Jerry Owens

[BlackBetsy]

They may move Anderson in a couple years but he is possibly KW's favorite player.  Anyone notice Aaron Rowand's offense against good pitching in the playoffs? 

 

 

Isn't it weird that Rowand and Anderson sit next to each other on the bench all the time?

[GoodAsGould]

Isn't it weird that Rowand and Anderson sit next to each other on the bench all the time?

 

 

I think Anderson has a lot of respect for Rowand and kind of looks up to him. I think since we are a competetive team and all and looking to defend our WS make Anderson kind of like a 4th starter.

 

 

At the begining of the season tell Rowand and Pods each will sit out 25 or so games and same to Dye... than maybe when Konerko sits out 10-15 games Dye can sub as the 1B and give Anderson RF. Also when Frank needs a rest Dye can be the DH and Anderson RF another 15-20 games.

 

 

On total that should give him near 100 plus games and while he might be switching around the OF I think Anderson would gladly take that over another season in AAA. Also if any starter goes down he would obviously just take his spot.

[Randar68]

Isn't it weird that Rowand and Anderson sit next to each other on the bench all the time?

 

Isn't it "weird" that Anderson probably got more face-time in the series and celebration than Rowand?

 

And to those who said Anderson couldn't touch Rowand defensively... lol... pass the pipe.

 

I understand he is a fan-favorite and all, but that does not mean you should throw away all objectivity and common sense. A .750 OPS CF'er making 3.25 million next year and a cheap replacemant that could put those numbers up and play equal-at-worst defensively in CF, and has a MUCH higher ceiling...

 

I'm still having nightmares of all the horrendous swings Rowand took in the playoffs, especially the series...

Edited October 28, 2005 by Randar68

[ZoomSlowik]

Isn't it "weird" that Anderson probably got more face-time in the series and celebration than Rowand?

 

And to those who said Anderson couldn't touch Rowand defensively...  lol...  pass the pipe.

 

I understand he is a fan-favorite and all, but that does not mean you should throw away all objectivity and common sense.  A .750 OPS CF'er making 3.25 million next year and a cheap replacemant that could put those numbers up and play equal-at-worst defensively in CF, and has a MUCH higher ceiling...

 

I'm still having nightmares of all the horrendous swings Rowand took in the playoffs, especially the series...

 

You really think that Anderson isn't going to have equally ugly at bats? Everyone on our team has had some brutal at bats here and there, that doesn't mean that a rookie with 1 year over A ball is going to outproduce them. Anderson's numbers are brutal thus far at the major league level, and would be worse if not for one great game against King Felix. Even at AAA he struck out too much and didn't walk enough. I think you're expecting too much from him. I expect Juan Uribe type numbers at best.

[witesoxfan]

A .750 OPS CF'er making 3.25 million next year and a cheap replacemant that could put those numbers up and play equal-at-worst defensively in CF, and has a MUCH higher ceiling...

 

 

I just don't agree with any of this whatsoever.

 

Rowand was a sub .750 OPS CFer if you want to be technical about it...but he's a year removed from a .900 OPS. He is top 5 in the league defensively as well...I just don't think you can say that about Anderson yet without being laughed at.

 

I also don't buy the much higher ceiling for Anderson either. I don't see much more than a .275 20 75 20 .800 type average from Anderson season by season...coincidentally, that's exactly what I see in Rowand as well.

 

Rowand's not breaking the bank by any means...and you don't trade a player at his lowest value. Remember when PK for Odalis Perez seemed liked a deal that couldn't happen because Perez was so much more valuable than PK?

[beck72]

All this talk about Rowand being traded---what would his price be if he were a free agent this yr? How much would teams pay him? Sorry. Arow isn't going anywhere.

 

Now anderson OTOH....... with Chris Young, Jerry Owens and Sweeney around in AAA for 2006, Anderson could go somewhere to play. And the sox could get some nice talent for him as well. Not as much as Rowand. But a good chunk

[Randar68]

All this talk about Rowand being traded---what would his price be if he were a free agent this yr? How much would teams pay him? Sorry. Arow isn't going anywhere.

