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So you think gas prices suck?


southsider2k5

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My jaw dropped on Sat when a fricking Citgo was up to $2.70.

 

ANy of you people who know about this stuff see any relief in the near future? Are they ever gonna go down or is this just a sign of the times?

 

I should move to Venenzuela!

Edited by Brian
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QUOTE(Brian @ Aug 15, 2005 -> 12:31 PM)
My jaw dropped on Sat when a fricking Citgo was up to $2.70.

 

ANy of you people who know about this stuff see any relief in the near future? Are they ever gonna go down or is this just a sign of the times?

 

Gas will stay here for a while... They might drop off as demand ebbs for the winter, but with the market fundimentals the way that they are, I can't see crude going under $50 a barrel, especially since we are one terrorist attack away from panic.

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QUOTE(Brian @ Aug 15, 2005 -> 10:31 AM)
My jaw dropped on Sat when a fricking Citgo was up to $2.70.

 

ANy of you people who know about this stuff see any relief in the near future? Are they ever gonna go down or is this just a sign of the times?

It's possible that there could be some drop in oil prices in the fall. It's also possible that aliens could attack the earth and conquer it.

 

Right now, there are a number of factors playing into oil prices. First of all, there is probably still a $10-$15 "security" cost being built into oil prices, in the sense that there are enough people out there who feel that a supply disruption somewhere in the Middle East other than Iraq (which is already disrupted) is a real possibility.

 

The only way to get rid of this built-in cost is to find some way to generate real security in the Middle East. Right now, Saudi Arabia's infrastructure is still viewed as at risk. We're threatening Iran. Al Qaeda still has the capability to attack oil infrastructure. And Iraq is a complete disaster area.

 

If some of those threats were to be removed, it might help.

 

But sadly, that is not the real heart of the problem. Remove that, and oil probably still stays in the $50+ range. Why? Because the age of oil has ended.

 

Take a look at this graph from CNN.

 

oil_supply_demand.gif

 

1 thing should be totally obvious to anyone who looks at it: demand has finally outstripped supply.

 

Oil is a very inelastic market. In other words, dramatic increases in prices do surprisingly little to stem demand. If the price of some food at the grocery store went up by a factor of 2.5 over 2 years, you'd probably switch to some other food. But with oil, that can't be done. A finite amount of people still need to get to work. People keep buying Hummers, and they're not cheap to replace. Even if gas prices keep going up, very few people will suddenly start biking everywhere.

 

The reality is this; the world cannot produce oil any faster. A few months ago, the Saudis said they'd try to increase production again and release more barrels of oil; and the oil they released was very heavy, poor quality stuff, not the traditional Saudi light sweet crude that we've been guzzling for so long. Saudi Arabia is pumping as fast as they can. They might be able to squeeze a little bit more out at these prices, but the reality is either their production has peaked or it is very close to peaking, and their production cannot grow fast enough to keep up with demand.

 

On top of that, there really are no new sources to tap. People have not made major finds anywhere in the world in years. The growth of oil supply simply cannot keep up with the growth in demand, and therefore the only thing that can happen is there must be pressure placed on the demand side to stop it from growing. The only way this can happen is throguh increased prices. And since prices have to go up a lot to slow down demand in oil, there's no reason to assume oil won't keep going up. $75 a barrel may not be out of the question in the next few weeks.

 

The fall may see some reprieve, because demand in the U.S. does drop somewhat after the summer is over. A very warm winter might help as well if there were to be one. But make no mistake; the age of cheap oil is over.

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QUOTE(Queen Prawn @ Aug 15, 2005 -> 11:07 AM)
My sister and I were talking about that Saturday morning while gassing up my dad's car.  Neither of us mention gas prices to him or else we hear about the price of gas in Ireland and Europe in general.

The other side of that token of course is that while gas prices are high over there...it's due to taxes. So the governments over there have their people pay higher gas prices, but on the other hand, if they have a constant amount of revenue they need to bring in...they get the money back in those gas prices through lower taxes on other items.

 

Would you pay $4 a gallon in gas prices if the extra dollar meant that you'd get a smaller property tax bill by the same amount?

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QUOTE(Heads22 @ Aug 15, 2005 -> 12:41 PM)
I guess I have an advantage by not taking a car to college and utilizing ISU's bus system.

you'll grow sick of it quickly though.

 

i myself, thought about bringing my car this year, but the $160some parking fee for a semester, along w/ gas, i decided to just sacrifice alot and take the busses.

 

maybe next semester when i get some money coming in.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 15, 2005 -> 01:09 PM)
The other side of that token of course is that while gas prices are high over there...it's due to taxes.  So the governments over there have their people pay higher gas prices, but on the other hand, if they have a constant amount of revenue they need to bring in...they get the money back in those gas prices through lower taxes on other items.

 

Would you pay $4 a gallon in gas prices if the extra dollar meant that you'd get a smaller property tax bill by the same amount?

 

 

My dad talks about that as well.

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