Statistically how to beat Manny and Ortiz

[joeynach]

For all those with an ESPN Insider account this link is very interesting. It basically shows all the numbers for how Ortiz and Manny hit. Where they are hot, where they are not, what theeir BA's are against different types of pitches, etc.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/insider?playerId=3748

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/insider?playerId=2974

 

For Ortiz hes a .329 hitter against fastballs and .380 against curveballs. Hes a .213 against sliders and .239 against change ups. His hot zones are middle-middle, middle-away, and up-in. His highest chase zones are middle way in and middle way down.

 

For Manny hes a .293 hitter against fastballs and .194 against curveballs. Hes a .265 hitter against sliders and .257 against changeups. His hot zones are basically everything middle of plate from in to out. His highest chase zones are middle way up and middle way down (kinda dangerous).

 

 

This is called scouting report information and should be complacent and drilled into every pitcher of the sox clubhouse immediatly and thourougly. We know the matchups, all thats left is to execute like professionals. Lets do it.

 

GO SOX!!

[daa84]

im not even joking, if we are winning by a large amount in game 1 i want to see bobby buzz the tower on ortiz. im not sayin hit him, but this guy leans out over the plate on pitches outside and likes to yank em. the key to beating him is dont let him get relaxed, keep his feet moving. a little chin music to set a tone

[AnthraxFan93]

im not even joking, if we are winning by a large amount in game 1 i want to see bobby buzz the tower on ortiz. im not sayin hit him, but this guy leans out over the plate on pitches outside and likes to yank em. the key to beating him is dont let him get relaxed, keep his feet moving. a little chin music to set a tone

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I disagree; if we are winning big that might wake up the Red Sox..

[Heads22]

Does this mean lots o splitters? I would tend to think so.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

I just hope that Jose remembers to use all of his pitches.

[illinilaw08]

For all those with an ESPN Insider account this link is very interesting.  It basically shows all the numbers for how Ortiz and Manny hit.  Where they are hot, where they are not, what theeir BA's are against different types of pitches, etc.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/insider?playerId=3748

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/insider?playerId=2974

 

For Ortiz hes a .329 hitter against fastballs and .380 against curveballs.  Hes a .213 against sliders and .239 against change ups.    His hot zones are middle-middle, middle-away, and up-in.  His highest chase zones are middle way in and middle way down.

 

For Manny hes a .293 hitter against fastballs and .194 against curveballs.  Hes a .265 hitter against sliders and .257 against changeups.  His hot zones are basically everything middle of plate from in to out.  His highest chase zones are middle way up and middle way down (kinda dangerous).

This is called scouting report information and should be complacent and drilled into every pitcher of the sox clubhouse immediatly and thourougly.  We know the matchups, all thats left is to execute like professionals.  Lets do it.

 

GO SOX!!

 

Very good stuff. Those two guys are incredibly dangerous, but I'm sure the staff is doing their homework. The key IMO is for Count to keep Damon and Renteria off base so he can avoid any situation favorable to those two hitters. Also, I think late in games Manny can be pitched to more easily than Ortiz who absolutely terrifies me. GO SOX 3 P.M tomorrow cannot get here quickly enough.

[Reddy]

this is important stuff.

 

we are better than the sawks in EVERY category in my mind except for their middle of the order. if we can find a way to keep the damage from them down a bit, we should be fine. that is if our starters perform the way we all know they're capable. that still worries me a bit, but i'll go with gammons on this and say Sox in 4 if we can effectively pitch to the heart of their order

[KipWellsFan]

im not even joking, if we are winning by a large amount in game 1 i want to see bobby buzz the tower on ortiz. im not sayin hit him, but this guy leans out over the plate on pitches outside and likes to yank em. the key to beating him is dont let him get relaxed, keep his feet moving. a little chin music to set a tone

 

If you're not going to actually hit him what does it matter if we are way up in the game or not.

[qwerty]

If you're not going to actually hit him what does it matter if we are way up in the game or not.

 

Try and brush him off the plate some.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(Reddy @ Oct 3, 2005 -> 08:00 PM)

this is important stuff.

 

we are better than the sawks in EVERY category in my mind except for their middle of the order.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The Red Sox offense has been the best in baseball, the White Sox has been the third worst.

 

The Red Sox pitching rotation is vastly underrated and has alot of experience with David Wells and Curt Schilling at the top.

 

The White Sox have a much better bullpen, the Red Sox have more depth offensively.

 

It's virtually high powered offense versus high powered pitching staff; usually pitching wins, but we shall see. Good luck.

[iWiN4PreP]

perfectly put redandwhite

[AirScott]

The Red Sox offense has been the best in baseball, the White Sox has been the third worst.

