You're the GM: White Sox edition

[Gene Honda Civic]

Not a tough call at all. KneeCap Podsednik

 

Use the $5M to find a real left fielder.

[Randar68]

Not a tough call at all. KneeCap Podsednik

 

Use the $5M to find a real left fielder.

 

Wait, dump Pods, don't sign Uribe, and look for a real LF'er? Who is going to lead-off? Maybe you missed the part of the season where the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, you know, the part where they had a legit leadoff hitter who got on and stole a crap-load of bases... Sheesh, your plan has us looking like the 2001-2004 teams except without the power. That worked SOOOOO well.

 

And we replace this leadoff how? With Uribe? Rowand? Dye? Come on, what's the solution there?

Edited October 12, 2005 by Randar68

[Gene Honda Civic]

Wait, dump Pods, don't sign Uribe, and look for a real LF'er?  Who is going to lead-off?  Maybe you missed the part of the season where the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, you know, the part where they had a legit leadoff hitter who got on and stole a crap-load of bases...  Sheesh, your plan has us looking like the 2001-2004 teams except without the power.  That worked SOOOOO well.

 

And we replace this leadoff how?  With Uribe?  Rowand?  Dye?  Come on, what's the solution there?

Well yeah, speed never slumps....

[3E8]

Think we can trick Sabean into trading us Winn for Podsednik?

[Gene Honda Civic]

Think we can trick Sabean into trading us Winn for Podsednik?

He's better defensively too.

[CWSGuy406]

Ok, stat-geeks, put your calculators away for 10 minutes and take a step back.  Look at the bigger picture of "how do you build a team" and "how do you fit pieces together"...

 

Chill out there, tough guy. I wanted a better something to base my defensive comparison on. I'd say they're equal on defense. They're ZR is damn close, Furcal getting the edge by eight percentage points.

 

Ok, how I build a baseball team and put pieces together -- well, I know that it's not going to start with giving an average hitter $10 million bucks, regardless of his defensive contributions. And, when I have a guy who is just as good defensively there already, for what will be $6 million (and change) less, then I'll look to improve elsewhere.

 

It's not a one-to-one comparison when comparing a demon on the base-paths as a #2 hitter to Uribe, who doesn't steal, get on base, or provide you with anything you can build around except for defense, of which Furcal is his equal.

 

Uribe isn't just defense. I certainly don't expect Uribe to be as good as he was this September, but I also don't expect the lows that we saw from him for most of the season before it. He hit 16 homers this year, and 26 x-tra basehits that weren't homers. Granted, Furcal had more -- he is a better hitter than Uribe is. I just think there's better things to do with that $10 million -- such as, giving that money to Brian Giles for two years.

 

Tough call.  I think it is, others may not, but it's not the 10 million dollar difference some are making it out to be.

 

Fair enough.

 

Putting it all together, I think that:

 

a.) For the time being, Uribe is a capable everyday SS; and at a good price.

 

b.) I think the $10 million can be better spent elsewhere, like third-base, or 1B/RF, depending upon the Konerko situation.

[Randar68]

He's better defensively too.

 

 

Way to address the topic and questions you left unanswered... :rolly

[GoodAsGould]

Furcal is a defensive upgrade... id say more range and better arm although not by much in both spots but on offense he is much better... He has hit HR's while in a pitchers park so at the Cell he should hit 4-5 more... and he can probably steal 40-50 bases with us 2.... Him and Pods doing that could be lethal.

[ZoomSlowik]

I still say that the whole Furcal situation looks an awful lot like the Cabrera situation last year. Is he a solid player? Yes. Is he an upgrade over Uribe? Yes. Is he worth more than $8 mil a year? No way. Check out my post a while back concerning Furcal's hitting outside of Turner Field and his defense before this season. I've probably posted it twice, but no one seems to care or respond to the points. Spending that kind of money at SS would also seriously hinder our ability to upgrade elsewhere, and might hinder our ability to resign Paulie. Unloading roughly $6 mil (I think?) in Hernandez and Marte would help, as will buying out Frank, but the raises we'll need will cut into that. There's no way we can afford to resign Paulie, upgrade at DH, and sign Furcal. The last of those should clearly be the lowest priority of the group. Plus, we'd have to do something with Uribe, since he'd be a fairly expensive backup.

