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Frank...how patient are you willing to be with him


Greg Hibbard

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QUOTE(Greg Hibbard @ Jul 20, 2005 -> 11:52 AM)
It just looks like he swinging for the fences 3/4 times he's up every night

 

 

And I'm sure he will until he hits his 500th. Frankly, I think thats the only reason he is still around -- gives him a better shot at the hall. I dont think he will be around long after he hits #500 -- no matter when it is or who it is for (unfortunately)

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[i am stealing these number from what I posted in the game thread...]

 

I just went and looked it up, I didn't realize how bad he has been.

 

The last week 2-19 .105 ba .190 obp .316 slg .590 ops 2bb 7k

 

For the season, the clutch numbers are just as bad

 

.240 risp

.125 risp 2 out

.176 close and late

.214 runners on

.083 runners on 2 out

.429 runner on 3rd

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QUOTE(TheBlackSox8 @ Jul 20, 2005 -> 05:29 PM)
looking into it more..he's hitting .333 with runners in scoring position after the break.....

Whenever I see .333, I want to know how many abs -- in this case, he went 2 for 6.

 

C'mon. Suppose that just one of those hits was a walk, then PK's 1 for 5, .200 ba. Does that one ab change anything?

 

Some idea of sample size is crucial for giving your argument any kind of plausibility. So often these risp args have no mention of the number of abs you're talking about. PK with risp had a horrible April, even worse than he was hitting overall in April. He was great in May, way above what he was hitting overall. Since then he's been slightly below his overall numbers. That sounds like perfectly normal variation to me, when we're only talking about (roughly) 15-30 abs with risp in any given month. Put differently, the entire 'PK is bad with risp' argument depends on one month, April. Take that out and he's hitting over .272 with risp, not bad at all. And of course, last year he was great with risp, better than his overall numbers. But April IS the most meaningful month. Noone's ever slumped in April.

 

What this should show is that anytime you make a conclusion based only on a week or two weeks' worth of abs, it's going to be a reach. But those conclusions never seem to go away.

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QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Jul 20, 2005 -> 04:17 PM)
Whenever I see .333, I want to know how many abs -- in this case, he went 2 for 6.

 

C'mon.  Suppose that just one of those hits was a walk, then PK's 1 for 5, .200 ba.  Does that one ab change anything?

 

Some idea of sample size is crucial for giving your argument any kind of plausibility.    So often these risp args have no mention of the number of abs you're talking about.  PK with risp had a horrible April, even worse than he was hitting overall in April.  He was great in May, way above what he was hitting overall.  Since then he's been slightly below his overall numbers.  That sounds like perfectly normal variation to me, when we're only talking about (roughly) 15-30 abs with risp in any given month.  Put differently, the entire 'PK is bad with risp' argument depends on one month, April.  Take that out and he's hitting over .272 with risp, not bad at all.  And of course, last year he was great with risp, better than his overall numbers.  But April IS the most meaningful month.  Noone's ever slumped in April.

 

What this should show is that anytime you make a conclusion based only on a week or two weeks' worth of abs, it's going to be a reach.  But those conclusions never seem to go away.

If your going to make the April argument for Paulie then you can make that argument for Frank too. He has played 34 games so far.

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