The Gigantic all encompassing TRADE THREAD

[Milkman delivers]

To me, trading just minor leaguers for Schmidt or Barnett makes no sense, even if SF or the Marlins went for it.

 

I'll never understand this way of thinking.

 

We can make the team better without removing any pieces from the present team, and it's a bad idea?

[Balta1701]

Could anyone guarentee that any trade will guarentee the Sox a World Series?  Its all risk/reward.  Houston as a middleish market team had to take a chance on the best pitcher in the game at the time to try to get into their small window at winning a title.

No one could guarantee that any trade will win a team a W.S., and that's the real problem here isn't it. You could trade for the best player and pitcher in the game and still lose to the Red Sox in game 7 after going up 3-0.

 

My point is this; if you want to build a team that can really make a multi-year run, be good for a while, and give your team several shots to get over the hump and actually win a W.S., the solution is not found in making the 1 big trade for that 1 guy, it's found in developing your own talent and finding the right pieces around hit.

 

The real key here is cost - we're a middle market team, so every player we have on our roster who makes less than $3 million per year is a player who opens up room under our salary limits. This means young guys are a necessity.

 

If we want to be able to resign Buehrle, Garland, and Garcia, we need a couple guys like Gonzalez and McCarthy who are young and who haven't yet hit arbitration/free agency. Otherwise, we'll be looking at needing $50-60 million to hold together the rotation alone, and for this team, that's just not practical. The same thing goes for guys like Anderson and Sweeney - if we trade them away now, then during the years that they're good an inexpensive, we'll be left with either a hole in the order or a really inexpensive sub. And that's just not a good place to be.

 

If we trade away guys like McCarthy, Anderson, etc., we're dooming ourselves to mediocrity in the hope that nothing will go wrong in that 1 year that we really shoot for the stars. We're hoping there won't be an Aaron Boone who makes some magical hit to beat us, or there won't be a Josh Beckett for another team who just gets on a roll and can't be stopped.

 

Personally, I think we're far better off holding pat and building, unless something comes along really cheap. And for the people we're talking about here, the cost will be very high indeed.

[VAfan]

Fair enough on the OBP, but I doubt Uribe ends the year so low.  I'd bet his OPS would end up above .700, too -- but he hasn't been very good at the plate.  That said, I don't expect Uribe to get on base.  I expect him to make up for that with a better-than-average SLG%, which he hasn't done this year either -- but I expect it in the second half.

 

One more thing.  In talking about what someone said earlier, I think adding another bat is more important than another arm.  And, to get Aubrey Huff, I'd start the package with Josh Fields.  Obviously, there'd have to be more than just him, but I'd certainly be willing to sacrafice last year's first-round pick to get Huff...

 

And Uribe is not = Vizquel defensively.  Uribe is much, much better than Vizquel defensively.  Uribe has a better arm and more range...

 

Vizquel has 3 errors to Uribe's 8, and has turned the same number of DPs (albeit in more innings, but with a different pitching staff). Plus his ZR and Range factor numbers are basically as good. I don't doubt Uribe has a stronger arm, but overall we wouldn't be hurt defensively with Vizquel in there. As for hitting, good pitching eats up Uribe so I see him as an auto out in the postseason. Vizquel is much more difficult to get out.

 

As for Huff, I was once for him, but now I don't see a position. He's too weak defensively to supplant Crede at 3B, and he's not better than Everett as a lefty backup to Dye, and if Ross Gload comes back and isn't traded, he's not better than Gload as a lefty backup to Konerko.

[ZoomSlowik]

The point of the Royals/Colorado thing was a response to the comment that he can't win close games. Shutting down Colorado in Coors is fairly impressive, since that is an extreme hitter's park. As for the bad teams comments, he also dominated Cleveland's highly touted lineup early in the year, Detroit's lineup which was similarly touted, and the Cubs. He's had 4 starts against what I would call good teams. He allowed two earned runs in a short outing against Minnesota (high pitch count in the 5th), 4 earned in 6 1/3 against Baltimore, 3 earned in 7 at Anaheim, and 4 runs (2 earned) against Anaheim. He didn't exactly get shallacked in any of them, and if the Sox had any offense in those games the could have gotten him wins in a couple of them (lost by 1 in two of them, the pen got spanked in one of the Anaheim games, he got the loss in the other).

[Balta1701]

I think Johnson pitched great for them after they traded for him.  I don't see how your question has any relevance.

