Official College Football Thread

[Wedge]

ND and Oregon's schedules are pretty damn close, the difference is Oregon has 1 loss.  OSU had a tougher schedule and Auburn had a much tougher schedule, this really isn't a tough decision in my mind but ND gets the bid cause of who they are.

 

Alternately, ND and Oregon both have 9 wins against Division I opponents.

 

OSU and Auburn played in overrated conferences.

 

You can say these things about each team. If you're really mad about the absense of Oregon or Auburn (the two likely to be left out), then be mad at the BCS which protects unworthy conference champs like West Virginia and FSU if it can beat VTech. ND is a top 8 team in the BCS and would probably beat both Oregon and Auburn; thus, I think they deserve a spot over those two teams. I think on a neutral field that they beat OSU.

 

That said, I agree with Fotop. It's good to be hated again.

[WHarris1]

Auburn played in overrated conferences.

[Chisoxfn]

Oregon is the team that plays in a lousy conference.

[Rowand44]

Alternately, ND and Oregon both have 9 wins against Division I opponents.

 

OSU and Auburn played in overrated conferences.

 

You can say these things about each team. If you're really mad about the absense of Oregon or Auburn (the two likely to be left out), then be mad at the BCS which protects unworthy conference champs like West Virginia and FSU if it can beat VTech. ND is a top 8 team in the BCS and would probably beat both Oregon and Auburn; thus, I think they deserve a spot over those two teams. I think on a neutral field that they beat OSU.

 

That said, I agree with Fotop. It's good to be hated again.

I do hate the BCS, trust me. That's why most of this stuff pisses me off.

[Wedge]

 

I think the SEC as a whole this year is a collection of teams with above average defenses and bad offenses. For the most part, many of the SEC teams started out highly ranked. Thus, when a lower ranked SEC team beat a higher ranked one, there was basic conservation of overall rankings within the conference. When I look at the best four teams from the SEC this year: LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama, I see teams that aren't much different form Tennessee, except with better quarterback play (Alabama being the clear exception, they got by with a better defense and some luck). If ND plays one of those teams in a bowl, I just don't see them having the offenses to keep up with ND and I think Weis's offense would neutralize the athleticism of their defenses, much like it did against Tennessee.

 

Oregon, like its schedule, is a total joke. Which team is worse, Montana or Syracuse? At worst they're equal, but more likely Syracuse would beat them head-to-head. Yet under the current most BCS computer poll SOS systems, playing Montana gives Oregon a large boost over ND, because Montana was 8-4 and Syracuse was 1-10.

 

OSU lost a tough game to PSU and Texas. Clearly, both ND and OSU have progressed significantly since both their losses, but I think that College Football is primarly offensive in that the better offense wins. Defense does not play the same role it does in the NFL since it is very difficult to build the collection of athletes to have a dominating defense. Is there a College team with a defense that you would bet everything you own on to keep the elite teams, say USC or Texas, under 28 points? Ultimately, I feel like Weis would use a lot of 4 and 5 wide sets to neutralize OSU's linebackers and ND would come out on top in that type of match-up.

 

I think ND is a better team than the other three being debated, but I suppose that's why they play the game, right?

 

With all that said, I don't think any fans would be unhappy if the BCS just lined up and played the top 8 teams in the 4 games. WVU does not belong in a BCS game and if VTech lays a turd against FSU, then neither team deserves a BCS game.

[WHarris1]

Oregon, like its schedule, is a total joke. Which team is worse, Montana or Syracuse? At worst they're equal, but more likely Syracuse would beat them head-to-head. Yet under the current most BCS computer poll SOS systems, playing Montana gives Oregon a large boost over ND, because Montana was 8-4 and Syracuse was 1-10.

I am not positive but I'm pretty sure the BCS eliminated the SOS

[Wedge]

I am not positive but I'm pretty sure the BCS eliminated the SOS

 

The BCS itself did, but the computer polls it employs still use them. Without SOS (and opponents SOS), the computers really have nothing to go by since Margin of Victory (MOV) was banned.

[WHarris1]

The BCS itself did, but the computer polls it employs still use them. Without SOS (and opponents SOS), the computers really have nothing to go by since Margin of Victory (MOV) was banned.

