Overrated Stat

[effectivelywild]

So. As a stathead, I'm checking out ESPN.com's poll for the most overrated statistic, and, having moved to Chicago recently and falling for the Pale Hose, wanted to get y'all's opinion on the issue. For offense (ranked by position in ESPN poll at the moment)

 

Home runs

OPS (On-base + slugging)

RBI

Stolen Bases

Batting Average

 

For pitching, the stat that is trusted most is

ERA

Opponents' batting average

K to BB ratio

Wins

 

 

I think it's a worthwhile query

[DBAHO]

Doubles and Triples (for those of you who bash the White Sox offense, you know why).

 

Oh and welcome to Soxtalk.

[WHarris1]

Most overrated pitcher - win

Most overrated hitter - runs scored

[SnB]

So.  As a stathead, I'm checking out ESPN.com's poll for the most overrated statistic, and, having moved to Chicago recently and falling for the Pale Hose, wanted to get y'all's opinion on the issue.  For offense (ranked by position in ESPN poll at the moment)

 

Home runs

OPS (On-base + slugging)

RBI

Stolen Bases

Batting Average

 

For pitching, the stat that is trusted most is

ERA

Opponents' batting average

K to BB ratio

Wins

I think it's a worthwhile query

welcome to soxtalk

 

and if we're limited to those choices

batter: stolen bases

pitcher: wins

[Soxy]

For a pitcher I would go with wins.

 

For battes, I think the most important stat depends on where they fall in the batting order. I look at SB's differnetly for a lead-off hitter than clean-up and RBI's more for the latter than the former. Overall, though, I would go with GBlum and say R for batters, though.

[whitesoxfan101]

Pitcher: wins by far

Hitter: Among those, stolen bases.

 

And to clarify, wins is a stat that, unless your Roger Clemens or one of the greats, reallly depends on run support.

 

And stolen bases isn't terribly overrated, but among those choices it is the least important and most overrated, but i'd put BA as 2nd most overrated, cuz it doesn't indicate how much you actually help your team and get on base.

Edited August 12, 2005 by whitesoxfan101

[Kalapse]

Now way in hell is OPS overrated for batters. The only way it's overrated is by who you're using it for, it's a great tool for judging middle of the order guys who are supposed to get on base and hit for power. It doen't work for leadoff hitters and other role type player such as a #2 hitter (like Iguchi)

 

Most Overrated for hitters: BA

Most Overrated for Pitchers: tie Ks and Ws

[Balta1701]

Pitcher: ERA, because it's incredibly difficult to compare between leagues.

 

Batter: On base percentage, just because it's such a hot stat thanks to people who only pay cursory attention to Moneyball, and walks just don't do as many positive things as hits.

[wsox08]

most overrated stats

for a pitcher= ks.. you dont need strikeouts to be successful aka Buehrle, Garland..

for a hitter= home runs..

[SHAFTR]

Hitters:

Most Important: OPS+

Overated: BA w/ RISP this will suffer due to sacrfices plus with a large sample size over 95% of players will have a BA w/ RISP that will be within a 95% confidence Interval of their BA.

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/009154.php

 

Pitchers:

Most Important: K/9 It's not the tell all obviously but it definitely is the pitching stat that says what Pitcher can do on his own (outside of the defense).

Overated: Wins, obviously

[YASNY]

All stats are useful tools in judging a player's performance, just as all stats are limited. It takes a combination of these stats and your own eyes and knowledge of the game to make a true assessment.

[Cerbaho-WG]

There's a bounty of overrated offensive stats (SLG, OPS, R) but I think OPS takes the cake here. OPS needs to be weighted somehow to give OBP more of an influence on the stat, as an 800 OPS can be great (.400 OBP .400 SLG) or awful (.300 OBP .500 SLG). There have been many reports that say that OBP is 1.2x to 1.4x more valuable than slugging in terms of OPS, and I definitely agree.

[DBAHO]

There's a bounty of overrated offensive stats (SLG, OPS, R) but I think OPS takes the cake here. OPS needs to be weighted somehow to give OBP more of an influence on the stat, as an 800 OPS can be great (.400 OBP .400 SLG) or awful (.300 OBP .500 SLG). There have been many reports that say that OBP is 1.2x to 1.4x more valuable than slugging in terms of OPS, and I definitely agree.

Case in point, Alfonso Soriano has an OPS of .864. Lyle Overbay has an OPS of .843. The thing is Soriano has an OBP of .324 and a SLG of .540, while Overbay has an OBP of .374 and a SLG of .469.

 

Even though Soriano plays in a position where it's harder to find good players, everyone hear would probably take Overbay every time.

[Kalapse]

Case in point, Alfonso Soriano has an OPS of .864. Lyle Overbay has an OPS of .843. The thing is Soriano has an OBP of .324 and a SLG of .540, while Overbay has an OBP of .374 and a SLG of .469.

 

Even though Soriano plays in a position where it's harder to find good players, everyone hear would probably take Overbay every time.

I'd put Overbay at 2B, he'd play better defensively than Soriano.

[Rowand44]

All stats are useful tools in judging a player's performance, just as all stats are limited.  It takes a combination of these stats and your own eyes and knowledge of the game to make a true assessment.

