Don't trade Brandon McCarthy

[VAfan]

With most of the big names not likely to get moved -- AJ Burnett, Jason Schmidt, and Billy Wagner -- I don't think there is anyone on the market worth trading Brandon McCarthy for. Not Aubrey Huff, Eddie Guardado, etc., etc., and definitely not Danys "Blown Save" Baez.

 

One of the posts on here noted that McCarthy has settled down at AAA, with a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 games, including an 8-inning shut out last time out.

 

I think McCarthy could still help us as a last arm in the bullpen if they would let him finish his AAA season and bring him up as a September call up.

 

And I don't want to mortgage the future of the franchise for a mediocre player that isn't go to be the key to the future of this team like Brandon McCarthy could be.

 

Where would we be this year if we'd dumped Jon Garland for the mediocre 1B of the Angels? We'd be about even with the Twins, and likely to fade down the stretch like we did each of the last 3 years.

 

We need to keep core, impact, young ballplayers.

 

As someone said, the best chance to win it all is to be in the postseason every year, not just one out of every 5 years.

 

Sure, we've got an excellent chance this year, and I'm willing to part with non-essential pieces. But I'm going to be sick if we pull another Kip Wells/Josh Fogg type overpayment deal on someone who never contributed a lick to our team.

 

KEEP MCCARTHY (and Politte, Cotts, Sweeney, Young, and Jenks).

[LosMediasBlancas]

Basically, you're saying don't make a trade.

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

With most of the big names not likely to get moved -- AJ Burnett, Jason Schmidt, and Billy Wagner -- I don't think there is anyone on the market worth trading Brandon McCarthy for.  Not Aubrey Huff, Eddie Guardado, etc., etc., and definitely not Danys "Blown Save" Baez.

 

We don't know for a fact that they are not getting move, it could be teams blowing smoke to drive up the price. This is the closest this team as to winning and years, if the deal is right, McCarthy is a goner, its the nature of the trade.

[Kalapse]

Why keep Sweeney. His value is high and I for one am not sold on him at all, but that's besides the point.

 

Huff and Overbay, two players you did not mention but were possibly eluding to are not mediocre players. If McCarthy is what it takes to land a player like that I'd go for it. Both would be around for years to come and are just about gauranteed to be productive over that time.

 

As much as I like McCarthy and I have defended him a lot (just go back to that Contreras thread) he is no gaurentee, a player such as Overbay or Huff on the other hand are much more of a gaurentee to help out in the long run than a prospect such as McCarthy.

 

My Untouchable: Young and Jenks, that is all.

[Rowand44]

Brandon's the last prospect I want to trade but if we could land Huff or Overbay or Wagner, basically anyone who could put the sox over the top I would trade Brandon for.

[Whitewashed in '05]

KW holds McCarthy a lot higher than mostly everyone here does after his unsuccesful major league stints so its safe to say that unless its worth it KW will not let McCarthy go.

 

In KW I trust.

[nitetrain8601]

Only guy I hold onto is Jenks. Everyone is available. I mean everyone. Gio, BMac, Sweeney, Anderson, etc.

[Kalapse]

KW holds McCarthy a lot higher than mostly everyone here does after his unsuccesful major league stints so its safe to say that unless its worth it KW will not let McCarthy go.

 

In KW I trust.

 

2005 White Sox Version.

 

f*** Dusty.

[sircaffey]

 

2005 White Sox Version.

 

f*** Dusty.

 

How about some black and white lettering?

[Kalapse]

How about some black and white lettering?

We can do that.

[Kalapse]

 

...

Edited July 29, 2005 by Kalapse

[GreenSox]

With most of the big names not likely to get moved -- AJ Burnett, Jason Schmidt, and Billy Wagner -- I don't think there is anyone on the market worth trading Brandon McCarthy for.  Not Aubrey Huff, Eddie Guardado, etc., etc., and definitely not Danys "Blown Save" Baez.

 

One of the posts on here noted that McCarthy has settled down at AAA, with a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 games, including an 8-inning shut out last time out.

 

I think McCarthy could still help us as a last arm in the bullpen if they would let him finish his AAA season and bring him up as a September call up.

 

And I don't want to mortgage the future of the franchise for a mediocre player that isn't go to be the key to the future of this team like Brandon McCarthy could be. 