Alright I gotcha.

[Wedge]

Alright I gotcha.

 

The most respected computer polls is the one by Sagarin. Elo-chess is the component that uses only winning and losing and no margin of victory. Sagarin also employs a margin of victory metric in his Pure Points metric, but has had that element removed to comply with the latest BCS restrictions.

 

Sagarin uses Bayesian weights on victories in calculating its rankings. These weights are initially based on coaches/AP rankings, but once all the teams are connected (i.e. you can trace a game from Team A to Team B) these weightings are replaced with ones calculated by the computer poll through the use of a Bayesian network. It's pretty neat stuff, trust me.

 

I can't locate the Pure Points rankings for 2005 (likely Sagarin has not released them), but in Elo Chess of note is the following:

 

1 Texas

2 Southern California

3 Penn State

4 Ohio State

5 Virginia Tech

6 Notre Dame

7 Oregon

8 Michigan

9 Miami-Florida

10 West Virginia

11 LSU

12 Texas Tech

13 Auburn

 

I wonder what Pure Points looks like. Pure Points tends to be a better predictor of head-to-head match-ups than Elo Chess.

[Wedge]

OK, I found the Pure Points rankings:

 

Texas

USC

OSU

VTech

PSU

ND

Michigan

Louisville

Miami-FL

West Virginia

Oregon

Texas Tech

Fresno St

Auburn

LSU

 

It's interesting to see just how far down that list Auburn and LSU are when you consider MOV. Also consider that this ranking is considered much better than Elo-chess in terms of predicted head-to-head on a neutral field.

[Rex Hudler]

Auburn beat two top 10 teams at the end of the season, Alabama and @ Georgia, how about ND?

 

 

Alabama is not that good. The past two games have exposed that. Notre Dame would kill Alabama. I really think you could make an argument for Oregon, for Notre Dame, for Ohio State and for Auburn. No matter how you slice it, there are no clear cut winners or losers in that group.

 

Obviously those that don't like Notre Dame will bark that they don't belong. But I don't see any big differences amongst the four. I'd like to think I can be as objective as anyone in this situation.

 

-- My ex-roommate and good friend is an Oregon grad and has had me watching Oregon games a lot over the past 5-6 years. I don't call myself a Duck fan, but I quietly hope they do well each year.

-- While I have always liked Michigan in football, I am a huge Big Ten fan living in the South, so I have no problem rooting for Ohio St. except for when it directly affects Michigan. I always root for the Big Ten in bowl games.

-- Growing up in Indiana, despite beng more of a Big Ten fan, I have always quietly admired Notre Dame. I consider myself a lukewarm ND fan, but have really enjoyed their resurgence under Charlie Weis this year.

-- Living in Alabama, I hear about Auburn on a daily basis. I have grown to have a good level of respect for their program and enjoy watching them play. I do think they are playing very well right now, but that opening game loss to GA Tech is really killing them.

 

So in essence I have at least a little bit of dog in the hunt for all four teams. Looking objectively, I just can't see a huge difference between any of them.

[Rex Hudler]

 

 

The SEC is DEFINITELY down this year. No question about it.

[WHarris1]

The SEC is DEFINITELY down this year.  No question about it.

Down for it's own standards but.

 

LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia are all top 15-20

Florida and SC are 20-30ish

[Rex Hudler]

erm.. shall we look at Auburns schedule?  They beat 4 teams with winning records, compared to 3 wins over winning teams by ND, and two top 10 teams, compared to 1, overranked top 10 team win by ND. 

 

The three teams with a winning record that ND beat? Michigan, BYU and Navy. 

The four teams with a winning record Auburn beat? Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.

 

Western Kentucky is Division I-AA. South Carolina while playing now, was terrible when Auburn played them. Alabama is NOT that good. Auburn completely overmatched them.

 

Auburn, while a very good team, has one real good win (Georgia) and a good win (Alabama).

 

You can't give credit to Auburn for beating up a SC team that was playing crappy, yet not give Michigan State any credit for beating Notre Dame when it was playing very well. Michigan State fell apart after losing to Michigan. I don't know why, but they were definitely playing very well when they beat ND.

