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Boston.com:

No Marlins scouts sightings at Fenway.

Marlins price: If you want Burnett you have to take Lowell & give them a SP & RP in return. O's have Julio & Penn, White Sox BMac.

 

White Sox scouting Phillies. Was it for Burnett or Wagner?

White Sox scout Bill Lajoie would not say. The O's did not have a scout in attendance.

 

The Red Sox are actively seeking both a SP & RP.

Targets: Mike Wise, Miguel Batista, Danys Baez, & Eddie G.

TBJ price for Batista: top prospect of a Hanley Ramirez level.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 09:15 AM)
Boston.com:

No Marlins scouts sightings at Fenway. 

Marlins price: If you want Burnett you have to take Lowell & give them a SP & RP in return.  O's have Julio & Penn, White Sox BMac. 

 

White Sox scouting Phillies.  Was it for Burnett or Wagner?

White Sox scout Bill Lajoie would not say.  The O's did not have a scout in attendance.

 

The Red Sox are actively seeking both a SP & RP. 

Targets:  Mike Wise, Miguel Batista, Danys Baez, & Eddie G. 

TBJ price for Batista: top prospect of a Hanley Ramirez level.

too bad bill lajoie is a scout for the red sox not the white sox

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phillyburbs.com:

 

Possibility of the Phillies holding a firesale before 7/31. Red Sox scouting closer Wagner for last week & Rangers scouting starter Padilla. The Phillies had been eager to listen to offers for Padilla but seem reluctant on trading Wagner.

 

Thome is available but there are no takers. That's why you should always be leary of long term contracts like the one the Tigers signed with Maggs. Thome was never considered a health risk prior to that signing. The Phillies are willing to eat some of the $47.5M left on the contract. Some think Thome will drop his no-trade clause for the Cubs, White Sox, Cards, & Indians.

 

Phily price: Pitchers, young catcher, & young 3B.

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Opps! My mistake on Lajoie. The paragraph mentions directly the White Sox & then this guy. I'm not sure if that was a mistake on the site's part or they asked him for insight.

 

The Yanks are essentially targeting all the arms we are plus a CFer. It's possible Byrnes could be headed to NY. Likewise they covet El Duque. A little bit of envy perhaps.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/printedition...ny-sports-print

The White Sox won't trade Henandez unless they acquire Burnett or Schmidt. A Yankee scout: "Burnett's not the guy for NY. With his stuff, he should be a lot better than [37-38]." The Fish seek a prime ML ready starter & solid RP for Burnett. White Sox would be expected to surrender BMac for a shot at Burnett.

 

Odds & ends related to what White Sox fans want:

Cincy's mgmt seems to be too nervous to do anything but trade Joe Randa. Houston is trying hard to get A Dunn.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 10:26 AM)
phillyburbs.com:

 

Possibility of the Phillies holding a firesale before 7/31.  Red Sox scouting closer Wagner for last week & Rangers scouting starter Padilla.  The Phillies had been eager to listen to offers for Padilla but seem reluctant on trading Wagner. 

 

Thome is available but there are no takers.  That's why you should always be leary of long term contracts like the one the Tigers signed with Maggs.  Thome was never considered a health risk prior to that signing. The Phillies are willing to eat some of the $47.5M left on the contract.  Some think Thome will drop his no-trade clause for the Cubs, White Sox, Cards, & Indians.

 

Phily price: Pitchers, young catcher, & young 3B.

 

Correction. Thome was definitely considered a health risk before that signing. That's why that deal was so ludicrous.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 10:40 AM)
Correction.  Thome was definitely considered a health risk before that signing.  That's why that deal was so ludicrous.

 

I agree YASNY, everythign i read was how all the teams were scared off because of Thomes current and impending back problems. The guy turns on the ball like Canseco used to, im sure his lower back is all twisted up.

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I agree YASNY, everythign i read was how all the teams were scared off because of Thomes current and impending back problems.  The guy turns on the ball like Canseco used to, im sure his lower back is all twisted up.

 

I'm not sure if I would agree. Certainly there was risk of his age but his AB' s over the years are pretty healthy.

1995 CLE 452, 1996 CLE 505, 1997 CLE 496, 1998 CLE 440, 1999 CLE 494

2000 CLE 557, 2001 CLE 526, 2002 CLE 480, 2003 PHI 578, 2004 PHI 508

You're talking about a slugger who avg'd about 500 AB/yr w CLE before signing w PHI.

Compared to other player's of his stature that's a pretty healthy track record.

 

He still figures to get about 400 AB's in 2005. He's got somewhere between $48-46M/3.5 yrs left on his contract. If Philly were to eat enough to where it was say

$30M/3yrs that's not a bad deal. Koney who have never put up Thome numbers is likely to get at least $50M/4yrs.

