Statistically how to beat Manny and Ortiz

[hammerhead johnson]

Regarding the offense...if you are talking about average, which the Sox are tied for 3rd worst in, then you are making a complete assinine assertion.  Average is one of the most overrated stats you can use when judging a team's offense.  A team can hit .220 and still put up a team .800 OPS and still score 800 runs.

 

I hear that. Texas didn't even hit .270 as a team, but I'll be damned if they aren't a Top 5 offense in the majors. I'll be damned.

 

And I won't base an argument on exceptions. This s*** happens all the time.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Clement 2005 Decision, IP, H, R

Apr. 5 @NYY L 4-3 4.1 5 3

Apr. 10 @TOR L 4-3 6.0 6 3

Apr. 16 TB W 6-2 7.0 7 1

Apr. 21 @BAL W 1-0 8.0 8 0

Apr. 26 BAL L 11-8 5.2 12 7

May. 1 @TEX W 6-5 6.0 4 3

May. 6 SEA W 7-2 7.0 5 1

May. 11 OAK W 6-5 7.0 5 1

May. 17 @OAK W 7-5 6.2 6 5

May. 22 ATL W 5-2 9.0 4 2

May. 28 @NYY W 17-1 6.0 5 0

Jun. 2 BAL W 6-4 6.0 6 3

Jun. 7 @STL L 9-2 4.0 7 7

Jun. 13 CIN W 10-3 8.0 6 3

Jun. 19 PIT W 8-0 7.0 3 0

Jun. 25 @PHI W 7-1 7.0 7 1

 

Jul. 1 TOR L 15-2 6.2 8 8

Jul. 6 @TEX W 7-4 9.2 9 4

Jul. 16 NYY L 7-4 3.2 5 6

Jul. 21 @CWS W 6-5 6.0 6 4

Jul. 26 @TB W 10-9 2.1 4 3

Aug. 4 KC W 11-9 5.0 5 6

Aug. 9 TEX W 8-7 6.0 6 2

Aug. 19 @LAA W 4-3 7.0 6 1

Aug. 24 @KC L 4-3 7.0 6 3

Aug. 29 TB W 10-6 5.0 3 1

Sep. 3 BAL W 7-6 8.0 6 4

Sep. 8 LAA L 3-0 7.2 6 3

Sep. 13 @TOR L 9-3 6.0 6 6

Sep. 18 OAK L 12-3 1.1 8 7

Sep. 24 @BAL W 4-3 6.0 4 0

Sep. 29 TOR W 5-4 5.0 8 4

 

It looks like the league for the most part figured him out in the 2nd 1/2.

[Wong & Owens]

The White Sox "teed" off on Schilling when he was first starting his comeback trail.  He still isn't 100%, but he's gained some of that arm strength back, and I can't imagine him being any short of spectacular when he's on the mound.

 

As for Wells, he had 15 wins, averaged just about a half inning less per game than Mark Buehrle, the IP leader, and has performed well at times this year.  Clement has never been the same since being hit in the face in Tampa, but i find it hard to believe he'll be his second half self tommorow.

 

and Wakefield being bombarded by the third?  He surely s*** the bed saturday, but he has been a Red Sox legend, and has stepped up in big games more than anyone.

 

The rotation is in shambles, it would seem, but I am not worried.

 

That's alot of hoping and speculating that goes contrary to what has been reality for the Boston pitching staff.

 

Wakefield steps up in big games? Maybe a few times, but he's certainly not anything I'd call a money pitcher. His postseason numbers:

 

8 Postseason Ser 4-4 15 8 6.07 5-4 0 2 0 59.3 51 40 33 41

[JUGGERNAUT]

How good has Contreras been down the stretch?

