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bighurt4444

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QUOTE(Wong & Owens @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 12:21 PM)
That will be right around Labor Day, unfortunately.

 

You could be right. This team is playing with no swagger whatsoever. Seems like a completely different team than the one we watched before the All Star Break.

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Cleveland is still 9 back in the all-important loss column. They need to pick up roughly 2 games a week for the rest of the season to eclipse the Sox. Certainly doable, but instead of a massive collapse you're talking about a very slow and very painful one.

 

What's going to happen in the first two weeks of September when the tribe plays Minny 6 times and Oakland 3, while the Sox are playing KC 6 times and LA 3? Do you expect the tribe to pick up 4-5 games over that stretch? Hard to picture that.

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The lack of blind optimism in this thread tells me some have finally come to the realization this team is no longer guaranteed to make the playoffs. While most (including myself) believe it's remains a high probability, there exists more doubt now then ever. Braves made up 10 games in the NL Eeast standings in July. It's more than possible to lose 7 more after we've already lost 8.

 

Today's two games are HUGE. There's no other way around it. I'll be very upset for anything less than a split. We lose both today, and Indians win, choke talk will officially begin. It will no longer be a column left for the Tribune or a half page feature in the Sun-Times. We're talking about national exposure to our shrinking division lead. Then we'll see how the team handles itself.

 

Anyone can suggest the difference in the loss column, or how the Indians are due to cool off--but I have to believe if this division lead falls to 5.5 games entering September we're in trouble.

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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 06:16 PM)
Cleveland is still 9 back in the all-important loss column. They need to pick up roughly 2 games a week for the rest of the season to eclipse the Sox. Certainly doable, but instead of a massive collapse you're talking about a very slow and very painful one.

 

What's going to happen in the first two weeks of September when the tribe plays Minny 6 times and Oakland 3, while the Sox are playing KC 6 times and LA 3? Do you expect the tribe to pick up 4-5 games over that stretch? Hard to picture that.

 

Good post. That even makes a pessimist like myself confident.

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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 01:16 PM)
What's going to happen in the first two weeks of September when the tribe plays Minny 6 times and Oakland 3, while the Sox are playing KC 6 times and LA 3?

 

So there is no chance that KC or Anaheim can beat us? We lost 2 of 3 at KC last time we played them.

 

The king of pessimism has spoken

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QUOTE(fathom @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 01:15 PM)
Good post.  That even makes a pessimist like myself confident.

 

Doesn't work for me.

 

Averaging two losses a week can be erased with one losing streak. Pitching can't score runs for our offense, which is more than capable of several three game losing streaks between now and October. Remember there still remains head to head matchup with Cleveland.

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 11:42 AM)
Besides blind optimism, I don't understand how people could think he'll go deep into a game without giving up a ton of runs.

maybe it's that he's allowed more than 2 runs in a start just once since returning to Charlotte.

 

That's a span of 8 starts.

Edited by Gene Honda Civic
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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 07:18 PM)
Doesn't work for me.

 

Averaging two losses a week can be erased with one losing streak. Pitching can't score runs for our offense, which is more than capable of several three game losing streaks between now and October. Remember there still remains head to head matchup with Cleveland.

 

Oh trust me, I still think there's a very solid chance we won't make the playoffs. However, at least there's hope that the Indians won't continue to score 7 runs a game and come back 5 times this month from deficits of 4 or more runs.

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QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 01:21 PM)
maybe it's that he's allowed more than 2 runs in a start just once since returning to Charlotte.

 

There is some proof to go with my optimistic prediction for tonight. Now I have some facts to go with my gut feeling. McCarthy has the stuff to get it done at the big league level. He just hasn't shown us that yet this year (besides the Cubs game). Maybe he went back to Charlotte, got his stuff together, and is ready to step up for this team right when they need him to. That is my thinking going into the game.

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If you would have asked me the probability that the Sox would make the playoffs one month ago, I would have said 99% chance. Today if you asked me the same question, my response would be 85%. I am still pretty confident that this team will be in the postseason.

