You're the GM: White Sox edition

[CWSGuy406]

W/r/t giving big money to guys like BJ Ryan and Billy Wagner -- like, uhh, eight million (or more) -- no thanks.

 

Going into next year, our bullpen looks like this: Politte (option will be picked up), Hermanson, Cotts, Jenks, Marte, Vizcaino (possibly), Bajenaru (dependent upon Vizcaino). El Duque also might be part of that group, and, he could be pretty effective if allowed (like Kelvim Escobar is doing now) to throw two innings at a time, still rack up a lot of innings (80-100), and at the same time, keep Jose's head in the right place.

 

Kenny Williams, among others, have shown that you can find good arms off the scrap heap for cheap. Will they be better than Billy Wagner or Eric Gagne? No, but they'll probably cost a million bucks or less, and it saves you an extra $7-9 million to spend elsewhere. Actually, both Chicago GM's have done a decent job of doing this -- Hendry found Rusch, Dempster, Fox (really good until Dusty overused him and screwed him), and Williamson.

 

I'd do this -- sign Brian Giles (lol, for about the tenth time). I totally agree with BlackBetsy and 3E8 that he's pefect for this lineup. Move Dye to first, or if Giles can handle it, move him there. Don't pick up Thomas' option, but sign him to a one-year, incentive laden deal. And, for the time that he's hurt, sign someone like Matt Lecroy who can hit lefties well, and platoon him with someone like Ross Gload.

 

I then come up with a package including Damaso Marte and Brian Anderson to trade for Chad Tracy. I doubt his defense is on-par with Crede's, but his bat more than makes up for it.

[witesoxfan]

Would it be that out of the question, or dumb if we traded Cotts insted of Marte, getting alot back for one of the best LHRP in the game,then signing BJ Ryan? While your payroll goes up because of Ryan, you could get alot back for Cotts, correct? A package of El Duque, Cotts and Anderson could bring us a nice bat, no?

 

Arthur Rhodes, with a nasty contract and coming off a bad season, was a large part of a deal for the underrated offensively but way, way overpaid catcher Jason Kendall(although he was quite bad this year), and he then got traded for Matt Lawton, who put up like .278 20 70 .366 OBP, .421 SLG, .788 OPS the year before with Cleveland.

 

Consider that Marte probably had a better season than Rhodes, is younger, and has a more affordable contract. Marte is more attractive to other teams than one might think, considering he is only 1 year removed from a very solid season all around with the Sox(about a 3.25 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP...while not spectacular, you cannot tell me that's not solid). The prior two seasons he was damn near untouchable.

Edited October 11, 2005 by witesoxfan

[3E8]

I'd agree the chances are slim, but what do you think are the reasons why the chances are slim?

 

(1)  Giles won't leave Cali;

(2)  The Sox won't let Konerko go;

(3)  The Sox wouldn't spend $40 million on a 35 year old

(4)  The Sox won't spend that money on anyone?

 

Just curious.  I actually see #1 as the biggest reason, followed by #2.

 

I'd also agree with you that Giles' 36-38 year old seasons at the Cell would likely be better (sabremetrically, at least) than Konerko's 31-33 seasons.

I see a mixture of 2 and 3 being the main reasons. A lot depends on what happens during the rest of the postseason. I'm pretty sure Paul wouldn't hesitate to sign with us if we made a competetive offer. In my mind, if PK gets a new contract, Giles is immediately out of the question.

 

Part of me thinks Sox management would look at PK's stats, then at Giles stats, and not even realize that Giles is a better offensive asset than PK because of how badly the two parks skew the numbers. Giles had almost 11 (10.8 I think) more batting win shares than Konerko. His offense alone generated just under 4 more team wins.

 

An aging Brian Giles is more productive and a better value than Konerko, I just highly doubt he would end up here.

[CWSGuy406]

Giles OPS+ (148) also ranks better than Konerko's (136, IIRC).

 

More than anything, though -- 119 walks. That's amazing.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Giles OPS+ (148) also ranks better than Konerko's (136, IIRC). 

 

More than anything, though -- 119 walks.  That's amazing.

That also has to do with Petco's absurd park factor.

[Randar68]

Giles OPS+ (148) also ranks better than Konerko's (136, IIRC). 

 

More than anything, though -- 119 walks.  That's amazing.

 

 

Look at the long run of 30+ HR seasons he put up in Pittsburg... Petco has insane dimensions unless you hit it right down the line...

 

The wall is like 375 just 15-20 yards from the found pole in RF, if that...

