Jerry Owens

[DBAHO]

 

It's a valid point...just a very, very obvious one.  Just figured I'd give you a hard time.

And duly noted. Umm let me come up with another beauty. Ummmm......... Ryan Sweeney needs to hit more home runs?

[Randar68]

There are at least 15 better leadoff hitters in the game than Podsednik, especially when he's running with a CS% over 50.

 

And guess what, who are the most disruptive? You have a stat for that? How many pitches did the guys behind Pods get to hit they never would have seen because the pitcher/catcher were worried about Pods stealing. And if he doesn't get hurt, he steals 80-90 bags and only get's caught 15 times TOPS...

 

You guys are a trip. It's not about "stat-geek, stat-geek", it's about having a freaking clue what the **** you're talking about...

 

Maybe we should bring Mike Caruso back? Chris Singleton? Ray Durham as a leadoff hitter? We all recall how effective that was, even though he was a #6 or at BEST a #2 hitter...

 

Great stats don't make someone a great leadoff hitter. The immeasureables such as disruptiveness in addition to OBP, stealing bases, pitches seen per plate appearance, average, etc... (think Kenny Lofton in his prime? Juan Pierre? Chone Figgins, etc)...

 

Nobody should give a flying **** about getting power from your leadoff hitter. I've seen a few too many references to OPS and OPS+ in relation to a leadoff hitter that just make my head spin...

 

Are you guys watching the game of baseball or staring at a blackboard in math class? Hell, I have engineering and math degrees from one fo the top institutions in the world for such and enjoy stats as much as the next guy, but you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear... The game of baseball is enjoyable and unpredictable because of these immeasureables and the human element. I think you "stat geeks" forget this far too often.

 

Just don't know what game you're watching if you think there are 15 better leadoff hitters in the game of baseball... mind-boggling...

[Randar68]

They may also have been due to the Sox not getting the same pitching as the 1st half of the season.

 

Is that why their scoring production went through the floor? Because of the pitching?

[Randar68]

No.  If I were using win shares, it'd be even uglier.  Just look at the leadoff hitter for every team in MLB and objectively ask yourself, would we be better off with this guy over Pods?  I think you'll be surprised.

 

So, you'd take these guys over Pods from the AL as a leadoff hitter?

 

Pods' numbers when batting leadoff:

.290/.351/.350 - 57 SB, 23 CS

 

Other "top" leadoff hitters in the AL - stats ***when hitting in the leadoff spot:

.304/.351/.437 - 33 SB, 8 CS

.290/.325/.458 - 43 SB, 7 CS

.317/.367/.441 - 18 SB. 1 CS

.292/.352/.457 - 4 SB, 4 CS

.245/.346/.487 - 3 SB, 3 CS

.291/.356/.393 - 50 SB, 15 CS

.290/.353/.493 - 18 SB, 9 CS

.285/.371/.409 - 4 SB, 1 CS

.275/.349/.328 - 5 SB, 3 CS

 

I'll give you Jeter, even though he is a #2 hitter IMO...

 

Brian Roberts had HALF a great year and fell back to previous performance in the second half, which was mediocre at best.

 

Here is who those stats relate to in order:

Ichiro

Carl Crawford

Johnny Damon

David DeJesus

Dave Dellucci

Chone Figgins

Grady Sizemore

Brandon Inge

Jason Kendall

 

 

The only guys I'd even consider on this list an "upgrade" over Pods would be MARGINALLY Ichiro, Damon, and Figgins. Grady Sizemore would never hit leadoff for me unless it was a dire necessity, he's too valuable elsewhere in the order.

 

So, in the AL, of the only guys (4) I'd even consider replacing Pods with in the #1 spot in the order here are their 2005 salaries:

 

Jeter: $19,600,000

Ichiro: $12,529,000 (someone who again would be best suited in a #2 roles if he had someone like Pods/Figgins in front of him)

Figgins: $390,000

Damon: $8,250,000

 

 

So there you have it for the AL. The only guys, IMO, worth upgrading over Pod would all cost you 10+ million except for Figgins...