 

If the Sox picked up Schmidt and he pitched great, but the rest of the team went into a funk, it would still be right move.  You pick up a guy hoping that he will help the team, and Johnson did (if I'm not mistaken).

I think my question is very relevant, because of the last piece I wrote.

 

Things happen. Teams go into funks at the wrong time. There's an enormous amount of random variability in baseball. So if you trade away 3 solid players/future all stars for a 1 year shot at a guy, you run the very high risk that something will go wrong - an injury, a great performance by someone else, etc., and you end up costing yourself chances to compete for a W.S. for several years.

 

If you're in the race and in the playoffs for 3 or 4 years, then your chances of having 1 of your guys be the one who steps up and dominates the series dramatically improves.

 

This is the relevance of my question - if we trade 3 all stars for some guy because we think he's the missing link who can win us a W.S., but then something happens and we don't win the W.S., we've hurt our chances for multiple years and gotten nothing out of it.

Edited June 29, 2005 by Balta1701

[beck72]

If Contreras can be traded, then why not make him part of a deal for Schmidt?  He's a more proven commodity than BMac, Anderson, Gload, or anyone else we might include in a deal with SF. 

 

And why do you think I want to make this deal?  To improve our chances for a WS with Schmidt and Vizquel instead of Contreras and Uribe.  If we added the SF guys, there would be no role for Contreras or Uribe, so why not try to make them cornerstones of a deal.

 

To me, trading just minor leaguers for Schmidt or Barnett makes no sense, even if SF or the Marlins went for it.

 

SF might want Contreras over BMac in a Schmidt trade. They aren't completely rebuilding. SF still wants to win in 2006.

[VAfan]

It was only half a season worth of stats.  That's not enough for Gload to have decent trade value.

 

I think he has some value as a throw in to a team like SF which is going to be looking for a replacement for JT Snow next year. I'm not saying he's the key to the deal.

[Balta1701]

I think he has some value as a throw in to a team like SF which is going to be looking for a replacement for JT Snow next year.  I'm not saying he's the key to the deal.

This team needs a backup 1b more than it needs any other piece...thereby allowing us to either rest Konerko every so often or more importantly pinch run for Konerko in late innings of close games.

 

If Gload is lost, then we absolutely better find someone who can play 1b. If Paulie walks to lead off the 8th inning in the ALCS when we're down by 1 run, do you want him running or Willie Harris running?

[upnorthsox]

I think there's a reason KW only offered him 2 years in the offseason.

 

Yea but then Schmidt wasn't part of the package then either.

Edited June 29, 2005 by upnorthsox

[VAfan]

Vizquel has committed 3 errors this year, Uribe has committed 8.  Uribe has a lower "range factor" than Vizquel.  Vizquel has both more attempts and more putouts.  They have roughly an equal number of double plays turned.  The stats don't show Uribe being a better SS.

 

I think he can become one the longer he stays at short, but he's certainly not better than Vizquel, not yet.

 

Hey, I posted this exact point in response to the same post before I saw what you wrote.

[Rowand44]

SF might want Contreras over BMac in a Schmidt trade. They aren't completely rebuilding. SF still wants to win in 2006.

I would say I highly doubt it but Contreras has atleast 12 years on Bmac so that might make Sabean more excited.

[southsideirish71]

No one could guarantee that any trade will win a team a W.S., and that's the real problem here isn't it.  You could trade for the best player and pitcher in the game and still lose to the Red Sox in game 7 after going up 3-0.

 

My point is this; if you want to build a team that can really make a multi-year run, be good for a while, and give your team several shots to get over the hump and actually win a W.S., the solution is not found in making the 1 big trade for that 1 guy, it's found in developing your own talent and finding the right pieces around hit.

 

The real key here is cost - we're a middle market team, so every player we have on our roster who makes less than $3 million per year is a player who opens up room under our salary limits.  This means young guys are a necessity.

 

If we want to be able to resign Buehrle, Garland, and Garcia, we need a couple guys like Gonzalez and McCarthy who are young and who haven't yet hit arbitration/free agency.  Otherwise, we'll be looking at needing $50-60 million to hold together the rotation alone, and for this team, that's just not practical.  The same thing goes for guys like Anderson and Sweeney - if we trade them away now, then during the years that they're good an inexpensive, we'll be left with either a hole in the order or a really inexpensive sub.  And that's just not a good place to be.

 

If we trade away guys like McCarthy, Anderson, etc., we're dooming ourselves to mediocrity in the hope that nothing will go wrong in that 1 year that we really shoot for the stars.  We're hoping there won't be an Aaron Boone who makes some magical hit to beat us, or there won't be a Josh Beckett for another team who just gets on a roll and can't be stopped.

