Don't trade Brandon McCarthy

[VAfan]

there are many ways to build a club. oakland does extremely well being able to build on young players. but its an extremely difficult way to win. there are countless other teams that fail at it. sooner or later it will fail for oakland too, but thats how baseball is , its cyclic. the yankees and red sox win every year by making those trades for huff and not playin any youngsters( til this year). that also inflates payroll, so midlevel teams must find a way to balance what oakland and new york do, and i think the white sox can and should go out and get huff, because i think in the second half in our ballpark, he would be our second best overall hitter, behind dye

 

I'm not against getting Huff. Way way back in May I think I suggested he'd be a good trade acquisition.

 

But he's not a cornerstone player. Brandon McCarthy is going to be a cornerstone player within the next 2 years.

 

By no later than 2007, we have to replace both of our Cuban starters. Who is going to fill those holes? Is JR going to beat all bidders and put AJ Burnett in one of those slots? I don't think so.

 

Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher we have in our system that can fill one of those holes by 2007. Neal Cotts would rank #2, but that would rob us of a great bullpen pitcher.

 

In the meantime, does Aubrey Huff even start game 1 of the playoffs? Does Ozzie use him instead of Crede? Everett? Konerko? Dye? Podsednik?

[YASNY]

Well ... They didn't trade Brandon McCarthy.

[danman31]

What makes you say this?  It seems like a very subjective comment to me.  The only way I could see it happening is if Burnett is injured.

While I'm not sure I agree with BB's statement, Burnett isn't really that good. I could see BMac being at least as good or better in a couple years. It's within reason IMO.

[3E8]

While I'm not sure I agree with BB's statement, Burnett isn't really that good. I could see BMac being at least as good or better in a couple years. It's within reason IMO.

I think BMac being better at some point is surely within reason, but '07 will probably be his first year as a full time starter in the bigs. I don't expect it to be smooth sailing immediately for McCarthy while Burnett will have another full year to improve upon his game. To guarantee BMac will be better than AJB as soon as he accepts his projected role seems a bit iffy.

[Chisoxfn]

Brandon will gain more experience the rest of the year for Charlotte. He's still a little over a year removed from being in Kannapolis (don't forget that). It appears he's getting things figured out in AAA and is starting to get comfortable.

 

My guess is the Sox will call him up in September and if the Sox clinch relatively early you'll see Brandon enter the rotation as the Sox expand it to a 6 man rotation. Basically it will be a way to give the starters a little extra rest before entering the postseason.

 

I for one am happy. No one else significantly upgraded their team and because of that the Sox were able to keep their farmhands, two of which are pretty damn good (Anderson/Brandon).

[Dam8610]

The best thing that ever happened to mcarthy was this years spring training. If not for the spring, and the ESPN game in the spring, people would not feel BMAC was a top  pitching prospect in AAA. He is good but, really does anyone on this board know how good he really is? Is he a 1 or 2 or a 5? I think we banter through days of stats and posts, keep your eyes on the mark(world series) fill the holes, make your run. Mcarthy's arm could be shut down tommorrow just like Honel.

 

If he keeps up his production levels from past seasons (and what he's put up since going back to Charlotte), he should be a very good pitcher for many years. Throughout his minor league career prior to this year, he averaged 10.4 K/9, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 6.77 K/BB ratio. If he can put up anything CLOSE to those numbers in the bigs, he will be a great starter. Granted, he could be injured, but so could any big name that would be brought in via trade. So, when it comes down to it, if Kenny didn't feel there was a deal worth sending McCarthy to another team for, then there probably wasn't.

[VAfan]

If he keeps up his production levels from past seasons (and what he's put up since going back to Charlotte), he should be a very good pitcher for many years. Throughout his minor league career prior to this year, he averaged 10.4 K/9, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 6.77 K/BB ratio. If he can put up anything CLOSE to those numbers in the bigs, he will be a great starter. Granted, he could be injured, but so could any big name that would be brought in via trade. So, when it comes down to it, if Kenny didn't feel there was a deal worth sending McCarthy to another team for, then there probably wasn't.

 

Excellent point. Do you have any comparables?

[VAfan]

K/BB ratios better than McCarthy's 6.77: Brad Radke 7.17; Carlos Silva 7.14

 

K/9 ratios better than McCarthy's 10.4. No one. Jake Peavy's 9.98 is tops.

 

WHIPs ratios better than McCarthy's 1.07: Pedro Martinez .85, Roy Halladay .96, Clemens .96, Peavy 1.02, Carpenter 1.02. Tied Santana 1.07.