 

Where would we be this year if we'd dumped Jon Garland for the mediocre 1B of the Angels?  We'd be about even with the Twins, and likely to fade down the stretch like we did each of the last 3 years.

 

We need to keep core, impact, young ballplayers. 

 

As someone said, the best chance to win it all is to be in the postseason every year, not just one out of every 5 years.

 

Sure, we've got an excellent chance this year, and I'm willing to part with non-essential pieces.  But I'm going to be sick if we pull another Kip Wells/Josh Fogg type overpayment deal on someone who never contributed a lick to our team.

 

KEEP MCCARTHY (and Politte, Cotts, Sweeney, Young, and Jenks).

 

I concur with your sentiments, but we may need to trade him anyway.

But, I'd much rather see us trade an outfield prospect, since we have so many.

Fogg and Wells aren't even top rung pitchers, and the loss of them hurts anyway.

I think McCarthy is going to be a really good pitcher.

 

We are really set up to contend for a long time. WE have some good, but old, players under reasonable, but short term contracts. They'll roll off, and it sure would be nice to replace some of them with some young players. We'll need to.

 

If we trade 3 or 4 prospects this year, better hope we win it all this year; and that's even more the case if we pick up some bad contracts along the way

M

[VAfan]

Aubrey Huff would be a nice addition if he could be had for a fair price. He could play some 3B, some 1B, some RF, some DH. And he'd be a lefty bat. But he's not worth signing as a full-time player at any of those positions.

 

Lyle Overbay is a 1B without power. Again, he's a nice average ballplayer. He would help us, but Milwaukee isn't trading him so it's a moot point.

 

Eddie Guadado is a very nice relief pitcher. He's been solid at it for longer than Dustin Hermanson. If Seattle would take Damaso Marte for him straight up, I'd do it in a second. But he's said to have a bum shoulder and he has a $7 million option for next year. That's way too pricey for the Sox.

 

Danys Baez has 7 blown saves this year. In 2003 he had 10. I wouldn't want him if they gave him to us, which TB won't do.

 

Manny Ramirez is a great hitter. But he's a malcontent, a terrible fielder, and he has a contract that's $19 million/year for the next 3 years. You think JR would pay that? Would Manny be happy as a DH? Let him go to the Mets.

 

Who am I missing?

 

 

 

None of these guys is worth moving Brandon McCarthy for. McCarthy is a very solid pitcher. Look at Oakland. They have retooled with young arms like Brandon McCarthy. These guys win, but cost them nothing. Do you know how valuable that is?

 

I think McCarthy just got rushed, based on his spring training performance, and it messed him up a bit. Remember, hadn't he only pitched a bit in AA before being raced to the big leagues? Now that he's been allowed to settle down, he has.

 

It may be that he needs an offseason to develop a cutter to get better movement on his fastball, and to gain confidence in his changeup. With those pitches, and his ability to throw strikes, the kid could be a 15-game winner next year, or in 2 years.

 

We are going to need 2 new starters pretty soon to replace Contreras and El Duque. McCarthy should be one of them.

 

And in the meantime, I think McCarthy would be better than Jenks pitching out of the pen in this year's postseason. So don't think he can't help us this year. He can.

 

***************

I'm not against making a trade. I'm just against giving up a critical piece of our future for a very marginal gain in the present.

 

P.S. I'd be willing to give up any other player or players on our AAA club, but not McCarthy.

Edited July 30, 2005 by VAfan

[VAfan]

Let me toss out a name I would consider trading McCarthy for.

 

 

ADAM DUNN.

[3E8]

Let me toss out a name I would consider trading McCarthy for.

ADAM DUNN.

Agree 100%.

[Kalapse]

Aubrey Huff would be a nice addition if he could be had for a fair price.  He could play some 3B, some 1B, some RF, some DH.  And he'd be a lefty bat.  But he's not worth signing as a full-time player at any of those positions. 

Lyle Overbay is a 1B without power.  Again, he's a nice average ballplayer.  He would help us, but Milwaukee isn't trading him so it's a moot point. 

Eddie Guadado is a very nice relief pitcher.  He's been solid at it for longer than Dustin Hermanson.  If Seattle would take Damaso Marte for him straight up, I'd do it in a second.  But he's said to have a bum shoulder and he has a $7 million option for next year.  That's way too pricey for the Sox. 

