TLAK Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 I have seen many blogs and comments about how lucky the White Sox have been this year. Some folks just can’t believe the success of a team that has no Zito, Johnson or Schilling to blather over. We are deep enough into the season to use the classic measurement of luck, Bill James’s Pythagorean formula: Runs Scored^1.83/Runs Scored^1.83+Runs Allowed^1.83. The difference in team record and what the formula predicts is attibuted to luck. The formula is very accurate, over the 2,092 MLB team seasons played since 1901 the average difference between the formula and the actual results is .0002 per season. The largest differences ever recorded are +.090 by the 1905 Tigers and - .089 by the 1993 Mets. About 14 games at the maximum. These are the results from this morning’s standings, P = Pythagorean and A = Actual: Team----------- RS_ RA_ PW PL PPct AW AL APct Diff Chicago-------- 550 452 67 47 .588 74 40 .649 +.061 Boston--------- 653 569 64 50 .561 67 47 .588 +.026 Baltimore------ 537 567 55 60 .470 56 59 .487 +.017 New York------- 617 573 61 53 .526 62 52 .544 +.018 Oakland-------- 562 481 66 49 .565 66 49 .574 +.009 Los Angeles---- 543 459 66 49 .574 66 49 .574 0.000 Tampa Bay------ 541 696 45 71 .379 44 72 .379 0.000 Cleveland------ 545 487 64 52 .543 63 53 .543 0.000 Minnesota------ 503 475 61 54 .522 59 56 .513 -.009 Kansas City---- 488 668 41 73 .360 38 76 .333 -.026 Texas---------- 639 619 59 56 .513 56 59 .487 -.026 Detroit-------- 520 526 56 58 .491 53 61 .465 -.026 Seattle-------- 492 527 53 61 .465 49 65 .430 -.035 Toronto-------- 572 489 66 49 .565 60 55 .522 -.043 The White Sox are indeed the luckiest team in the league. But what I rarely hear is the White Sox are also the best team in the league according to the theorem with a .588 PPct. If you discount the ‘luck’ that many pundits attribute to the team, they still project to win 95 games! If they stay as lucky they could hit 105. It’s not impossible to stay lucky all season, last year’s Yankees finished +.076. And good teams do make their own luck, the average 1st place team since 1901 finished with an APct +.013 greater than PPct. The Sox are lucky AND good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnB Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 good teams make their own breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxrd5 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 QUOTE(SnB @ Aug 13, 2005 -> 10:02 AM) good teams make their own breaks. ^^^ Thats probably about all there is to say...yes we are sometimes lucky but more often we are good. This kind of statistical breakdown means just about nothing to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxpranos Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 QUOTE(SnB @ Aug 13, 2005 -> 10:02 AM) good teams make their own breaks. Correct. here's to more solid play on defense and to wake them bats up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzie Montana Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 I think they are both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Vandelay Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 I've often heard the phrase, "It's better to be lucky than good", which is probably true but thankfully for us, we're both! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSoxMatt Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 The White Sox are good, plain and simple, you do not get to 35 (34 now) games over .500 by just being lucky!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beck72 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 Didn't we say the twins were "lucky" more so than they were "good" the last few years?! The sox aren't beating themselves offensively and defensively, ie making errors, not taking advantage of scoring opportunities, etc. They are making other teams beat them--which hasn't happened a lot. Pitching wise the sox are vastly improved--solid both SP and bullpen. The better defense also has helped the sox get out of innings they didn't the last few yrs. And AJ has helped the pitching staff get more aggressive. the best teams find ways to win games that they should really lose. And the sox have had a lot of success in this dep't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitetrain8601 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 Lucky. But we haven't had a World Series Ring here for a while. I don't give a damn about how you get it done, just make sure you get it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev211 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 Were good if we were lucky we woudnt have been this good all year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 I'd say 85% good and 15% luck. You have to be good to have the best record in baseball, but the Sox have had luck, both good and bad luck this season, obviously more good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 The White Sox have indeed lucked their way to 74 wins, they aren't good at all actually, they're actually terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamslam Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 Go to a cubs site then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHarris1 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 QUOTE(jamslam @ Aug 13, 2005 -> 05:05 PM) Go to a cubs site then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 13, 2005 Share Posted August 13, 2005 Isn't our pitching atop all of baseball? We've got very good pitching. Our lineup has been good enough though it should not strike fear in the hearts of anybody. We're a good team. We're not lucky. WE're good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MurcieOne Posted August 14, 2005 Share Posted August 14, 2005 Every team that wins the WS.... has a little bit of luck along the way. get to the playoffs and who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNS-TV44 Posted August 15, 2005 Share Posted August 15, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(jamslam @ Aug 13, 2005 -> 05:05 PM) Go to a cubs site then Ooooh,he got serrrrrrved!!! Hey,I don't care.As long as the win column gets fatter,lucky or good,I'll take it either way! Edited August 15, 2005 by WSNS-TV44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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