Frankensteiner Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:00 PM) This gives me a lineup of: Pods LF Furcal SS Thome/Delgado/Giles DH Konerko 1B Iguchi 2B Dye RF AJ C Crede 3B Anderson CF That looks like a really nice line-up but I won't get my hopes up. I get the feeling Kenny and Ozzie have a huge woody for the team chemistry thing, making Rowand and Uribe unlikely candidates to be traded. Hope I'm wrong... I also have my reservations with Thome. At 35 and with injury concerns, it's a real roll of the dice to have him on the payroll for that much money. Edited October 13, 2005 by Frankensteiner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 02:46 PM) If you'd like to now divert to the question of whether or not 85 million is realistic, that's an entirely different discussion. I am going to go out on a limb and say $85 million is the lowest that our 2006 payroll will be. With a 20% attendance increase, on top of a large ticket price increase, plus at least two playoff rounds, there is some cash to be spent. Don't doubt it for a minute. If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 01:13 PM) I am going to go out on a limb and say $85 million is the lowest that our 2006 payroll will be. With a 20% attendance increase, on top of a large ticket price increase, plus at least two playoff rounds, there is some cash to be spent. Don't doubt it for a minute. If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. I could imagine the chairman spending $90 on a team that makes the world series. I can't imagine him topping triple digits. Not yet anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:15 PM) I could imagine the chairman spending $90 on a team that makes the world series. I can't imagine him topping triple digits. Not yet anyway. Just going off of the last 5 years or so, the profit/loss of a prior season, is about 95% responsible for the increase/decrease in the following seasons payroll. It has been almost uncanny. If you take the Forbes figures of PnL and the payrolls, it is a direct 1 to 1 correlation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomSlowik Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) Over $90 mil seems like a stretch to me. I could seem them maybe getting one big name guy if they happen to fall short this year ( they don't) to put them over the top, but not more than that. Plus their team philosophy still seems to be the team over any individual player, meaning I don't see them splurging too much. I could buy raises to the individuals already in their organization, but I don't think they'll ever be consistent players in FA, with the possible exception of 07 (there are some interesting players, but that's way too far off to worry about) if they decide they don't want some of their guys. It's going to take another seriously successful year after this one with a concurrent jump in attendance for them to get that high in terms of payroll in my book. Edited October 13, 2005 by ZoomSlowik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankensteiner Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 02:08 PM) Hell, I woulnd't care if he was hitting .050 against lefties...I'd make that deal. a.) The kid's going to hit 40 home runs next year if he doens't get hurt, and maybe for the next decade too. b.) The kid has time to learn to hit lefties. It's going to be hard for him to hit 40 HR if he has approx. 200 ABs against LHP (this assuming he's a full-time player). I just don't like to give up a young starting pitcher entering his prime, regardless of what you get in return. Let's keep in mind the Sox were fortunate enough to go through the entire season without any injuries in the starting rotation. Trading away Garland gives you: Buehrle/Contreras/Garcia/McCarthy/Duque. You're pretty much guaranteed that Duque doesn't make every start, and this time you don't have another starter as good as BMac waiting in the wings. One of the other four get injured, and you're basically f***ed. I say keep all six guys on the roster, good SP is the most valuable commodity in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 02:13 PM) If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. Well, I still say 85 is what we should try to fit to (having more is gravy, but I tend to think it will be banked to absorb long-term things and junk like Frank's buyout) Also, here is how playoff money is split up (keep in mind MLB sets the playoff ticket prices and get's a pretty hefty chunk of the change along the way)... Division Series Money: Split between 8 participating teams as well as the 2 non-Wild-Card second place teams in each league... Money split 12 ways. Championship Series Money: Split between 4 participants World Series Money: split between 2 participants Edited October 13, 2005 by Randar68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankensteiner Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:24 PM) Over $90 mil seems like a stretch to me. I could seem them maybe getting one big name guy if they happen to fall short this year ( they don't) to put them over the