 

Sorry, but building a team that is station-to-station from the top of the order on down is a recipe for sitting on your ass in October unless you have a Sox/Astros type of rotation and bullpen of which there are only 1 or 2 teams in baseball who could even remotely compare to the Sox/Astros...

 

 

The basic issue is that some people are looking at stats and want to put the guy with the best numbers in place, regardless of disruptiveness, how they work a pitcher, how much attention they draw from the opposition when on base, how critical they are to a team's overall production...

 

You just CAN NOT ignore those factors when talking about a leadoff hitter. They are almost entirely ignorable for any spot in the order other that #1 or #2 hitter... Would you guys trade Iguchi's numbers in the #2 hole? How many times did he give himself up this season by simply trying advancing the runner? 50? 75? more? That is something that the propeller-heads cannot measure... and it is entirely CRUCIAL to the team's success...

[3E8]

Is that why their scoring production went through the floor?  Because of the pitching?

Let me guess...it was because we didn't have Pods' DISRUPTIVENESS! He wasn't there to disruptisize the pitcher and the catcher by make them expend their energy having to either catch him leanin' again or throw him out time after time at second base. Therefore they stayed fresher and mowed us down one by one.

 

 

Or maybe it was becaue our the players now guaranteed the most at-bats in the game were Timo Perez/Pablo Ozuna and Geoff Blum was playing everyday.

[Randar68]

Or maybe it was becaue our the players now guaranteed the most at-bats in the game were Timo Perez/Pablo Ozuna and Geoff Blum was playing everyday. 

 

That was the biggest part of it, but why were they in the lineup? Because Pods and Crede were hurt and I doubt they were missing Crede all that much in the #8 hole...

 

Then again, if you can't measure it, it must not be real... :rolly

[3E8]

Brian Roberts had HALF a great year and fell back to previous performance in the second half, which was mediocre at best.

"you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear" -You

 

 

Roberts second half, which you label as "mediocre at best"

 

248 AB

.274 AVG

.351 OBP

31 BB

34 K

9 SB

5 CS

 

Podsednik's second half

 

225 AB

.284 AVG

.326 OBP

13 BB

34 K

15 SB

14 CS

 

 

So, Roberts is getting on base more, walking at a much higher rate, striking out at a lower rate, stealing bases at a better rate, all while being "mediocre at best". Please explain why you'd rather have Podsednik, without using the word disruptive or any variation of it.

[3E8]

That was the biggest part of it, but why were they in the lineup?  Because Pods and Crede were hurt and I doubt they were missing Crede all that much in the #8 hole...

 

Then again, if you can't measure it, it must not be real...  :rolly

Take out any everday starter, replace them with a hitting-challenged bench player, play an extended amount of games, and offensive production goes down. Especially when the guy who goes down is the one getting the most at bats every game. We know this already. How this fact makes Podsednik a terrific leadoff hitter, I do not see.

[DBAHO]

Is that why their scoring production went through the floor?  Because of the pitching?

Rowand wasn't talking about our "scoring position" alone, he said this team went down the f***in tubes went Pods was out, and I was simply stating that the Sox not getting the same pitching from the likes of Buerhle, Garcia and Garland probably had something to do with that.

 

Scott Podsednik going down alone didn't cause this team to lose a 15 game lead.

[Rowand44]

Scott Podsednik going down alone didn't cause this team to lose a 15 game lead.

They didn't lose a 15 game lead now did they. Meh, I'm not going to argue this, it's been beaten to death before and we all know where everyone else stands on the issue.

[DBAHO]

They didn't lose a 15 game lead now did they.    Meh, I'm not going to argue this, it's been beaten to death before and we all know where everyone else stands on the issue.

I'll change lose to "choke" then. Although that was flavour of the month last month wasn't it.

