Contreras

[VAfan]

He had a stretch of 4 starts where he pitched poorly in 3 of them.  Besides that,  he's been good.

Once again,  nobody uses a 5 man rotation in the post-season.  Contreras would be in the pen.  And you do know El Duque's career playoff record is like 9-3?

Jose has had 2 pretty good starts against the Angels this year.  He's given up just 5 earned runs in 13 innings.  And yeah,  the Red Sox have owned him.  But like I said,  he'd be in the pen come playoff time anyway.

 

El Duque compiled his postseason dominance a long time ago before injuries and age made him an unreliable choice in a game 4 start. We don't know if he can even make it to August, much less be healthy in October.

 

Which brings us back to "wild man" Contreras. Could he give us a good postseason start? Yes, it is possible. Would he? Not even his hairdresser knows. Do you want to risk it if there is still time to trade for a less risky alternative?

[Balta1701]

He had a stretch of 4 starts where he pitched poorly in 3 of them.  Besides that,  he's been good.

Once again,  nobody uses a 5 man rotation in the post-season.  Contreras would be in the pen.  And you do know El Duque's career playoff record is like 9-3?

Jose has had 2 pretty good starts against the Angels this year.  He's given up just 5 earned runs in 13 innings.  And yeah,  the Red Sox have owned him.  But like I said,  he'd be in the pen come playoff time anyway.

El Duque is 16-9 in 33 career starts, 35 career postseason appearances. His postseason ERA is 3.59.

[Jordan4life_2007]

El Duque is 16-9 in 33 career starts, 35 career postseason appearances.  His postseason ERA is 3.59.

 

 

That's all I need to know. But Vafan thinks he can't outpitch the mighty Paul Byrd.

[Balta1701]

That's all I need to know.  But Vafan thinks he can't outpitch the mighty Paul Byrd.

Assuming SI.com's numbers are right...the mighty Paul Byrd is 11 and 10 Career in the postseason, with an ERA of 5.20.

 

link

[VAfan]

Assuming SI.com's numbers are right...the mighty Paul Byrd is 11 and 10 Career in the postseason, with an ERA of 5.20.

 

link

 

To straighten out the record, what I said is:

 

1. El Duque can't be counted on to be healthy in October,

2. He hasn't pitched well in the postseason for some time, and since he last pitched well he has developed recurring shoulder problems,

3. That Contreras may pitch great, but he may also walk 7 batters and throw 3 wild pitches, that he's been eaten alive by Boston and LA, our two most likely postseason opponents, and his postseason record is 0-2 with a higher ERA than Paul Byrd's 5.20.

 

(Heck, if I were an Angels fan, I'd be pushing to improve the starting pitching too.)

[Balta1701]

(Heck, if I were an Angels fan, I'd be pushing to improve the starting pitching too.)

Just like they should have in 2002...they had plenty of prospects to trade...I'm sure someone would happily have given them a veteran starting pitcher for this rookie named Francisco Rodriguez sometime in July that year.

[AngelasDaddy0427]

I think Jose is perfectly fine as our 4th and 5th starter and would be insane to move him for someone with far worse numbers. If we're going to take him out of the rotation it better be for an improvement and not someone who is going to put up an ERA almost 2 points higher then his own by the end of the year...

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Of course it was nice to see Jose get back on track tonight with a win.  "Only" 3 walks and 1 long ball - his two biggest weaknesses.  But of course it was against lowly Tampa Bay.

 

Who here thinks that this will start a run of good starts in the second half?  Or do you think it is just a blip on his slide to a 5+ ERA?  Or something in between?

 

 

He really needs to quit walking people. If he can get his control back and throw strikes he'll be just fine.

[Capn12]

He really needs to quit walking people.  If he can get his control back and throw strikes he'll be just fine.

 

He isn't called The Count of 3 and 2 for nothing Nuke.

[Stephen]

I'm worried. Looking at Contreras numbers from the past, it's the same story. A few games here and there he's good, then a few bad games before eventually finishing out the year with an ERA above 5. Right now he's in the top 10 in home runs and walks and this is after all his "good" starts. I think he's too wishy washy for people to assume that he's finally got his control or he's going to develop into that guy. Garland developed because he's still young. Contreras is in his mid 30's (so he says) or later. Development is over. He is what he is. Hopefully his mediocrity will be good enough. But i'd feel better with us securing someone else to fill his role, especially with El Duque's health in question.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

He isn't called The Count of 3 and 2 for nothing Nuke.

 

 

That's another thing that burns my ass about him. He loves to go 0-2 1-2 on a hitter then he almost always starts nibbling and ends up full and walking people.

[VAfan]

Just like they should have in 2002...they had plenty of prospects to trade...I'm sure someone would happily have given them a veteran starting pitcher for this rookie named Francisco Rodriguez sometime in July that year.

 

That's an absurd comment. Have you seen me advocating trading any impact minor leaguers for a much more reliable 4th starter? A lot of guys put BMac's name in the hopper, or even Bobby Jenks. You don't see me doing that. (I did propose BMac at one point, but quickly retracted.)