Edited by JUGGERNAUT
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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 11:08 AM)
I'm not sure if I would agree.  Certainly there was risk of his age but his AB' s over the years are pretty healthy.

1995 CLE 452, 1996 CLE 505, 1997 CLE 496, 1998 CLE 440, 1999 CLE 494

2000 CLE 557, 2001 CLE 526, 2002 CLE 480, 2003 PHI 578, 2004  PHI 508

You're talking about a slugger who avg'd about 500 AB/yr w CLE before signing w PHI.

Compared to other player's of his stature that's a pretty healthy track record.

 

His bad back was a known problem. That's always a major risk. His previous stats are meaningless as the bad back was a fact at the time. It's still part of the equation and it's certainly a risk I don't want the Sox to take.

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QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 09:39 AM)
Big Jason Stark insider article on ESPN right now detailing the 10 big names to be moved, anyone have a subscription?

THE HOT 10

NO.  PLAYER/TEAM  POS.  LAST

RANK 

1  A.J. Burnett, Florida  RHP  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

Better cancel Burnett's flight to O'Hare. The White Sox appeared to have the best match for Burnett until the Orioles made a furious charge over the weekend. And now, multiple sources said Monday morning, there is a possibility Burnett could be heading for Baltimore within 24 hours. One baseball man with knowledge of the discussions said, however, that while the teams are now "closer" than they've ever been to a deal, they're still "not in the final stages yet." The Marlins would get back reliever Jorge Julio, outfielder Larry Bigbie and Baltimore's most advanced pitching prospect, Hayden Penn. Baltimore would receive Burnett and agree to take Mike Lowell. The Orioles then would shift Melvin Mora back to the outfield to take Bigbie's place, so Lowell could play third. And Florida would move Miguel Cabrera back to third base, from whence he came, while platooning Bigbie with Jeff Conine in left. Because the Marlins wouldn't be getting a big-league-ready starting pitcher in the deal, they also could try to deal Penn to a third team for a more experienced arm. It's still unclear whether the Orioles would ask for a 48- or 72-hour window to attempt to sign Burnett to an extension. Burnett already has said publicly that he would be interested in signing with the Orioles because his wife is from Maryland, so the need for that window might be moot. The Red Sox (offering a package headed by Bronson Arroyo), Blue Jays (Gustavo Chacin and bullpen arms) and Yankees (Carl Pavano, Felix Rodriguez and prospects) also have stepped up in recent days. But if no one outbids Baltimore before the end of the day, it appears Burnett will be an Oriole. 

2  Mike Lowell, Florida  3B  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

It wasn't the Orioles' offer for Burnett that moved them to the front of this line. It was their willingness to take on Lowell, a guy with a .227 batting average, just four home runs in 300 at-bats and nearly $21 million (and 2 ½ years) left on his contract. The White Sox also have interest in Lowell, but clubs that have spoken with them say they're wrestling with whether to mess with the chemistry of the best team in baseball. And while the Twins also have kicked the tires on Lowell, they aren't involved in the Burnett bidding. The Orioles, on the other hand, have been told that if they'll take Lowell, Florida would drop its demand that starter Daniel Cabrera be part of any deal for Burnett. And when the Orioles indicated over the weekend that they would be open to that, the teams began closing in on a deal. 

3  Adam Dunn, Cincinnati  LF  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

It isn't every July you get a chance to trade for a 25-year-old with a better career home run ratio than A-Rod, Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. But Dunn fits that description, and clubs that have talked with the Reds say Dunn is definitely on the market. There are indications the Astros have made him their No. 1 target -- with both of their top pitching prospects (Fernando Nieve and Taylor Buchholz) potentially being involved. The Reds, however, don't do anything fast (except release slumping closers). And they still aren't sure they'll even trade Dunn. Clubs speaking with the Reds say they're debating whether they'd rather deal Wily Mo Pena. And an official of one team that has been in touch with them says they'll "consider" deals for Junior Griffey (even though Griffey has said he'd veto any deal) -- but not Austin Kearns. Nevertheless, there's no bat on the market more attractive than Dunn. So the big question, between now and deadline day, is whether the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox or anyone else can afford Dunn's humongous price tag. 

4  Jim Thome, Philadelphia  1B  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

The Phillies are more interested in catching fire than holding a fire sale. The Phillies' problem is that they have so few tradable prospects left, they're dangling an amazing array of names out there to see if they can buy and sell at the same time. Thome has gotten the headlines, but he isn't the only one. According to teams that have talked to the Phillies, they'll listen to proposals for just about anybody -- except Bobby Abreu and Chase Utley -- but only if they get back players that give them a better chance to win now. They've also told clubs that, because first-base prospect Ryan Howard still works so cheap, they would be willing to pay a big chunk of the nearly $50 million Thome has coming through 2008. But don't call those moving vans yet. As an official of one mildly interested team put it, "We're talking about a guy with a bad elbow and a bad back, who isn't performing and has a total no-trade." So the chances of Thome's landing in Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland or anywhere else would have to be slim and none. And even slim looks like a stretch. 