[Randar68]

"you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear"  -You

Roberts second half, which you label as "mediocre at best"

 

248 AB

.274 AVG

.351 OBP

31 BB

34 K

9 SB

5 CS

 

Podsednik's second half

 

225 AB

.284 AVG

.326 OBP

13 BB

34 K

15 SB

14 CS

So, Roberts is getting on base more, walking at a much higher rate, striking out at a lower rate, stealing bases at a better rate, all while being "mediocre at best".  Please explain why you'd rather have Podsednik, without using the word disruptive or any variation of it.

 

Because Scotty was playing hurt. He would have been out for longer had the team not been tanking it while he and Crede were missing those games... 3 months later and he still isn't 100%... what does that tell you?

[Randar68]

Scott Podsednik going down alone didn't cause this team to lose a 15 game lead.

 

Fair enough, and I didn't mean to imply that or use it as basis for my arguement...

[Rowand44]

I'll change lose to "choke" then. Although that was flavour of the month last month wasn't it.

Hey, don't lump me in with that group.

[Randar68]

"you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear"   -You

Roberts second half, which you label as "mediocre at best"

 

248 AB

.274 AVG

.351 OBP

31 BB

34 K

9 SB

5 CS

 

2005 Pre All-Star: .345/.416/.591 18 SB, 5 CS

2005 Post All-Star: .274/.351/.419 9 SB, 5 CS

 

Career numbers:

2001: 75 games, .253/.284/.341, 12 SB, 3 CS

2002: 38 games, .227/.308/.297, 9 SB, 2 CS

2003: 112 games, .270/.337/.367, 23 SB, 6 CS

2004: 159 games, .273/.344/.376, 29 SB, 12 CS

 

So, based on his career numbers, those 2nd half numbers are right in-line.

 

ok, I won't use the word disruptive if you don't use "stats"... talk about a complete asinine way to totally disregard something... can you be more ignorant?

 

Maybe the pitchers only throw over to 1st base 4-5 times because Pods is a plodder... mayeb they throw fat pitches to the following hitters because they're thinking about what color to paint their bedrooms in their new mansions...

 

Sheeesh. I guess all players in a batting order are interchangeable and you shouldn't expect anything different out of your #8 hitter as your leadoff hitter.

Edited October 21, 2005 by Randar68

[Balta1701]

They may also have been due to the Sox not getting the same pitching as the 1st half of the season.

If you look at the team's ERA numbers, you would easily conclude that August should have been a very good month for this team, and that July should have been our worst month of the season.

 

Team ERA:

 

April 3.13

May: 3.68

June: 3.45

July: 4.34

August: 3.66

Sept: 3.50

 

May was a very good month for this team, and we had a worse ERA than we had in August, yet August was by far this team's worst month.

 

It was not the pitching which caused the August swoon.

[3E8]

2005 Pre All-Star: .345/.416/.591 18 SB, 5 CS

2005 Post All-Star: .274/.351/.419 9 SB, 5 CS

 

Career numbers:

2001: 75 games, .253/.284/.341, 12 SB, 3 CS

2002: 38 games, .227/.308/.297, 9 SB,  2 CS

2003: 112 games, .270/.337/.367, 23 SB,  6 CS

2004: 159 games, .273/.344/.376, 29 SB,  12 CS

 

So, based on his career numbers, those 2nd half numbers are right in-line.

 

ok, I won't use the word disruptive if you don't use "stats"... talk about a complete asinine way to totally disregard something...  can you be more ignorant?

 

Maybe the pitchers only throw over to 1st base 4-5 times because Pods is a plodder...  mayeb they throw fat pitches to the following hitters because they're thinking about what color to paint their bedrooms in their new mansions...

 

Sheeesh.  I guess all players in a batting order are interchangeable and you shouldn't expect anything different out of your #8 hitter as your leadoff hitter.

 

You said a certain sample of games for Roberts made him look "mediocre at best". I compared them to Pods' second half numbers and showed that Roberts mediocre numbers were actually better than Podsednik's.