Danys Baez has 7 blown saves this year.  In 2003 he had 10.  I wouldn't want him if they gave him to us, which TB won't do.

 

Manny Ramirez is a great hitter.  But he's a malcontent, a terrible fielder, and he has a contract that's $19 million/year for the next 3 years.  You think JR would pay that?  Would Manny be happy as a DH?  Let him go to the Mets.

 

Who am I missing?

None of these guys is worth moving Brandon McCarthy for.  McCarthy is a very solid pitcher.  Look at Oakland.  They have retooled with young arms like Brandon McCarthy.  These guys win, but cost them nothing.  Do you know how valuable that is? 

 

I think McCarthy just got rushed, based on his spring training performance, and it messed him up a bit.  Remember, hadn't he only pitched a bit in AA before being raced to the big leagues?  Now that he's been allowed to settle down, he has. 

 

It may be that he needs an offseason to develop a cutter to get better movement on his fastball, and to gain confidence in his changeup.  With those pitches, and his ability to throw strikes, the kid could be a 15-game winner next year, or in 2 years. 

 

We are going to need 2 new starters pretty soon to replace Contreras and El Duque.  McCarthy should be one of them. 

 

And in the meantime, I think McCarthy would be better than Jenks pitching out of the pen in this year's postseason.  So don't think he can't help us this year.  He can. 

 

***************

I'm not against making a trade.  I'm just against giving up a critical piece of our future for a very marginal gain in the present.

 

P.S.  I'd be willing to give up any other player or players on our AAA club, but not McCarthy.

Aubrey Huff is not worth signing to a long term contract at any of 1B, DH or OF? Well that makes s*** of sense. Last take a look at Aubrey Huff's short career shall we.

_____________________________________________________________

2000: (Rookie Year) only 122 ABs batted .287 with 4 HRs and a .760 OPS

2001: 411 ABs 25 2B, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .248 BA, .288 OBP, .660 OPS

2002: 454 ABs 25 2B, 23 HR, 59 RBI, .313 BA, .364 OBP, .884 OPS

2003: 636 ABs 47 2B, 34 HR, 107 RBI, .311 BA, .367 OBP, .922 OPS

2004: 600 ABs 27 2B, 29 HR, 104 RBI, .297 BA, .360 OBP, .853 OPS

2005: 364 ABs 17 2B, 13 HR, 60 RBI, .266 BA, .326 OBP, .749 OPS

+++

'05 July: 93 ABs 6 2B, 8 HR, 21 RBI, .311 BA, .347 OBP, .958 OPS

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Looking at his '03 and '04 seasons alone at the age of 26 and 27 once he was settled into the league (you can't count this season seeing how there's still 2 months left), if you average those two seasons out you get:

 

'03+'04: 618 ABs 37 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI, .304 BA, .363 OBP, .887 OPS

 

That my friend is a 30/100/.300 player with a .875+ OPS. Those types of players are hard to come by. He would be worth signing to a long term contract to serve as your 1Bman or DH. He's only 28 and switching to a contender would most likely just improve his production seeing how he'll have something to play for for the first time in his career.

 

- Overbay is not an average player and does have POWER, despite popular opinion, however I'm tired and I'll let you look up those stats yourself.

 

The $7M option you speak of for next year is not in existence.

 

'06: $4.25M Player Option + $6.25M Team Option.

 

Most likely with a player like Gaurdado who is a stud closer, he would pick up his player option for $4.25M which is extremely reasonable for a player of his caliber. Hell even if he didn't pick up his option and the team picked up their option on him he'd make $6.25M next year which is not outrageous. As for the partially torn rotator cuff, it has not been a problem for him for the first 4 months of the season and I would take the chance that it would not be a problem for the final 3 months. He said if it came down to it he'd have the surgery to repair the partial tear after this season which would mean immediate surgery and rehab which would most likely put him back on the team in April.

 

Oh yeah Billy Wagner is making $9M this season. Just some food for thought.

 

Huff - 30/100/.300 guy

Overbay - Excellent 1Bman with good gap power and high BA

Gaurdado - Stud closer with possible injury problem, could be a huge difference maker for a contender.

[VAfan]

Aubrey Huff is not worth signing to a long term contract at any of 1B, DH or OF? Well that makes s*** of sense. Last take a look at Aubrey Huff's short career shall we.