 

Obviously you can't compare AAA to the major leagues. Nonetheless, for those guys who wanted to trade McCarthy for a bag of popcorn and said he had reached the zenith of his value, I'd say I'm glad KW didn't seem to agree.

[Kalapse]

K/BB ratios better than McCarthy's 6.77: Brad Radke 7.17; Carlos Silva 7.14

 

K/9 ratios better than McCarthy's 10.4.  No one.  Jake Peavy's 9.98 is tops.

 

WHIPs ratios better than McCarthy's 1.07: Pedro Martinez .85, Roy Halladay .96, Clemens .96, Peavy 1.02, Carpenter 1.02.  Tied Santana 1.07.

 

Obviously you can't compare AAA to the major leagues.  Nonetheless, for those guys who wanted to trade McCarthy for a bag of popcorn and said he had reached the zenith of his value, I'd say I'm glad KW didn't seem to agree.

If you say at the end of your post that you "obviously can't compare AAA to the major leagues" then why did you? Comparing McCathy's K/BB, K/9 and his WHIP to the likes of Jake Peavy, Pedro Matinez, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana is just stupid. If you want to make a comparison compare his AAA numbers to other pitchers AAA numbers, don't go comparing minor league stats to the majors.

[YASNY]

If you say at the end of your post that you "obviously can't compare AAA to the major leagues" then why did you? Comparing McCathy's K/BB, K/9 and his WHIP to the likes of Jake Peavy, Pedro Matinez, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana is just stupid. If you want to make a comparison compare his AAA numbers to other pitchers AAA numbers, don't go comparing minor league stats to the majors.

 

Oh, I think he made a pretty good point.

[VAfan]

If you say at the end of your post that you "obviously can't compare AAA to the major leagues" then why did you? Comparing McCathy's K/BB, K/9 and his WHIP to the likes of Jake Peavy, Pedro Matinez, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana is just stupid. If you want to make a comparison compare his AAA numbers to other pitchers AAA numbers, don't go comparing minor league stats to the majors.

 

Do you know of a site that gives AAA comparables? I'll be happy to make the comparisons.

[Kyyle23]

Do you know of a site that gives AAA comparables?  I'll be happy to make the comparisons.

 

Does it matter? You are trying to say that Brandon McCarthy is good because of a fact that you cannot compare to a major leaguer. Then you compare that stat to a major leaguers stat. The argument is moot.

 

You can look around the minors for K/BB ratios and K/9 ratios that compare or are worse than BMACs, but in the end it doesnt matter because the minors are not even close to the majors.

[CWSGuy406]

On Baseball Prospectus' "Similarity Index", here are a couple of the notables on the list:

 

-Kris Honel

-Brad Penny

-Jerome Williams

-Mike Wood

-Jake Peavy

-Adam Wainwright

 

Tom Morgan is his number one comp. He pitched from '51-'63, and had a career ERA+ of 106 (100 being league average for that season).

 

Dan Petry is another comp. He pitched in the '80s, career ERA+ of 102.

 

Ralph Terry, finally, pitched in the 50s-60s, and also had a career ERA+ of 102.

 

 

So, it seems to me that they (BP) seems to think he'll most likely be a league average pitcher (that being his floor), with the potential (ceiling) to be a pretty damn good #1 (Peavy).

 

I've really enjoyed their free preview, so much so that I'll probably get the year's subscription.

[VAfan]

On Baseball Prospectus' "Similarity Index", here are a couple of the notables on the list:

 

-Kris Honel

-Brad Penny

-Jerome Williams

-Mike Wood

-Jake Peavy

-Adam Wainwright

 

Tom Morgan is his number one comp.  He pitched from '51-'63, and had a career ERA+ of 106 (100 being league average for that season). 

 

Dan Petry is another comp.  He pitched in the '80s, career ERA+ of 102. 

 

Ralph Terry, finally, pitched in the 50s-60s, and also had a career ERA+ of 102.

So, it seems to me that they (BP) seems to think he'll most likely be a league average pitcher (that being his floor), with the potential (ceiling) to be a pretty damn good #1 (Peavy). 

 

I've really enjoyed their free preview, so much so that I'll probably get the year's subscription.

 

Interesting. But are they making their comparisons on the fact that he has actually pitched in the majors, if only for a few games, or is it based on his minor league numbers?

 

Ultimately I'm willing to rely on Ozzie's own judgment, which may have been puffing, but compared him to Black Jack McDowell. If he's 80% of McDowell, he's a keeper.