 

Now you're throwing in Roberts' career numbers. I don't understand why. We were looking at a very specific sample which you labeled at or below average. There is no need to see how well the sample fits Roberts' previous numbers or where the outlier is or what Roberts career projects to be. All we are concerned with is that you indirectly called Podsednik's second half mediocre, while at the same time arguing that a large part of our offensive underproduction was due to him not playing.

 

Also, when I said the thing about 15 other guys being better leadoff hitters than Pods, I said nothing about who was the best value, or guys who I should exclude because they would be a better 2-hole hitter instead. You added that in yourself! I am simply looking at other players around both leauges who had the majority of their at bats come from the leadoff position, who I would rather have leading off for our team than Scott. Stolen bases are obviously a huge factor in your definition of a leadoff hitter. I used to think that way too, but not as much anymore.

 

I'm done arguing with you for awhile. Good day.

[CWSGuy406]

The only guys I'd even consider on this list an "upgrade" over Pods would be MARGINALLY Ichiro, Damon, and Figgins.  Grady Sizemore would never hit leadoff for me unless it was a dire necessity, he's too valuable elsewhere in the order.

 

 

LOL!!!! Grady Sizemore ANYWHERE in the lineup is better than Scott Podsednik.

 

You know what, I'm sure Grady Sizemore's 22 HRs, 37 doubles, and 11 triples did a much better job at 'putting pressure on the defense' -- or, I should say, contributing to a successful offense -- than Podsednik's total of 29 x-tra basehits and 59 SBs -- not to mention he was caught 23 times, and probably picked off another three-five times, thus wiping out any chance whatsoever of his run scoring.

 

Podsednik as a leadoff man over Sizemore? "Hilarious".

 

ok, I won't use the word disruptive if you don't use "stats"... talk about a complete asinine way to totally disregard something...  can you be more ignorant?

 

Pot, meet kettle. You're ignorant to anything you don't understand.

 

'Oh, Win Shares? Stat geek. Haha, take your eyes off the spreadsheet, geek!"

 

:rolly

Edited October 21, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[Randar68]

You know what, I'm sure Grady Sizemore's 22 HRs, 37 doubles, and 11 triples did a much better job at 'putting pressure on the defense' -- or, I should say, contributing to a successful offense -- than Podsednik's total of 29 x-tra basehits and 59 SBs -- not to mention he was caught 23 times, and probably picked off another three-five times, thus wiping out any chance whatsoever of his run scoring. 

 

You're right, Sizemore's solo HR's (15 of his 22) and lack of pressure on the basepaths are perfect for leadoff. He would have been infinitely more valuable in the #2 or #3 spot in the order, setting up for the run-producers while still getting a chance to drive in runs... however, Cleveland doesn't have a good leadoff hitter, so guess where he gets placed in the order... But hey, his 132 strike-outs really put that pressure on the defense and pitcher, right? So let's put it another way... if Pods and Sizemore are on the same team, who would be batting leadoff?

 

LOL... thanks Bill James for weighing in on the uniform interpretation of what "contribution" means... basically, anything you claim...

Edited October 21, 2005 by Randar68

[Randar68]

Pot, meet kettle.  You're ignorant to anything you don't understand. 

 

'Oh, Win Shares?  Stat geek.  Haha, take your eyes off the spreadsheet, geek!"

 

You're right, not accepting the validity of many made-up stats in the uniform application to a ballclub is ME not understanding them, right?

 

LOL! Ok... keep digging... :banghead

[Randar68]

You said a certain sample of games for Roberts made him look "mediocre at best".  I compared them to Pods' second half numbers and showed that Roberts mediocre numbers were actually better than Podsednik's. 

 

Now you're throwing in Roberts' career numbers.  I don't understand why.  We were looking at a very specific sample which you labeled at or below average.  There is no need to see how well the sample fits Roberts' previous numbers or where the outlier is or what Roberts career projects to be.  All we are concerned with is that you indirectly called Podsednik's second half mediocre, while at the same time arguing that a large part of our offensive underproduction was due to him not playing.