top, but not more than that. Plus their team philosophy still seems to be the team over any individual player, meaning I don't see them splurging too much. I could buy raises to the individuals already in their organization, but I don't think they'll ever be consistent players in FA, with the possible exception of 07 (there are some interesting players, but that's way too far off to worry about) if they decide they don't want some of their guys. It's going to take another seriously successful year after this one with a concurrent jump in attendance for them to get that high in terms of payroll in my book. Yeah, a good question to ask is what this season will do in terms of increasing White Sox season ticket sales. If that jumps up dramatically, which I sort of expect, I wouldn't think the $90M figure is out of the question. Triple digits is too much IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(Frankensteiner @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 02:13 PM) That looks like a really nice line-up but I won't get my hopes up. I get the feeling Kenny and Ozzie have a huge woody for the team chemistry thing, making Rowand and Uribe unlikely candidates to be traded. Hope I'm wrong... I also have my reservations with Thome. At 35 and with injury concerns, it's a real roll of the dice to have him on the payroll for that much money. I agree. I think my preference would actually be Giles, as it also allows you to resign Frank to a short-term incentive-laden deal. In a park as small as USCF, Giles could play CF on the days he isn't playing RF or LF resting either Pods or Dye. Gives you a back-up plan at DH if Frank can't stay healthy (you then play Anderson in CF and DH either Pods or Giles)... But again, unless the West Coast teams just aren't interested, I don't see him leaving the west coast. Thome's injuries are a concern, but with either Thome or Delgado, their current teams KNOW they're going to have to eat a bunch of money, much like the Yankees and Contreras... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(Frankensteiner @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 02:30 PM) Yeah, a good question to ask is what this season will do in terms of increasing White Sox season ticket sales. If that jumps up dramatically, which I sort of expect, I wouldn't think the $90M figure is out of the question. Triple digits is too much IMO. What moves they make this offseason will have a LOT to do with what those ticket sales look like... They bring back Pauly, add a couple bats, keep the core of the rotation and bullpen, and you're going to see a BIG jump, IMO... You capitalize on this season and back it up by further strengthening your team and you will absolutely galvanize this fan-base... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:13 PM) I am going to go out on a limb and say $85 million is the lowest that our 2006 payroll will be. With a 20% attendance increase, on top of a large ticket price increase, plus at least two playoff rounds, there is some cash to be spent. Don't doubt it for a minute. If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. I agree with you completely. I calculated that the attendance increase plus home playoff games has generated at least an extra $15 million revenue IN TICKET SALES ALONE compared to 2004. If we make it to the World Series, that number exceeds $20 million. Edited October 13, 2005 by 3E8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 01:41 PM) I agree with you completely. I calculated that the attendance increase plus home playoff games has generated at least an extra $15 million revenue IN TICKET SALES ALONE compared to 2004. If we make it to the World Series, that number exceeds $20 million. Isn't the value of our radio contract about to significantly decline, on the other hand? (Also, I believe adding in $15 million basically would push our payroll to that $90 mil plateau) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 04:13 PM) I am going to go out on a limb and say $85 million is the lowest that our 2006 payroll will be. With a 20% attendance increase, on top of a large ticket price increase, plus at least two playoff rounds, there is some cash to be spent. Don't doubt it for a minute. If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. I actually think that $85 million is the HIGHEST payroll we can expect. That said, I also think that $85 million is the most likely payroll. Teams earn less from the playoffs than people think, IIRC. There's no individual TV deal, no seperate radio deal, and a lot of ticket revenue belongs to the Commissioner's Office (this is where the players get their playoff shares). Food and parking and souveniers are nice, but they still have costs. I think that even if the Sox get WS home playoff games, they won't get much more than $7-8 million, but that's just off the top of my head as I try to remember the 2001 Commissioner's Blue Ribbon Panel report. The question is how the Sox actually SPEND that extra money. In 2001, they went after David Wells. It was a good pickup, but he was hurt, and the rest