 

Since the content is free until August 3, there is no harm in posting the Baseball Prospectus analysis on McCarthy. Here's the link.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/M...7A.php#fiveyear

Edited August 3, 2005 by VAfan

[CWSGuy406]

Here's how they judge the comps...

 

Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a player's comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the player's historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players).

 

Scroll up a little bit. They use minor league numbers in their PECOTA system.

[Dam8610]

On Baseball Prospectus' "Similarity Index", here are a couple of the notables on the list:

 

-Jake Peavy

 

I REALLY hope they're right on this one. Also, could someone please explain to me how in the world you read those charts and that data? It looks like Japanese to me.

[knightni]

Here's how they judge the comps...

Scroll up a little bit.  They use minor league numbers in their PECOTA system.

Pecota...

 

Like Bill Pecota?

[Dam8610]

Excellent point.  Do you have any comparables?

 

Well, after doing some research, I came up with comparable stats of some of the best pitchers in MLB from their minor league years.

 

Pedro Martinez: 8.53 K/9 1.19 WHIP 2.40 K/BB ratio

Roy Halladay: 5.87 K/9 1.31 WHIP 2.00 K/BB ratio

Jake Peavy: 11.33 K/9 1.10 WHIP 3.58 K/BB ratio (hence the comparisons)

Johan Santana: 9.41 K/9 1.36 WHIP 2.63 K/BB ratio

Ben Sheets: 7.43 K/9 1.26 WHIP 2.20 K/BB ratio

Dontrelle Willis: 7.38 K/9 0.95 WHIP 4.32 K/BB ratio

 

Of those, only Peavy has a better K/9, only Dontrelle has a better WHIP, and none of them have a better K/BB ratio. If anyone wants me to get comparables for any other pitcher, just tell me who.

Edited August 3, 2005 by Dam8610

[VAfan]

Well, after doing some research, I came up with comparable stats of some of the best pitchers in MLB from their minor league years.

 

Pedro Martinez: 8.53 K/9 1.19 WHIP 2.40 K/BB ratio

Roy Halladay: 5.87 K/9 1.31 WHIP 2.00 K/BB ratio

Jake Peavy: 11.33 K/9 1.10 WHIP 3.58 K/BB ratio (hence the comparisons)

Johan Santana: 9.41 K/9 1.36 WHIP 2.63 K/BB ratio

Ben Sheets: 7.43 K/9 1.26 WHIP 2.20 K/BB ratio

Dontrelle Willis: 7.38 K/9 0.95 WHIP 4.32 K/BB ratio

 

Of those, only Peavy has a better K/9, only Dontrelle has a better WHIP, and none of them have a better K/BB ratio. If anyone wants me to get comparables for any other pitcher, just tell me who.

 

I think what this shows is that pitchers actually can improve from AAA to the majors as they mature. Certainly BMac has the opportunity to gain command of new pitches - like a cutter - and he's going to get stronger and add weight to his 6-7 frame. That could increase his pitch velocity.

 

Thanks for the research.

[VAfan]

After Wednesday's performance against Texas, I just decided to revive this thread.

 

Ozzie and Co. are already talking about a 6-man rotation for the rest of the season, and if McCarthy stays on the roll he's been on since fixing his arm angle, they may start considering him for a postseason role.

[daa84]

After Wednesday's performance against Texas, I just decided to revive this thread. 

 

Ozzie and Co. are already talking about a 6-man rotation for the rest of the season, and if McCarthy stays on the roll he's been on since fixing his arm angle, they may start considering him for a postseason role.

shies away from personal attack

[SoxFanForever]

shies away from personal attack

[VAfan]

Okay, even I didn't see back-to-back outings completely shutting down Texas in Texas (when they had creamed Buehrle, Garland, and El Duque) and then Boston in Boston. (Do you think any other pitcher on our roster could have done that?)

 

Anyone still think we should have traded McCarthy?

[YASNY]

Okay, even I didn't see back-to-back outings completely shutting down Texas in Texas (when they had creamed Buehrle, Garland, and El Duque) and then Boston in Boston.  (Do you think any other pitcher on our roster could have done that?)

 

Anyone still think we should have traded McCarthy?

 

Hell, there were several around here that thought we never should have called him back up. Strange thing, but I haven't been hearing much of that lately.

[Chisoxfn]

2 starts one way or another don't mean anything. Only thing I know is the guy has some serious skills and has the ability to turn into a front of the rotation starter.