 

Now anderson OTOH....... with Chris Young, Jerry Owens and Sweeney around in AAA for 2006, Anderson could go somewhere to play. And the sox could get some nice talent for him as well. Not as much as Rowand. But a good chunk

 

Anderson is the better player, that's why you play him. Reason #1. Rowand makes 3.25 million. Anderson makes the minimum. Reason #2! Anderson has the higher ceiling. Reason #3. KW loves Anderson. Reason #4!

 

Anderson is ready for the majors right now. Young, Sweeney, Owens, all a year or more away.

[Randar68]

You really think that Anderson isn't going to have equally ugly at bats? Everyone on our team has had some brutal at bats here and there, that doesn't mean that a rookie with 1 year over A ball is going to outproduce them. Anderson's numbers are brutal thus far at the major league level, and would be worse if not for one great game against King Felix. Even at AAA he struck out too much and didn't walk enough. I think you're expecting too much from him. I expect Juan Uribe type numbers at best.

 

Anderson's numbers improved as the season went on, his K:BB numbers improved steadily over the course of the season, his first in AAA. In addition, while he strikes out a bunch (as does Rowand), he also walks considerably more often than Rowand.

 

You're expecting .260 with 15-20 HR's and 80 RBI?

 

Anderson is simply a better baseball player than Aaron Rowand, and no excuse-making for Rowand or denigrating of Anderson to make your point is going to change that.

[ZoomSlowik]

Anderson's numbers improved as the season went on, his K:BB numbers improved steadily over the course of the season, his first in AAA.  In addition, while he strikes out a bunch (as does Rowand), he also walks considerably more often than Rowand.

 

You're expecting .260 with 15-20 HR's and 80 RBI?

 

Anderson is simply a better baseball player than Aaron Rowand, and no excuse-making for Rowand or denigrating of Anderson to make your point is going to change that.

 

Since when did Uribe hit .260, 20 homers, and have 80 RBI this year? I was referring more to his style of play anyways. He's not going to hit for a high average or get on base a lot, but he'll flash the occasional pop and play decent to good defense.

 

At this point in their respective careers, I seriously disagree. Offensively they're similar players (except Rowand probably makes slightly better contact), while defensively Anderson probably has better speed and a better arm. Aaron probably gets slightly better reads at this point. Rowand was pretty effective once he got to AAA, but he's nowhere near those numbers this year.

 

Minor league performance is simply not a reliable predictor for major league success. There are a lot of guys that kick ass at AA or AAA that never do anything of import in the majors. Even when they make it, many take a couple of years to get there. Very few make an impact in their first year. Anderson's K to BB ratios in the minors don't mean squat. In his brief time in the majors, he had a 0/12 K/BB ratio in 34 at bats. Needless to say that needs to improve drastically.

 

I really don't see how you could look at Anderson's swing and say that he's going to be a reliable hitter next year. I could definitely see him hitting like .230 with an OBP well under .300. That's not going to help our lineup. If everything goes well, I could see him hitting about .260 with 15-18 homers, and an OBP of about .320, with the homer numbers only being accurate if he is a full time starter. That's not exactly stellar. Anderson is not another Pujols or Cabrera. He is not the kind of guy that is going to come in here and hit the crap out of the ball right away. He's not a supremely good contact hitter and doesn't have elite power. At his peak his probably a .280-25 homerun guy that plays very good defense. If he pans out, he's more of a Torii Hunter or pre-2005 Andruw Jones than a Ken Griffey Jr. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that, but his peak probably isn't this year.

 

With the current team setup and the probabilty that we'll be a competitive team, I'd rather not see us breaking in a rookie. I'd personally like to see Anderson, Young, and Owens start the year in Charlotte. Then if one of them starts to kick ass or one of our major leaguers get hurt or start sucking we can call them up. However, it sounds like KW is enamored with Anderson and is going to at a minimum keep him at the major league level.

