Possible postseason pitching matchups

[VAfan]

As it stands now, we would face Boston in a best-of-5 ALDS, and then likely the Angels in a best of 7 ALCS. What would the starting pitching matchups be for those series? (For Boston, I'm going to assume they trade for a closer and move Schilling to #1 by season's end because a closer is worthless if your starter gets shelled.)

 

You can't predict series ending early, so let's just compare the top 4 starters from each team:

 

ALDS:

 

Buerhle v. Schilling (even)

Garcia v. Clement (even)

Garland v. Wells (even)

Contreras/El Duque v. Wakefield (adv. Boston)

 

ALCS:

 

Buerhle v. Colon (even)

Garcia v. Washburn (even)

Garland v. Lackey (adv. ChiSox)

Contreras/El Duque v. Byrd (adv. Angels)

 

Now in both of these scenarios, the biggest thing driving my belief that the Sox need to trade for a starter is the 4th game matchups. There is no way the Sox should pitch anyone on short rest, so you need a 4th starter in each series unless you are lucky enough to get a sweep.

 

I think Buehrle, Garcia and Garland may get it done, but given our relative lack of postseason experience and the fact we are facing stronger hitting clubs, we need every edge we can get.

 

Go out and get a better 4th playoff starter Kenny. Please.

[VAfan]

This article on ESPN is correct in its assessment of the Sox. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2101737

 

"It would seem that the White Sox don't have much fine-tuning to do, given the size of their lead. But GM Kenny Williams is looking ahead to October and knows he would be better off with another experienced starter. Roger Clemens heads his wish list, though that trade won't happen. Beyond that, the Sox will take what they can find, given questions they have about Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras."

[Rowand44]

What are you smoking buddy. Garcia>Clement. Garland>>>Wells. Garcia>>Washburn. Also, Schilling is still very much so a question mark.

Edited July 7, 2005 by Rowand44

[DukeNukeEm]

Schilling is the closer.

 

We'd face Clement, Arroyo, and Wells.

[Jimenez4MVP]

ALDS:

 

Buerhle v. Schilling (even)

Garcia v. Clement (even)

Garland v. Wells (even)

Contreras/El Duque v. Wakefield (adv. Boston)

 

ALCS:

 

Buerhle v. Colon (even)

Garcia v. Washburn (even)

Garland v. Lackey (adv. ChiSox)

Contreras/El Duque v. Byrd (adv. Angels)

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[DukeNukeEm]

Oh yeah, It's July. Just a heads-up.

[Leonard Zelig]

As it stands now, we would face Boston in a best-of-5 ALDS, and then likely the Angels in a best of 7 ALCS.  What would the starting pitching matchups be for those series?  (For Boston, I'm going to assume they trade for a closer and move Schilling to #1 by season's end because a closer is worthless if your starter gets shelled.)

 

You can't predict series ending early, so let's just compare the top 4 starters from each team:

 

ALDS:

 

Buerhle v. Schilling (even)

Garcia v. Clement (even)

Garland v. Wells (even)

Contreras/El Duque v. Wakefield (adv. Boston)

 

ALCS:

 

Buerhle v. Colon (even)

Garcia v. Washburn (even)

Garland v. Lackey (adv. ChiSox)

Contreras/El Duque v. Byrd (adv. Angels)

 

Now in both of these scenarios, the biggest thing driving my belief that the Sox need to trade for a starter is the 4th game matchups.  There is no way the Sox should pitch anyone on short rest, so you need a 4th starter in each series unless you are lucky enough to get a sweep. 

 

I think Buehrle, Garcia and Garland may get it done, but given our relative lack of postseason experience and the fact we are facing stronger hitting clubs, we need every edge we can get. 

 

Go out and get a better 4th playoff starter Kenny.  Please.

 

 

If Boston is in a tight race, they will not have the advantage of setting their rotation for the playoffs. And what if the Sox went 5 games in the ALDS, then Mark obviously wouldn't be starting game 1 of the ALCS. Too early to even think about it.