of the staff except for Buehrle collapsed. The needs for the 2005 team are more subtle, and $10 million could make a MUCH bigger improvement to the 2005 team than the 2001 spending did for the 2000 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 05:34 PM) I think that even if the Sox get WS home playoff games, they won't get much more than $7-8 million, but that's just off the top of my head as I try to remember the 2001 Commissioner's Blue Ribbon Panel report. OK, not quite right. According to the 2001 data from MLB, the Yankees (WS losers) got $16 million from postseason revenue in 2001, while the Diamondbacks got $13 million. The other playoff clubs got much less. Here's the link; there is playoff revenue column. I think if the Sox go to the WS, it's $10 million in revenue for sure, if they lose the ALCS, think $6-$7 or so, a la Seattle 2001. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:41 PM) I think if the Sox go to the WS, it's $10 million in revenue for sure, if they lose the ALCS, think $6-$7 or so, a la Seattle 2001. Also consider the inflated ticket prices in the last 4 years, I think those numbers are going to be significantly different, no? Cost of an ALCS ticket in 2001 vs today? I think the WS participants are looking more in the 20 million dollar range while the LCS losers are looking in the 10-12 million dollar range... Of course not to mention parking, souvenirs, concessions, etc... Yeah, the radio does decline a little bit, but IIRC the weighting of that deal was towards the Bulls (mutual broadcast rights), but I could be wrong... However, the Sox also got a GREAT deal with Comcast and have a significant increase in TV money. Edited October 13, 2005 by Randar68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSGuy406 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 So, I think we can agree that the payroll will probably be in a range from $85 million to $93 million (or so). He might raise it to $100, but I don't see the need to, unless the plan is to sign someone like Brian Giles as well as trading for a bat like Delgado or Thome. Really, they just need to make the smart investment when the off-season rolls around. At this point, I'm not quite sure who that is -- but I'd lean towards Giles, for our giant need of some real good OBP, along with lots of x-tra basehits (46 doubles and triples combined this year -- I'd say that some of those will turn into homers, but he'd be a 20 HR, 40 2B/3B guy at the Cell). I'm interested as to what they do at thirdbase. I think they should go the route of sacrificing some defense for offense -- so long as there's a big improvement on offense, like Chad Tracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 08:18 PM) So, I think we can agree that the payroll will probably be in a range from $85 million to $93 million (or so). He might raise it to $100, but I don't see the need to, unless the plan is to sign someone like Brian Giles as well as trading for a bat like Delgado or Thome. Really, they just need to make the smart investment when the off-season rolls around. At this point, I'm not quite sure who that is -- but I'd lean towards Giles, for our giant need of some real good OBP, along with lots of x-tra basehits (46 doubles and triples combined this year -- I'd say that some of those will turn into homers, but he'd be a 20 HR, 40 2B/3B guy at the Cell). I'm interested as to what they do at thirdbase. I think they should go the route of sacrificing some defense for offense -- so long as there's a big improvement on offense, like Chad Tracy. I've still not seen a logical expression of why Arizona would trade Chad Tracy. If they have a payroll of 85-93 million, they could resign Konerko and add 2 10-12 million dollar a year contracts in ADDITION simply by moving Marte, El Duque and whoever they replace with the 2 big contracts... Giles would easily hit 0 HR's at USCF, and I'd bet more along the lines of about 35 HR's per year for the first 2-3 years of a new deal. Again, not sure he'd leave the west coast... The Sox will likely be starting Joe Crede at 3rd base next year... can't deny that guy's clutch-ness... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 08:00 PM) That is interesting, but I'd be more intrigued with a normalized distribution including all teams that didn't make the playoffs versus teams that did... That is, for each of the last 5 years, chart the playoff-season attendence/payroll and the following season's att./payroll versus the teams that failed to make the playoffs... if you're just plotting a single data source at individual points, fitting it to a curve isn't really usefull... more of a bargraph... That's a good idea, though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 09:00 PM) Nice chart. Thanks for the back up. Also I believe the dollar for dollar amounts correlate even closer than the percentages do. The previous year's profit/loss in total dollars, is almost almost identical to the next years payroll increase/decrease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 08:18 PM) So, I think we can agree that the payroll will probably be in a range from $85 million to $93 million (or so). He might raise it to $100, but I don't see the need to, unless the plan is to sign someone like Brian Giles as well as trading for a bat like Delgado or Thome. BTW, it is this type of reasoning that I used to determine it would be economically feasible to acquire a Thome/Delgado/Helton/Giles in addition to Furcal and resigning Pauly... Again, wouldn't an offseason like that simply electrify this city? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 09:33 AM) BTW, it is this type of reasoning that I used to determine it would be economically feasible to acquire a Thome/Delgado/Helton/Giles in addition to Furcal and resigning Pauly... Again, wouldn't an offseason like that simply electrify this city? This team is primed for a huge bounce in Chicago. Regardless of if they win the ALCS or not, they have a big boost coming in the payroll department. If they make a big named spash in the off season, in addition to their 2005 success, they could be in excellent shape to take back Chicago from the Cubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 10:28 AM) I've still not seen a logical expression of why Arizona would trade Chad Tracy. If they have a payroll of 85-93 million, they could resign Konerko and add 2 10-12 million dollar a year contracts in ADDITION simply by moving Marte, El Duque and whoever they replace with the 2 big contracts... Giles would easily hit 0 HR's at USCF, and I'd bet more along the lines of about 35 HR's per year for the first 2-3 years of a new deal. Again, not sure he'd leave the west coast... The Sox will likely be starting Joe Crede at 3rd base next year... can't deny that guy's clutch-ness... Agreed on every point, although the Crede thing is a bit frustrating. The good news with Crede is: April: .304/.368/.456 May: .155/.211/.286 June: .275/.333/.538 July: .304/.342/.551 Aug: .103/.148/.172 Sep: .379/.419/.759 He actually had FOUR good months this season, which is an improvement. His two awful months happened to be more awful than in years past - including that absurd, worse-than-Cristian-Guzman August. I'm actually of the opinion that he could put up a .290/.335/.500 season next year - it'll be his 28 year old season, and he's bound to peak somewhere. I just hope the Sox are not fooled by it and move on to the next 3B option when he's up for free agency (2008, I believe). I really hope that Fields shows improvement by then and can be a major league third basemen - I have serious doubts right now. Does anyone know where Kenny Williams lives? Can we put a whole bunch of subliminal messages around his house about signing Brian Giles? Like a road sign on his way home that says "Chicago, 7 Giles" or something? A likeness of Giles carved into the hedges across from his house? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 08:40 AM) Agreed on every point, although the Crede thing is a bit frustrating. The good news with Crede is: April: .304/.368/.456 May: .155/.211/.286 June: .275/.333/.538 July: .304/.342/.551 Aug: .103/.148/.172 Sep: .379/.419/.759 I think your expectations for Crede are a bit high at this point, but I could definitely see .270/.330/.500 Just for comparison, here are his 2004 splits... April: .230/.284/.365 May: .184/.204/.402 June: .329/.418/.600 July .198/.232/.264 Aug: .210/.324/.387 Sept: .275/.333/.500 Oct: .273/.273/.364 2003 splits: April: .233 .261 .314 May: .209 .250 .352 June: .244 .299 .367 July: .244 .333 .439 Aug: .352 .392 .659 Sept: .280 .309 .452 In 2005, Joe had 4 of his best 6 months as a full-time MLB 3rd baseman... If he just struggles to the tune of .250-.300-.450 (equates to ~16 more hits) in the August and May months instead of becoming a pitcher in our lineup, his season-ending numbers look more like this: .289/.340/.530... I just hope he figures out how to be consistent, because he's clutch as hell and he has the ability, he just loses himself entirely for 20-30 games ta a crack and it has killed him... However, he has a nice upward career trend and I think the Sox need to stick with him at least one more year and see if he can find that consistency... It's not the high of the highs as much as the low of the lows... You need to find a way to mitigate the damage when you're scuffling... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randar68 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 08:40 AM) Does anyone know where Kenny Williams lives? Can we put a whole bunch of subliminal messages around his house about signing Brian Giles? Like a road sign on his way home that says "Chicago, 7 Giles" or something? A likeness of Giles carved into the hedges across from his house? If I knew where Kenny lived I'd be sending him doctored pictures of Giles, Furcal, and PK jumping into eachothers arms in White Sox uniforms with a World Series celebration going on... I thought he lived in Hyde Park or something like that, but his son went to HS in Plainfield, so.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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