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QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Jan 5, 2006 -> 02:31 PM)
I haven't gone anywhere.  :P

 

A lot of teams are overrated right now, and I happen to think Illinois is one of them. They're really only consistently getting contributions from Brown and Augustine, which probably won't be enough in conference play. Someone else is going to have to step up, like maybe Smith playing a bigger role or McBride or Randle stepping up.

 

Michigan State has a few very good players, but they aren't all that deep. They've got enough talent to beat a lot of teams, including the Illini. However, if one of the big 3 for MSU has an off-night, they can be beat, and Illinois can be tough if they're hitting their outside shots. It should be an interesting game.

It's all about the defense with Illinois.

 

They can win games with Augustine and Brown being the only main contributors with the defense they play.

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QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Jan 5, 2006 -> 04:42 PM)
It's all about the defense with Illinois.

 

They can win games with Augustine and Brown being the only main contributors with the defense they play.

 

They're still going to have to score a decent number of points to beat the better teams in the conference, probably at least in the high 60's, more likely in the 70's. The only team in the conference averaging under 67 a game is NU, and some of that can be attributed to their offensive style. You can't count on holding teams under 60 every night, that won't work against better teams. Even assuming Dee and Augustine hit their averages regularly, that means they have to get 30-40 points per game from everyone else. They're only averaging about 75 points per game even with all of the cupcakes on their schedule, and who knows whether they can keep that rate up or not. They had some close calls in their games where they struggled to score, and not everyone is a horrible shooting team like Georgetown or UNC. This is a team that was successful largely because they had so many scoring options last year. They had 4 players well into double figures in points last year and Augustine was right around 10 a game. Suddenly they're down to 3 double-figure scorers, and Smith can be above or below that depending on what kind of night he has. It's harder to compensate for off-nights when you rely so heavily on two guys.

 

They'll beat up on the bottom half of the league, but if they want more than a 4-5 seed, they'll have to win at least 2 out of 3 against the likes of MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan. We'll see what happens. It's hard to judge teams at this point of the year because many of them don't face the most daunting schedule, the Illini included. However, even looking at the games they played I think they have to step it up a bit if they want to have a good year.

 

Sorry to sound so glum. If it makes you feel any better, this is my attitude towards pretty much everyone but about 10 teams.

Edited by ZoomSlowik
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