Iraqi constitution

[FlaSoxxJim]

ABC News story:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1056288

 

The draft charter is supposed to be submitted tomorrow, but they can amend the interim charter and extend the deadline again without dissolution. Cutting the Sunnis out of the process now is going to either doom whatever charter they come up with (because it will be voted down by at least three provinces in the Oct. 15 referendum), or worse, lead to more insurgent activity and bring the situation still closer to civil war.

 

Allawi and the US did quite a lot to stoke the flames of insurgency by threatening the Sunni into joining the new government or else, reminding them that their refusal to sign on would of course result in an Iraqi army that is essentially all Shia and Kurdish (and all that portends for the Sunnis)

 

Getting Shia, Kurds and Sunnis to buy into the new constitution and goverment is critical to curbing the insurgency and avoiding civil war. American insistence at this stage that they make arbitrary deadlines simply for the sake of appearing to be on track is one of the worst things we can do at this point. Radicalisation of Sunni anti-US resistance and the increased violence between Sunnis and Shias has been in large part (certainly not entirely) a result of American demands that timetables be held sacred and nevermind the details.

 

Federalism, oil wealth distribution, clerical power, women's rights etc., are not just minor details, and how the draft constitution takes these issues on will be the difference between acceptance and rejection in the Oct. referendum and beyond. Since we're looking at 4 more years' of occupation at current levels, we should be willing to be flexible on the timetable to a constitution so that all parties can toggether come up with something workable. If that is possible.

[southsider2k5]

The Sunnis refuse to be a part of anything that doesn't involve them staying in power like they did in the days under Saddam. Back then they had a practical monopoly over all of the power and the resources of the country. Now that it looks like they are going to be at least a minority in the power structure, they have resorted to guerilla warfare on their fellow countrymen, and have refused to be a part of elections and of any constitution that doesn't keep their power.

 

Really there isn't much that is going to change here.

[FlaSoxxJim]

The Sunnis refuse to be a part of anything that doesn't involve them staying in power like they did in the days under Saddam.  Back then they had a practical monopoly over all of the power and the resources of the country.  Now that it looks like they are going to be at least a minority in the power structure, they have resorted to guerilla warfare on their fellow countrymen, and have refused to be a part of elections and of any constitution that doesn't keep their power.

 

Really there isn't much that is going to change here.

The sun has set on power monopoly of the Sunni elite minority to be sure, but none of the Sunni representatives in parliment honestly think they're going to remain in power. They do hope for fair representation in a new Iraq, and they understandably fear retribution once they lose all to the Shia majority. Blame shortsightedness for not thinking there might be some serious issues between the former Sunni power wielders and the Kurds and Shia. Simply letting the chiips fall where they may in the new power balance is just formenting civil war.

 

If we approach Iraq like it is a vaccuum, then it's an understandable strategy to allow the Shia majority to put together a government in which they hold all or most of the cards (the denials of political scholars notwithstanding, sometimes 'democracy' does equate to majority rule). But in the broader view, the dangers of unchecked power in the hands of a religious Shia majority ar eapparent. Simply capitulating to the Shia majority will set the stage for a quick warming in Iraq-Iran relations. They are already in broad discussions about their shared futures, with Iran already urging that one of the first things an established Shia-controlled Iraqi government should do is thanks America and show them the door. It will be something if several years out the new-look Iraq looks less like the Amreican-style democracy we are hoping to introduce and more like their neighbors still on the Axis of Evil list. It's not impossible for us to see the eventual emergence of an Islamist state in Iraq if/when the experiment in democracy fails.

 

That is, unless, our policy becomes to completely equate Islamist Muslim states and terrorism and declare war on them all in the next phase of the GWoT.

[Rex Kickass]

If I'm not mistaken, the big fear is that the Shia will get an autonomous state to the south, the Kurds get one to the north. All the oil money in the country is kept more under the control of each of these areas, leaving the Sunni area - which would not be an autonomous area - to suffer from a lack of funds to develop their infrastructure. Plus, this model would allow for the Shia and Kurds to make rules for the Sunni center that would be "exempt" for autonomous regions that would consist of the rest of the country.

 

At least, that's what I got from a few minutes of NPR this week.

[FlaSoxxJim]

If I'm not mistaken, the big fear is that the Shia will get an autonomous state to the south, the Kurds get one to the north. All the oil money in the country is kept more under the control of each of these areas, leaving the Sunni area - which would not be an autonomous area - to suffer from a lack of funds to develop their infrastructure. Plus, this model would allow for the Shia and Kurds to make rules for the Sunni center that would be "exempt" for autonomous regions that would consist of the rest of the country.

 

At least, that's what I got from a few minutes of NPR this week.

Yep, that seems to be the size of it. Without an oil revenue sharing system that gives the Sunni region of the country some development money they'll have a hard time. As well, they would have to deal with whatever national rules of governance the majority agrees to. It will be hard to find a compromise that they will agree to, but they don't have a whole lot of leverage.