DBAHO Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 12:53 AM) Dye has been injury prone in his career, and it wasnt just a freak accident. Why do you think we got him for such a bargain. There is no real proof that he will continue to play as well as he has, based on his career numbers and trends. He will not play 1B for us, and if anything he will be a DH in the future. He rejected more money from other teams (including Texas) to come here. What do you think this off-season if he was a FA, he would get in a weak market from a team desperate for a power bat. The Sox did their research and came up trumps on this one. Based on career numbers, Magglio Ordonez should have done a lot better than he did this season, but it depends on the situation, what park you're hitting in, which guys you have around you etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 09:57 AM) He rejected more money from other teams (including Texas) to come here. What do you think this off-season if he was a FA, he would get in a weak market from a team desperate for a power bat. The Sox did their research and came up trumps on this one. Based on career numbers, Magglio Ordonez should have done a lot better than he did this season, but it depends on the situation, what park you're hitting in, which guys you have around you etc. Maggs didnt play alot of the season. And still hit for a good avg. You cant use someone who had experimental surgery before a season in a debate like this. Dye is good, but there is a reason he surprised alot of baseball people with his durability and resurgence this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 09:24 AM) There is a serious hole in this entire thread. And its relying on Dye's production to continue at this pace. Do you all realize that this year was basically his most productive and healthy since he was in KC? 2004 137 games .265 23 80 2003 65 games .172 4 20 2002 131 games .252 24 86 2001 61 games .297 13 59 (Oak) 2000 157 games .321 33 118 (KC) there is no real trend of Dye being healthy. It was one of the reasons that he was let go from Oakland. He had one of his first real healty seasons this year. But according to his history, we shouldnt expect another season like this. That "serious hole" was mentioned in post #169 of this thread, thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 12:58 AM) Maggs didnt play alot of the season. And still hit for a good avg. You cant use someone who had experimental surgery before a season in a debate like this. Dye is good, but there is a reason he surprised alot of baseball people with his durability and resurgence this year. Maggs wasn't signed for more tham 10M a season to hit for a good AVG. 8 HR's in 82 games, not good enough. Even if he played in a full season with those numbers, Dye almost doubled his power production. Was always going to happen in Detroit's ballpark as well. And yeah perhaps that was the case with Dye, but the Sox had to take chances on guys like him in the off-season. But Dye comes from a terrible hitting park in Oakland, to a great hitting park in Chicago, and things were always going to turn around for him if he could stay healthy, which is what he did besides those nasty spider bites. Dye didn't have a really dehabiliting injury like Maggs anyway. And I know it ain't a good comparison, but still right now Dye for 4M vs. Maggs for 12M, shows what a shrewd move it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:02 AM) And I know it ain't a good comparison, but still right now Dye for 4M vs. Maggs for 12M, shows what a shrewd move it was. Im not saying Dye wasnt a good value over Maggs. You got way off topic. I am saying that based on Dye's numbers he is not going to keep up at this production and this durability. Edited October 11, 2005 by RockRaines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 01:04 AM) I am saying that based on Dye's numbers he is not going to keep up at this production and this durability. Ok well I'll say if he can stay healthy (which I think he'll do especially if he moves to 1st, and since he seems pretty healthy across the board right now), he should definitely post around the same numbers next season hitting in this ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:06 AM) Ok well I'll say if he can stay healthy (which I think he'll do especially if he moves to 1st, and since he seems pretty healthy across the board right now), he should definitely post around the same numbers next season hitting in this ballpark. I disagree that he will continue the same numbers. His career trends right now show this year as an outlier in the last 5. I think he will regress a bit. Not only that, but I think he is a terrible replacement for Konerko at 1B. And if this organization wants to pencil in a player that has 1 career game at 1B as their starter for next year, be prepared to be very angry with them. That is not a move that you make after a successful year like this. That is a Royals move and i would lose alot of confidence in our managment if we use a stopgap like that. There is no reason to hold the team together with duct tape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 01:09 AM) I disagree that he will continue the same numbers. His career trends right now show this year as an outlier in the last 5. I think he will regress a bit. Not only that, but I think he is a terrible replacement for Konerko at 1B. And if this organization wants to pencil in a player that has 1 career game at 1B as their starter for next year, be prepared to be very angry with them. That is not a move that you make after a successful year like this. That is a Royals move and i would lose alot of confidence in our managment if we use a stopgap like that. There is no reason to hold the team together with duct tape. Well if Konerko did leave, who would replace him at 1b? Unless you traded for a Chad Tracy or Lyle Overbay, no-one withing our organization is going to go near his power numbers than Jermaine Dye. As for your prediction, my thoughts are this. 4 out of those 5 years were spent in Oakland. He's hit 8 more HR's here in Chicago playing in a full season then he did in Oakland playing a full season. You have to look at just more than the career stats, when deciding if a player's going to be next season or not. He's only 31 as well, so he should be right in his prime right now, maybe a year or two after. Other players like Juan Uribe, A.J Pierzynski have shown the impact U.S Cellular Field will have on your power numbers when you move here from another team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 03:09 PM) I disagree that he will continue the same numbers. His career trends right now show this year as an outlier in the last 5. I think he will regress a bit. Not only that, but I think he is a terrible replacement for Konerko at 1B. And if this organization wants to pencil in a player that has 1 career game at 1B as their starter for next year, be prepared to be very angry with them. That is not a move that you make after a successful year like this. That is a Royals move and i would lose alot of confidence in our managment if we use a stopgap like that. There is no reason to hold the team together with duct tape. If moving Dye to 1b allows the Sox to acquire some superstar offensive hitters at other positions, I'm all for the move. If they put Dye at 1b, and move Anderson to RF, then you're looking at a 3rd place team next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:14 AM) Well if Konerko did leave, who would replace him at 1b? Unless you traded for a Chad Tracy or Lyle Overbay, no-one withing our organization is going to go near his power numbers than Jermaine Dye. As for your prediction, my thoughts are this. 4 out of those 5 years were spent in Oakland. He's hit 8 more HR's here in Chicago playing in a full season then he did in Oakland playing a full season. You have to look at just more than the career stats, when deciding if a player's going to be next season or not. He's only 31 as well, so he should be right in his prime right now, maybe a year or two after. Other players like Juan Uribe, A.J Pierzynski have shown the impact U.S Cellular Field will have on your power numbers when you move here from another team. Thats the question the management must ask themselves. But it wont include converting Dye to a 1B. It will assess our minor league system, our current player in that position, and what is available via trade or Free agency. I personally think they will re-sign konerko. You do realize that Uribe came from colorado dont you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:09 AM) And if this organization wants to pencil in a player that has 1 career game at 1B as their starter for next year, be prepared to be very angry with them. That is not a move that you make after a successful year like this. That is a Royals move and i would lose alot of confidence in our managment if we use a stopgap like that. There is no reason to hold the team together with duct tape. The Oakland A's did exactly this after winning 102 games in '01. They made Hatteburg their '02 full-time firstbasemen with no experience. They went on to win 103 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:35 AM) The Oakland A's did exactly this after winning 102 games in '01. They made Hatteburg their '02 full-time firstbasemen with no experience. They went on to win 103 games. We have the means to find a replacement instead of hope that our fill in plays well, which is what they did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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