Phil Rogers' Playoff Prediction Scheme

[The Ginger Kid]

His logic is fairly sound, and of course he offers a major disclaimer, but it's a good read:

 

Link

[knightni]

Another speculation article stirring up the s***. :headshake

 

Phil Rogers can s*** in his hat for all I care. The Sox will get it done without his little stats disproving them.

[bmags]

Another speculation article stirring up the s***.  :headshake

 

Phil Rogers can s*** in his hat for all I care. The Sox will get it done without his little stats disproving them.

 

after all, a team with no player hitting above 280 and no great rbi stats surely wouldn't be above 35 games would they?

 

ANd what happened to that year we were supposed to win the pennant because we had 4 guys with a .280, 25 hr, 80 rbi stats???

[southsider2k5]

after all, a team with no player hitting above 280 and no great rbi stats surely wouldn't be above 35 games would they?

 

ANd what happened to that year we were supposed to win the pennant because we had 4 guys with a .280, 25 hr, 80 rbi stats???

 

It went out the door with the 30 starts 200 IP= division winners theory.

[Greg The Bull Luzinski]

Another speculation article stirring up the s***.  :headshake

 

Phil Rogers can s*** in his hat for all I care. The Sox will get it done without his little stats disproving them.

 

We need a smiley icon thar demonstrates "s***ting in a hat". Maybe we can call it the Phil Rogers Smiley. This one is close

[Balta1701]

The thing that really bothered me about the Rogers column was that he put the Angels ahead of us...

 

The Angels are a team that actually has a worse offense than us...especially lately with Anderson struggling...we've hit 40 more home runs than them and scored 15 more runs...our OBP is basically identical with theirs...we have a better overall ERA, a vastly better bullpen ERA (Their bullpen is basically exhausted), and the ERA of our starting pitchers is essentally identical.

 

I understand putting Oakland ahead of us as a risk, but the Angels are in basically the same boat we are, and they haven't done nearly as well putting the pieces together as we have.

[BFirebird]

The thing that really bothered me about the Rogers column was that he put the Angels ahead of us...

 

The Angels are a team that actually has a worse offense than us...especially lately with Anderson struggling...we've hit 40 more home runs than them and scored 15 more runs...our OBP is basically identical with theirs...we have a better overall ERA, a vastly better bullpen ERA (Their bullpen is basically exhausted), and the ERA of our starting pitchers is essentally identical.

 

I understand putting Oakland ahead of us as a risk, but the Angels are in basically the same boat we are, and they haven't done nearly as well putting the pieces together as we have.

 

 

Very well put...my thoughts exactly. With their injuries I would not put Oakland that high and I believe that Angels and White Sox are the 2 best teams in the AL. Your assessment of the Angels is very much right on the money...their bullpen is overused like what the Yanks do with their bullpen and their lineup is in shambles with Anderson struggling.

 

My hope and belief is that the White Sox are clicking at the right time...both offensively and pitching and it will carry them for at least a round or so.

[LosMediasBlancas]

Well, I guess we don't need to play any of the games, now that we've from this asshead.

[Balta1701]

The angels also have a real problem in that their best starting pitcher may be battling chronic lower back troubles.

[knightni]

The angels also have a real problem in that their best starting pitcher may be battling chronic lower back troubles.

Well... being big in the front can cause back trouble.

 

Just ask David Wells.

[alexgtp]

i wonder if he figured in the angels possibly losing colon for a cple sarts in the the equation.. JACKASS!! plain and simple.

[Balta1701]

He also didn't count the A's down at all for the injuries to Crosby or to Harden (which cost Harden 6 starts).

 

Without a healthy Crosby, I doubt that team makes the playoffs.

[southsider2k5]

He also didn't count the A's down at all for the injuries to Crosby or to Harden (which cost Harden 6 starts).

 

Without a healthy Crosby, I doubt that team makes the playoffs.

 

If Harden isn't healthy, they have zero chance at the post season.

[Mercy!]

Red-flag quotation in the Rogers column: “Throw out one-run games and the Sox would have been 2½ games behind…..” blah blah blah

 

Any “analysis” which requires you to discard a substantial part of the data set is strictly fantasyland material.

 

Now if we could just “throw out” the games with Oakland, we should be able to proceed straight to the World Series, shouldn’t we?

[southsider2k5]

Red-flag quotation in the Rogers column:  “Throw out one-run games and the Sox would have been 2½ games behind…..” blah blah blah

 

Any “analysis” which requires you to discard a substantial part of the data set is strictly fantasyland material.

 

Now if we could just “throw out” the games with Oakland, we should be able to proceed straight to the World Series, shouldn’t we?

 

And actually that line bugs me more than anything. How many blow out games vs one run games does Rogers think we are going to play in the playoffs. Whether your heart likes it or not, the Sox have become accustomed to playing playoff baseball on a daily basis. They are almost always in one or two run games, which is EXACTLY what they are going to be facing in the postseason. Why would you throw out the one piece of data that could be indicative of the future, and substitute it for some quasi-made up nuevo-statistic???