 

Lastly, one of the biggest things Notre Dame has going for it is that it has a National audience and will draw ratings. Auburn and Oregon are definitely more regional teams. Plus, watch a Notre Dame game. They are an unbelievably exciting team to watch!

[Rex Hudler]

Down for it's own standards but.

 

LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia are all top 15-20

Florida and SC are 20-30ish

 

Which means they are about the same as the other power conferences.

 

I'm still not convinced LSU is as good as their ranking, but that team has been through a lot and has persevered. In reality, they should be undefeated right now, causing everyone to be in an uproar about the BCS.

[Wedge]

Down for it's own standards but.

 

LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia are all top 15-20

Florida and SC are 20-30ish

 

I'd say that's exactly right, then. There's several good teams in the conference, but no really elite team. When I've watched PSU or OSU this year, they've definitely stood out much more than anybody from the SEC.

 

The SEC is overrated in the sense that since the four top teams are all about equal and there is no real conference elite, that overall it's the best conference. Heck, if you played the top 5 or 6 from the SEC against any other conference's top 5 or 6, the SEC probably does very well except for the Big 10. That said, I just don't see a representative from the SEC stacking up well with any of the elite teams. However, they'll probably win their BCS game since it'll be the Sugar Bowl against WVU.

[WHarris1]

I'd say that's exactly right, then. There's several good teams in the conference, but no really elite team. When I've watched PSU or OSU this year, they've definitely stood out much more than anybody from the SEC.

 

The SEC is overrated in the sense that since the four top teams are all about equal and there is no real conference elite, that overall it's the best conference. Heck, if you played the top 5 or 6 from the SEC against any other conference's top 5 or 6, the SEC probably does very well except for the Big 10. That said, I just don't see a representative from the SEC stacking up well with any of the elite teams. However, they'll probably win their BCS game since it'll be the Sugar Bowl against WVU.

IMO, LSU is pretty damn elite. Maybe not in the Texas/USC class but they are good.

I would agree with you though, while lacking elite teams, the SEC is pretty damn deep 1-6 who are all top 30.

[Rex Hudler]

IMO, LSU is pretty damn elite.  Maybe not in the Texas/USC class but they are good.

I would agree with you though, while lacking elite teams, the SEC is pretty damn deep 1-6 who are all top 30.

 

How many SEC games have you watched this year? I mean actually sat down and watched the whole game? How many in previous years so you will have a point of comparison?

 

The teams in the SEC are not as good as they have been in the past. Trust me, I live this s*** down here.

[WHarris1]

How many SEC games have you watched this year?  I mean actually sat down and watched the whole game?  How many in previous years so you will have a point of comparison?

 

The teams in the SEC are not as good as they have been in the past.  Trust me, I live this s*** down here.

I am not even trying to act like I watch tons and tons of SEC games.

 

That doesn't negate my opinion that the SEC is not an overrated conference. How the SEC compares to recent years has nothing to do with if they are overrated this year or not.

Edited November 27, 2005 by WHarris1

[Chisoxfn]

Alabama is not that good.  The past two games have exposed that.  Notre Dame would kill Alabama.  I really think you could make an argument for Oregon, for Notre Dame, for Ohio State and for Auburn.  No matter how you slice it, there are no clear cut winners or losers in that group. 

 

Obviously those that don't like Notre Dame will bark that they don't belong.  But I don't see any big differences amongst the four.  I'd like to think I can be as objective as anyone in this situation. 

 

-- My ex-roommate and good friend is an Oregon grad and has had me watching Oregon games a lot over the past 5-6 years.  I don't call myself a Duck fan, but I quietly hope they do well each year.

-- While I have always liked Michigan in football, I am a huge Big Ten fan living in the South, so I have no problem rooting for Ohio St. except for when it directly affects Michigan.  I always root for the Big Ten in bowl games.

-- Growing up in Indiana, despite beng more of a Big Ten fan, I have always quietly admired Notre Dame.  I consider myself a lukewarm ND fan, but have really enjoyed their resurgence under Charlie Weis this year.

