Thomas, White Sox should hold off Twins

[greasywheels121]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3695480

 

Thomas, White Sox should hold off Twins

Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com

 

The Chicago White Sox have the best record in baseball, and they've held first place in the AL Central since opening day.

 

The second-place Minnesota Twins, meanwhile, were the presumptive favorites to win the division and have crafted the third-best record in the AL. So given the surprising nature of the White Sox's success and the lofty expectations surrounding the Twins, it's worth exploring how the Central might play out the rest of the way.

 

First, let's compare some key indicators to date:

 

 

Looking beyond the records, the White Sox still hold up fairly well. The run differentials are essentially the same, and the Sox have played a slightly tougher schedule to date. The rest of the way, Chicago has a modestly easier go of it, with a narrowly less demanding docket of opponents and a more accommodating home/road slate. Of course, they also have a five-game lead at the moment. Given all these factors, it's perhaps a little surprising that Baseball Prospectus gives the Pale Hose only a 45.2 percent chance of winning the division, while the Twins come in with a 39.0 percent chance. So let's peer a bit more deeply into the numbers …

 

At present, the White Sox rank fifth in the AL in runs scored and third in the AL in fewest runs allowed (despite playing in one of the best hitter's parks in the league). So it's the pitching and defense that's ferrying the Sox to victory. Again according to Baseball Prospects, the Sox lead the AL in defensive efficiency, which is a measure of how often a team's fielders convert a batted fair ball into an out. Meanwhile, Chicago ranks third in the AL in starters' ERA and fourth in relievers' ERA. That's a fairly balanced approach to keeping runs off the board. Considering the strength of the team defense, these trends will probably hold.

 

As for the Twins, they rank eighth in the AL in runs scored and first in fewest runs allowed. Obviously, the Twins are also succeeding by dint of run prevention. What we can glean from these rankings is that if the Twins are to make up ground on the White Sox, it'll likely be done by some combination of an improved offensive attack on the part of Minnesota or a declining offense in Chicago. There's one person who complicates these hopes on the part of Twins partisans: Frank Thomas.

 

Thomas, truly one of the great sluggers of his era and (if there's any justice) a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, has missed much of the season because of a serious ankle injury. However, he was able to return to the lineup late last month and since then has been lava-hot at the plate, batting .333 AVG/.417 OBP/.905 SLG over his first 25 plate appearances of the season. Obviously, he's not going to maintain that level of production, but, if he's able to remain reasonably healthy (no safe assumption), he'll give the Sox what they sorely need in the lineup: power and on-base skills. While the Sox rank fifth in the AL in runs scored, they rank only seventh in OBP and fifth in slugging percentage. That latter figure looks much less impressive once you consider that U.S. Cellular has been the best home run park in the AL over the last three seasons.

 

So how likely is it that Thomas will remain productive? Well, don't forget that at the time of his season-ending ankle injury in 2004, Thomas was slugging .563 and leading the AL in walks and OBP. Since 2003, which comprises roughly his last 1,000 plate appearances, he's put up a batting line of .270 AVG/.404 OBP/.571 SLG. When not hindered by injury, the Big Hurt can still rake. No other Chicago regular has an SLG of .500, and no other Sox regular has an OBP of higher than .361. So Thomas is just what the Sox need: a true fulcrum in the lineup.

 

As for what the Twins can do to make up offensive ground, there's not much. They're not likely to be in hot pursuit of an impact bat at the deadline, and no lineup regular is drastically under-performing thus far. Keeping Luis Rivas off the field and hoping for modest power spikes from Lew Ford, Mike Cuddyer and Justin Morneau are about all they can do.

 

It's certainly worth noting that the Twins and White Sox will play head-to-head 13 times after the All-Star break, so the chances to make up ground will be there for Minnesota. However, considering the preponderance of the evidence (record, current standings, run differential, strength of schedule, remaining strength of schedule), the best hope the Twins have for catching the White Sox is an injury to Frank Thomas and notable success in those 13 head-to-head encounters. Failing those two occurrences, the White Sox will win the division.

 

It's an oversimplification of sorts, but as Frank Thomas goes, so goes the Central.

[Credepopsup]

I don't think much of Dayn Perry.

 

The guy changes his mind hourly.

[whitesox91403]

Joe Morgan also said last night during the broadcast that he doesn't think that Minnesota will catch The Sox either.

[Balta1701]

Anyone know how Cleveland's schedule fits into that picture?

[JUGGERNAUT]

Defining the Twins by what they have accomplished in the first half is a bad strategy. How many times since 2001 have the Sox led the Twins near or after the break? How many times have the Twins emerged as one of the best teams in the MLB in the 2nd half?

 

It won't be weakness in the Twins that gives the Sox the division but rather great improvement by the Tigs & the Indians to challenge the Twins. At this point while both of those teams are still finding themselves the more we can pad our lead the better. Both of them are poised to manufacture runs in bunches in the 2nd half. Their surprising improvement in pitching

will make them more competitive against the Twinkees.