Griffey Rumor

[JUGGERNAUT]

There's one other way we can get BMac, Anderson to the Reds for KGJ but it requires the Reds to put their complete trust in the CWS. The two teams could split the one trade into 2 parts: during ML waiver period & after ML waiver period.

 

The CWS would have to agree to pick up more of KGJ's contract as collateral for what they promise to give in return in talent in Sep.

 

Aug: KGJ + $10M for mlers from the CWS that don't have to clear ML waivers

Sep: $10M + some mlers from the Reds for a pkg of players the Reds want who are not on the CWS playoff roster

 

I believe, that would allow the CWS to complete a trade involving BMac & Anderson for KGJ.

[Kyyle23]

There's one other way we can get BMac, Anderson to the Reds for KGJ but it requires the Reds to put their complete trust in the CWS. The two teams could split the one trade into 2 parts: during ML waiver period & after ML waiver period.

 

The CWS would have to agree to pick up more of KGJ's contract as collateral for what they promise to give in return in talent in Sep.

 

Aug: KGJ + $10M for mlers from the CWS that don't have to clear ML waivers

Sep: $10M + some mlers from the Reds for a pkg of players the Reds want who are not on the CWS playoff roster

 

I believe, that would allow the CWS to complete a trade involving BMac & Anderson for KGJ.

 

Can you just go around the waiver period like that?

 

From what I am understanding, the Reds will get their players after the waiver period, pretty much negating the waiver period overall. Why wouldnt trades like this happen more often?

[JUGGERNAUT]

Can you just go around the waiver period like that?

 

From what I am understanding, the Reds will get their players after the waiver period, pretty much negating the waiver period overall. Why wouldnt trades like this happen more often?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

$$$.

 

You're essentially agreeing on what BMac, & Anderson would mean in $ values to the Reds & applying that to the KGJ trade. The Reds use that added cost as collateral for the CWS to give them the players they want.

 

It might have happened in the past. You would have to look at the Sep transaction logs to see evidence of it.

[Kyyle23]

$$$.

 

You're essentially agreeing on what BMac, & Anderson would mean in $ values to the Reds & applying that to the KGJ trade.  The Reds use that added cost as collateral for the CWS to give them the players they want.

 

It might have happened in the past.  You would have to look at the Sep transaction logs to see evidence of it.

 

I just dont think that you would be able to avoid the waiver deadline like that. It just seems that teams like the Yankees would just get who they want, and say "Yeah, after the waiver deadline I will give you the players you are asking for, but we have to wait."

 

To me it makes the waiver deadline worthless. Whats the point of making it difficult to trade a player in August if you could circumvent the system on an agreement?

 

Maybe I am just understanding it wrong.

[RockRaines]

s***, at this point I would take Piazza, just give me a decent bat for god sakes.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I just dont think that you would be able to avoid the waiver deadline like that.  It just seems that teams like the Yankees would just get who they want, and say "Yeah, after the waiver deadline I will give you the players you are asking for, but we have to wait."

 

To me it makes the waiver deadline worthless. Whats the point of making it difficult to trade a player in August if you could circumvent the system on an agreement?

 

Maybe I am just understanding it wrong.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/schedule...nt_dates_05.jsp

Aug 1: Beginning today through the last day of the championship season, players may be assigned between Major League clubs ONLY after ML Waivers have been secured during the current waiver period.

Oct 2: Official closing of the 2005 championship season

Oct 3: Beginning today, players may be traded between ML clubs without waivers in effect.

 

For certain, they could complete the trade so to speak on Oct 3rd. The question is can they complete it earlier so the Reds could get use of those players in Sept?

 

You have to finalize your post-season roster by Sep 1st. I think that becomes the list of players that still require ML waivers til Oct 2nd. Any one not on that list might be considered an optional assignment. I'm checking on what their status would be.

 

But it's certainly within the rules because it amounts to 2 separate trades in two different periods.

[Kyyle23]

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/schedule...nt_dates_05.jsp

Aug 1: Beginning today through the last day of the championship season, players may be assigned between Major League clubs ONLY after ML Waivers have been secured during the current waiver period.

Oct 2: Official closing of the 2005 championship season

Oct 3: Beginning today, players may be traded between ML clubs without waivers in effect.

 

For certain, they could complete the trade so to speak on Oct 3rd.  The question is can they complete it earlier so the Reds could get use of those players in Sept?

 

You have to finalize your post-season roster by Sep 1st.  I think that becomes the list of players that still require ML waivers til Oct 2nd.  Any one not on that list might be considered an optional assignment.  I'm checking on what their status would be.

 

But it's certainly within the rules because it amounts to 2 separate trades in two different periods.

 

But this is a unique trade scenario you are proposing, which isnt covered on those 3 tenets. If a trade is agreed upon during the waiver period, you would think that even if the players are moved at a later date, that they would be subject to a waiver period, because of the date that the trade was agreed upon.

 

I like your idea, and I wish it would happen, but you would think the MLB CBA would prevent teams from doing such a thing.