Edited October 31, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[RockRaines]

Simply put, you dont know what you dont know.

Anderson could outperform A-row based on his numbers and his talent level, then again, he could be much worse.

 

What we DO know is that A-row costs more, seems to be coming off of an extremely dissapointing year offensively, and is an asset in the clubhouse.

 

Anderson is a mystery at this point. Would I like to see BA starting? Yes. Do I think he is going to be better thatn A-row? Yes.

 

But we dont want to just replace A-row with an unproven player. The only real course is to use BA as a 4th OF'er this year, and let them play it out. Thats the only solution.

[Randar68]

But we dont want to just replace A-row with an unproven player.  The only real course is to use BA as a 4th OF'er this year, and let them play it out.  Thats the only solution.

 

This type of thinking fails to take anything other than hesitancy into account.

 

"the only solution"???

 

So, we're afraid to take a chance now? We're afraid to trust our scouting and player development people? We're afraid to replace a disappointing offensive player with one who has a higher ceiling but may struggle initially?

 

We're not replacing our heart of the order. We're replacing perhaps our weakest offensive player, here.

[Randar68]

I really don't see how you could look at Anderson's swing and say that he's going to be a reliable hitter next year. I could definitely see him hitting like .230 with an OBP well under .300. That's not going to help our lineup. If everything goes well, I could see him hitting about .260 with 15-18 homers, and an OBP of about .320, with the homer numbers only being accurate if he is a full time starter. That's not exactly stellar. Anderson is not another Pujols or Cabrera. He is not the kind of guy that is going to come in here and hit the crap out of the ball right away. He's not a supremely good contact hitter and doesn't have elite power. At his peak his probably a .280-25 homerun guy that plays very good defense. If he pans out, he's more of a Torii Hunter or pre-2005 Andruw Jones than a Ken Griffey Jr. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that, but his peak probably isn't this year.

 

How many times have you seen Anderson play in his career? How many at-bats? The handful of major-league at-bats? Nobody has said anywhere that he's anything close to Pujols or Cabrera, and even saying that kind of stuff just furthers your lunatic apologist stance with regard to Rowand.

 

His ceiling is far greater than Rowand's. He has never repeated a level. Hell, this summer was the first one he even spent entirely at a single level (and he didn't technically do that bouncing to Chicago)...

 

He has hit everywhere he has been. He has taken walks, wherever he has been. He has risen quickly, without set-back, while playing CF and battling 2 injuries along the way.

 

Anderson is a far superior baseball player to Aaron Rowand and the method you use to argue the point is beyond ridiculous.

 

Please tell me what about Aaron Rowand makes him irreplaceable by a higher-ceiling prospect who plays Equivalent-at-worst defensive CF. Rowand is a freaking #7/8/9 hitter! This is how you develop the organization.

 

Thank God Kenny has balls, because some of you are just afraid to make changes just for the sake of being afraid.

 

 

This has nothing to do anymore about what would Zoom or Rock do if they were GM.

 

1) Kenny loves Brian Anderson

2) Kenny has Brian Anderson on big board

3) Rowand has disappointing year.

4) Kenny has several OF'ers who could be ready to break in for 2007, meaning you'd prefer to have Anderson established and knowing what you'll be able to get from him for 2007 instead of breaking in multiple OF'ers.

5) Rowand makes 3.25 million and Anderson makes 350k.

 

It's simple deductive reasoning. Anderson could be included in a trade if KW has to do so to get a #3 or #4 hitter, but aside from that, Anderson will be your starting CF'er in 2006. It's time for some people to come to grips with reality.

[ZoomSlowik]

We're afraid to take a chance now?  We're afraid to trust our scouting and player development people?  We're afraid to replace a disappointing offensive player with one who has a higher ceiling but may struggle initially?

 

We're not replacing our heart of the order.  We're replacing perhaps our weakest offensive player, here.