_____________________________________________________________

2000: (Rookie Year) only 122 ABs batted .287 with 4 HRs and a .760 OPS

2001: 411 ABs 25 2B, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .248 BA, .288 OBP, .660 OPS

2002: 454 ABs 25 2B, 23 HR, 59 RBI, .313 BA, .364 OBP, .884 OPS

2003: 636 ABs 47 2B, 34 HR, 107 RBI, .311 BA, .367 OBP, .922 OPS

2004: 600 ABs 27 2B, 29 HR, 104 RBI, .297 BA, .360 OBP, .853 OPS

2005: 364 ABs 17 2B, 13 HR, 60 RBI, .266 BA, .326 OBP, .749 OPS

+++

'05 July: 93 ABs 6 2B, 8 HR, 21 RBI, .311 BA, .347 OBP, .958 OPS

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Looking at his '03 and '04 seasons alone at the age of 26 and 27 once he was settled into the league (you can't count this season seeing how there's still 2 months left), if you average those two seasons out you get:

 

'03+'04: 618 ABs 37 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI, .304 BA, .363 OBP, .887 OPS

 

That my friend is a 30/100/.300 player with a .875+ OPS. Those types of players are hard to come by. He would be worth signing to a long term contract to serve as your 1Bman or DH. He's only 28 and switching to a contender would most likely just improve his production seeing how he'll have something to play for for the first time in his career.

 

 

 

 

I just don't think Aubrey Huff is a difference maker as an offensive player. He's a nice solid ballplayer who started the season worse than Juan Uribe, but he's turned it around in July. Would I take him over Carl Everett next year as a DH and platoon guy? Yes, because he's signed for another year. Do I think he's a better hitter than Jermaine Dye or Paul Konerko? He was in 2002. But his decline early this year gives one pause.

 

My point is that I believe Brandon McCarthy will definitely be a difference maker, and I'm not willing to trade a guy we might have for a year and 2 months for a pitcher who might become a key member of our rotation for 5-6 years. If McCarthy is even 80% as good as Jack McDowell, that would be a lot of wins before he became a free agent.

 

I'm willing to consider trading McCarthy for another cornerstone player who is in his early 20s that is just as good. But I hope he's not traded for someone, like Aubrey Huff or Danys Baez who would only be on our team for a blip in time and in 5 years you would have forgotten that they ever played for the Sox. (Again, I'd be happy to add Huff; I just wouldn't trade McCarthy to get him. "Blown Save" Baez I'd rather pass on regardless of price.)

 

As for Guardado, I think he'd be a great addition. Indeed, I think he could add more value to our playoff roster than many of the names being bandied about. But it won't take Brandon McCarthy to get him.

[Kalapse]

I just don't think Aubrey Huff is a difference maker as an offensive player.  He's a nice solid ballplayer who started the season worse than Juan Uribe, but he's turned it around in July.  Would I take him over Carl Everett next year as a DH and platoon guy?  Yes, because he's signed for another year.  Do I think he's a better hitter than Jermaine Dye or Paul Konerko?  He was in 2002.  But his decline early this year gives one pause.

 

My point is that I believe Brandon McCarthy will definitely be a difference maker, and I'm not willing to trade a guy we might have for a year and 2 months for a pitcher who might become a key member of our rotation for 5-6 years.  If McCarthy is even 80% as good as Jack McDowell, that would be a lot of wins before he became a free agent. 

 

I'm willing to consider trading McCarthy for another cornerstone player who is in his early 20s that is just as good.  But I hope he's not traded for someone, like Aubrey Huff or Danys Baez who would only be on our team for a blip in time and in 5 years you would have forgotten that they ever played for the Sox.  (Again, I'd be happy to add Huff; I just wouldn't trade McCarthy to get him.  "Blown Save" Baez I'd rather pass on regardless of price.)

 

As for Guardado, I think he'd be a great addition.  Indeed, I think he could add more value to our playoff roster than many of the names being bandied about.  But it won't take Brandon McCarthy to get him.

You totally underrated Aubrey Huff.

[BlackBetsy]

I think that if you have to ask the question "Where do I fit this guy into the lineup?," you don't trade McCarthy for him. That kind of excludes Aubrey Huff IMHO.