[Jordan4life_2007]

As it stands now, we would face Boston in a best-of-5 ALDS, and then likely the Angels in a best of 7 ALCS.  What would the starting pitching matchups be for those series?  (For Boston, I'm going to assume they trade for a closer and move Schilling to #1 by season's end because a closer is worthless if your starter gets shelled.)

 

You can't predict series ending early, so let's just compare the top 4 starters from each team:

 

ALDS:

 

Buerhle v. Schilling (even)

Garcia v. Clement (even)

Garland v. Wells (even)

Contreras/El Duque v. Wakefield (adv. Boston)

 

ALCS:

 

Buerhle v. Colon (even)

Garcia v. Washburn (even)

Garland v. Lackey (adv. ChiSox)

Contreras/El Duque v. Byrd (adv. Angels)

 

Now in both of these scenarios, the biggest thing driving my belief that the Sox need to trade for a starter is the 4th game matchups.  There is no way the Sox should pitch anyone on short rest, so you need a 4th starter in each series unless you are lucky enough to get a sweep. 

 

I think Buehrle, Garcia and Garland may get it done, but given our relative lack of postseason experience and the fact we are facing stronger hitting clubs, we need every edge we can get. 

 

 

Go out and get a better 4th playoff starter Kenny.  Please.

 

 

You're pitching match-ups are horrible. Against the Red Sox, It's Buehrle > Schilling. I want to see Schilling healthy. Garcia > Clement. Garica has been good for years. Garland >>> Wells. Sorry, Wells 5.04 era doesnt do much for me. Hernandez > Wakefield. I'll take El Duqe's 9-3 career playoff record over Wakefield. Our Bullepen > their Bullpen.

 

Angels?

 

Buehrle > Colon

Garcia > Washbrn

Garland > Lackey

Hernandez >>>>>> Byrd.

 

Both Bullpens are fairly even.

[Adam G]

Schilling is the closer.

Just until he's healthy, not for the long term.

[Antonio Osuna]

I don't think we can beat Clement, Schilling, and Colon. Which makes it all the more important that we get another top-notch starter. One of our aces will be "wasted" in Game 1, so to speak, (both Game 1 and Game 2 if vs BOS), so it's important that we throw more aces out there against their #2/#3 guys. Make it an unfair matchup in those games.

[VAfan]

The reason I rated some of these matchups as even is that I have factored in road v. home and the potential disparity in offense between us and Boston/Angels.

 

For example, Buehrle may pitch great and mow down the Red Sox, but he's never proven it in the postseason and he has in the past had trouble where he loses it for a single inning yet it costs him the game. One example is this year when he lost to Santana on a Sunday night game. Crede made an error and the next thing you know Torii Hunter is hitting a 3-run homer for a 4-2 MN lead. That was the ballgame. By comparison, Schilling has been a key pitcher in two WS victories on two different teams. You have to assume at this point that he will be able to go in game 1 of the ALDS.

 

Garcia also may have the edge, but a good hitting team can get to him, while the Sox are not guaranteed to get to Clement or Washburn (though I think we'd have a better shot against Washburn). In 1 game, we'd likely have the edge, but it isn't that great.

 

As for Wells, the man may stink during the year, but he has another groove in the postseason, while Garland would be pitching on the road where he is not best. Ozzie could possibly flip Garcia and Garland so Garland would start at the Cell, but this would be putting an inexperienced starter ahead of our starter with the most experience. Again, this is why I rate them as even. I rate Lackey as weaker and Anaheim as an easier lineup to face, which is why I give Garland the edge against the Angels.

 

And for those of you who dismiss this as insignificant, the whole point is to see that Contreras/El Duque are no option at all at #4. You have to go a long way back to find a start where El Duque gave up 3 or fewer runs in a postseason start, and right now we can't count on him to finish August, much less be healthy in October. Contreras? Do you want to bet the season on him down 2-1 in the ALDS?