 

This has nothing to do with trusting our scouting people. The fact is that no matter how good a scouting/development group is, they're going to be wrong on occasion. I really don't think I need to start listing people who've failed to meet expectations as a player, that list is quite long.

 

It's debatable whether or not Rowand is our weakest offensive player, but Anderson probably would be if we call him up. He's not going to come in and hit .300 or blast 30 plus homers, he's almost certainly going to be another offensive liability, and the chances are good that he'll be a bigger one than Juan, Aaron, or Carl. I don't see any reason to take that kind of risk this season. Why would we want to make an already suspect offensive team even weaker? I don't see any way he's a real asset to our offense this season. You can say all you want about Aaron being a major problem spot for our offense, but I'll take a .270 average with a .329 OBP over a serious question mark that will probably do significantly worse anytime.

 

We don't have a need to break him in yet, and he could probably use some more seasoning anyways, as shown by his 44/115 walk/strikeout ratio at AAA this year. I'd rather wait until he shows more in plate discipline. We have the luxury to be able to wait until our prospects are actually ready to contribute at the major league level right now, unlike some other teams, so I think we should take advantage of that.

[Chisoxrd5]

How many times have you seen Anderson play in his career?  How many at-bats?  The handful of major-league at-bats?  Nobody has said anywhere that he's anything close to Pujols or Cabrera, and even saying that kind of stuff just furthers your lunatic apologist stance with regard to Rowand.

 

His ceiling is far greater than Rowand's.  He has never repeated a level.  Hell, this summer was the first one he even spent entirely at a single level (and he didn't technically do that bouncing to Chicago)...

 

He has hit everywhere he has been.  He has taken walks, wherever he has been.  He has risen quickly, without set-back, while playing CF and battling 2 injuries along the way.

 

Anderson is a far superior baseball player to Aaron Rowand and the method you use to argue the point is beyond ridiculous.

 

Please tell me what about Aaron Rowand makes him irreplaceable by a higher-ceiling prospect who plays Equivalent-at-worst defensive CF.  Rowand is a freaking #7/8/9 hitter!  This is how you develop the organization.

 

Thank God Kenny has balls, because some of you are just afraid to make changes just for the sake of being afraid.

This has nothing to do anymore about what would Zoom or Rock do if they were GM. 

 

1) Kenny loves Brian Anderson

2) Kenny has Brian Anderson on big board

3) Rowand has disappointing year.

4) Kenny has several OF'ers who could be ready to break in for 2007, meaning you'd prefer to have Anderson established and knowing what you'll be able to get from him for 2007 instead of breaking in multiple OF'ers.

5) Rowand makes 3.25 million and Anderson makes 350k.

 

It's simple deductive reasoning.  Anderson could be included in a trade if KW has to do so to get a #3 or #4 hitter, but aside from that, Anderson will be your starting CF'er in 2006.  It's time for some people to come to grips with reality.

 

Very good post Randar. I agree with you completely that Anderson will most likely be our starting CF next year. Rowand's value is relatively high considering the down year he had offensively. If anyone is to be moved this offseason (besides Marte) he has to be at the top of that short list.

 

Anderson oozes potential...I haven't had the opportunity to see him besides his spring training AB's and his short stint up here last season, but I'm extremely impressed by everything he does. No one needs to look further than his two homeruns off of Felix Hernandez to see what this kid brings to the table.

 

Time will tell...but I would not at all be suprised to see Anderson as our everyday CF in 2006.

[Randar68]

We don't have a need to break him in yet, and he could probably use some more seasoning anyways, as shown by his 44/115 walk/strikeout ratio at AAA this year. I'd rather wait until he shows more in plate discipline. We have the luxury to be able to wait until our prospects are actually ready to contribute at the major league level right now, unlike some other teams, so I think we should take advantage of that.

 

So, we shouldn't develop our home-grown players because:

 

1) People have failed in the past

2) replacing a .736 OPS with a 32/116 BB:K ratio player in the bottom of the order is a bad idea?