 

I don't like a two-month rental of AJ Burnett, either, since McCarthy will be better than Burnett in 2007, and if you don't trade him, he will be a White Sox in 2007. Burnett won't.

 

I'm now pretty firmly against trading McCarthy for any of the shark bait out there. Adam Dunn I could see, if he were available, but he's not.

[Kyyle23]

Lyle Overbay is a 1B without power.  Again, he's a nice average ballplayer. 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4598

 

Everyone keeps saying that Overbay has no power, this is a myth. He is on pace for 25 homeruns and 34 doubles this year, after 53 doubles and 16 homeruns last year. His power has gone up pretty much every year he has played, and he has always had a .300 average capability.

 

A lifetime slugging percentage of .464 is pretty good, is it not? And having a .497 slugging percentage this year means he is producing some power this year, does it not? .381 OBP this year, .385 last year, lifetime .378.....

 

I know the chances of acquiring him are slim, but the guy definitely has pop in his bat. And moving to The Cell is only going to increase the pop in his bat.

[quickman]

The best thing that ever happened to mcarthy was this years spring training. If not for the spring, and the ESPN game in the spring, people would not feel BMAC was a top pitching prospect in AAA. He is good but, really does anyone on this board know how good he really is? Is he a 1 or 2 or a 5? I think we banter through days of stats and posts, keep your eyes on the mark(world series) fill the holes, make your run. Mcarthy's arm could be shut down tommorrow just like Honel.

[3E8]

I don't like a two-month rental of AJ Burnett, either, since McCarthy will be better than Burnett in 2007

What makes you say this? It seems like a very subjective comment to me. The only way I could see it happening is if Burnett is injured.

[VAfan]

I think that if you have to ask the question "Where do I fit this guy into the lineup?," you don't trade McCarthy for him.  That kind of excludes Aubrey Huff IMHO.

 

I don't like a two-month rental of AJ Burnett, either, since McCarthy will be better than Burnett in 2007, and if you don't trade him, he will be a White Sox in 2007.  Burnett won't.

 

I'm now pretty firmly against trading McCarthy for any of the shark bait out there.  Adam Dunn I could see, if he were available, but he's not.

 

I love your question "Where do I fit this guy into the lineup"? It captures Aubrey Huff perfectly. Frankly, it also fits for Lyle Overbay, who wouldn't send Paul Konerko to the bench either (though I think Overbay has more upside than Huff).

 

Kalapse, methinks you seriously overrate Huff, who is a bad defensive player at any position he plays.

 

Now again, I'd love Huff for the stretch run. But not at the cost of McCarthy. It's McCarthy's K/BB ratio that convinces me he's going to be a solid pitcher. Give him a year of AAA seasoning and an offseason to improve his changeup and he'll be ready to help us next year. Then I expect him to take over for one of the Cubans full time in 2007 and not look back.

 

Oakland, Oakland, Oakland.

 

They are going to pass the Angels and win the west because Billy Beane values young pitchers, finds the right ones, and lets them play. It keeps his payroll down too.

[daa84]

Oakland, Oakland, Oakland.

 

 

there are many ways to build a club. oakland does extremely well being able to build on young players. but its an extremely difficult way to win. there are countless other teams that fail at it. sooner or later it will fail for oakland too, but thats how baseball is , its cyclic. the yankees and red sox win every year by making those trades for huff and not playin any youngsters( til this year). that also inflates payroll, so midlevel teams must find a way to balance what oakland and new york do, and i think the white sox can and should go out and get huff, because i think in the second half in our ballpark, he would be our second best overall hitter, behind dye

[Kyyle23]

I love your question "Where do I fit this guy into the lineup"?  It captures Aubrey Huff perfectly.  Frankly, it also fits for Lyle Overbay, who wouldn't send Paul Konerko to the bench either (though I think Overbay has more upside than Huff). 

 

 

Why would Huff or Overbay send Konerko to the bench? Overbay would be the platooning DH/1B, and Huff could possibly be platooning 3B/1B/DH as well. One of these guys is the difference between Timo being your replacement DH when Carl gets tossed and Huff/Overbay being your replacement.

 

Everyone said there wouldnt be enough at-bats for Frank and Carl when Frank came back. Ozzie found the at-bats to make everyone happy. It isnt going to be brain-science if one of these guys is acquired.