[ZoomSlowik]

Take a look at all of the numbers for the starters you are so frightened about. Only Colon has been even close to dominant (we won the one game head to head), and Schilling hasn't put up a good major league start since the ALCS. Also, we didn't get shut down by Washburn in either of his outings (6 innings in both starts, 4 runs in one 3 in the other). Why should we start doubting our top 3 starters? They've been much better than any AL top 3 collection that we might face in the playoffs. And as others have said, let's worry about it in September. I also find it interesting that you use the argument that El Duque hasn't done much in the playoffs in the last few years while saying that Wells is effective in the playoffs. They're both pretty much in the same position. Both have missed time, and both have sucked, and neither have made a significant playoff start in a while.

Edited July 7, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[qwerty]

Hernandez >>>>>> Byrd.

 

That makes zero sense.

[bjm676]

Where does it say that the Central plays the East in the 1st round? It's seeded right?

Edited July 7, 2005 by robinventura23

[Balta1701]

Why is it now that we suddenly can't beat Colon or Washburn, or any other great starter for that matter?

 

We came out with Buehrle vs. Colon and ended up winning that game in the 11th inning...IN ANAHEIM.

 

Garcia took Washburn out 4-2...in ANAHEIM.

 

Yeah, Garland lost his game there, but that was in that 1 stretch this season where he struggled a wee bit, and where our offense was totally dead against that rookie Santana.

 

Contreras lost 3-2 to Lackey, and again, this was without Thomas, and during a time when our offense was really struggling.

 

Look at our record this year...it's insanity to say that because some team throws out Colon or Schilling we won't be able to beat them.

[ChiTownSOX67]

Wait a minute, Kelvim Escobar will be back for the Angels by the playoffs.

[CanOfCorn]

VA...you have a plethora of "ifs" in your statement. You could probably sell a few of those off...and it's only July. Relax, my man.

[VAfan]

You all seem to miss the point. Let me make it easier.

 

To win a series against Boston or the Angels, our chances will improve greatly if our 4th starter has a significant edge against their 4th starter, rather than a disadvantage, which is where we stand now with Contreras/El Duque as our two options.

 

Or, to put it another way, as much as I love Buehrle/Garcia/Garland, I'm not as confident as I would like to be that we can beat Boston or the Angels if we lose the 4th game in each series.

 

Or, to put it even another way, the Sox do not have a Schilling/Johnson type duo who can win the playoffs and World Series by themselves. We need 4 quality postseason starters to maximize our chances of winning it all.

[Balta1701]

You all seem to miss the point.  Let me make it easier.

 

To win a series against Boston or the Angels, our chances will improve greatly if our 4th starter has a significant edge against their 4th starter, rather than a disadvantage, which is where we stand now with Contreras/El Duque as our two options. 

I strongly disagree with your statement that Contreras/El Duque do not match up well with other teams 4th starters.

 

1. Contreras will give you good starts probably about 60% of the time, if not more. Against another team's 4th starter...it is insanity to expect better. 4th starter games come down to how well each person pitches that day and how your offense responds.

 

2. Let's take a quick look at this quote.

As for Wells, the man may stink during the year, but he has another groove in the postseason, while Garland would be pitching on the road where he is not best. Ozzie could possibly flip Garcia and Garland so Garland would start at the Cell, but this would be putting an inexperienced starter ahead of our starter with the most experience. Again, this is why I rate them as even. I rate Lackey as weaker and Anaheim as an easier lineup to face, which is why I give Garland the edge against the Angels.

Why exactly do you think that you can give David Wells another level in the playoffs, but you cannot give another level to the guy on our staff with 33 career postseason starts and a 16-9 record...El Duque?

 

I think El Duque will be our 4th starter when playoff time comes personally...if he's healthy. If he is...I'll take his experience in big games over just about anyone.

 

Let me be very clear on this...THE ONLY REASON WE NEED ANOTHER STARTING PITCHER IS THAT EL DUQUE SIMPLY CANNOT FINISH THE SEASON. If that is the case, we need another starter. If he can...he is as good as we will find, as is Contreras.