[whitesoxmanager]

QUOTE(knightni @ Sep 8, 2005 -> 11:06 AM)

Well... being big in the front can cause back trouble.

 

Just ask David Wells.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

His name isn't David Wells! It is FATASS!

[Jordan4life_2007]

I could care less about playoff predictions. Just like I didn't care when we were predicted to finish 4th in the division by most if not all of the "experts."

 

Bottomline, this team is good enough to succeed in the playoffs. This isn't like 2000 when you knew we would fail once the post-season started. We've got an elite pitching staff, a good bullpen, good defense, and clutch/timely hitting. We're 30-15 in one run games. A very good indicator of being able to succeed in the playoffs.

[Goldmember]

Red-flag quotation in the Rogers column:  “Throw out one-run games and the Sox would have been 2½ games behind…..” blah blah blah

 

Any “analysis” which requires you to discard a substantial part of the data set is strictly fantasyland material.

 

Now if we could just “throw out” the games with Oakland, we should be able to proceed straight to the World Series, shouldn’t we?

 

well if we take out our 1 run games wouldn't it also be fair and logical to take out cleveland and minny's 1 run games? do that and we are still on top. but that wouldn't bode well with the point rogers' attempts to make...

[witesoxfan]

I could care less about playoff predictions.  Just like I didn't care when we were predicted to finish 4th in the division by most if not all of the "experts."

 

Bottomline,  this team is good enough to succeed in the playoffs.  This isn't like 2000 when you knew we would fail once the post-season started.  We've got an elite pitching staff,  a good bullpen,  good defense,  and clutch/timely hitting.  We're 30-15 in one run games.  A very good indicator of being able to succeed in the playoffs.

 

Ya, atleast Parque isn't starting game 1. You want ouch...that is ouch.

 

Now, in all fairness to Parque, he pitched pretty solidly...6 strong, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB. But ya, it was pretty much over before it started.

 

This year...we will have atleast 2 15+ game winners(with Buehrle possibly at 17 or 18, and Garland at 19 or 20), and we could have that be 3 15+ game winners(and if Contreras stays hot as hell and pretty much wins out, that would be 4 15+ game winners). All of them will probably have sub 3 ERAs, with Contreras and Garcia pretty much the only ones on the bubble...we'll have 2 sub 3.50 ERA pitchers, and there is a chance Buehrle could be under 3 even. To add to that, we'll have 2 SP's whose WHIPs will likely be in the 1.15-1.20 range in Garland and Buehrle too. Our pen is better and deeper than in 2000, and the offense is more consistent.

 

After having rambled on for 20 minutes about just little obscure stats and potential possibilities...I'd like to say we have just as good a chance, if not a better chance, than any team in the AL at winning it all. The only teams that have scared me as a potential playoff matchup at any point during this season have been Oakland and Minnesota...both very well could miss the playoffs.

[Rowand44]

Oakland and Minnesota...both very well could miss the playoffs.

That was a good bet we made, wasn't it?

Edited September 8, 2005 by Rowand44

[witesoxfan]

That was a good bet me made, wasn't it?

 

LOL, ya. Cleveland has kinda spoiled some stuff this season.

 

Oakland will still probably win more games than Minnesota though, so I will take a little pride away from it

[Heads22]

I wonder if there's a reason he started his "hottest teams" component August 1. Seems like right this second the Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball.

[Soxbadger]

This aticle is not that insightful.

 

Every time the White Sox have a statistic or fact to their advantage, Rogers some how undermines it.

 

The White Sox beat the Angels a lot this season, but that does not mean anything in the playoffs.

 

The A's have beat the Sox a lot the past few years, this means they can not beat them in the playoffs.

 

And Im still wondering how the A's and Angels have a more balanced offense.

 

Outside of Vlad on the Angels, is anyone but Figgins even an arguable starter for the Sox?

 

As for the A's, Chavez would start, but the rest probably would not.

 

::shrugs::

 

SB

[Balta1701]

Bottomline,  this team is good enough to succeed in the playoffs.  This isn't like 2000 when you knew we would fail once the post-season started.  We've got an elite pitching staff,  a good bullpen,  good defense,  and clutch/timely hitting.  We're 30-15 in one run games.  A very good indicator of being able to succeed in the playoffs.

Also (and this is a real key)...we're almost completely healthy.

 

Crede has a hand problem yeah, but he may be back this weekend. Hermanson has a back problem, but he's been able to deal with it for at least a month. El Duque's shoulder is a question mark, but we havent' seen him struggling with it since the AS Break. Pods probably needs a couple days off here & there before the end of the year to rest them legs up...but other than that, there's really no one on our team who (possibly thanks to Ozzie's "Sunday lineups") isn't in good condition and seeming healthy.

[Whitewashed in '05]

Everyone makes very good points in this thread against Rogers and our team compared to others and its refreshing. This team can do it, hopefully they will.