 

Also, when I said the thing about 15 other guys being better leadoff hitters than Pods, I said nothing about who was the best value, or guys who I should exclude because they would be a better 2-hole hitter instead.  You added that in yourself!  I am simply looking at other players around both leauges who had the majority of their at bats come from the leadoff position, who I would rather have leading off for our team than Scott.  Stolen bases are obviously a huge factor in your definition of a leadoff hitter.  I used to think that way too, but not as much anymore. 

 

I'm done arguing with you for awhile.  Good day.

 

 

Being affordable is the basis of whether or not it would ever be a realistic option for this ballclub. I gave you the guys in the AL I thought were at or above Pods' level, and 3 of the 4 are affordable to only the 3 or 4 highest payrolled teams in the AL.

 

You wanna b**** and moan about how Pods doesn't fit some kind of stat-based notion on what a lead-off man should provide? How about you give me a goddamn alternative?

 

This offseason, who should the Sox replace Pods with as a lead-off hitter? The year after? What do you look for out of your leadoff hitter and who is available that can provide it?

 

Surely Pods' 44 SB and 9 CS prior to getting injured in just 74 games? If a power hitter has a messed-up elbow or wrist but keeps playing on it because his team needs him, but can no longer hit HR's, yet he still puts up equivalent average and OBP numbers, is he now not a worthwhile investment/player? Should they trade him the next offseason because he played injured for the team that needed him, but his production sufferred???

 

Some of these arguements about why Podsednick is not a good leadoff hitter are more removed from reality than Howard Hughes' dying thoughts...

[CWSGuy406]

You're right, Sizemore's solo HR's (15 of his 22) and lack of pressure on the basepaths are perfect for leadoff. 

 

Ok -- are you trying to tell me homeruns, the best thing that a hitter can do in a given AB, are bad? I'll take homers wherever they come in the lineup, and it's even better when you can get them from a guy who also has a .348 OBP.

 

But hey, his 132 strike-outs really put that pressure on the defense and pitcher, right?  So let's put it another way... if Pods and Sizemore are on the same team, who would be batting leadoff?

 

Ok, so now it's if both were on the same team... Flip, flop, flip, flop.

 

If I had to choose one or the other to be my leadoff man of my team, I choose Sizemore. Pretty easy call for me.

 

LOL...  thanks Bill James for weighing in on the uniform interpretation of what "contribution" means...  basically, anything you claim...

 

Offensive contributions? Umm, well, when comparing Scott Podsednik and Grady Sizemore, I see that they're AVG and OBP are similar, while Sizemore slugs over 130 more than Podsednik does. But right -- Scotty makes the pitcher throw over a couple times, and he steals bases, so he's the better leadoff hitter.

 

Instant offense with a homer? Nah, I'll take the single, and then the possibility that Podsednik might steal a base, and all the while, put pressure on the defense. Because, a homer doesn't put any pressure on the defense -- it puts a run on the board, but who gives a damn, right? :rolly

 

You calling someone ignorant... that's funny.

[aboz56]

Sizemore > Pods

 

I don't care where they are batting in the lineup, first, last, pinch hitting, playing in the minors, etc.

 

Anyone who says different, well, to put it nicely, is an idiot.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Oct 21, 2005 -> 06:06 PM)

Ok -- are you trying to tell me homeruns, the best thing that a hitter can do in a given AB, are bad?  I'll take homers wherever they come in the lineup, and it's even better when you can get them from a guy who also has a .348 OBP. 

Ok, so now it's if both were on the same team...  Flip, flop, flip, flop.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I really hate this line of thinking.

 

Do you honestly believe that every batter should go up to the plate trying to hit a home run because it's "the best thing that a hitter can do in a given AB?"

[CWSGuy406]

I really hate this line of thinking.

 

Do you honestly believe that every batter should go up to the plate trying to hit a home run because it's "the best thing that a hitter can do in a given AB?"

 

No -- where did I say that a hitter should go up, looking to swing out of his shoes just so he can knock one in the seats? I didn't...

 

But, the best outcome in any given AB is a homerun -- it guarantees you a run.