KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4258376.stm Germany's Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, have narrowly won Sunday's election, exit polls suggest. However it is unclear whether Ms Merkel - who wants to introduce far-reaching reforms - has won enough support to form a government with Free Democrats. In Europe they seem to have more faith in exit polls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 http://www.aim.org/guest_column/A3704_0_6_0_C/ - interesting prediction back in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 Giving the boot to Schroder will mean closer ties with the US and a more conservative German government. I hope this is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 QUOTE(NUKE_CLEVELAND @ Sep 18, 2005 -> 11:32 AM) Giving the boot to Schroder will mean closer ties with the US and a more conservative German government. I hope this is right. All I've seen so far is exit poll numbers showing the Christian Democrats winning by only a percentage point so I'm not sure how why all the news networks are confident about Merkel winning. Germany's ARD television puts with Christian Democrats (CDU) in the lead with about 35% of the vote - much worse than expected. ... Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) are estimated to have won about 34% of votes. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4258376.stm If that's how it turns out that's a huge blow to the Christian Democrats who were supposed to win by a much larger amount than that. But Merkel has said she's dedicated to making Germany closer to the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 An exit poll by ZDF public television showed Merkel's Christian Democrats at 35.9 percent, considerably worse than expected and short of a majority with her preferred coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, at 10.4 percent. Schroeder's Social Democrats were at 33.6 percent, according to ZDF. ARD public television showed almost identical results, with Merkel's party at 35.7 percent and the Social Democrats at 33.7 percent. Gerhard Schroeder refused to concede defeat and said he could still theoretically remain in power if talks with other parties were successful. http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/18/D8CMQKRG8.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 As recently as six weeks ago the CDU was ahead of SPD by 15+ points in the polls, and they were still ahead by nearly 10 points on the eve of the election (see chart here). A 1.5% victory would be a huge disappointment and, more importantly, will probably not give them enough seats to form a government with their FDP partners. The wild card in all this is the newly formed Left party, a coalition of former communists and SPD supporters unhappy with welfare reforms, which stole votes from both the major parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 update Christian Democrats 35.4% Social Democrats 34.2% Some estimates give the CDU the same number of seats as Gerhard Schroeder's centre-left Social Democrats (SDP). CDU leader Angela Merkel, the pre-poll favourite to become chancellor, will be unable to form her preferred coalition and may have to join with the SPD. But Mr Schroeder has insisted that he had enough votes to stay chancellor. He said he could envisage a grand coalition of the two largest parties, but only if he was its leader. "The result today shows that the country will have Gerhard Schroeder as chancellor," he told cheering supporters. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4258376.stm Schroeder could form an alliance with the Green and Left which would have more seats than a coalition of the Christians and Free Democrats, I think. Tt's probably safe to say it's all up in the air at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 CDU 35.2 SD 34.2 http://www.tagesschau.de/ I wish I could read German so I could figure out what % is reporting. If you were wondering, Berlin is going heavily in favour of the socialists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 Actually, I studied German politics and can tell you what is happening here. 1 percentage point difference will mean approximately equal representation in the German parliament. In fact, ZDF (German TV) projects 223 seats in each party's contingent. The German parliament contains roughly 650 seats. Since the Greens have said that they would not join a coalition with the CDU, the only hope for Angela Merkel's party would be a grand coalition with Schroeder's SPD. This is the most likely scenario and probably the worst for the country because absolutely nothing would get done. Less likely scenarios include this: The SPD forms a three way coalition with the Left Party.PDS (former very left of center members in the West, former East German communist party in the East) who got 8.5% and the Greens who got 8.3%. Together they would hold about 330 seats, enough for a slim majority. However this is unlikely for two reasons. The coalition would be EXTREMELY fragile, and the SPD would be forced to put Oskar Lafontaine back in the cabinet, not a good idea for the SPD who forced him out last year. Also, there is a stigma about including the PDS in a coalition given the history of East German politics. Although the SPD has entered PDS coalitions in two states in Germany with rather boring results. The SPD might form a "traffic light coalition" THe SPD (red) party with the greens and the FDP (often referred to as the yellows). The FDP however, is the CDU light and said they're not interested in such a coalition. The CDU and FDP might try to form a minority coalition to assemble a government. That has a .0001% chance of happening. Hope that clears it up - but it probably won't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Thanks for the insight winodj. About that prediction for same amount of seats for CDU and SPD, both zdf and ard tv's flash update centers have the CDU with more seats at this time. Very confusing, I need an english election update site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 English update, using adr results http://www16.dw-world.de/wahlgrafik/index.php?lang=en Still not really sure how much of the vote is reporting yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted September 19, 2005 Share Posted September 19, 2005 Just so you know ARD and ZDF are the same company. Both are publicly run state news agencies. ARD = Alle Rundfunk Deutschland (All broadcasters Germany) and is an amalgam of regional state networks. ZDF = Zweites Deutschen Fernsehen (Second German TV Channel). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted September 19, 2005 Share Posted September 19, 2005 Judging from Deutsche Welle's breakdown, a grand coalition maybe the only way out unless the Left Party's Lafontaine shuts the hell up and lets "Die Linke" in the door. Because Schroeder isn't conceding - and frankly if he can get his renegade Linke friends to join in, he has a clear majority of seats supporting him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted October 3, 2005 Author Share Posted October 3, 2005 Schroeder ready to step down to make way for Merkel http://www.expatica.com/source/site_articl...side+for+Merkel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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