 

Personally, I think we're far better off holding pat and building, unless something comes along really cheap.  And for the people we're talking about here, the cost will be very high indeed.

 

I heard this same banter last year. Oh no we cant trade our future away. We will be trading a future phenom catcher and the best prospect in the majors, Reed.

 

Prospects are Prospects. Until they perform at the major league level they are nothing but fodder. Felix Diaz lit up the minors last year with his pitching. He got up here and wet the bed. Arnie Munoz, Danny Wright, Lorenzo Barcelo, Rauch, etc, etc. We have sat here for years watching highly touted prospect after another wet the bed when they come up. Some of them never to be heard from again.

 

If you are so worried about next year and beyond. Do you really thing we are going to resign the Count for his current salary if he sits status quo? Do you think we are going to pick up the 10 million dollar option for Thomas next year?

 

The money will be there. I would rather have a few years of being average, than to sit on our laurels and not make a trade because A.) We have the best record in baseball and dont need to(See the 116 Win Seattle Mariners) or B.) We will mess up our long line of divisional championships.

 

The timing of having the Yanks on a down year, and the other teams are beatable only comes once in a while. The possibility of winning it this year is a very good possibility. I say go for it all this year. We havent been to a WS since 1959( I wasnt alive for that one) and we havent won it since 1917(see 1959).

[DBAHO]

Gotta remember some positives with the Count though like these;

 

AWAY - .194/.289/.339

.BAA - .225

 

One bad month, shouldn't take away the 2 great months he had to start the season. If we need a SP in a playoff series away from the Cell, he'd be ideal if Buerhle, Garland or Garcia couldn't take the hill.

[ZoomSlowik]

The problem is we'd be stuck with Vizquel for two more years after this for $6 mil per. That's money that the Sox could use to retain more valuable pieces like Garland, A.J., Konerko, and Thomas. Uribe is a lot cheaper. Vizquel is definitely a better hitter (he's a bit above his career marks again this year though), but I think the D is about a draw. Plus, the Giants don't really have a need to move him, or Schmidt for that matter. If they're going to try to compete next year when Bonds and Benitez get back, those two guys are key pieces. That's why I'll believe Schmidt gets dealt when I see it.

[Balta1701]

Reed was expendable last year because we had 2 guys named Anderson and Sweeney coming in behind him.

 

Show me who's coming in behind those 2 and I'll start saying a trade is fine. Ditto McCarthy.

[Rowand44]

Gotta remember some positives with the Count though like these;

 

AWAY - .194/.289/.339

.BAA - .225

 

One bad month, shouldn't take away the 2 great months he had to start the season. If we need a SP in a playoff series away from the Cell, he'd be ideal if Buerhle, Garland or Garcia couldn't take the hill.

I don't want Contreras going anywhere, he's been great all year he's run into a little rough patch his past 2 of 3 starts but like you said that shouldnt' take away from what he's done all season.

[southsideirish71]

Reed was expendable last year because we had 2 guys named Anderson and Sweeney coming in behind him.

 

Show me who's coming in behind those 2 and I'll start saying a trade is fine.  Ditto McCarthy.

 

 

you are not trading both Sweeney and Anderson.

Edited June 29, 2005 by southsideirish71

[DBAHO]

I heard this same banter last year.  Oh no we cant trade our future away.  We will be trading a future phenom catcher and the best prospect in the majors, Reed. 

 

Prospects are Prospects.  Until they perform at the major league level they are nothing but fodder.  Felix Diaz lit up the minors last year with his pitching.  He got up here and wet the bed. Arnie Munoz, Danny Wright, Lorenzo Barcelo, Rauch, etc, etc.  We have sat here for years watching highly touted prospect after another wet the bed when they come up.  Some of them never to be heard from again.

 

If you are so worried about next year and beyond.  Do you really thing we are going to resign the Count for his current salary if he sits status quo?  Do you think we are going to pick up the 10 million dollar option for Thomas next year?   

 

The money will be there.  I would rather have a few years of being average, than to sit on our laurels and not make a trade because A.) We have the best record in baseball and dont need to(See the 116 Win Seattle Mariners)  or B.) We will mess up our long line of divisional championships.

 

The timing of having the Yanks on a down year, and the other teams are beatable only comes once in a while. The possibility of winning it this year is a very good possibility. I say go for it all this year.  We havent been to a WS since 1959( I wasnt alive for that one) and we havent won it since 1917(see 1959).

