Repercussions of Burnett/Lowell trade

[VAfan]

The Burnett speculation thread seems to be filled with 99% speculation still, but let's assume for a moment we're getting AJ and Lowell soon for the cost of BMac and Marte. What should the Sox do then?

 

1. Lowell v. Crede. I don't buy the theory that you keep both on the team so that Lowell can replace Konerko next year. Lowell is a 3B. If he hits to his career averages, he is clearly a better 3B than Crede.

 

Here's Lowell's average year:

5.72 162 593 80 162 41 0 24 98 58 89 3 1 .273 .340 .466 .806

Here's Crede's:

2.86 162 553 70 141 29 1 23 81 33 89 1 2 .255 .304 .435 .739

 

Lowell is 31, while Crede is 27, so the trends should move together, but if the Marlins are picking up 1/3 of Lowell's contract over the next 2-1/2 years, he should be a fine bridge to Fields.

 

That means if we're taking on Lowell, then KW must already have another trade in mind involving Joe Crede. The problem is, who would he help? Cleveland, Minnesota, Seattle, the Nats, and Philadelphia. Only the last team is a possible trade partner.

 

2. Whither Contreras? With Burnett on the team, are we really going to pay Jose Contreras close to $8 million to become a long reliever? Do we trust his wildness and inability to prevent steals enough to use him as an alternative closer? Must we keep him around to protect against El Duque going down again? Does this depend on re-signing Burnett?

 

I think the answer is to trade Contreras to a contender that needs a starting pitcher. Again, the logical choice would be Philadelphia.

 

3. Will Philly accept Contreras, Crede, and Vizcaino for Billy Wagner? This would be the logical repercussion of a Sox trade for Burnett and Lowell. To try to add Billy Wagner in a huge push to win it all this year. Philly might go for it if they get 3 major league players in the deal. Indeed, they might be crazy not to go for it.

 

The result would be that we would have surrendered BMac to get:

 

Burnett for Contreras

Wagner for Marte and Vizcaino

Lowell for Crede

 

We could then bring up Bajenaru for the last spot in the pen.

 

4. Will those additions be enough? I would consider one other move. Trying to pry Omar Vizquel from SF for Juan Uribe and prospects.

 

Of course, all of this would be too good to be true, especially if JR spent the money to re-sign both Burnett and Wagner for the next couple of years.

 

A possible lineup that is solid 1-9:

 

Pods LF

Iguchi 2B

Everett DH

Konerko 1B

Dye RF

Pierzynski C

Rowand CF

Lowell 3B

Vizquel SS

 

Bench: Ozuna, Harris (for speed), Gload, Widger, Perez.

 

A possible rotation:

 

Buehrle

Garcia

Garland

Burnett

El Duque

 

Bullpen: Wagner, Politte, Cotts, Hermanson, Jenks, Bajenaru

 

If you add a 90% Frank Thomas in mid-September through the postseason, this team could match up with anyone.

 

With Lowell/Vizquel instead of Crede/Uribe we would have changed the left side of the infield, but we would have veteran presence and solid defense. Plus WS experience and a lot fewer outs. It is this last point that sells me. Without Thomas our lineup would have no superstars. But is also would have no weak links.

[Ozzie Montana]

A possible lineup that is solid 1-9:

 

Pods LF 

Iguchi 2B

Everett DH

Konerko 1B

Dye RF

Pierzynski C

Rowand CF

Lowell 3B

Vizquel SS

 

Bench: Ozuna, Harris (for speed), Gload, Widger, Perez.

 

A possible rotation:

 

Buehrle

Garcia

Garland

Burnett

El Duque

 

Bullpen:  Wagner, Politte, Cotts, Hermanson, Jenks, Bajenaru

 

If you add a 90% Frank Thomas in mid-September through the postseason, this team could match up with anyone.   

 

With Lowell/Vizquel instead of Crede/Uribe we would have changed the left side of the infield, but we would have veteran presence and solid defense.  Plus WS experience and a lot fewer outs.  It is this last point that sells me.  Without Thomas our lineup would have no superstars.  But is also would have no weak links.