5  Billy Wagner, Philadelphia  CL  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

If the Phillies really are interested in buying at the same time they're selling, nobody on their roster can bring back the pieces Wagner can. But they're still balking at moving him for one big reason: They're not sure they can win without him. So barring two disastrous weeks, Wagner probably won't go anywhere. Just in case, though, the Red Sox airlifted special assistant Bill Lajoie into Philadelphia after the break to check him out. Of course, if the Red Sox want to talk about Thome, too, it might be a different conversation. 

6  Joe Randa, Cincinnati  3B  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

Randa is the other third baseman on the menu for teams that don't want Lowell's price tag. But despite all that talk of a bidding frenzy building around the eminently available Randa, clubs that have spoken with the Reds say he's been insanely overpriced. The White Sox, Indians and Twins have had some degree of interest. But all those teams are believed to view Randa as no more than a secondary priority. "We're just lukewarm about him," said an official of one team that at least checked in on Randa. "He's had a nice year. But he's never played on a winning team. And he's not the kind of player you overpay for." 

7  Shawn Chacon, Colorado  RHP  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

Forget all those rumors about Chacon's checking out New York subway maps. Even the Yankees aren't desperate enough to trade any of their few decent prospects for a pitcher whose career ERA away from Coors Field is almost 5.00. The Rockies are still believed to be talking to a bunch of other teams (Rangers, Giants, Padres, Orioles) about Chacon. But the Yankees are monitoring other options (Vicente Padilla, Hideo Nomo, etc.). And clubs that have spoken with them say they're turning their attention back toward center field (Eric Byrnes, Endy Chavez, Randy Winn). 

8  Bronson Arroyo, Boston  RHP  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

Bet you didn't know only five American League right-handers had a lower ERA and more innings pitched over the last two seasons than Arroyo. Which explains why so many teams have asked about him this month -- but also explains why the Red Sox only want to move him in a deal for a big-time starter or legitimate closer. Arroyo's name has been connected with Boston's bids on both Burnett and Wagner. But neither of those deals would rank as particularly likely to happen. So at this point, this is one right-handed guitarist who still looks like a better bet to stay than go. 

9  Danys Baez, Tampa Bay  RHP  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

Baez and his teammate Aubrey Huff have been Human Trade Rumors for so long, they should have their own personal Rumor Central page. But there isn't enough room in cyberspace to list all of the teams frustrated by their inability to finish off a deal with the Devil Rays. Remember this though: The Rays did make a whopper before the deadline last year (Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir). So that's reason enough why we should all stay tuned. 

10  Ted Lilly, Toronto  LHP  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

After Roy Halladay got hurt, there were signs the Blue Jays were more open to trading Lilly. But teams that have spoken with the Blue Jays say they'd prefer to keep him. With the Toronto payroll due for a $20 million bump next year, the Jays don't have to pinch Canadian pennies. So Lilly's arbitration eligibility isn't a big enough deal to offset how hard he would be to replace. If Toronto changes its mind, however, Lilly would be the most attractive left-hander on the trade-deadline shelves. 

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His bad back was a known problem.  That's always a major risk.  His previous stats are meaningless as the bad back was a fact at the time.  It's still part of the equation and it's certainly a risk I don't want the Sox to take.

 

That's your opinion. There's nothing in his career to suggest that it hampered his performance. If it's always been a known problem then his numbers have proven he's been able to overcome. He's on the DL now because of elbow teniditis. He's said his back is fine.

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4  Jim Thome, Philadelphia  1B  n/a 

MARKET REPORT

The Phillies are more interested in catching fire than holding a fire sale. The Phillies' problem is that they have so few tradable prospects left, they're dangling an amazing array of names out there to see if they can buy and sell at the same time. Thome has gotten the headlines, but he isn't the only one. According to teams that have talked to the Phillies, they'll listen to proposals for just about anybody -- except Bobby Abreu and Chase Utley -- but only if they get back players that give them a better chance to win now. They've also told clubs that, because first-base prospect Ryan Howard still works so cheap, they would be willing to pay a big chunk of the nearly $50 million Thome has coming through 2008. But don't call those moving vans yet. As an official of one mildly interested team put it, "We're talking about a guy with a bad elbow and a bad back, who isn't performing and has a total no-trade." So the chances of Thome's landing in Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland or anywhere else would have to be slim and none. And even slim looks like a stretch. 

 

Apparently, I'm not the only one with that opinion. Though, I would hardly consider a known issue such as a bad back an "opinion".

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they would be willing to pay a big chunk of the nearly $50 million Thome has coming through 2008. But don't call those moving vans yet. As an official of one mildly interested team put it, "We're talking about a guy with a bad elbow and a bad back, who isn't performing and has a total no-trade."