 

Diaz wasn't a highly rated prospect. Neither were Munoz or Barcelo. Wright had arm problems. Brandon McCarthy IS a highly rated prospect. Just because B-Mac has pitched at a higher than AA for less than a season now, (he had a good start at Wrigley BTW), and because he hasn't automatically come in and put up uber like stats, people are already waiting to give up on him.

[Milkman delivers]

Reed was expendable last year because we had 2 guys named Anderson and Sweeney coming in behind him.

 

Show me who's coming in behind those 2 and I'll start saying a trade is fine.  Ditto McCarthy.

 

That Young kid is behind Anderson and Sweeney, right?

 

And Liotta, Gonzalez, and even Tracey behind B-Mac.

[southsideirish71]

Gotta remember some positives with the Count though like these;

 

AWAY - .194/.289/.339

.BAA - .225

 

One bad month, shouldn't take away the 2 great months he had to start the season. If we need a SP in a playoff series away from the Cell, he'd be ideal if Buerhle, Garland or Garcia couldn't take the hill.

 

 

It depends a lot on which one we get. The one who falls in love with his forkball will get murdered in the playoffs. The one who works faster and doesnt shake off AJ will be ok in the playoffs. He still has to prove that he wont s*** the bed when he faces Boston.

[ZoomSlowik]

Take a look at the Yankees for what happens if you keep trading all of your prospects. They've got a lot of old guys on their roster, and no one in the minors. They have no one that can really help their major league team, and no real ammo to add another player in a trade. They're pretty much stuck with what they have. And the Sox can't afford to keep adding FA veterans like the Yankees do to replace them. Not all of them pan out, but those that do are of upmost importance, especially for a mid market team.

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Jun 29, 2005 -> 06:14 PM)

I'm gonna be upset if we get Schmidt (unless the deal centers around Contreras and McCarthy or Anderson, that'd be pretty cool). The guy has allowed 42 walks and 86 hits in 82 1/3. He's simply not the same guy. He was highly mediocre last night, he could have been hit a lot harder. He allowed 9 hits and 3 walks. If Kenny is absolutely set on getting a starter, I'd much rather try to get Burnett. The guy has 13 quality starts already and has pitched much better. However, I'd still much rather see us improve in other areas, like finding another guy that can hit, or another arm in the pen so we can use more than 4 guys. Also if we get Schmidt, I sincerely hope that he doesn't start over one of our current big 3 unless he returns to being his old self or one of our guys falls apart.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Garland pitched 6 innings against that same lineup and gave up 6 hits, 3 walks, and 6 runs. El Duque against AZ pitched 4 2/3 and gave up 8 hits, 3 walks, and 6 earned runs. The Count pitched 6 innings against them and gave up 9 hits, 3 walks, and 8 earned runs. This was all at home.

 

Needless to say, against the same exact team, Schmidt pitched better than all of them. He pitched 6 innings, gave up 9 hits, 3 walks, and 3 earned runs. This was an away game for him. Give me Schmidt instead of any of those 3 that pitched against AZ for us. I would love to have Burnett, but if you are worried about spending money and prospects then you will pay a lot more for him than you will for Schmidt.

[DBAHO]

I don't want Contreras going anywhere, he's been great all year he's run into a little rough patch his past 2 of 3 starts but like you said that shouldnt' take away from what he's done all season.

Let's remember this with his bad starts this month.

 

1st one - Chris Widger was catching him. Big NO-NO.

2nd one - Gave up a grand slam which really hurt against the Flubs.

 

Other than that, he's given up 2 ER, 1 ER, and 3 ER in his other outings so far this month.

[southsideirish71]

Diaz wasn't a highly rated prospect. Neither were Munoz or Barcelo. Wright had arm problems. Brandon McCarthy IS a highly rated prospect. Just because B-Mac has pitched at a higher than AA for less than a season now, (he had a good start at Wrigley BTW), and because he hasn't automatically come in and put up uber like stats, people are already waiting to give up on him.

 

 

I think BMAC will be fine. Anderson still has a high K rate. I think Sweeney is diamond out of them all.

[Rowand44]

That Young kid is behind Anderson and Sweeney, right?

 

And Liotta, Gonzalez, and even Tracey behind B-Mac.

Yeah, Young and Owens are the other two outfielders making some noise this year. Young has a ton of power and Owens could be a solid leadoff type. Liotta and Gio both have a long way to go, out of our top pitching 'spects besides Bmac Tracey is the closest to the majors.