Decision, IP, H, R

Apr. 7 CLE L 11-5 6.0 4 1

Apr. 13 @CLE W 5-4 7.2 5 4

Apr. 18 MIN W 5-4 5.2 6 3

Apr. 23 @KC W 3-2 3.1 1 1

Apr. 29 DET L 3-2 6.0 3 1

May. 5 KC W 2-1 8.0 4 1

May. 10 @TB L 7-6 5.0 5 4

May. 15 BAL L 6-2 6.1 7 5

May. 21 @CHC W 5-3 7.0 4 1

May. 26 @LAA L 3-2 7.0 4 3

Jun. 1 LAA L 10-7 6.0 5 4

Jun. 7 @COL W 2-1 6.0 5 1

Jun. 13 ARI L 8-1 6.0 9 8

Jun. 19 LAD W 4-3 7.2 6 3

Jun. 25 CHC L 6-2 6.1 8 6

 

Jul. 1 @OAK L 6-2 4.1 4 4

Jul. 6 TB W 7-2 6.0 6 2

Jul. 14 @CLE W 1-0 7.0 3 0

Jul. 19 DET L 7-1 6.2 8 7

Jul. 24 BOS W 6-4 6.2 8 3

Jul. 30 @BAL W 9-6 6.0 6 6

Aug. 4 TOR W 5-4 5.0 5 3

Aug. 9 @NYY W 2-1 7.0 3 0

Aug. 15 MIN L 4-2 7.2 8 4

Aug. 21 NYY W 6-2 8.0 11 2

Aug. 27 @SEA W 4-3 7.0 5 3

Sep. 1 DET W 12-3 7.0 5 3

Sep. 7 KC W 1-0 8.2 6 0

Sep. 13 @KC W 6-4 6.2 5 4

Sep. 18 @MIN W 2-1 8.0 5 1

Sep. 23 MIN W 3-1 9.0 6 1

Sep. 28 @DET W 8-2 8.0 7 2

 

He's been dominating down the stretch.

Edited October 3, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[JUGGERNAUT]

David Wells:

 

Decision, IP, H R

Apr. 3 @NYY L 9-2 4.1 10 4

Apr. 9 @TOR L 12-5 6.1 9 6

Apr. 15 TB W 10-0 7.0 6 0

Apr. 20 @BAL W 8-0 8.0 3 0

Apr. 25 BAL L 8-4 4.2 8 6

May. 18 @OAK L 13-6 1.1 9 7

May. 24 @TOR L 9-6 6.1 7 5

May. 29 @NYY W 7-2 8.1 6 2

Jun. 3 LAA W 7-4 7.0 9 4

Jun. 8 @STL W 4-0 8.0 4 0

Jun. 14 CIN W 7-0 7.0 1 0

Jun. 20 @CLE W 10-9 5.0 10 4

Jun. 26 @PHI W 12-8 5.0 10 5

 

Jul. 2 TOR W 6-4 7.2 9 4

Jul. 7 @BAL L 3-1 6.0 5 3

Jul. 15 NYY W 17-1 7.0 5 1

Jul. 20 TB W 9-4 7.0 6 2

Jul. 25 @TB L 4-3 6.1 9 3

Jul. 30 MIN W 6-2 7.0 7 2

Aug. 6 @MIN L 4-3 6.0 7 3

Aug. 12 CWS W 9-8 7.2 9 5

Aug. 17 @DET L 6-5 4.0 12 6

Aug. 23 @KC W 5-2 5.0 5 0

Aug. 28 DET W 11-3 7.0 9 3

Sep. 4 BAL W 5-1 9.0 7 1

Sep. 9 @NYY L 8-4 6.2 9 6

Sep. 14 @TOR W 5-3 7.0 7 3

Sep. 19 @TB L 8-7 3.2 10 4

Sep. 25 @BAL W 9-3 7.2 6 3

Sep. 30 NYY W 5-3 7.0 6 3

 

He's their best pitcher right now. Mark will have to pitch his best.

[qwerty]

Jugger, you know you could just link people to game logs right?

[Balta1701]

If we keep Ortiz & Manny away from RISP sits & we should win. 

And taking home the "Easier said than done" trophy...to go along with his earlier win for "Most obvious statement in human history"...Juggernaut!!!

[JUGGERNAUT]

Jugger, you know you could just link people to game logs right?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Not as condensed.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Not as condensed.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Pit...=0&PlayerID=855

[JUGGERNAUT]

I think some of you are over-estimating Ortiz & Ramirez. Buying into that East Coast bias no doubt. The NYY's lost last year because Torre started Brown before El Duque. That meant he had to go to Brown twice in the series. Brown was horrible & severely depleted the NYY bullpen.