-- Living in Alabama, I hear about Auburn on a daily basis.  I have grown to have a good level of respect for their program and enjoy watching them play.  I do think they are playing very well right now, but that opening game loss to GA Tech is really killing them. 

 

So in essence I have at least a little bit of dog in the hunt for all four teams.  Looking objectively, I just can't see a huge difference between any of them.

I think the bigger problem (and you as well as others have mentioned it) are not the at-large bids, its the guaranteed bids to certain conference winners, like the West Virginia's of the world and possibly FSU's this year.

 

There should be a rule that its a guarantee unless the team isn't ranked in the top 10 or unless the team has more than 2 losses (some sort of items that cancel out the opportunities of less than superior teams getting the guaranteed bid).

[Chisoxfn]

Which means they are about the same as the other power conferences. 

 

I'm still not convinced LSU is as good as their ranking, but that team has been through a lot and has persevered.  In reality, they should be undefeated right now, causing everyone to be in an uproar about the BCS.

Well I still think they should have lost that ASU game to start the season.

[Rex Hudler]

Well I still think they should have lost that ASU game to start the season.

 

Very true, they were lucky to get out of there with a win.

 

LSU is very talented and JaMarcus Russell has some amazing skills. The guy is big, yet pretty mobile (and he's from Mobile!) and can throw the ball half a mile without much effort. But he is certainly not as polished as some other QB's at this point.

 

LSU and Auburn are the two SEC teams that have enough strength on both offense and defense to beat you. I really think Auburn is better than LSU, but they didn't get it done on the field, so Auburn has nothing to complain about.

 

Alabama and Georgia are very good defensively, but lack the offensive firepower. Georgia is better offensively with a healthy DJ Shockley, but they still aren't as good as they have been the past few years.

 

Florida, while impressive yesterday has been pretty lucky this year. They got Georgia without Shockley and barely beat them. Tennessee had a bown year. Florida was a s***ty "celebration" penalty from having to defend a two-point conversion in a win/lose situation against Vanderbilt.

[The Bones]

Name me the 4 teams in the Big 10 that they would lose to.

 

I'm a little late and this has already been argued but I do not think ND would be 9-2 and be a BCS team if they were in the Big Ten. The only question is if they would be 8-3 or 7-4.

 

W vs. Illinois-easy win for ND

W vs. Indiana-another easy win for ND

? vs. Iowa-could go either way if it's at Iowa, at ND and the Irish win

W vs. Michigan

L vs. Michigan State

W vs. Minnesota-ND is obviously better but Minn could pull off an upset as they showed against Michigan

W vs. Northwestern-ND would probably win but it wouldn't be easy

L vs. Ohio State-I think Ohio State is the third best team in the country

L vs. Penn State-I hope this is the BCS game so we can have an answer to this question, I don't know why everyone thinks ND could handle them so easily, this would be a great game

W vs. Purdue

W vs. Wisconsin-against Iowa, Minn, NU, and Wisc I think ND would come away with 1 loss, most likely to Iowa

 

So it would depend on what there schedule looks like whether their record is 8-3 or 7-4. Either way they wouldn't be a BCS team. Only easy wins on the schedule are Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue. With tougher competition week in and week out ND would be more vulnerable to a loss than when they play teams like Pitt, Wash, BYU, Cuse, Navy, and Stanford.

[Felix]

Name me the 4 teams in the Big 10 that they would lose to.

If they went to Happy Valley, PSU would shut them down, as they did to Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, or any other team that came there this year. If they played PSU at Notre Dame, PSU would still likely win.

They would lose to Ohio State and Northwestern (amazing offense, and with ND not having that great a defense, it would likely spell trouble), while Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota would give them trouble, and possibly take a game or two.

 

Just my thoughts though.

[Wedge]

If they went to Happy Valley, PSU would shut them down, as they did to Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, or any other team that came there this year.  If they played PSU at Notre Dame, PSU would still likely win.

They would lose to Ohio State and Northwestern (amazing offense, and with ND not having that great a defense, it would likely spell trouble), while Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota would give them trouble, and possibly take a game or two.

 

Just my thoughts though.