3) because a player with a year in AAA, half a year in AA, and spending what will be 2 or 3 spring trainings and most of August/September with the major league club "isn't ready to contribute to the big league club"...

 

When the Hell is a player ready for the big league club if a guy with a full year in AAA where he showed improvement over the season and contributed to the club when called-upon down the stretch run heading to a World Series victory doesn't qualify as "ready to contribute to the big league club?"

 

It's just absolute bull-honkey reasoning.

[ZoomSlowik]

How many times have you seen Anderson play in his career?  How many at-bats?  The handful of major-league at-bats?  Nobody has said anywhere that he's anything close to Pujols or Cabrera, and even saying that kind of stuff just furthers your lunatic apologist stance with regard to Rowand.

 

His ceiling is far greater than Rowand's.  He has never repeated a level.  Hell, this summer was the first one he even spent entirely at a single level (and he didn't technically do that bouncing to Chicago)...

 

He has hit everywhere he has been.  He has taken walks, wherever he has been.  He has risen quickly, without set-back, while playing CF and battling 2 injuries along the way.

 

Anderson is a far superior baseball player to Aaron Rowand and the method you use to argue the point is beyond ridiculous.

 

Please tell me what about Aaron Rowand makes him irreplaceable by a higher-ceiling prospect who plays Equivalent-at-worst defensive CF.  Rowand is a freaking #7/8/9 hitter!  This is how you develop the organization.

 

Thank God Kenny has balls, because some of you are just afraid to make changes just for the sake of being afraid.

This has nothing to do anymore about what would Zoom or Rock do if they were GM. 

 

1) Kenny loves Brian Anderson

2) Kenny has Brian Anderson on big board

3) Rowand has disappointing year.

4) Kenny has several OF'ers who could be ready to break in for 2007, meaning you'd prefer to have Anderson established and knowing what you'll be able to get from him for 2007 instead of breaking in multiple OF'ers.

5) Rowand makes 3.25 million and Anderson makes 350k.

 

It's simple deductive reasoning.  Anderson could be included in a trade if KW has to do so to get a #3 or #4 hitter, but aside from that, Anderson will be your starting CF'er in 2006.  It's time for some people to come to grips with reality.

 

At no point did I ever say that Rowand was going to be Pujols or Cabrera. I didn't intimate that at any point. Please stop putting words in my mouth. I'm saying you make it sound like Anderson is going to be the next coming of Babe Ruth when that can't be further from the truth. If Anderson had the ability of someone like Pujols or Cabrera, I'd be more inclined to call him up and give him the job. However, that couldn't be further from the truth. He's simply not an elite hitter and probably never will be.

 

How exactly do you suppose he has a ceiling so much higher than Rowand? What about him tells you that he's going to come in here and hit for a high average with serious pop? I'm really curious, since he's never shown that type of ability at any level. And how do you figure that he's taken walks wherever he's been? The most he's taken in any one year was 48. In 248 career minor league games, he has 101 walks. Even if he kept that rate constant in the majors, which is highly unlikely, that comes out to about 66 walks in a 162 game season. That's decent, but not exactly stellar, and it means a lot less if you're not going to hit. I haven't seen him a lot, but from what I have seen his swing is so brutally long that I seriously wonder if he'll be able to hit major league pitching. As of right now he strikes me as a better fielding Joe Borchard. Unless he gets better plate discipline, I don't know if that'll change.

 

I try to read what the experts think on as many prospects as possible, and the comparison they came up with is Mike Cameron, a superb fielder with a typically low BA and OBP that flashes decent pop. Most have said that the ceiling for Anderson is about a .280 average with 25 homers and 20 steals, the speed being something he hasn't even used to this point in the minors. What is so great about those numbers that we have to suffer through a year or two of a sub-.250 batting average with an OBP in the neighborhood of .300? Where exactly do you think he's going to hit for the next 3 years or so in the order? How long has Crede, a guy with significantly more experience who was almost certainly a better prospect, been hitting that low in the order? When are you going to learn that it doesn't matter how fast you move through an organization or what kind of numbers you put up in the minors? A guy hits when a guy hits, Anderson's early major league returns are not good.