 

Ortiz in Sept: 13 gms 0 RBI, 9 gms 1 RBI, 3 gms 2 RBI, 2 gms 3 RBI, 2 gms 4 RBI

Ramirez in Sept: 15 gms 0 RBI, 6 gms 1 RBI, 4 gms 2 RBI, 3 gms 3 RBI

 

They are not copies of Barry Bonds. You can get them out. You can minimize their damage.

[southsider2k5]

Only fools underestimate Wakefield.

 

Historically (and this has been less true in 2005 than before, but still is) there are two types of pitchers that give us fits:

 

1) guys making their MLB debut or who we haven't seen before

2) older guys who throw junk

 

We beat Wakefield at home this season, but he's given us fits before. And he absolutely is a "big game pitcher" in that he's better when it counts.

 

Also, Clement's postseason ERA is, iirc, entirely from 2003. He's improved since then.

 

Actually the thing that intreagues me about Clement is his second half fades. This year he was 1-3 with an era of 6 in September. Last year he was 0-1 in Sept with a 7.36 era and was dropped from the rotation by the Cubs. 2003 he was 2-1 in Sept with a 4.45 era, but got murdered in the playoffs. His last 4 years totaled up he was 4-8 with an era of almost 6.

 

It almost makes me wonder if that heavy slider he throws beats up his arm worse than we know, and he doesn't have anything left by the time he gets over 200 innings pitched.

[LosMediasBlancas]

Useful scouting reports on Papi and Manny, but remember that you're talking about "Ozzie I-got-3-balls Montana" here. He'll manage us right into the eye of the hurricane.

[southsider2k5]

Actually the thing that intreagues me about Clement is his second half fades.  This year he was 1-3 with an era of 6 in September.  Last year he was 0-1 in Sept with a 7.36 era and was dropped from the rotation by the Cubs.  2003 he was 2-1 in Sept with a 4.45 era, but got murdered in the playoffs.  His last 4 years totaled up he was 4-8 with an era of almost 6.

 

It almost makes me wonder if that heavy slider he throws beats up his arm worse than we know, and he doesn't have anything left by the time he gets over 200 innings pitched.

 

After yesterday I feeling pretty damned good about this bit of analysis [pats self on back]

[YASNY]

Well, Redandwhite was right about one thing ...

 

As for Wells, he had 15 wins, averaged just about a half inning less per game than Mark Buehrle, the IP leader, and has performed well at times this year. Clement has never been the same since being hit in the face in Tampa, but i find it hard to believe he'll be his second half self tommorow.

 

Clement wasn't half as "good" as he's been in the second half.

[Wong & Owens]

Well, Redandwhite was right about one thing ...

Clement wasn't half as "good" as he's been in the second half.

 

 

I think Clement cemented his reputation as a guy that can NOT be counted on in pressure situations. I don't care what anyone says about him not having good stuff yesterday, you don't have 127 meetings at the mound in 2 innings unless you have one rattled pitcher out there.

[CanOfCorn]

I think yesterday's game pretty much told the rest of the pitching staff what to do with Ortiz and Manny.

 

Keep the ball down, throw first pitch strikes that are down, keep the ball down, and work fast.

 

After listening to Sutcliffe talk about how much faster Jose works now, I truly believe he threw Ortiz off his game. Jose is standing there, ready to get the sign and Ortiz is shuffling around, doing whatever he does, that's gotta be intimidating...especially looking at a 6' 4" 250 lb. guy staring at you, thinking, "I'm comin to getcha."

 

Maybe Ortiz doesn't get rattled by stuff like that, but it's got to be disconcerting.

BTW, Buehrle pitches fast.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(YASNY @ Oct 5, 2005 -> 04:10 PM)

Well, Redandwhite was right about one thing ...

Clement wasn't half as "good" as he's been in the second half.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What? I found it hard to believe in a playoff game that he would be as bad as he was. Now I believe it. So whats the big deal?

 

:headshake