[VAfan]

I strongly disagree with your statement that Contreras/El Duque do not match up well with other teams 4th starters.

 

1.  Contreras will give you good starts probably about 60% of the time, if not more.  Against another team's 4th starter...it is insanity to expect better.  4th starter games come down to how well each person pitches that day and how your offense responds.

 

2.  Let's take a quick look at this quote. Why exactly do you think that you can give David Wells another level in the playoffs, but you cannot give another level to the guy on our staff with 33 career postseason starts and a 16-9 record...El Duque?

 

I think El Duque will be our 4th starter when playoff time comes personally...if he's healthy.  If he is...I'll take his experience in big games over just about anyone.

 

Let me be very clear on this...THE ONLY REASON WE NEED ANOTHER STARTING PITCHER IS THAT EL DUQUE SIMPLY CANNOT FINISH THE SEASON.  If that is the case, we need another starter.  If he can...he is as good as we will find, as is Contreras.

 

El Duque's days of postseason dominance are history. In 2004, he started 1 game against Boston, pitched 5 innings, gave up 3 runs and 5 walks for a 5.40 ERA. In 2002, he only pitched out of the bullpen, but was credited with a loss in his 2 games. In 2001, he was 1-1, beating Oakland in the ALDS, but getting rocked by Seattle in the ALCS. He pitched well against Arizona in the WS but got no decision. Most of this was before he developed arm problems.

 

Contreras's 2 postseason series ended with his ERA at 5.79 and 5.68 and his record 0-2. He walked 7 guys in 11 innings. All games were in relief.

 

This is Jason Schmidt's postseason line from 2002-03. (Granted he's been hurt since too.)

4 Postseason Ser 2-2 5 5 3.06 3-1 0 1 1 32.3 26 11 9 32

 

I'd rather take my chances with Schmidt.

[ZoomSlowik]

El Duque's days of postseason dominance are history.  In 2004, he started 1 game against Boston, pitched 5 innings, gave up 3 runs and 5 walks for a 5.40 ERA.  In 2002, he only pitched out of the bullpen, but was credited with a loss in his 2 games.  In 2001, he was 1-1, beating Oakland in the ALDS, but getting rocked by Seattle in the ALCS.  He pitched well against Arizona in the WS but got no decision.  Most of this was before he developed arm problems. 

 

Contreras's 2 postseason series ended with his ERA at 5.79 and 5.68 and his record 0-2.  He walked 7 guys in 11 innings.  All games were in relief.

 

This is Jason Schmidt's postseason line from 2002-03.  (Granted he's been hurt since too.)

4 Postseason Ser 2-2 5  5 3.06  3-1 0  1 1  32.3  26  11 9  32

 

I'd rather take my chances with Schmidt.

 

As you said, those starts from Schmidt were a long time ago. Considering how much it would supposedly cost to get him here, we'd be better off with what we have. Plus, the Giants have said a few times that Schmidt won't be traded.

[VAfan]

As you said, those starts from Schmidt were a long time ago. Considering how much it would supposedly cost to get him here, we'd be better off with what we have. Plus, the Giants have said a few times that Schmidt won't be traded.

 

I'm not buying SF's and the Sox' denials about Jason. This deal still makes the most sense for both teams, including the swap of shortstops.

 

(And isn't it just the kind of deal KW would pull? After all, hasn't he added a middle infielder and starter at the trade deadline just about every year?)

[Balta1701]

I'm not buying SF's and the Sox' denials about Jason.  This deal still makes the most sense for both teams, including the swap of shortstops. 

 

(And isn't it just the kind of deal KW would pull?  After all, hasn't he added a middle infielder and starter at the trade deadline just about every year?)

He added a starter last year. He added Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett each of the last 2 years.

[DonkeyKongerko]

There's a good chance Buehrle would be available to pitch if not start the 4th game of most playoff series with an off day or possibly two thrown in there. I would expect our Cubans to have a short leash in playoff starts. Especially the Count.

[winninguglyin83]

let's win the division easily first