 

The only "name" prospect I've proposed giving up is Brian Anderson and that's because Jermaine Dye has right field locked up this year and next.

[SoxFan1]

Just like they should have in 2002...they had plenty of prospects to trade...I'm sure someone would happily have given them a veteran starting pitcher for this rookie named Francisco Rodriguez sometime in July that year.

See: Jon Rauch, and MANY other Sox prospects who were traded. Matt Guerrier...Etc.

[DukeNukeEm]

If we manage somehow to bring in Clemens or Schmidt then we might have the best #5 starter in the league in Count.

[VAfan]

See: Jon Rauch, and MANY other Sox prospects who were traded. Matt Guerrier...Etc.

 

Let's see, Jon Rauch is still toiling in the minors for the Nats (or is he hurt), and Matt Guerrier was traded right before the season started for Damaso Marte if I recall correctly.

 

I think KW actually gives more than many teams do in July trades, but it makes other teams willing to deal with him. And this year, I think that could be a real plus. I like our chances of picking up a quality starter who can help us in the playoffs.

[SoxFan1]

Let's see, Jon Rauch is still toiling in the minors for the Nats (or is he hurt), and Matt Guerrier was traded right before the season started for Damaso Marte if I recall correctly. 

 

I think KW actually gives more than many teams do in July trades, but it makes other teams willing to deal with him.  And this year, I think that could be a real plus.  I like our chances of picking up a quality starter who can help us in the playoffs.

You prove my point. Fate has yet to hurt us when it comes to prospects. What says this year will be a big difference???

[VAfan]

Just thought I would revive this thread.

 

Now that Jose has had back-to-back solid outings, should we consider keeping him for the stretch run? Or do we think he'll crash and burn like he seemed to in part of June and early July.

 

This is his game by game log.

 

DATE GAME W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO NP-S GO-AO

APR 07 CLE 0 0 1.50 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 4 1 1 0 2 4 96-62 11-3

APR 13 @CLE 0 0 3.55 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.2 5 4 4 1 5 3 104-55 5-11

APR 18 MIN 0 0 3.63 1 1 0 0 0 0 4.2 6 3 2 0 4 2 104-62 7-5

APR 23 @KCA 0 0 3.48 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.1 1 1 1 1 1 6 61-36 2-2

APR 29 DET 0 0 3.04 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 3 1 1 1 3 6 113-63 7-5

 

MAY 05 KCA 1 0 2.60 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 4 1 1 1 1 6 102-69 8-9

MAY 10 @TBA 0 0 3.18 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 5 4 4 1 5 3 90-51 5-7

MAY 15 BAL 0 1 3.52 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.1 7 5 4 2 1 4 100-62 9-6

MAY 21 @CHN 1 0 3.23 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 4 1 1 0 1 4 78-52 8-9

MAY 26 @ANA 0 1 3.30 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 4 3 3 1 1 9 95-65 5-7

 

JUN 01 ANA 0 0 3.27 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 5 4 2 1 3 4 102-66 8-6

JUN 07 @COL 1 0 3.13 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 5 1 1 0 2 6 103-64 4-8

JUN 13 ARI 0 1 3.81 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 9 8 8 4 3 4 118-65 4-10

JUN 19 LAN 0 0 3.83 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.2 6 3 3 0 4 5 102-61 8-7

JUN 25 CHN 0 1 4.15 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.1 8 6 6 1 2 3 105-61 7-8

 

JUL 01 @OAK 0 1 4.34 1 1 0 0 0 0 4.1 4 4 4 0 7 2 97-50 5-6

JUL 06 TBA 1 0 4.26 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 6 2 2 2 3 1 85-51 4-12

JUL 14 @CLE 1 0 3.99 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 3 0 0 0 3 7 97-62 4-10

 

I've highlighted the outings where he's gone at least 6 innings and given up 0, 1, or 2 runs. He's done it against Cleveland, Detroit, KC, Cubs, Colorado, Tampa, and Cleveland again.

 

So, out of 18 starts, 7 have been very high quality.

 

He's also had 2 games where he's pitched at least 6 and given up 3 runs, against Anaheim and the Dodgers.

 

In 5 other games he's given up 4 runs, against Cleveland, Tampa, Baltimore, Anaheim, and Oakland.

 

In 2 starts he was torched for 8 runs by Arizona and 6 runs by the Cubs.

 

In the last 2 games he only went 3.1 innings and 4.2 innings, but gave up 1 and 3 runs respectively, to Minn. and KC.

 

*********************

 

I'll say this. I don't want to trade him for AJ Burnett. Contreras is signed for this year and next, and he seems as reliable a pitcher as Burnett, who has only 1 game where he surrendered 1 or 0 runs this year.

 

Would I still trade him for Jason Schmidt? Probably, but it sure looks a lot closer to an even exchange at this point.

 

The good news for us is we don't need to be in a panic, especially if El Duque comes back Monday and pitches well. Marte's resurgence at the point where Neal Cotts was showing signs of overuse is also welcome.

 

We could do worse than going into the postseason with the pitching we currently have.

Edited July 15, 2005 by VAfan