Jason Schdimt to the Sox??

[BlackBetsy]

No you don't "gut" it for a 2 month rental.  You gut it for the best pitcher in the NL the past few seasons, who at $8+ million this season and $10 million next season would be a complete steal with the current prices for SP on the FA market.  Pavano got $10 mil and isnt half the pitcher Schmidt is.  Schmidt has been a top 3 pitcher in the majors for the past 3-4 seasons.  You don't find pitchers like this available, ever...This is all barring his is completely healthy, and if the Sox scouts believe that he is healthy, then you get him.  No one can match Schmidt-Buehrle-Garcia in the playoffs.  No one...

And if someone signs Schmidt, you get a sandwich pick at worst...like Gio Gonzalez.

[beck72]

The Sox can let Schmidt go at the end of the season (team option). That's really not a problem.

 

That, I didn't know. Could make a big difference.

 

the Sox probably wouldn't give Schmidt Jon Garland's money. But if they can cut ties with him [or if he proves to be a difference maker and gives the sox some hardware, they could keep him and move one of the Cubans], I could see something like this go down.

[sircaffey]

That, I didn't know. Could make a big difference.

 

the Sox probably wouldn't give Schmidt  Jon Garland's money. But if they can cut ties with him [or if he proves to be a difference maker and gives the sox some hardware, they could keep him and move one of the Cubans], I could see something like this go down.

 

I would hope that the Sox wouldn't throw away Schmidt's money either. $10 million for Schmidt is a steal. I can't believe a pitcher like him is reportedly available. He's a staff anchor. Schilling-Johnson...Prior-Wood...Schmidt-Buehrle...........

 

EDIT: Prior-Wood meaning playoff performance only...

Edited June 24, 2005 by sircaffey

[beck72]

I would hope that the Sox wouldn't throw away Schmidt's money either.  $10 million for Schmidt is a steal.  I can't believe a pitcher like him is reportedly available.  He's a staff anchor.  Schilling-Johnson...Prior-Wood...Schmidt-Buehrle...........

 

EDIT:  Prior-Wood meaning playoff performance only...

 

My concerns about getting a SP like Schmidt who's signed past this year was that the Sox wouldn't have money for signing Garland. That in itself could alter team chemistry by briunging in a guy, throwing money at him, thereby leaving out deserving guys [AJ, Garland, etc]. Yet the team option leaves the sox an out.

And esp. if Hermanson and AJ could vouch for Schmidt, I wouldn't have the same concerns I had earlier.

 

Still, I'd expect the sox to lose at least 2 top prospects, and another in the top 10-15.

[Balta1701]

Found it!

 

I found the article I was looking for all day yesterday...on how a pitcher's ERA changes on average when he moves from league to league.

 

It's basically exactly what I said...from CNNSI

 

That made me wonder: Just how much of a lift is it for Martinez to get out of the AL and, specifically, the powerful AL East? I looked at all pitchers who made at least 20 starts in the AL in 2003 and then pitched in the NL in 2004. That turned up eight starters, four of whom left the Yankees: Roger Clemens, Joe Kennedy, Cory Lidle, Andy Pettitte, John Thomson, Ismael Valdez, Jeff Weaver and David Wells. In all eight cases, the pitcher posted a lower ERA in the NL than he did in the AL. Here are the cumulative numbers for the AL-to-NL pitchers:

From AL to NL

Year  League  W-L  ERA  IP  BB/9  K/9

2003  American  96-82  4.95  1,450.2  2.2  5.8

2004  National  98-65  4.00  1,455  2.6  6.1

 

Getting out of the AL was worth almost a full run in ERA (0.95). As expected, the pitchers struck out more batters but also walked more, perhaps owing to the additional intentional walks created by the pitcher's spot.

 

But if getting out of the AL significantly improves a pitcher's ERA, then shouldn't the reverse move -- jumping into the DH-loaded AL -- inflate the numbers? Seven pitchers who made at least 20 starts in the NL in 2003 tried their luck in the AL in 2004: Miguel Batista, Kevin Brown, Matt Kinney, Damian Moss, Jeriome Robertson, Curt Schilling and Javier Vazquez. (Two more Yankees in this group.) How did they do? In all seven cases, their ERA went up. Take a look at the cumulative numbers:

From NL to AL

Year  League  W-L  ERA  IP  BB/9  K/9

2003  National  79-68  3.64  1,269.1  2.9  7.6

2004  American  56-37  4.57  793.2  2.8  6.5

 

Oddly, or perhaps not, getting out of the NL added nearly a full run to their ERA (0.93), or almost exactly as much as the eight AL-to-NL jumpers saved in switching leagues. Again, they walked batters and struck out batters at slightly higher rates in the NL.

