Nightengale's Griffey/ Sox update

[fathom]

The Sox have shown a history where they directly link their payroll to their attendance revenues.  Just from an amatuer observation based on this years attendance trends, we should be looking at a payroll of at least $90 million next year.  If the Sox can somehow make it to, or win, the World Series, we should be around $100 million.

 

That would be quite the increase in payroll. As much as I would love it, I highly doubt it would get that high. I'd be surprised if we were at 80 million next season.

[fathom]

Hes completely worthless to other teams.  He's old, a non-prospect and was s***ty in MLB action.

 

And Quick, I didnt know you were still around?

 

Milkman was being sarcastic!

[RockRaines]

Milkman was being sarcastic!

ah ha, a little groggy today.

[Milkman delivers]

Milkman was being sarcastic!

 

Thanks for covering for me. Just a little mental lapse, most likely. I think it's pretty obvious that I'm sarcastic most of the time.

[RockRaines]

Yeah dude, I was way off. I guess my mind is elsewhere...like tonights awesome sports night followed by tomorrows arlington million.

[nitetrain8601]

Some people also need to take into account the money Griffey would make for this team which would help pay for his contract. Griffey is the type of guy people would come out to the ballpark just to see. He's one of those rockstar baseball players without the rockstar mentality. Him alone would help attendance. His jersey sales would be off the charts.

 

Money should not be a problem in getting him here.

[fathom]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr. I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

[nitetrain8601]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr.  I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

 

That's true.

 

[SpringfieldFan]

Because Chris Young is a superstar, or going to be a superstar Right? Just like Borchard or Crede. Right?  Chris young could get hit by a car tommorrow. THe Sox should not pass up an opportunity to get an elite player while they are positioned for the post season. This guy will put us over the top and the lineup will scare opponents in the playoffs a hell of alot more than it does today. we need left handed bats against the Angels, Redsox and Yankees. Expecially the Angels, I don't think they have a left hander worth a damn in the bullpen. Make the trade now. Please

 

Agreed. If you want to talk "ceiling", you can give Young the ultimate benefit of the doubt and say he could be HOF. Still, his ceiling is no higher then Griffey's, and Griffey has reached it is at that level now, whereas Young may never reach it. Assuming Young does pan out, the only possible tradeoff is service time, but of course, it only takes one year to win a championship.

 

SFF

[southsider2k5]

That would be quite the increase in payroll.  As much as I would love it, I highly doubt it would get that high.  I'd be surprised if we were at 80 million next season.

 

The Sox had an increase of $10 million in payroll with a flat attendance level from 2003 to 2004, but with the just under 20% price increase of tickets figured in, we got just less than a 20% increase in payroll (65mil to 75mil). If you go back for the last few years, the profit level of the team one year, is almost exactly $ for $, what the payroll increase is for the next season. (if you want to test my hypothsis, go back and look at the Forbes reports from the preceding years, and correlate those with the total payroll figures) If we go from just under 2 million fans to 2.4 million fans, even without factoring in the price increases, we are looking at a 20% increase in attendance. A 20% increase in payroll would be about $15 million, which would bump us from 75mil to 90mil. A deep run into the playoffs would also have the effect of giving a huge bump in the season ticket base, which might inspire the team to raise the budget by more than their realized revenue increases.

[Milkman delivers]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr.  I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

 

Maybe they heard the collective "WHAT THE f***?!" from the Reds fanbase when they heard they could've traded Griffey and didn't?

[S720]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr.  I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

 

Why? Why? Why? Must you build my HOPE up so high that I will feel tremendously hopeless and excrutiatingly painful when KGJ is being claimed by some other team(s)!

[fathom]

Maybe they heard the collective "WHAT THE f***?!" from the Reds fanbase when they heard they could've traded Griffey and didn't?

 

With the way Griffey has played this year, I'm not so sure they're so eager to get rid of him. If I was the Reds GM, there's not a chance in hell I'd trade Griffey unless you got a starting pitcher back in return. I actually think there's a better chance of the Sox trading Contreras and prospects for Griffey in the offseason.

[Harry Chappas]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr.  I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

 

If I am the Reds owner and the GM says we are getting Chris Young and Rogo... oh and we are paying $4M a year to get rid of Griffey, I as the owner may say right now. Hell no. Then as a week or so goes buy and more diliberations go by the owner realizes maybe this is a good idea.

 

The thing is the Reds owner really has nothing to lose by nixing the original deal, they are not in the hunt and can trade him in the offseason. Now after a couple of weeks he may be convinced that this is in the Reds best offer.

 

My thought is JR is now involved and future money and what not is the issue. Also there does not seem to be a fan backlash in Cinncy over the idea of trading him. Another ownership concern.

[Kyyle23]

This trade will likely all revert back to whether or not the Reds ownership wants to trade Griffey Jr.  I'm not sure why everyone thinks they'll change their mind about 2 weeks after saying no to the trade the first time.