Completely agreed here.

[Rowand44]

Pitchers:

Most Important:  K/9  It's not the tell all obviously but it definitely is the pitching stat that says what Pitcher can do on his own (outside of the defense).

 

I've never disagreed with an opinion as much as I do here.

 

EDIT: SHAFTR, please don't take this as me trying to be an ass, I respect your opinion just I completely disagree with it.

Edited August 12, 2005 by Rowand44

[Steve9347]

I've never disagreed with an opinion as much as I do here.

 

EDIT: SHAFTR, please don't take this as me trying to be an ass, I respect your opinion just I completely disagree with it.

 

I concur, sir.

[SHAFTR]

I've never disagreed with an opinion as much as I do here.

 

EDIT: SHAFTR, please don't take this as me trying to be an ass, I respect your opinion just I completely disagree with it.

 

I'll attempt to explain...

 

Lets say a young prospect has a k/9 of 10 and lets say that # is conistent through his career. This means that out of 27 outs in a game, he is able to get 10 on his own. This takes park effects, defense, etc out of the equation. It's really the only stat that only concentrates on batter vs pitcher.

 

Furthemore, Bill James did a study on starting pitchers and found that pitchers who strike more guys out last longer in the league. Pitchers that strike out 6 per 9 will have longer careers than pitchers who strike out 5 per 9, and in fact, if you study it closely enough, pitchers who stike out 5.8 per 9 innings will last longer as a group than pitchers who strike out 5.7 per 9 innings. The relationship is that strong.

 

Obviously there are exceptions to this rule, but I still think it's very valuable (especially for FA, Trades & Prospects).

 

I understand you disagree, I'd like to know why.

[Rowand44]

I'll attempt to explain...

 

Lets say a young prospect has a k/9 of 10 and lets say that # is conistent through his career.  This means that out of 27 outs in a game, he is able to get 10 on his own.  This takes park effects, defense, etc out of the equation.  It's really the only stat that only concentrates on batter vs pitcher.

 

Furthemore, Bill James did a study on starting pitchers and found that pitchers who strike more guys out last longer in the league.  Pitchers that strike out 6 per 9 will have longer careers than pitchers who strike out 5 per 9, and in fact, if you study it closely enough, pitchers who stike out 5.8 per 9 innings will last longer as a group than pitchers who strike out 5.7 per 9 innings. The relationship is that strong.

 

Obviously there are exceptions to this rule, but I still think it's very valuable (especially for FA, Trades & Prospects).

 

I understand you disagree, I'd like to know why.

Very good points. For me striking guys has a difference of importance for each pitcher and what kind of pitcher they are. For instance, for a sinkerball pitcher imo it's better when they aren't striking out a lot of guys, most of the time a sinkerballer is striking out a lot of guys it means that they're over throwing and more prone to give up a lot of hits. Also there is always those soft tossers who just know how to pitch, won't strike out a lot of guys but know how to get outs. You don't have to strike a lot of guys out to be a good pitcher and I know you'll agree with that so imo it just can't be the most important stat for a pitcher. Agree to disagree.

[effectivelywild]

Very good points.  For me striking guys has a difference of importance for each pitcher and what kind of pitcher they are.  For instance, for a sinkerball pitcher imo it's better when they aren't striking out a lot of guys, most of the time a sinkerballer is striking out a lot of guys it means that they're over throwing and more prone to give up a lot of hits.  Also there is always those soft tossers who just know how to pitch, won't strike out a lot of guys but know how to get outs.  You don't have to strike a lot of guys out to be a good pitcher and I know you'll agree with that so imo it just can't be the most important stat for a pitcher.  Agree to disagree.

 

Which is why when looking at a pitcher overall, it helps to look at three stats: K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. The idea is, these three in conjunction can give you an overall look at different aspects of a pitcher that are not affected by his teammates. K/9 is sort of a quick measure of his "stuff", BB/9 lets you examine their control (Also, someone with a high BB rate is likely to have to throw more hittable pitches in hitter's counts), and HR/9 is a rough way of looking at the quality of the contact that they induce from the batter. So while a sinkerballer or a soft tosser may not get a lot of strikeouts, if they can keep the number of walks and HR's down, they should be pretty effective.

[the People's Champ]

QUOTE(SHAFTR @ Aug 12, 2005 -> 01:38 AM)

Hitters:

Most Important:  OPS+

Overated:  BA w/ RISP  this will suffer due to sacrfices plus with a large sample size over 95% of players will have a BA w/ RISP that will be within a 95% confidence Interval of their BA.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

To say the BA w/RISP will suffer due to sacrifices makes no sense, considering a sacrifice doesn't count as an AB

[WHarris1]

Strikeouts=highly overrated

 

I'm probably in the minority.

[YASNY]

To say the BA w/RISP will suffer due to sacrifices makes no sense,  considering a sacrifice doesn't count as an AB

 

But ... many times a hitter will just make sure he puts a ball in play rather than taking a good cut to get a base hit. It depends on the situation. Those type of "sacrifices" are counted as an AB, as opposed to sac bunt.