 

What does this mean for Martinez? He posted a 3.90 ERA for Boston last year with 227 strikeouts. Is it reasonable to expect Martinez to pitch to an ERA a shade under 3.00 for the Mets with 240 strikeouts? Absolutely. And that is a Cy Young caliber season. (As an aside, check Pedro's NL-to-AL switch in 1999: His ERA increased by -- surprise! -- 0.99 and his strikeouts decreased by 54.)

[SoxFan1]

Buehrle/Schmidt/Garland = Best 1-2-3 in the past decade?

Edited June 24, 2005 by SoxFan1

[ChWRoCk2]

Buehrle/Schmidt/Garland = Best 1-2-3 in the past decade?

mulder hudson zito

[sircaffey]

My concerns about getting a SP like Schmidt who's signed past this year was that the Sox wouldn't have money for signing Garland. That in itself could alter team chemistry by briunging in a guy, throwing money at him, thereby leaving out deserving guys [AJ, Garland, etc]. Yet the team option leaves the sox an out.

And esp. if Hermanson and AJ could vouch for Schmidt, I wouldn't have the same concerns I had earlier.

 

Still, I'd expect the sox to lose at least 2 top prospects, and another in the top 10-15.

 

The option also give the Sox the ability to trade either Schmidt or most likely Contreras to free up the money AND get some of the prospects that we gave up to get Schmidt in the first place. I think it's worth the gamble to trade some top spects for Schmidt and a good shot at the World Series, and then have the option of either keeping him and spending extra money for Garland or picking up Schmidt's option and then trading him for some top spects to replace the ones we lost. Or just getting rid of Contreras and his $6 million and keeping Schmidt...So many good options that KW could do after this season, making this trade very friendly...

[SoxFan1]

mulder hudson zito 

Thats a toughy......

[beck72]

The option also give the Sox the ability to trade either Schmidt or most likely Contreras to free up the money AND get some of the prospects that we gave up to get Schmidt in the first place.  I think it's worth the gamble to trade some top spects for Schmidt and a good shot at the World Series, and then have the option of either keeping him and spending extra money for Garland or picking up Schmidt's option and then trading him for some top spects to replace the ones we lost.  Or just getting rid of Contreras and his $6 million and keeping Schmidt...So many good options that KW could do after this season, making this trade very friendly...

 

That's why something like this could work. It's to win in 2005. Everyone on the roster would know it, even if someone had to move to the pen. But it doesn't saddle the sox with a huge salary if it doesn't work out.

[sircaffey]

Thats a toughy......

 

How about Schmidt-Buehrle-Garland-Garcia....Best 4-some in the last decade?

 

Or

 

Schmidt-Buehrle-Garland-Garcia-Contreras...Best 5 man rotation in the last decade?

[SoxFan1]

How about Schmidt-Buehrle-Garland-Garcia....Best 4-some in the last decade?

 

Or

 

Schmidt-Buehrle-Garland-Garcia-Contreras...Best 5 man rotation in the last decade?

Buehrle 1st.

[sircaffey]

Buehrle 1st.

 

Whatever...Doesn't matter to me.

[GoodAsGould]

It's not a matter of getting a proven ace. Or not wanting one. But the Sox adding a SP who has a big contract when they already have 5 under contract [with Garland due a big raise] isn't smart for the future of the club.

 

It's also a matter of filling all the holes with the available minor leaguers the sox have. The going rate per ESPN was 3 prospects for Schmidt [talking anderson, Bmac and a AA stud]. Where does the talent for getting a top bullpen arm come from then? Where do the minor leaguers come form getting a bench bat like JT Snow? Sox can make a move for the WS w/o selling the entire farm system

 

 

When has KW ever looked at the future he is always about winning now and especially with this team almost a lock to make the playoffs even if they play .500 rest of the way you bet KW has his eyes on the gold. Once Gload comes back he becomes our good bench bat so dont need to worry about that and as for the bullpen arm, well when the playoffs start we go to a 4 man rotation of Schmidt, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland.... leaving both the Cubans in the bullpen to go along with Cotts, Politte, Marte, and Hermy.