Edited October 13, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[GoodAsGould]

Cabrera has never been the offensive player Furcal is and while he can steal some bases not nearly as much as Furcal....Also Cabrera is older 2 and has been "potential" the whole time.

[ZoomSlowik]

Cabrera has never been the offensive player Furcal is and while he can steal some bases not nearly as much as Furcal....Also Cabrera is older 2 and has been "potential" the whole time.

 

So he's worth $10 mil a year because he's better than Cabrera? That's not exactly the greatest logic. I know he's better than Cabrera, I didn't argue that. I argued that he wasn't worth what he was going to get. As I said a while ago, he's had 24, 27, and 31 errors the 3 years before this, and only once in the last 4 seasons has he hit over .270 on the road (.246 this year). If he were getting 7 or 8 million or we had a massive hole at SS, I wouldn't be against it. But he's going to get at least $9 mil and Uribe is decent. I'd much rather spend that extra $6 mil in an effort to resign Paulie, or towards getting a real impact hitter like Thome, Delgado, Giles, or some of the numerous others we've mentioned.

[GoodAsGould]

The thing is Furcal is a real impact player because of the fact he steals so much. The first half of the season when Pods was giving all those pitchers fits do you remember that. He was the MVP on offense for the 1st half of the season. Now imagine another player like that both on the top of the order...

[Frankensteiner]

My interest in signing Furcal basically depends on our overall payroll and our ability to secure legitimate #3 and #4 hitters. If we have money to burn AFTER those needs are met, then he'd be a good addition, even if he is overpaid.

[southsider2k5]

My interest in signing Furcal basically depends on our overall payroll and our ability to secure legitimate #3 and #4 hitters. If we have money to burn AFTER those needs are met, then he'd be a good addition, even if he is overpaid.

 

We are not going to spend that much money this year. If we secure a #3 and #4 hitter, we are looking at least a $15 million increase over last year, right away. Once you figure in raises and the like for existing players, that takes us to $90 million right away.

[BlackBetsy]

We are not going to spend that much money this year.  If we secure a #3 and #4 hitter, we are looking at least a $15 million increase over last year, right away.  Once you figure in raises and the like for existing players, that takes us to $90 million right away.

I think Paulie is the #4 hitter next year, and he'll be in line for a $2-$3 million raise only. ($10-$11 million)

 

A fair amount of money will come off the books in 2006 - Everett ($4m), Thomas ($8m), such that the Sox can get a #3 hitter and stay roughly even with 2005.

 

Mind you, I can also see the Sox giving Big Frank a 1-year, $6 million deal. Reinsdorf loves Frank, and will want to keep him if it makes sense. Frank was a very good citizen this year, too. They'll owe him $3.5 million from buy out, so it'll cost the Sox only $2.5 million. If Frank is healthy, he'd still be the most dangerous hitter on the Sox, even if he declines to .265/.370/.550.

 

Not sure who else would sign Frank; in the AL (Frank can only play DH at this point), the Yankees are set on DH with Giambi, and the Red Sox with Big Papi. I guess the Angels are one option (close to Frank's Vegas home), but everyone else is too cheap to dish out the $5 million it'll take to risk on Frank.

[YASNY]

I think Paulie is the #4 hitter next year, and he'll be in line for a $2-$3 million raise only.  ($10-$11 million)

 

A fair amount of money will come off the books in 2006 - Everett ($4m), Thomas ($8m), such that the Sox can get a #3 hitter and stay roughly even with 2005.