 

ND's schedule was really funky this year. It featured 3 preseason Top-4 teams and a host of other preseason ranked teams (such as Pitt and Purdue) and an MSU team that really peaked for the ND game. Other than USC, almost every team on ND's schedule fell well short of expectations.

 

In a few cases, such as when ND shelacked Purdue and Pitt, it really sent some teams into a tailspin they never recovered from. In Purdue's case, I think the ND loss really lost the team for Tiller (one of his underclassmen indicated he was leaving for the NFL Draft via fax) and the Pitt loss really deflated the program (there was a lot of hype coming into the season over the new favorite-son alumni coach in Wanny, but the game really showed how clueless he was). In Pitt's case, losing to ND probably caused a hangover that led to the loss to Ohio. In Purdue's case, it was a full-out tail-spin that took a month to recover from. Even though MSU won, they suffered a similar effect. If you saw them play at ND stadium that day, they played at such a level that they seriously looked like they could contend for a national title. After beating ND, they almost completely lost their intensity and focus and never again came close to looking like that team that beat ND. Part of that had to do with the OSU loss when Smith lost part of his team by throwing them under the bus. Hell, even Michigan had a meltdown (certainly in the fanbase) when they lost to ND.

 

ND's schedule didn't end up nearly as tough as it started out, but I think it's still as ambitious a national schedule as you can play. Next year's schedule is pretty ambitious with games against UM, PSU, USC, GTech, and UCLA. These are all teams that have done very well this year and should all finish in the top 15. There are some other good teams on that schedule like Purdue, Pitt, and Stanford that should be on the rise after disappointing (but somewhat promising) 2005 seasons.

 

ND's 2005 schedule was probably a wash with a typical Big 10 schedule.

 

Let's compare ND and UM's 2006 schedules:

 

ND:

@ Georgia Tech

PENN STATE

MICHIGAN

@ Michigan St.

PURDUE

STANFORD

UCLA

@ Navy (Baltimore)

NORTH CAROLINA

@ Air Force

ARMY

@ Southern Cal

 

Michigan:

BALL STATE

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

@ Notre Dame

WISCONSIN

@ Minnesota

MICHIGAN STATE

@ Penn State

IOWA

NORTHWESTERN

@ Indiana

@ Ohio State

 

Common opponents:

Michigan State

Penn State

 

Michigan might have a very slight edge here, but that's debatable. If PSU is a tough team, then it is a slight edge for ND to play PSU at ND. If PSU is crappy like the last few years again, I think it's a wash.

 

I'm also obviously throwing out ND vs. Michigan.

 

I'll break down the list further:

 

ND Non-BCS opponents

@ Navy

ARMY

@ Air Force

 

UM Non-BCS opponents

BALL STATE

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

@ Indiana (explanation, I know they're Big 10)

 

all right, so I took out the Non-BCS opponents and both play some patsies. I think @ Navy and @ Indiana is roughly equal, despite Indiana being a BCS team.

 

 

ND BCS opponents

@ Georgia Tech

PURDUE

STANFORD

UCLA

NORTH CAROLINA

@ Southern Cal

 

UM BCS opponents

WISCONSIN

@ Minnesota

IOWA

NORTHWESTERN

@ Ohio State

 

The big season ending road games are both toughies against big rivals. These will be both teams' most difficult opponents. USC has been a dynasty lately, so if it's not a push, it has to be an edge to ND.

 

The next best team for ND is either @ GTech or UCLA, where UM next best are WISC or IOWA. Both are home games for UM and I think GTech and UCLA are both better teams than WISC and IOWA. I think that's a pretty clear edge to ND.

 

Purdue and @ Minnesota are a pretty equal, so either a push or a slight edge to UM.

 

I think Stanford and Northwestern are pretty similar teams, although NU graduates its QB and Stanford will have a pretty good one coming back, push or slight edge to ND.

 

ND plays a 12th game in UNC. A patsy, but another chance for someone to get hurt.

 

In conclusion, I think that ND's 2006 schedule is very favorable to a typical Big 10 schedule on paper. I think that ND has some more challenges in that they play teams from a variety of conferences, thus they have to handle many different styles of play. For a counter example, examine an SEC team from this season. They all follow the same formula and would probably not handle out of conference games terribly well.