[Frankensteiner]

I'm surprised about the level of interest in Furcal. He's an improvement over Uribe hitting-wise, but more erratic in the field. I don't think a carreer .348 OBP is anything special, especially when he's likely to demand Jimmy Rollins money.

 

And I agree with the need to acquire a #3 hitter, and perhaps a #4 hitter depending on what happens with Konerko. But after Giles and Matsui, there's really not much available. If we can't get either of those guys (likely), I'd just pick-up Everett's option and attempt to work something at the trade deadline. I would not touch our pitching for any trades.

[Randar68]

I'm surprised about the level of interest in Furcal. He's an improvement over Uribe hitting-wise, but more erratic in the field. I don't think a carreer .348 OBP is anything special, especially when he's likely to demand Jimmy Rollins money.

 

And I agree with the need to acquire a #3 hitter, and perhaps a #4 hitter depending on what happens with Konerko. But after Giles and Matsui, there's really not much available. If we can't get either of those guys (likely), I'd just pick-up Everett's option and attempt to work something at the trade deadline. I would not touch our pitching for any trades.

 

Frucal steals a TON of bases and teaming him with a healthy Pods at the top of the order is what REALLy makes him attractive. It also allows you to use Iguchi in a more productive role in the #5 or #6 hole, where he can drive in runs.

 

I agree he'll probably be overpaid, but we have to look at the positions on the field where we have a chance, through FA, to upgrade. Bill Mueller at 3rd? Furcal at SS? Not much of anything out there for CF or 1B other than Pauly. The other major issues to address, #3 and #4 hitters, will have to be addressed through resigning Pauly, signing a DH, and/or trades.

 

Very limited by what this FA market provides and who we have returning next year.

[fathom]

And I agree with the need to acquire a #3 hitter, and perhaps a #4 hitter depending on what happens with Konerko. But after Giles and Matsui, there's really not much available. If we can't get either of those guys (likely), I'd just pick-up Everett's option and attempt to work something at the trade deadline. I would not touch our pitching for any trades.

 

PLEASE, No more Carl Everett.

[Randar68]

PLEASE, No more Carl Everett.

 

I'd be fine with Carl if he replaced Timo as the "Bat off the bench" and emergency OF'er at ~$1-2 million per year...

 

Otherwise... HE GONE!

[fathom]

I'd be fine with Carl if he replaced Timo as the "Bat off the bench" and emergency OF'er at ~$1-2 million per year...

 

Otherwise...  HE GONE!

 

I can't see Everett willingly accepting being a bench player next season. I'm sure he feels like he deserves to start for some team. I really want to see Anderson be the 4th outfielder next season, and get groomed to start the following season.

[Frankensteiner]

I can't see Everett willingly accepting being a bench player next season.  I'm sure he feels like he deserves to start for some team.  I really want to see Anderson be the 4th outfielder next season, and get groomed to start the following season.

 

Wouldn't it be better for Anderson to get a full season of at-bats in the minors instead of limited playing time here? I wouldn't mind the Sox trading an overrated Rowand and giving the job to Anderson but how realistic is that?

[Randar68]

Wouldn't it be better for Anderson to get a full season of at-bats in the minors instead of limited playing time here? I wouldn't mind the Sox trading an overrated Rowand and giving the job to Anderson but how realistic is that?

 

very.

 

Anderson ain't gonna be a 4th OF'er getting 200 AB's... that's almost useless. Need to have consistency and REGULAR playing time. Some people haven't come to grips with this yet. Some of these same people are thinking Young will be the starting CF'er in 2007 and Anderson will then be a full-time player, meaning you're breaking in 2 guys at once... I guess they don't see the value in rebuilding the outfield incrementally?

Edited October 12, 2005 by Randar68

[fathom]

Wouldn't it be better for Anderson to get a full season of at-bats in the minors instead of limited playing time here? I wouldn't mind the Sox trading an overrated Rowand and giving the job to Anderson but how realistic is that?

 

Some of us on here are of the opinion that either Rowand or Pods need to get traded, as the two of them don't provide enough offense being in the outfield together.

[fathom]

With both Pods and Dye having their contracts done after next season (I might be wrong on that), I think it's very important that the Sox find out if Anderson can contribute at the MLB level. With it being very unlikely that he starts next year, that's why I think it's important he's on the team as the 4th outfielder (like how Wily Mo has been with the Reds the last two years prior to injuries).

[BlackBetsy]

Anderson ain't gonna be a 4th OF'er getting 200 AB's... that's almost useless.  Need to have consistency and REGULAR playing time.  Some people haven't come to grips with this yet.  Some of these same people are thinking Young will be the starting CF'er in 2007 and Anderson will then be a full-time player, meaning you're breaking in 2 guys at once...  I guess they don't see the value in rebuilding the outfield incrementally?