 

Basicly with the team we have now, id be happy if we went to the playoffs and at least won a playoff series... preferably even make the WS... but with Schmidt you have to expect at least you make the WS and almost expect to actual win the whole thing. We would have the best playoff rotation and bullpen with Schmidt.

 

I know El Duque has been clutch in the past btw in the playoffs but this isnt the same El Duque of past... his whip is like 1.63 the past 2 years I think its been under 1.30.... And with the way he changes speed and uses different angles he would be awesome out of the pen.

Edited June 24, 2005 by SoxFan101

[SoxFan1]

When has KW ever looked at the future he is always about winning now and especially with this team almost a lock to make the playoffs even if they play .500 rest of the way you bet KW has his eyes on the gold.  Once Gload comes back he becomes our good bench bat so dont need to worry about that and as for the bullpen arm, well when the playoffs start we go to a 4 man rotation of Schmidt, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland.... leaving both the Cubans in the bullpen to go along with Cotts, Politte, Marte, and Hermy.

 

Basicly with the team we have now, id be happy if we went to the playoffs and at least won a playoff series... preferably even make the WS... but with Schmidt you have to expect at least you make the WS and almost expect to actual win the whole thing.  We would have the best playoff rotation and bullpen with Schmidt.

Well said 101. That is 4 starters who can go out and win you a series right there. With that kinda rotation, I don't think anyone could beat us in a 7 game series and definitely not a 5 game series.

[JUGGERNAUT]

There's a lot in this thread so let me take it issue by issue:

 

1) I too believe the Astro's will be buyers. Like the White Sox they have been able to maintain a productive farm system for many years. One of the best. They have chips to deal with. They need a LF & LH arm in the pen most of all. They will not want Everett back because they need someone who can defend their ill-designed OF the rest of the year. Everett can't do that. Perhaps Moises Alou can.

 

2) I would not rule out Pettite to the White Sox. It's not out of the question

for him to waive his no-trade clause to move from the NLC to the ALC to play for the best team in MLB. Even if Hou is able to get the LF they desperately need & make a run at it the NL has a dozen teams in contention for that WC. The odds of making the post are slim. Whereas if the WhiteSox have 60 wins before the break are all but guranteed. When you consider the White Sox have their current rotation signed for 2006 it's unlikely this is a 1 yr fling. That may be enough to entice Pettite.

 

3) NL vs AL trades for pitchers. The main reason why on avg it's a full run difference in transition from NL to AL is because on avg spots 6-9 in NL lineups produce .200 OPS less than the AL. That's a significant difference!

The guys that do best going from the NL to the AL are the ones who have low OOP against the top & middle of the orders. Not just the bottom.

 

I've not looked at Schmidt's #'s in detail so I don't know but I will say that I am concerned over his transition of being an ace in SF & #4 with the White Sox. Yes it does matter. Not to the fan, but to the pitcher. There is a major difference in being a #1/#2 prestige & pride wise than a #3/#4. How many ace's have been traded in mid-season to fill a spot in the rear of the rotation? I can't recall many.

 

If you were Schmidt wouldn't you expect to the #2 guy on this staff? Wouldn't you want to follow Buehrle (the most consistent quality starter in the last 4 yrs)? Even worse how would you feel following Contreras?

 

I know there's that theory that if we don't get him a WC/div contender in the AL will & then will have to face him. That's a tough call. There is some logic in playing keep away. It's why GM's get ulcers when their team contends.

 

I've already made an argument backing Lilly with what he's accomplished against the WC/div contenders we face this year. He can be had for a 1/10th of the cost in $ commitments & probably a 1/4th of the cost in talent vs Schmidt.

 

Schmidt's numbers:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...0&type=pitching

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/...ching&year=2005

Strong numbers. Look at what he's done against the middle of lineups.

The odds are good he's going to do well in the AL.

His 03, 04 numbers are unreal .. it's just his 05 that are suspect.

 

He started out the year with 4/5 good/quality starts. Then 2 bad starts before going on the DL. Then 4 bad starts in a row followed by 2 dominant ones (16IP, 0R, 15K's).