 

For me that isn't really the issue. Not that the Sox are a lock to make the playoffs, because they are not. But the big issue for me is what will the Sox do once they make the playoffs. Again, if you asked me a month ago, what are the chances that the Sox will win the World Series, I would have said they have a 50% chance to win it all. If you asked me the same question today, I would say the Sox have about a 10% chance of winning the World Series. My confidence in this team winning it all has gone down more than my confidence in this team making the playoffs.

 

I really thought a month ago that this was the year. Unfortunetly, I'm not feeling that way anymore. This team just doesn't have the lineup to carry a team through the playoffs. Unless the pitching staff pitches out of their minds for the entire post season, I see the Sox losing in the second round, maybe even the first. That is the real issue here. The point isn't just making the post season, but doing something special once you are there.

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Our pitching is not the problem. I know everyone loves the declining buerhle stuff, and how this guy is not as good and that guy. Our pitching staff is fine. Buerhle and Garland are guys who dont strike out a lot of guys. They require good defense behind them to be succesful. There are days where they will catch too much of the plate and get hit hard. Garcia and Conteras have the stuff to completely and utterly shut a team down. Outside of Garcia's mental lapses in the first inning and his lack of poise against bad teams, he can shut teams down. El Duque is more like Buerhle and Garland.

 

What this all means is that our offense needs to pick it up. We have lived and died this month on the pitching kicking ass and taking names and hoping to scratch a few runs across the board. In the playoffs our pitching will face some potent offenses. Our pitching is great, but cannot be expected to completely shut down each and every teami n the playoffs. They will give up some runs. Maybe some of these guys get real hot and do shut the other team down. We still need our guys to hit. We need to score runs. Outside of Oakland and the Angels the other pitching staffs should be hittable. But that has been our problem, medicore pitching has shut this team down. With our pitching staff if we were hitting medicore, we would have no problems and would march through the playoffs. But when you can get shut down by a medicore pitcher and waste a great effort by one of our starters it will continue to cause us issues.

 

It would be nice if one of our vets on offense would stand up and call out their own and take a better approach and start to jump start this offense. We have guys who have hit before in the majors, we have guys who can hit for a while. Its time to stand up and just win this damn thing. Lets not string this along. Win the division, rest your players and get ready for the playoffs.

:gosox3: :gosoxretro:

Edited by southsideirish71
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QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 12:18 PM)
So there is no chance that KC or Anaheim can beat us?  We lost 2 of 3 at KC last time we played them.

 

The king of pessimism has spoken

 

Of course there's a chance. Just as the Sox could lose their next nine in a row and the tribe could win 9 in a row and Cleveland would be in first place before the 2nd week in September.

 

I just don't think it's likely, is all. I think losing 10 of 15 played right into the hands of my worst fears, that this lack of offensive production would catch up with the Sox. But I'm gonna stick with the age old saying: Good pitching beats good hitting. And the Sox have better pitching than anyone in the AL.

 

I got BLASTED by people on this board in July when I created a thread to ask a simple question: could a double digit lead make the Sox gun shy about making a trade? Wonder what they'd say now...?

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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 02:37 PM)
Of course there's a chance. Just as the Sox could lose their next nine in a row and the tribe could win 9 in a row and Cleveland would be in first place before the 2nd week in September.

 

I just don't think it's likely, is all. I think losing 10 of 15 played right into the hands of my worst fears, that this lack of offensive production would catch up with the Sox. But I'm gonna stick with the age old saying: Good pitching beats good hitting. And the Sox have better pitching than anyone in the AL.

 

I got BLASTED by people on this board in July when I created a thread to ask a simple question: could a double digit lead make the Sox gun shy about making a trade? Wonder what they'd say now...?

 

The samething we told you before. The Sox were not gun-shy about trying to make a trade. NO ONE made a trade at the deadline because the asking prices were ridiculous. The Sox tried to make a deal but nothing made sense, I would hardly call that "gun shy". I'd call it a good balance of planning for both today and tomorrow.