 

Its not an opinion Juggs, its been known for quite some time.

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Apparently, I'm not the only one with that opinion.  Though, I would hardly consider a known issue such as a bad back an "opinion".

 

And how much has that bad back & bad elbow impacted his performance?

1995 452AB/.996OPS, 1996 505AB/1.062OPS, 1997 496AB/1.001OPS

1998 440AB/.998OPS, 1999 494AB/.967OPS, 2000 557AB/.929 OPS

2001 526AB/1.040OPS, 2002 480AB/1.122OPS, 2003 578AB/.958 OPS

2004 508AB/.977OPS

 

Prior to 2005 he's avg'd 500+ AB, a high 900's OPS. That's better than most players

in the league. If he can do that with a chronic back problem one can only imagine what he'd do with a healthy back. If Philly were to knock down the price to $30M/3.5yrs KW would be foolish not to consider it. The trade would of course be contingent upon Thome passing a comprehensive physical. 193 AB's does not a player make.

Especially when he's got 5919 AB's in his career.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 11:36 AM)
And how much has that bad back & bad elbow impacted his performance?

1995 452AB/.996OPS, 1996 505AB/1.062OPS, 1997 496AB/1.001OPS

1998 440AB/.998OPS, 1999 494AB/.967OPS, 2000 557AB/.929 OPS

2001 526AB/1.040OPS, 2002 480AB/1.122OPS, 2003 578AB/.958 OPS

2004 508AB/.977OPS

 

Prior to 2005 he's avg'd 500+ AB, a high 900's OPS. That's better than most players

in the league.  If he can do that with a chronic back problem one can only imagine what he'd do with a healthy back. If Philly were to knock down the price to $30M/3.5yrs KW would be foolish not to consider it.  The trade would of course be contingent upon Thome passing a comprehensive physical. 193 AB's does not a player make.

Especially when he's got 5919 AB's in his career.

 

Only two problems with your scenario.

 

1. It's not prior to 2005.

2. He doesn't have a healthy back.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 11:40 AM)
Let's also not forget he has only 2 options for playing in the NL: PH, & 1B.  He's more likely to injure his elbow or back playing 1B than he is DH'g.

With the White Sox or any AL team for that matter he would DH almost as often as he plays 1B.

 

I think the White Sox have a DH.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 11:40 AM)
Let's also not forget he has only 2 options for playing in the NL: PH, & 1B.  He's more likely to injure his elbow or back playing 1B than he is DH'g.

With the White Sox or any AL team for that matter he would DH almost as often as he plays 1B.

 

So you want Thome to come to a team that already has two DH options, and still no backup at 1st?

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So you want Thome to come to a team that already has two DH options, and still no backup at 1st?

 

Let's put it this way. Kenny wouldn't make such a trade unless he was confident Thome could contribute this year.

 

Offensively our biggest weakness lies in hitting vs RHers:

Everett vs RHers: 176AB .244/.761 21R/31RBI

Thome 05 vs RHers: 120AB .233/.799 18R/19RBI

Thome 04 vs RHers: 320AB .294/1.075 65R/71RBI

 

If Thome is healthy enough to contribute he could help us in a big way both in the 2nd half & in the post-season. He would platoon with Thomas at DH, & Koney at 1B.

 

Thomas was quoted this past week as saying the ankle is not going to get any better this year. That means playing time is not as much of a concern with him.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jul 18, 2005 -> 11:57 AM)
Let's put it this way.  Kenny wouldn't make such a trade unless he was confident Thome could contribute this year. 

 

Offensively our biggest weakness lies in hitting vs RHers:

Everett vs RHers: 176AB .244/.761  21R/31RBI

Thome 05 vs RHers: 120AB  .233/.799 18R/19RBI

Thome 04 vs RHers: 320AB  .294/1.075 65R/71RBI

 

If Thome is healthy enough to contribute he could help us in a big way both in the 2nd half & in the post-season.  He would platoon with Thomas at DH, & Koney at 1B.

 

Thomas was quoted this past week as saying the ankle is not going to get any better this year.  That means playing time is not as much of a concern with him.

 

I'll agree with you on this point ... the Sox need a big time LH bat. But tying ourselves to Thome 3 years and all those $ is just too much of a risk.

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This news is certainly going to widen Kenny's ability to trade before the deadline:

Pre-sold tickets for the Tiggers series:

Mon 31.8K, Tues 19.5K, Wed 35K

Pre-sold tickets for the RedSox series:

Thu 31K, Fri 37.5K, Sa 32.5K

 

Remaining home stands : 6 gms (TOR, SEA). 6 gms (MIN, NYY). 10 gms (DET, KC, LAA), & 7 gms (CLE, MIN). I'd be surprised if they don't avg better than 26K/gm the rest of the year.

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