 

Mind you, I can also see the Sox giving Big Frank a 1-year, $6 million deal.  Reinsdorf loves Frank, and will want to keep him if it makes sense.  Frank was a very good citizen this year, too.  They'll owe him $3.5 million from buy out, so it'll cost the Sox only $2.5 million.  If Frank is healthy, he'd still be the most dangerous hitter on the Sox, even if he declines to .265/.370/.550.

 

Not sure who else would sign Frank; in the AL (Frank can only play DH at this point), the Yankees are set on DH with Giambi, and the Red Sox with Big Papi.  I guess the Angels are one option (close to Frank's Vegas home), but everyone else is too cheap to dish out the $5 million it'll take to risk on Frank.

 

If they sign Frank to a $6M contract after the buyout, it'll only cost them .... $6M.

Edited October 13, 2005 by YASNY

[Balta1701]

I think Paulie is the #4 hitter next year, and he'll be in line for a $2-$3 million raise only.  ($10-$11 million)

With the way the free agent crop looks this year...someone will offer Paulie 4 years, $50 million plus. Anaheim needs a bat and a 1b. Ditto the Dodgers. Toronto has money to spend. So do several other teams.

[Randar68]

With the way the free agent crop looks this year...someone will offer Paulie 4 years, $50 million plus.  Anaheim needs a bat and a 1b.  Ditto the Dodgers.  Toronto has money to spend.  So do several other teams.

 

Unless the Sox sign him before he hits the open market.

 

Also, please stop posting about Furcal being 10 million dollars straight up. Uribe has a considerable amount of cash coming his way in the next 2-3 years as well, and signing Furcal would surely lead to trading Uribe, who has real value, could probably really help you land a guy like Delgado (Fla is short a SS next year) or possibly Thome.

 

Guys can be good home/away players because of their surroundings at those places, and there's certainly nothing about Turner field that would seem to indicate it giving him some Coors' Field-like advantage. Freddie or Mark B's home and away splits for example... does that make them not worth what they are making?

 

All the raises, resigning Pauly, and resigning Frank to something reasonable would put us back to where we are at today, approximately...

 

You trade El Duque, Marte, Uribe, and now you have another 10 million to mess with, in addition to whatever payroll increase you're willing commit (which I think we'll be around 85 million next year)...

[Randar68]

I still say that the whole Furcal situation looks an awful lot like the Cabrera situation last year. Is he a solid player? Yes. Is he an upgrade over Uribe? Yes. Is he worth more than $8 mil a year? No way. Check out my post a while back concerning Furcal's hitting outside of Turner Field and his defense before this season. I've probably posted it twice, but no one seems to care or respond to the points.

 

So home/away splits don't carry over? They wouldn't benefit the Sox the same way? What is it about Turner Field that makes it unlikely that moving to a MORE hitter-friendly park is going to negate?

 

Obviously they would have to trade Uribe if they signed Furcal, but Uribe has legit value in the market, is a good commodity if you wish to make a trade. You also have to look beyond 1-year payroll bubbles and consider the fact that Contreras and Dye have expiring contracts after 2006 (IIRC). Frank would also likely only be resigned if it is short-term and-or incentive-laden... trade El Duque and Marte, more money freed up...

 

You can commit to some long-term money here, especially if guys you acquire have slightly back-loaded deals... (could structure Pauly's deal that way if need be)...

 

In short, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider adding Furcal and a DH in addition to Pauly, or at the very least, the equivalent in that salary total. And remember, if you're swapping Uribe for a 9 million dollar Furcal, you're making ~5 million a year in additional investment to turn a #8 or #9 hitter into a legit #2 hitter who is a sparkplug. (also allows you to trade Pods in a year or 2 if Jerry Owens is ready to assume that role, easing that transition)

Edited October 13, 2005 by Randar68

[ZoomSlowik]

Unless the Sox sign him before he hits the open market.

 

Also, please stop posting about Furcal being 10 million dollars straight up.  Uribe has a considerable amount of cash coming his way in the next 2-3 years as well, and signing Furcal would surely lead to trading Uribe, who has real value, could probably really help you land a guy like Delgado (Fla is short a SS next year) or possibly Thome.