Not sure 200 AB at the major league level - i.e., playing 1/3 the schedule - is that irregular of playing time.

 

I guess their are a few possibilities for the Sox OF next year assuming Dye (set to make $5 million next year) and Podsednik are givens:

 

(1) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with Timo as 4th OF

(2) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with Anderson as 4th OF

(3) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with free agent better than Timo as 4th OF

 

(4) Dye-Anderson-Podsednik (Rowand traded) with Timo as 4th OF

(5) Dye-Anderson-Podsednik (Rowand traded) with free agent better than Timo as 4th OF

 

Of all these scenarios, #1 scares me the most, because it's no improvement, except for whatever natural improvement Dye (not likely) Rowand (likely) and Podsednik (somewhat likely) have.

 

Randar, if you are saying that you'd rather see Dye-Anderson-Podsednik than Dye-Rowand-Podsednik, that's fine, and a reasonable case can be made for that. I'd much rather see scenario 5 rather than 4, though.

 

However, I think that Rowand brings less in trade value in the 2005-06 offseason than he would either mid-season '06 or in the '06-'07 season. I think Rowand bounces back to a .820-.830 OPS next season (say .275/.345/.485) with good counting stats like 20 HR and 80 RBI.

 

If Rowand is back (and I think he will be), I'd much prefer that the Sox keep Anderson at the MLB level instead of having a stiff like Timo on the roster as the 4th OF. If you can upgrade over Timo, fine, keep Anderson at Charlotte. But if it's Anderson/Timo for the 4th OF spot, I'll pick Anderson every time, even if the 200 scattered at bats don't allow for his best development.

[Randar68]

With both Pods and Dye having their contracts done after next season (I might be wrong on that), I think it's very important that the Sox find out if Anderson can contribute at the MLB level.  With it being very unlikely that he starts next year, that's why I think it's important he's on the team as the 4th outfielder (like how Wily Mo has been with the Reds the last two years prior to injuries).

 

Sox have a team option on Dye for 2007 and Pods will only have about 3 years of service time after this season, meaning he is not eligible for FA until after the 2008 season.

[Randar68]

If Rowand is back (and I think he will be), I'd much prefer that the Sox keep Anderson at the MLB level instead of having a stiff like Timo on the roster as the 4th OF.  If you can upgrade over Timo, fine, keep Anderson at Charlotte.  But if it's Anderson/Timo for the 4th OF spot, I'll pick Anderson every time, even if the 200 scattered at bats don't allow for his best development.

 

IMO, you can't build an effective organization if you keep stunting prospect growth by puting them in unwinnable situations or diminishing their trade value.

 

If Anderson isn't going to start, trade him now. If Rowand isn't going to start, try to trade him. If you can't get anything of value, then hold onto him as your 4th OF'er.

 

You ALWAYS have to keep looking at the future, and easing young guys into the league one or 2 at a time is the way to keep that turnover happenning without hurting your team. If Anderson and Rowand project to have even similar production, even if Rowand might slightly be expected to produce better in 2006, you have to play Anderson. That puts you in a position to know what you have heading into 2007 when you may be looking at 3 other OF'ers being MLB-ready. You absolutely must, IMO, find out what you have in Brian Anderson, by playing him every day, before Spring Training 2007 rolls around.

 

And again, while I don't really advocate it, look at Hermida and Francouer... Young could make that jump next spring...

[BlackBetsy]

And again, while I don't really advocate it, look at Hermida and Francouer... Young could make that jump next spring...

That would moot everything, wouldn't it? Trade Rowand and Anderson and let Young develop away. Heck the Sox might even be able to get a left handed bat for Rowand and Anderson.

[Gene Honda Civic]

CoughJulioLugoCough

 

Furcal - 9M/yr

Lugo - 4M/yr

 

Lugo's #1 player comp? - Rafael Furcal

[BlackBetsy]

CoughJulioLugoCough

 

Furcal - 9M/yr

Lugo - 4M/yr

 

Lugo's #1 player comp? - Rafael Furcal

Furcal's #1 comp is...Jimmy Rollins.

 

I don't get Furcal at $9M per year. If he had a .390 OBP like his rookie year when he took 73 walks vs. 440 AB, sure. But not at a .340 OBP.

 

I think Uribe will put up a .340 OBP next year himself. Seriously. I have noticed a dramatic increase in his willingness to lay off pitches - especially 2 strike pitches - over the last few months.