 

I think this all hinges on the ownership getting together and deciding on the future of the Cincinatti Reds as a team. After these past 4 year with Griffey on the DL more than off of it, and consecutive losing years, they should realize that they should get rid of Griffey when the value for him is at the highest. The Sox arent in a desperation mode because of their current record, but everyone knows what Griffey could mean to this lineup. I dont think the Reds get much of a better deal in the off-season for Griffey, mostly because next year he will be a year older. Griffey obviously isnt putting butts in the stands, and the Reds arent challenging for a Wild Card. The ownership just needs to sit down and decide what players they are going to designate as their core rebuilding players(and i use the term rebuilding loosely, they have been in neutral for 4 years now), and get maximum value for the players who arent core players.

 

I would really like to hear the reasoning why Lindner nixed the deal in the first place.

[beck72]

beck why must the payroll be the same next year, why won't payroll be more next year? Makes sense, we will draw 2.3 million fans this year plus playoff revenue. I think we will add to payroll not keep it the same.

I was saying the payroll would increase, and that trading guys ala Lee and not resigning Maggs wouldn't really be needed.

[beck72]

The Sox have shown a history where they directly link their payroll to their attendance revenues.  Just from an amatuer observation based on this years attendance trends, we should be looking at a payroll of at least $90 million next year.  If the Sox can somehow make it to, or win, the World Series, we should be around $100 million.

Esp with the sox probably locking up guys like AJ, Garland and crede, payroll should increase.

[fathom]

I would really like to hear the reasoning why Lindner nixed the deal in the first place.

 

Rumor is that Lindner is looking to sell the team, and he believes the team's value diminishes by getting rid of Griffey Jr.

[fathom]

Esp with the sox probably locking up guys like AJ, Garland and crede, payroll should increase.

 

I don't think Sox will lock up Crede to a multi-year deal. Also, I fully anticipate the Sox trying to trade Contreras and Marte this offseason.

[southsider2k5]

Esp with the sox probably locking up guys like AJ, Garland and crede, payroll should increase.

 

We will also be losing at least a chunk of Frank's salary, if not all of Frank and/or Konerko's salaries.

[nitetrain8601]

I don't think Sox will lock up Crede to a multi-year deal.  Also, I fully anticipate the Sox trying to trade Contreras and Marte this offseason.

 

Maybe Marte, but I don't see them trading Count. I don't think BMac will be ready next year. I think they'll just let Count and El Duque ride out their current contracts and then when they're up, BMac will at least take Duque's spot.

[fathom]

Maybe Marte, but I don't see them trading Count. I don't think BMac will be ready next year. I think they'll just let Count and El Duque ride out their current contracts and then when they're up, BMac will at least take Duque's spot.

 

Considering that we were offering Contreras to any and all takers before the trade deadline, and Ozzie's preference of Duque over Contreras....I think it's very likely we try to trade him in the offseason. He's going to be making a lot of money next season, and with only one year left on his deal, some teams around the league might be very interested in trading for him and hoping for the best.

[RockRaines]

I don't think Sox will lock up Crede to a multi-year deal.  Also, I fully anticipate the Sox trying to trade Contreras and Marte this offseason.

Being that the Count is probably to most talented pitcher in the rotation, I dont think they will unload him. El Duque will go first. We have to lock Crede up because we have nothing in our minor league system remotely as good as Crede. And dont give me that Josh Fields crap, he isnt ready and his glove isnt half of what Crede's was at that age.

[nitetrain8601]

Considering that we were offering Contreras to any and all takers before the trade deadline, and Ozzie's preference of Duque over Contreras....I think it's very likely we try to trade him in the offseason.  He's going to be making a lot of money next season, and with only one year left on his deal, some teams around the league might be very interested in trading for him and hoping for the best.

 

I don't remember Contreras being offered to and for anyone. In fact, Contreras wasn't even part of the Burnett trades. Some people speculated he might be in the deal, but when it came down to it, it was Marte and BMac. I've heard of teams wanting Contreras(FLA & SF) but it doesn't mean we put him out there.

[thedoctor]

If I am the Reds owner and the GM says we are getting Chris Young and Rogo... oh and we are paying $4M a year to get rid of Griffey, I as the owner may say right now.  Hell no.  Then as a week or so goes buy and more diliberations go by the owner realizes maybe this is a good idea.

 

The thing is the Reds owner really has nothing to lose by nixing the original deal, they are not in the hunt and can trade him in the offseason.  Now after a couple of weeks he may be convinced that this is in the Reds best offer. 

 

My thought is JR is now involved and future money and what not is the issue.  Also there does not seem to be a fan backlash in Cinncy over the idea of trading him.  Another ownership concern.

 

it does not make sense at all for the reds to keep griffey. he's a luxury item on a team that has a strapped payroll. plus they have more than enough outfield prospects where they could easily fill that spot. this move makes so much sense for them.

 

the problem is, carl lindner is a flocking idiot.