 

Guys can be good home/away players because of their surroundings at those places, and there's certainly nothing about Turner field that would seem to indicate it giving him some Coors' Field-like advantage.  Freddie or Mark B's home and away splits for example...  does that make them not worth what they are making?

 

All the raises, resigning Pauly, and resigning Frank to something reasonable would put us back to where we are at today, approximately...

 

You trade El Duque, Marte, Uribe, and now you have another 10 million to mess with, in addition to whatever payroll increase you're willing commit (which I think we'll be around 85 million next year)...

 

Why would Philly have any need for Uribe? They already have Rollins and Utley up the middle, and Uribe doesn't fit that well as a 3B.

 

The point with Furcal's home/away splits is that there is a vast difference between them, and when you're changing the park where a player is going to play half of their games, you have to take it into consideration. Mark and Freddy aren't changing parks, so it isn't an issue. If Furcal were a slugger that was going to be hitting a ton of balls over the fence, then our park would be a benefit. However, he's more of a slap hitter with occasional power, meaning he could use as much space to drop in hits as he could get. There isn't as much room in our park. Even assuming there were no dropoff in his average, which the splits indicate there could be, he's still a career .284 hitter. That's not exactly what we need from what would be our key FA acquisition.

 

You're also assuming all of those deals at the end when they won't necessarily happen, and you're doing the math without factoring in how much Furcal will make. You're also state that resigning Paulie wouldn't increase our payroll beyond it's current point, which is obviously not the case. How would it stay the same if he goes from making $8.75 mil to $11 or $12 mil, even without adding in raises for the other guys on our roster? Unless our payroll increases dramatically, we're not going to be able to keep Paulie, improve at DH, and get Furcal. Spending that much money on a guy that is basically going to be Scott Podsednik with a little more pop just doesn't make sense, especially when there probably wouldn't be anyone to drive him in the 3 and 4 holes. We need another legit RBI guy, not another speedy player that depends on others to drive him in.

[3E8]

Anyone think we have a realistic chance of making Dunn a member of this team next year?

[BlackBetsy]

If they sign Frank to a $6M contract after the buyout, it'll only cost them .... $6M.

 

I was suggesting they sign him to $6 million in lieu of the buyout - i.e., a functional $2.5 million contract.

 

I'm not sure what Frank's free agent value is on the market. He's played about 100 games in the last two years and next year is his age 38 season. Interesting to see what offers he would get.

[ZoomSlowik]

So home/away splits don't carry over?  They wouldn't benefit the Sox the same way?  What is it about Turner Field that makes it unlikely that moving to a MORE hitter-friendly park is going to negate?

 

Obviously they would have to trade Uribe if they signed Furcal, but Uribe has legit value in the market, is a good commodity if you wish to make a trade.  You also have to look beyond 1-year payroll bubbles and consider the fact that Contreras and Dye have expiring contracts after 2006 (IIRC).  Frank would also likely only be resigned if it is short-term and-or incentive-laden... trade El Duque and Marte, more money freed up...

 

You can commit to some long-term money here, especially if guys you acquire have slightly back-loaded deals... (could structure Pauly's deal that way if need be)...

 

In short, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider adding Furcal and a DH in addition to Pauly, or at the very least, the equivalent in that salary total.  And remember, if you're swapping Uribe for a 9 million dollar Furcal, you're making ~5 million a year in additional investment to turn a #8 or #9 hitter into a legit #2 hitter who is a sparkplug.  (also allows you to trade Pods in a year or 2 if Jerry Owens is ready to assume that role, easing that transition)

 

US Cellular Field is only a more hitter friendly park for power hitters. In terms of hits, it's one of the worst. So is Turner Field, but Furcal has consistently hit much better in that park than on the road, which means there is clearly something that Furcal likes about that park. The stats don't provide the evidence, but it seems to me that whatever team comes in doesn't have Andruw Jones in center to cover all that ground, meaning it's easier for him to drop in hits.