[kev211]

But this is a unique trade scenario you are proposing, which isnt covered on those 3 tenets. If a trade is agreed upon during the waiver period, you would think that even if the players are moved at a later date, that they would be subject to a waiver period, because of the date that the trade was agreed upon. 

 

I like your idea, and I wish it would happen, but you would think the MLB CBA would prevent teams from doing such a thing.

They agree to the august trade in august say nothing about the other one the agree to the other one after the waiver period its 2 separate deals preety much that when combined equals out.

[kev211]

You have really thought this out juggernaut

[JUGGERNAUT]

I'm not sure if BMac or Anderson would have to clear waivers.

 

There are two rules that seem to govern them.

 

optional assignment:

a player signed to a minor league contract that is later placed on the 40 man roster. Such a player can be moved from ml-ML for 3 seasons. These represent the players 3 option years. The first option year is spent on the 1st day the player is placed on the 40 man roster. When the option years expire a player signed to a ml contract must clear waivers before being re-assigned.

 

major league waivers:

If the date of assignment is >= 3 yrs after the date the player 1st reported to a ML club during a non-strike year then a team must secure this type of waiver to option a player.

 

Wrt to both BMac & Anderson I am sure they have option years left. So it depends on whether they were signed to ml deals or ML deals. If they were signed to ml deals then I believe they don't have to clear waivers.

Edited August 17, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[JUGGERNAUT]

From the CWS trans logs:

ml-deals: C Raul Casanova, C Chris Widger, INF Pablo Ozuna, INF Jorge Toca, INF Greg Norton, RHP John Stevens, OF Tony Alvarez, INF Ricky Gutierrez,

 

ML-deals: RHP Jon Adkins, RHP Jeff Bajenaru, LHP Neal Cotts, RHP Felix Diaz, RHP Kris Honel, RHP Bobby Jenks, LHP Arnie Munoz, LHP Paulino Reynoso, RHP Matt Smith, RHP Sean Tracey, INF Joe Crede, INF Ross Gload, INF Willie Harris, INF Pedro Lopez, INF Casey Rogowski, INF Wilson Valdez and OF Joe Borchard.

 

Purchased contracts: INF Pablo Ozuna, C Chris Widger, RHP BMac, C Jamie Burke, OF Brian Anderson

 

If you look at the puchased contracts listings for all teams this just seems like a normal procedure when moving players whom signed ml deals to the 25 man roster. I don't think it changes their status as an optional-assignment when they have option years left.

 

With that in mind I think the White Sox can trade BMac & Anderson w/out having to secure ML waivers on them. That makes sense when you consider the purpose of option years.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Was Lindher right in rejecting that proposal? Columnists are now reporting that it's $50M left on KGJ's contract. This makes sense if you assume that the deferred $$ from 00-04 is non-transferrable in the contract. That would leave $26M left in deferred $$ & $23.5M due from 05-08.

 

If it's structured like Thomas' contract was then they will be making payments on the $$ owed from 00-04 before 05-08. It's a backloaded payment scheme where the last payment owed in 2024 is $16.5M. So that means they won't feel the debt burden of the $26M until about 2021. You can weigh that against expected increase in franchise value or investment value to realize the vaue of that debt will depreciate to below 1/2 that value.

 

So in terms of the near future of the team the Reds were getting just $8.5M/3yr in relief. Enough to maybe sign a good setup man. So that equates to KGJ + $15M for mlers & a RP. Who in their right mind would do that deal when KGJ is so HOT at the plate right now?

 

If KW & JR really want to win a championship they've got to pony up some more $$$. Agree to pick up the $15M in exchange for the Reds taking on all of the $26M deferred. Then allow the Reds to choose from a list of players that don't have to clear ML waivers. $23.5M/3yr is still a good deal for KGJ.

Edited August 17, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[Colorado Sox Fan]

Asked Tuesday about his former Seattle teammate, Sox catcher Chris Widger cranked up the karma theory once more.

 

"I know how good he is, I know what he can bring to a team, I know how he can play center field, I know what he can do as a left-handed hitter and he puts a huge threat in the middle of your lineup no matter what team he's on," Widger said. "On the other hand, seriously, when you weigh that against what makes us tick and what makes this team work, it's a tough thing to do. This team is built on team chemistry, it's built on 25 guys playing together, it's built on playing a different kind of baseball than just playing for the home run. WE'RE PROUD TO PLAY FOR THE POPUP WITH RISP.

"I love the guys in this locker room. For him to come over here and take a spot away from one of the guys who have been such a big part of this team — to take away an Aaron Rowand's spot, or a Carl Everett's spot, to watch those guys lose their jobs after what they've done for this team this year — you don't know what that's going to do to your team. YEAH, WE MAY EVEN WIN A GAME, AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO WIN AT HOME. You don't know if that's going to pull you apart, because all of a sudden you're looking at a good friend and a teammate and a great person who now has to sit the bench because you bring over that first ballot Hall of Famer. He may be a better player, he may be a better offensive player, he may play better defensively. But, what does that do to the overall scheme of your team? I don't know."

