering he pitches in a smaller conference and for a not as well known baseball school, it will be a definate knock on him.

 

However, if he has the stuff that knock could be a reason why he's available later on in the 1st when he could of went sooner. I'm solely basing this on BA's scouting reports cause I've never seen Umass play any baseball, hell I didn't know they had a team, LOL (sorry Spiff).

 

One thing I stay away from is guys that had there arms destroyed in college. Some schools work there pitchers too hard and for whatever reason I've seen at least some of those guys come to the minors and there velocity tends to dissapear.

 

At the same time you have high schoolers that throw 97-98 but than get drafted and throw 93-94 cause they never worked hard enough and build up the stamina and endurance to be able to do those things over the long haul of a minor/major league season.

 

There are definately a lot of reasons why the MLB draft is such a crap shoot and why it pays to take care of your player development people and spend the money on the draft.

[Chisoxfn]

Jason, what about Townsend?  How's his fastball (I didn't see much on it, other than he had a good breaking ball)?

 

I'm watching his scouting video from last year, that's a filthy curveball he's got.  Looks like a big bender with a sharp drop.  I couldn't really tell about his fastball, on the video, he only threw it a couple of times.  I hope they look at Townsend, though, if he projects to be as a reliever, that kind of sucks...

Townsend has a dynomite arm. He's supposed to hit the mid 90's. That entire Rice trio was just filthy. One of the best collegiate staffs in a long time, imo.

 

There are some obvious concerns considering he's been out of competitive baseball for a year now and If I drafted him I'd want to be darn positive that he'd sign. I'm assuming people will have some recolection of what he was asking in his negotiations with the O's (I still don't get what had happened, but somehow those negotiations ended a while ago and i forget exactly why but I think it dealt with him and school and he went back for a class or something).

 

Back when he was pitching for Rice he was low to mid 90's. He had some workouts in the 90 MPH range, however recently he had a few where he was at 85-88 but I think that deals more with not being in baseball shape.

 

I did read somewhere that Baltimore totally botched negotiations and that Towsend is expected to be a relatively easy sign who will go for slot money.

 

Along with that hammer (Which is freaking awesome) he has a good changeup.

[CWSGuy406]

One thing I stay away from is guys that had there arms destroyed in college.  Some schools work there pitchers too hard and for whatever reason I've seen at least some of those guys come to the minors and there velocity tends to dissapear.

 

 

Here's their exact quote about the "strain" on his arm:

 

He had also pitched several games with pitch counts of more than 140 or 150 pitches -- a workload that has raised eyebrows among scouts.

 

I'm skeptical; he had a 4.90 ERA last year, and now he's down to under two? Plus questions about the college workload? I guess there's questions about all the guys we might possibly take at #15, so...

 

I guess that I really wish that at pick #15, Stephen Drew or Jered Weaver interrupts the conference call and say they're no longer represented by Boras.

 

I did read somewhere that Baltimore totally botched negotiations and that Towsend is expected to be a relatively easy sign who will go for slot money.

 

BA makes it sound like Baltimore really lowballed him, saying that they offered him, something like $500K less than what is supposed to be given/offered at where he was selected (eighth?).

Edited May 28, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[dasox24]

I just wanted to say thanks to CWSguy for posting all this info. Hopefully, in the next day or two I'll be able to get a copy of the preview myself.

[dasox24]

It sucks to hear what some of the negatives about Torra are, but I'd still be very happy if we drafted him. As for his numbers going from average to awesome, who knows what might have happened in the offseason. He could have had some very good instruction on how to throw a pitch differently or maybe even learned a new pitch that made him better. Maybe it was just a confidence thing, or maybe UMass got a new coach that knew how to motivate him or something. I don't believe that the #'s he put up this year are a fluke.

[DBAHO]

Here's a question. Jordan Danks falls to the 3rd round spot where the Sox are picking. He has said that he'll be going to Texas. If there was any chance at all that he would sign a deal however (e.g Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney), would you still pick him?

[Chisoxfn]

Here's a question. Jordan Danks falls to the 3rd round spot where the Sox are picking. He has said that he'll be going to Texas. If there was any chance at all that he would sign a deal however (e.g Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney), would you still pick him?

If the Sox were willing to offer him 750K or so yes, if they weren't than no.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Here's a question. Jordan Danks falls to the 3rd round spot where the Sox are picking. He has said that he'll be going to Texas. If there was any chance at all that he would sign a deal however (e.g Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney), would you still pick him?

 

The Sox would have to cut a predraft deal for 1st round money for Danks. With a smaller number of picks this year, the Sox cannot afford to pick players who aren't sure whether they want to play pro ball or not, especially in the first several rounds.

[GoodAsGould]

There are some obvious concerns considering he's been out of competitive baseball for a year now and If I drafted him I'd want to be darn positive that he'd sign.  I'm assuming people will have some recolection of what he was asking in his negotiations with the O's (I still don't get what had happened, but somehow those negotiations ended a while ago and i forget exactly why but I think it dealt with him and school and he went back for a class or something).

 

 

I did read somewhere that Baltimore totally botched negotiations and that Towsend is expected to be a relatively easy sign who will go for slot money. 

 

 

Im pretty sure that he tried to cheat the system by going to school and signing with the O's and because of that instead he didnt get to go to school or sign?