 

You keep mentioning guys coming off the payroll and guys we could deal, but don't you think that we might want to keep some of these guys? Wouldn't we probably want to keep Contreras and Dye beyond the coming season? While we're at it, don't you think we'd want to try to keep Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland when their contracts are up? None of them will be cheap, and I'd probably only want to keep Furcal over Dye for sure. Plus these players that you keep mentioning us trading for with all of the newly expendable players are going to result in fairly large committments, especially if it's Delgado and Thome. Plus, what if guys like Anderson, Young, Owens, or whoever else don't pan out? A very small percentage of minor leaguers become solid contributors at the major league level. If one or all of these guys pull a Borchard and don't perform like we think they will, that's another major hole we'd have to fill. Remember how much more flexibility we had when we dealt Lee for Pods? It's the same kind of thing with Furcal, only in reverse. Yes, Lee would have a bigger impact on our lineup than Pods does. But does Lee have a bigger impact than Pods, Iguchi, and Pierzynski? I don't think so. Furcal is a large financial commitment that simply wouldn't have as big an impact on our team as some other guys we could get. There's simply no way we can keep Paulie and add two more expensive players without a much larger committment to our payroll.

[Randar68]

How would it stay the same if he goes from making $8.75 mil to $11 or $12 mil, even without adding in raises for the other guys on our roster? Unless our payroll increases dramatically, we're not going to be able to keep Paulie, improve at DH, and get Furcal. Spending that much money on a guy that is basically going to be Scott Podsednik with a little more pop just doesn't make sense, especially when there probably wouldn't be anyone to drive him in the 3 and 4 holes. We need another legit RBI guy, not another speedy player that depends on others to drive him in.

 

1) We lose a significant chunk of contracts this offseason which is how Pauly's 2 million dollar rasie doesn't add payroll when other things are considered.

 

Shingo's salary (2.5 million)

Carl's salary ( 4 million)

Frank's salary (8 million)

Timo + Blum = ~ 1.55 million

Ben Davis something like 1-2 million

 

have you read this thread where that has been detailed?

 

Now, if you trade Marte, El Duque and Uribe, you clear another

 

El Duque's 2006 salary will be about 5 million based on escalator based on incentive with another 2 million in possible incentive... for this, we'll just call it 5, and the team may have to eat some of it to deal him (or include him with prospects or exchanging money in a deal)...

 

Marte will make 2.25 million in 2006.

 

Uribe will make 3.15M in 2006 and 4.15M in 2007 with a 5M option for 2008.

 

That's over 10 million dollars in additional salary clearance, in addition to what I am projecting as 10 million in increased payroll (based on KW statements that JR had given him additional money that he had available on the order of ~ 5 million plus playoff revenues and projected increases in season ticket sales.

 

So, my plan is based on resigning Pauly and giving the slated raises and ending up where we are today. Then signing Furcal, trading Marte/ElDuque/Uribe to acquire that DH... in one or multiple deals that may also have to include prospects...

 

Why is this so far-fetched in your mind? What part doesn't mesh with reality? (I understand El Duque's salary isn't all that attractive to a team to take it on, but it's all short-term money, not long-term commitment)

[BlackBetsy]

Anyone think we have a realistic chance of making Dunn a member of this team next year?

 

I'd say no for two reasons:

 

(1) The "Where would he play?" problem. He'd half to play LF, and Kenny and Ozzie think that Podsednik was the reason they won 99 games, instead of Garland (improvement), Contreras (improvement) and El Duque (passable 5th starter). There's no room for him in the OF.

 

(2) Dunn got into it with the manager in Cincy, and also strikes out a whole bunch. Not quite in the Ozzie/Kenny "smart ball", "grinder" mold.

 

Would I replace Podsednik with Dunn? Every day and twice on Sunday. I'd probably have Iguchi or Rowand lead off (with the other one take the #2 hole), hit Konerko third, and let Dunn clear the decks from the cleanup spot.