 

The Red Sox pitching rotation is vastly underrated and has alot of experience with David Wells and Curt Schilling at the top.

 

The White Sox have a much better bullpen, the Red Sox have more depth offensively.

 

It's virtually high powered offense versus high powered pitching staff;  usually pitching wins, but we shall see.  Good luck.

as of right now, if I were Francona the only guy I would have confidence in throwing out there is Schilling, because he lives for this and he pitched well yesterday. you can't call a pitching staff underrated when none of those starters has an ERA below 4.15.

[Wong & Owens]

The Red Sox pitching rotation is vastly underrated and has alot of experience with David Wells and Curt Schilling at the top.

 

No it's not. Experience is nice and all, but there is no amount of experience that can compensate for an aging, broken-down body. The WS have teed off on Schilling this year, and Wells scares no one. If anything, they're overrated based on name recognition. Clement has almost a 6.00 ERA in the second half, and his postseason ERA is also near 6.00. Wakefield is always a threat to get bombarded by the third inning, and the most consistent guy isnt even getting a start(Arroyo). Plus, only Wakefield has the ability to go deep in games, so that bullpen is coming out-- no matter how good the starters pitch.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(AirScott @ Oct 3, 2005 -> 08:56 PM)

as of right now, if I were Francona the only guy I would have confidence in throwing out there is Schilling, because he lives for this and he pitched well yesterday.  you can't call a pitching staff underrated when none of those starters has an ERA below 4.15.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wakefield, Wells aren't big game pitchers? Clement is a very inconsistent pitcher, but when he's on, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[jackie hayes]

I just hope that Jose remembers to use all of his pitches.

^^^^^^^^ That.

 

To the extent it matters, I think AJ will know hitters' weaknesses. The pitchers just have to keep doing what they've been doing, no extra study time. You don't want Jose especially trying to get cute.

[Balta1701]

The Red Sox offense has been the best in baseball, the White Sox has been the third worst.

 

The Red Sox pitching rotation is vastly underrated and has alot of experience with David Wells and Curt Schilling at the top.

 

The White Sox have a much better bullpen, the Red Sox have more depth offensively.

 

It's virtually high powered offense versus high powered pitching staff;  usually pitching wins, but we shall see.  Good luck.

How do you judge us to be the third worst offense, exactly? I believe we finished the season 13th in MLB in runs scored, and while we were 9th in the AL...that's at worst the 5th worst in that league. Yeah, our batting average sucks, but batting average doesn't define an entire offense.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(Wong & Owens @ Oct 3, 2005 -> 08:56 PM)

No it's not.  Experience is nice and all, but there is no amount of experience that can compensate for an aging, broken-down body.  The WS have teed off on Schilling this year, and Wells scares no one.  If anything, they're overrated based on name recognition.  Clement has almost a 6.00 ERA in the second half, and his postseason ERA is also near 6.00.  Wakefield is always a threat to get bombarded by the third inning, and the most consistent guy isnt even getting a start(Arroyo).  Plus, only Wakefield has the ability to go deep in games, so that bullpen is coming out-- no matter how good the starters pitch.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The White Sox "teed" off on Schilling when he was first starting his comeback trail. He still isn't 100%, but he's gained some of that arm strength back, and I can't imagine him being any short of spectacular when he's on the mound.

 

As for Wells, he had 15 wins, averaged just about a half inning less per game than Mark Buehrle, the IP leader, and has performed well at times this year. Clement has never been the same since being hit in the face in Tampa, but i find it hard to believe he'll be his second half self tommorow.

 

and Wakefield being bombarded by the third? He surely s*** the bed saturday, but he has been a Red Sox legend, and has stepped up in big games more than anyone.

 

The rotation is in shambles, it would seem, but I am not worried.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2005 -> 09:04 PM)

How do you judge us to be the third worst offense, exactly?  I believe we finished the season 13th in MLB in runs scored, and while we were 9th in the AL...that's at worst the 5th worst in that league.  Yeah, our batting average sucks, but batting average doesn't define an entire offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

11th in batting average and on-base percentage. When I look at a team as a whole, I value batting average far higher than I would for an individual player. Whatever floats your boat, I guess.

[Antonio Osuna]

Only fools underestimate Wakefield.

 

Historically (and this has been less true in 2005 than before, but still is) there are two types of pitchers that give us fits:

 

1) guys making their MLB debut or who we haven't seen before

2) older guys who throw junk

 

We beat Wakefield at home this season, but he's given us fits before. And he absolutely is a "big game pitcher" in that he's better when it counts.

 

Also, Clement's postseason ERA is, iirc, entirely from 2003. He's improved since then.