 

Uribe walks by month:

 

April -- 5

May -- 3

June -- 4

July -- 4

August - 7

September - 10

 

If Juan can walk 51 times a year, which is his Aug/Sept. walk rate, he'll hit .280 or so (he'll be swinging at better pitches) and he'll have a .340 OBP. Add that to the fact that next year will be his age 26 season (he turns 27 in late July), there is a LOT of upside for the Sox to expect on Uribe.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Furcal's #1 comp is...Jimmy Rollins.

Hence why I used the $9M a year figure. He's goign to get Rollins type money, if not more. -- Also comp #2 is Lugo.

 

I just like to point that out to people who somehow think Furcal is a savior. -- Lugo is essentially the same player, and nobody thinks he's the answer.

 

I think Uribe will put up a .340 OBP next year himself.  Seriously. I have noticed a dramatic increase in his willingness to lay off pitches - especially 2 strike pitches - over the last few months.

 

If Juan can stay consistent for a full season, he's a huge asset to this team.

[Randar68]

I just like to point that out to people who somehow think Furcal is a savior. -- Lugo is essentially the same player, and nobody thinks he's the answer.

 

The Savior? Hell, they sign Furcal, they'll still need a #3 and #4 hitter... That is the #1 priority. However, Furcal is about the same age as Uribe, is about equivalent defensively (more range), and he hits better than Uribe. Expecting either of them to significantly surpass what they have done in the majors until now is silly and just wishful thinking, IMO.

 

Furcal has hit a damn consistent .284 without much variance, season-to-season. He also stole 46 bags (vs 10 CS) on a team that doesn't run much (only guy on Atlanta with 20+ attempts). How many bags does Uribe steal on a team that runs a lot?

 

.348 career OBP isn't great, but at the same time, our leadoff and #2 hitters went for .351 and .342 respectively.

 

Do you guys grasp the effect on pitchers it would have to start a lineup out with Podsednick and Furcal 1-2? In addition to those top-of-the-order things he does, he also slugged .479 with a .777 OPS that would have been about even with Iguchi for 3rd best on our team (out of the regulars)...

 

Uribe has value. Hell, play him at 3rd and trade Crede, I don't care, but Furcal does a LOT of things for a team that needs a more guys to be more multi-faceted.

 

 

This goes back to what fathom and I have discussed. #9 hitters at SS are easy to find. #1 or #2 hitters at that position are much more valued. We'll see what the market bears for him, but I would target him if I were KW, although 9 million would be a little too rich for my blood. Most big-market teams in the need of SS got theirs last year.

Edited October 12, 2005 by Randar68

[CWSGuy406]

Uhh, Furcal had a 100 OPS+ this past season, while Uribe's (who only since September added the leg kick) had an 85 OPS+.

 

Defensively, Juan Uribe had 9.3 defensive win shares to Furcal's 8.1.

 

Furcal probably is the better player, but all things considered -- equal defense, edge to Furcal offensively -- the offensive edge isn't worth the $10 million that we'd have to pay him.

Edited October 12, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[Randar68]

Uhh, Furcal had a 100 OPS+ this past season, while Uribe's (who only since September added the leg kick) had an 85 OPS+.

 

Defensively, Juan Uribe had 9.3 defensive win shares to Furcal's 8.1. 

 

Furcal probably is the better player, but all things considered -- equal defense, edge to Furcal offensively -- the offensive edge isn't worth the $10 million that we'd have to pay him.

 

Ok, stat-geeks, put your calculators away for 10 minutes and take a step back. Look at the bigger picture of "how do you build a team" and "how do you fit pieces together"...

 

It's not a one-to-one comparison when comparing a demon on the base-paths as a #2 hitter to Uribe, who doesn't steal, get on base, or provide you with anything you can build around except for defense, of which Furcal is his equal.

 

Again, I don't know that I'd pay Furcal more than 8-9 million, but Uribe get's a raise next year to 3.15M in 2006 and 4.15M in 2007 w/ a 5 million dollar 2008 option. It's not like he's working for the league minimum.

 

Hitters in the #1-5 range are exceedingly difficult to find or acquire. Anytime you can fill one of those positions with an player at SS, C, CF, or 2B, you're giving yourself infinitely more options in the way and positions you have available to fill the other holes in your lineup.

 

Look, Uribe is a career .262-.305-.432. Furcal is a career .284-.348-.409 and has done so at the top of the order. If they are both excellent defensively, which do you prefer?

 

Is getting a #1 or #2 hitter at SS worth the difference of ~5 million a year versus a #8 hitting SS?

 

Tough call. I think it is, others may not, but it's not the 10 million dollar difference some are making it out to be.