[JUGGERNAUT]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

To Chris Widger I would reply Timo's gawn. That's the biggest impact in adding KGJ. Jr would play some DH, some OF, & if Ozzie thinks he can even some 1B. It's not any different then when Ozzie was trying to juggle time for Thomas, Timo, Dye, Everett & the rest of the bench. They never had a 4 gm losing streak in that time.

 

Jerry pony up the $23.5M & get this done!

Edited August 17, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[tpezz27]

To Chris Widger I would reply Timo's gawn.  That's the biggest impact in adding KGJ.  Jr would play some DH, some OF, & if Ozzie thinks he can even some 1B.  It's not any different then when Ozzie was trying to juggle time for Thomas, Timo, Dye, Everett & the rest of the bench.  They never had a 4 gm losing streak in that time.

 

Jerry pony up the $23.5M & get this done!

 

 

This is probably why it won't happen. Ozzie can't possibly let Timo go.....He can't even keep him on the bench and out of the leadoff spot!

[JUGGERNAUT]

This is probably why it won't happen. Ozzie can't possibly let Timo go.....He can't even keep him on the bench and out of the leadoff spot!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I still have hope it gets done. It just seems too good a fit not to happen. The worst thing imaginable is if KGJ is traded to another contender. That would be a major PR hit for the White Sox. That can't be allowed to happen.

 

If JR pony's up the $23.5M the numbers all fall into place. Lindher is a numbers guy. Let's assume I'm right & the Reds wouldn't have to pay a dime on the $26M until 2023.

It makes sense if the last payment in 2024 is $16.5M. If Lindher were to invest that $26M such that it made a modest 5% compounded annually it would be worth $49M before 2023.

 

Lindher can make this same argument to new owners. Reporters shouldn't let the Reds COO off the hook. They should ask him if the Reds would have withdrawn KGJ from ML waivers if a team had claimed him. If he says yes, it's not about the $$$. Anything else & it's all about the $$$.

 

As for JR, he shocked the hell out me when he signed Belle that year. It's not impossible.

 

The Reds have the advantage right now. The White Sox are in a 4 gm losing streak & need KGJ desperately. But as the Sep 1st deadline looms the Reds advantage will continue to weaken. After Sep 1st KGJ's trade value plummets substantially. If it's going to happen it probably will be in the nick of time for CWS to add KGJ to the playoff roster.

Edited August 17, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[Steve9347]

This deal will not get done.

[Kyyle23]

This deal will not get done.

 

nice analysis. Did you work all night on that?

[WhiteSox311]

nice analysis.  Did you work all night on that?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Adam G]

nice analysis.  Did you work all night on that?

Sometimes the best answers are the most simple.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Griffey Jr (.290A) was 1/3 today with an RBI (83). 13 days & counting before we have to give up hope.

[daa84]

Griffey Jr (.290A) was 1/3 today with an RBI (83).  13 days & counting before we have to give up hope.

i gave up hope on griffey already....besides WHERE WOULD HE PLAY!? sorry if im beatin that joke to death

[JUGGERNAUT]

Reason to hope:

 

Aug, 2004 STL acquires Larry Walker from COL for mler pitcher Jason Burch & 2 PTBNL (turned out to be two more pitchers).

 

Money wise the 37 yr old Walker was owed $4M in 2004, $12.5M in 2005,

& a $15M option/$1M buyout in 2006.

 

COL picked up $7.5M. Leaving STL on the hook for $10M.

 

If STL was willing to take on $10M for a year & 2 mo's of Walker's services the CWS should be willing to take on $23.5M for 3 years & 1 mo of Griffey Jr's services.

 

I don't think any one would suggest that Griffey Jr is worth any less than Walker was at that time.

 

As for the 3 pitchers involved none of them are listed on COL's ML roster this year. So far the trade's been one sided.

Edited August 18, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[Chisoxfn]

Reason to hope:

 

Aug, 2004 STL acquires Larry Walker from COL for mler pitcher Jason Burch & 2 PTBNL (turned out to be two more pitchers). 

 

Money wise the 37 yr old Walker was owed $4M in 2004, $12.5M in 2005,

& a $15M option/$1M buyout in 2006.

 

COL picked up $7.5M.  Leaving STL on the hook for $10M.

 

If STL was willing to take on $10M for a year & 2 mo's of Walker's services the CWS should be willing to take on $23.5M for 3 years & 1 mo of Griffey Jr's services. 

 

I don't think any one would suggest that Griffey Jr is worth any less than Walker was at that time.

 

As for the 3 pitchers involved none of them are listed on COL's ML roster this year.  So far the trade's been one sided.

If IIRC, a PTBNL can not be a player on the 40 man roster?

[YASNY]

If IIRC, a PTBNL can not be a player on the 40 man roster?

 

I thought that too, but based on Neyer's transaction primer, that's not the case. I wish someone would show me something definitive to shoot that down or confirm it.