[hammerhead johnson]

How do you judge us to be the third worst offense, exactly?  I believe we finished the season 13th in MLB in runs scored, and while we were 9th in the AL...that's at worst the 5th worst in that league.  Yeah, our batting average sucks, but batting average doesn't define an entire offense.

 

 

Take a look at where we rank in these categories when you get a chance:

 

Team OBP

Team SLG

Team OPS

AVG w/ RISP

SB % (worst in the AL)

Hits

Doubles

 

If you think this is merely a discussion in regards to straight-up batting average rankings, you are mistaken.

 

We are easily a bottom 5 offense in all of the MLB. There is no argument.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(hammerhead johnson @ Oct 3, 2005 -> 09:11 PM)

Take a look at where we rank in these categories when you get a chance:

 

Team OBP

Team SLG

Team OPS

AVG w/ RISP

SB % (worst in the AL)

Hits

Doubles

 

If you think this is merely a discussion in regards to straight-up batting average rankings, you are mistaken.

 

We are easily a bottom 5 offense in all of the MLB.  There is no argument.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Great post, I agree.

[jackie hayes]

We beat Wakefield at home this season, but he's given us fits before. And he absolutely is a "big game pitcher" in that he's better when it counts.

I dunno. Wakefield's a good pitcher, but I don't see how he can reach in and get that little bit extra. What's he gonna do, make the ball rotate less than not at all? Make the wind swirl more? Add 2 mph to his fastball?

[hammerhead johnson]

I should clarify that our SB% is the worst in the AL for teams with 100 or more chances. That's basically 8 or 9 teams altogether, and our success rate is about 67%.

[witesoxfan]

The Red Sox offense has been the best in baseball, the White Sox has been the third worst.

 

The Red Sox pitching rotation is vastly underrated and has alot of experience with David Wells and Curt Schilling at the top.

 

The White Sox have a much better bullpen, the Red Sox have more depth offensively.

 

It's virtually high powered offense versus high powered pitching staff;  usually pitching wins, but we shall see.  Good luck.

 

Playoff experience is overrated itself...a lack of it is not the end of the world, as seen by the 2002 playoffs where 2 the two teams that were in the ALCS were in their first playoffs since 91(Minnesota) and 86(Angels), while knocking off teams that had made the playoffs 3 straight years(Athletics) and 8 straight years(Yankees). So you can't say a pitching staff is underrated using an overrated variable.

 

Regarding the offense...if you are talking about average, which the Sox are tied for 3rd worst in, then you are making a complete assinine assertion. Average is one of the most overrated stats you can use when judging a team's offense. A team can hit .220 and still put up a team .800 OPS and still score 800 runs. They had the 6th lowest total for runs, 4th most homers, 4th worst team OBP, and tied for 7th best team SLG%. It looks a hell of a lot more like a mediocre offense to me, not the 3rd worst in the majors. They also had probably the second best overall pitching staff in the AL...they tied Cleveland for the team ERA title, but had fewer K's, allowed more hits and more walks, thus equaling a worse WHIP.

 

If Ramirez and Ortiz don't destroy the Sox, this series should easily go to the White Sox.

[JUGGERNAUT]

If we keep Ortiz & Manny away from RISP sits & we should win.

 

Take a look at the scores of games that BOS lost down the stretch:

July:

Thu. 14 NY Yankees L 8-6

Sat. 16 NY Yankees L 7-4

Sun. 17 NY Yankees L 5-3

Mon. 18 Tampa Bay L 3-1

Fri. 22 at Chicago Sox L 8-4

Sun. 24 at Chicago Sox L 6-4

Mon. 25 at Tampa Bay L 4-3

Aug:

Fri. 5 at Minnesota L 12-0

Sat. 6 at Minnesota L 4-3

Mon. 15 at Detroit L 7-6

Wed. 17 at Detroit L 6-5

Thu. 18 at LA Angels L 13-4

Sat. 20 at LA Angels L 4-2

Wed. 24 at Kansas City L 4-3

Thu. 25 at Kansas City L 7-4

Sat. 27 Detroit L 12-8

Sept:

Fri. 2 Baltimore L 7-3

Mon. 5 Chicago Sox L 5-3

Thu. 8 LA Angels L 3-0

Fri. 9 at NY Yankees L 8-4

Sun. 11 at NY Yankees L 1-0

Tue. 13 at Toronto L 9-3

Thu. 15 Oakland L 6-2

Sun. 18 Oakland L 12-3

Mon. 19 at Tampa Bay L 8-7

Wed. 21 at Tampa Bay L 7-4

Tue. 27 Toronto L 7-5

Wed. 28 Toronto L 7-2

Oct

Sat. 1 NY Yankees L 8-4

 

Most of their loses come when the opposition scores 6+R. We've only lost 4 times in the 2nd half when we've score 6+R.