 

He'll cost you $5M towards 2005 & then you can spend $10.5 in 2006 to keep him or $3M to buy him out. You don't trade for an ace like Schmidt & let him walk unless he fails to perform. I don't see that happening. This all but seals Koney's fate because there is no why they are signing him to a $50/5 deal if they trade for Schmidt. Without Koney you have to re-sign Thomas. There's no way you'll pick up the option on Frank but you can work a new deal with him & use the $3M buyout as part of it.

 

Trading for Schmidt means depleting the farm system. No other way.

Anderson, Sweeney, Anderson would be the core. It's giving me an ulcer just thinking about it. It's like putting the house down as collateral at a chance to strike gold in Vegas. As a fantasy GM I don't think I can do it.

[SoxFan1]

Who the hell said Schmidt would follow Contreras? He is our #2 if he come here.

 

Buehrle, Schmidt, Garland, Garcia, Contreras

[Milkman delivers]

Everett can't do that.  Perhaps Moises Alou can. 

 

Trading for Schmidt means depleting the farm system.  No other way.

Anderson, Sweeney, Anderson would be the core.  It's giving me an ulcer just thinking about it. It's like putting the house down as collateral at a chance to strike gold in Vegas.  As a fantasy GM I don't think I can do it.

 

That's ridiculous. Alou is probably as bad as Everett in the field.

 

About the other thing, Schmidt is an ace. Give up anything to get him. I'm sick of people caring more about prospects than proven talent. Jesus Christ, he's Jason f***ing Schmidt.

[kdhargo]

That's ridiculous.  Alou is probably as bad as Everett in the field.

 

About the other thing, Schmidt is an ace.  Give up anything to get him.  I'm sick of people caring more about prospects than proven talent.  Jesus Christ, he's Jason f***ing Schmidt.

 

OF prospects are easy to find and develop. If they want Sweeney, BMac and another mid-tier prospect, pull the trigger.

[SoxFan1]

That's ridiculous.  Alou is probably as bad as Everett in the field.

 

About the other thing, Schmidt is an ace.  Give up anything to get him.  I'm sick of people caring more about prospects than proven talent.  Jesus Christ, he's Jason f***ing Schmidt.

Thats post of the year worthy to me...

[Spod=Ratings]

Who the hell said Schmidt would follow Contreras? He is our #2 if he come here.

 

Buehrle, Schmidt, Garland, Garcia, Contreras

 

I think shcmidt has to earn a number 2 spot this year. Until then garcia and garland go before him.

[TheHammer]

Why would Schmidt care who he pitches next to? He is going to pitch every 5th day anyway. That is just a bizarre concern.

[GoodAsGould]

He is going to pitch when evr he would normally wherevr that lands him in our rotation... and if/when we make the playoffs he has to be our #1 or #2

[CanOfCorn]

Why are we talking about all or nothing? why is it either a #1 starter like Schmidt, Oswalt or Pettitte OR a #5/bullpen guy like Lilly? There's gotta be some middle of the rotation guys out there. Someone that can slot in the #3 or #4 place? That can eat some starter innings or do some long relief, if needed. In other words, there's gotta be someone that won't cost as much as Schmidt or be as iffy as Lilly.

[beck72]

When has KW ever looked at the future he is always about winning now and especially with this team almost a lock to make the playoffs even if they play .500 rest of the way you bet KW has his eyes on the gold.  Once Gload comes back he becomes our good bench bat so dont need to worry about that and as for the bullpen arm, well when the playoffs start we go to a 4 man rotation of Schmidt, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland.... leaving both the Cubans in the bullpen to go along with Cotts, Politte, Marte, and Hermy.

 

Basicly with the team we have now, id be happy if we went to the playoffs and at least won a playoff series... preferably even make the WS... but with Schmidt you have to expect at least you make the WS and almost expect to actual win the whole thing.  We would have the best playoff rotation and bullpen with Schmidt.

 

I know El Duque has been clutch in the past btw in the playoffs but this isnt the same El Duque of past... his whip is like 1.63 the past 2 years I think its been under 1.30.... And with the way he changes speed and uses different angles he would be awesome out of the pen.

 

I took back a little of what i said. I didn't realize there was an option yr for Schmidt in 2006. So the sox wouldn't be saddled with him if things didn't work out. The Sox would have options, such as picking up his option and then trading him.

 

But something like getting an ace like Schmidt is making a lot of sense. I can see a scenario where Jon and MB come down to earth a little and then the sox could be scrambling