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QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 07:37 PM)
It would be nice if one of our vets on offense would stand up and call out their own and take a better approach and start to jump start this offense. We have guys who have hit before in the majors, we have guys who can hit for a while.  Its time to stand up and just win this damn thing.  Lets not string this along.  Win the division, rest your players and get ready for the playoffs. 

:gosox3:  :gosoxretro:

 

J. Dye did on Saturday night, as he carried our offense to a victory. Problem was, he didn't play the next game. We need everyone in our offense to pick up their game, as well as our manager. It's not like it's just been one player tanking during this prolonged slump.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 12:39 PM)
  I'd call it a good balance of planning for both today and tomorrow.

 

When I hear KW saying "1917, 1917" I tend to believe that there is no concern for tomorrow. Obviously I don't expect him to dump top prospects for some middle-aged journeyman home run threat. But win it now (dare I say, win or die trying?) seems to be what I hear coming from management. And I think they're right. But I also think if the lead would've been 3-4 games in July you would've seen a more aggressive move on the part of the Sox. That's all. I just found it sort of ironic that there could possibly be a downside to a 12 game lead in July. Not saying there is, just that there could be.

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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 02:46 PM)
When I hear KW saying "1917, 1917" I tend to believe that there is no concern for tomorrow. Obviously I don't expect him to dump top prospects for some middle-aged journeyman home run threat. But win it now (dare I say, win or die trying?) seems to be what I hear coming from management. And I think they're right. But I also think if the lead would've been 3-4 games in July you would've seen a more aggressive move on the part of the Sox. That's all. I just found it sort of ironic that there could possibly be a downside to a 12 game lead in July. Not saying there is, just that there could be.

 

But there wasn't. They were in the midst of potential deals for AJ Burnett/Mike Lowell, Jason Schmidt, Eric Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr, and that is just since the season started. I am just saying the premise of what you are suggesting is faulty. There was no complacency, Kenny Williams has busted his ass all year trying to find that "last piece" to the puzzle. You can bet if people weren't asking for Contreras, Marte, McCarthy and a prospect for any top of the line players, a deal would have been done.

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I want a general feeling of who exactly will be criticized if the Sox collapse or are shut out the first round of the playoffs because of their offensive futility. And please, no little league philosophy of failing to assess blame.

 

I've heard all the same arguments about our lack of midseason moves-- the overzealous sellers demanded too much. Other teams didn't make trades either. It shouldn't matter. I heard similar arguments last (04) season when Williams failed to make important roster upgrades. Either the price was too high for free agents, teams were asking too much in trades, or--my favorite-- the rest of the American League Central didn't make any moves!

 

Point is, the offensive troubles of this team were known far before our recent troubles. Williams failed to address them. It's that simple. He failed. No excuses--it's his f***ing job. Trade every pitching prospect for all I care. Most likely they'll never pan out. Either Sweeney/Young/Anderson were expendable--our outfield will be logjammed for many years.

 

Because I have to attend class I can't elobarate futher. I'm sure I've ruffled the feathers of Williams die-hard fans and will have to defend my position later. Just know, when this season over and we haven't reached the ALCS, Williams will be justly ridiculed for neglecting our offense.

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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QUOTE(bighurt4444 @ Aug 30, 2005 -> 10:12 AM)
To me, today is a huge day for the White Sox and the Indians.  Currently the Sox have a comfortable 7 game lead in the Central.  Not as comfortable as the 15-16 game lead they had a month ago, but still comfortable.  With the Sox playing a double header and Cleveland playing Detroit.  There is a possibility of some big momentum to be won today.  The Sox can take a strong hold of that momentum if say, they win both games of their double header and then Cleveland loses.  That would push the lead up to 8.5 games.  Or, the Sox could lose both games and Cleveland could win, putting the lead at just 5.5 games.  If that happens, the Central is offically back up for grabs.  Thats why I think today is HUGE in determining if the Sox can finish the Central off or be in for a dog fight the rest of the season.  Odds are the Sox split and Cleveland wins, but today has the potential to be a very big day for one team or the other.  Let's hope it goes well for our White Sox!

 

Cleveland isn't going to win tonight. They won't lose either... :P

Edited by Iwritecode
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