That would be one hell of a lineup and pitching

[daa84]

The Burnett speculation thread seems to be filled with 99% speculation still, but let's assume for a moment we're getting AJ and Lowell soon for the cost of BMac and Marte.  What should the Sox do then?

 

1.  Lowell v. Crede.  I don't buy the theory that you keep both on the team so that Lowell can replace Konerko next year.  Lowell is a 3B.  If he hits to his career averages, he is clearly a better 3B than Crede. 

 

Here's Lowell's average year:

5.72 162 593 80 162 41 0 24 98 58 89 3 1 .273 .340 .466 .806

Here's Crede's:

2.86 162 553 70 141 29 1 23 81 33 89 1 2 .255 .304 .435 .739

 

Lowell is 31, while Crede is 27, so the trends should move together, but if the Marlins are picking up 1/3 of Lowell's contract over the next 2-1/2 years, he should be a fine bridge to Fields.

 

That means if we're taking on Lowell, then KW must already have another trade in mind involving Joe Crede.  The problem is, who would he help?  Cleveland, Minnesota, Seattle, the Nats, and Philadelphia.  Only the last team is a possible trade partner. 

 

2.  Whither Contreras?  With Burnett on the team, are we really going to pay Jose Contreras close to $8 million to become a long reliever?  Do we trust his wildness and inability to prevent steals enough to use him as an alternative closer?  Must we keep him around to protect against El Duque going down again?  Does this depend on re-signing Burnett?

 

I think the answer is to trade Contreras to a contender that needs a starting pitcher.  Again, the logical choice would be Philadelphia. 

 

3.  Will Philly accept Contreras, Crede, and Vizcaino for Billy Wagner?  This would be the logical repercussion of a Sox trade for Burnett and Lowell.  To try to add Billy Wagner in a huge push to win it all this year.  Philly might go for it if they get 3 major league players in the deal.  Indeed, they might be crazy not to go for it. 

 

The result would be that we would have surrendered BMac to get:

 

Burnett for Contreras

Wagner for Marte and Vizcaino

Lowell for Crede

 

We could then bring up Bajenaru for the last spot in the pen. 

 

4.  Will those additions be enough?  I would consider one other move.  Trying to pry Omar Vizquel from SF for Juan Uribe and prospects. 

 

Of course, all of this would be too good to be true, especially if JR spent the money to re-sign both Burnett and Wagner for the next couple of years.

 

A possible lineup that is solid 1-9:

 

Pods LF 

Iguchi 2B

Everett DH

Konerko 1B

Dye RF

Pierzynski C

Rowand CF

Lowell 3B

Vizquel SS

 

Bench: Ozuna, Harris (for speed), Gload, Widger, Perez.

 

A possible rotation:

 

Buehrle

Garcia

Garland

Burnett

El Duque

 

Bullpen:  Wagner, Politte, Cotts, Hermanson, Jenks, Bajenaru

 

If you add a 90% Frank Thomas in mid-September through the postseason, this team could match up with anyone.   

 

With Lowell/Vizquel instead of Crede/Uribe we would have changed the left side of the infield, but we would have veteran presence and solid defense.  Plus WS experience and a lot fewer outs.  It is this last point that sells me.  Without Thomas our lineup would have no superstars.  But is also would have no weak links.

next time you give stats, how bout letting everyone know what they actually mean instead of just giving us numbers

[ptatc]

I think the idea behind adding lowell is for a RH DH and guy off the bench in case Thomas can't go anymore.

[VAfan]

next time you give stats, how bout letting everyone know what they actually mean instead of just giving us numbers

 

You ought to be able to read that without guidance. All the stat lines are the same. In this case the first number is the number of years, but everything else is normal.

 

As for the comment about making Lowell as a RH DH, I think this would be stupid. Everett is actually hitting much better from the right side this year. If Lowell is part of any deal, we need to trade him or Crede to the Phillies as part of a package for Billy Wagner.

 

But all of this appears like a total long shot.

[DBAHO]

Since Philly's in the race, can't see them dealing Wagner, especially since Urbina has struggled mightily at Citizens. I think Contreras could be used in a trade with Arizona however for one of their 1B guys like Chad Tracy, but the Sox would have to throw in a prospect or 2.