 

You rip on me for being afraid to make changes, but you're the one that wants to make a change basically for the sake of making a change. The chances are slim that Anderson is going to be an upgrade over Rowand next year, and you still want to make him the Opening Day starter. I don't see the point in trading a bottom-of-the-order hitter with major league experience who was passable at the plate even in an off year for another bottom-of-the-order hitter that's got a year and a half of experience over A-ball. Getting another a year of experience under his belt at the majors simply isn't that big a deal. There's no magical formula that says a year in the big leagues will automatically make him a good hitter. Even if he plays full-time in center next year, there's nothing that says he's suddenly going to be an "established" player in 2007. He could make the same kind of improvement at AAA without becoming an offense-drain on the Sox, something I'd much rather see.

 

I will say that Kenny is enamored with Anderson, but I think/hope he has better sense than to start him in center. He has never said he'll be the Opening Day starter, he's said they need to find a place for him on the major league roster, which I take to mean that he'll be our 4th outfielder. I really don't think he wants to rush Anderson more than they already have. Making someone with as little experience as Anderson your full-time starter on a contender is not a good move unless the guy is just a natural born hitting machine, which is not the case. Frankly unless he tears the cover off the ball in Spring Training I'd rather see him stay at AAA, be be dealt for a real hitter before that.

[ZoomSlowik]

So, we shouldn't develop our home-grown players because:

 

1) People have failed in the past

2) replacing a .736 OPS with a 32/116 BB:K ratio player in the bottom of the order is a bad idea?

3) because a player with a year in AAA, half a year in AA, and spending what will be 2 or 3 spring trainings and most of August/September with the major league club "isn't ready to contribute to the big league club"...

 

When the Hell is a player ready for the big league club if a guy with a full year in AAA where he showed improvement over the season and contributed to the club when called-upon down the stretch run heading to a World Series victory doesn't qualify as "ready to contribute to the big league club?"

 

It's just absolute bull-honkey reasoning.

 

There's a big difference between developing a player and throwing them in as a full-time starter before they're ready to contribute. If Anderson were hitting over .300 with 30 homers with an OBP around .400 and near the team lead in runs and RBI, I'd call him up. But he's not (and only close on BA). There's a reason he isn't generally considered one of the absolute prime prospects in baseball, and it's because he's not an elite hitter. The guy has an .831 OPS in AAA for christ's sake, and he's supposed to come in and hit? IF he actually starts full-time next year, I'd expect at least a .100 point dropoff, maybe more. The guy simply hasn't shown that he's ready to consistenly hit good pitching yet.

 

How exactly did he "contribute the major league club" when he was called up? He hit .179 with no walks! He had 6 hits and 3 RBI, and 3 of those hits and all of the RBI came in one game! He struck out 12 times in 34 at bats! Raul Cassanova and Joe Borchard were called up down the stretch too. Are we going to start them on Opening Day too? I don't really care if the guy has "shown improvement" or not when considering whether or not to call someone up. I want to know whether or not he can hit major league pitching or not. I'd say that answer is no. He's exactly the kind of hitter we need to avoid in our lineup, someone who's going to strike out a ton and not walk that much. The difference between AAA and the majors is massive, so I'd really like to see more from one of our top prospects before we throw him into the fire.

 

I don't have a problem with replacing Rowand with someone that can hit. However, Anderson is not the answer, and Damon would be the only significant improvement I see in FA. I'd really like to see more from Anderson considering that there's only one decent season at AAA that tells us he's even close to ready. I believe I said the same thing when people were trying to put Jeremy Reed in our starting lineup before we traded him. Ask the Mariners how that worked out for them. I'm sure they're thrilled with the .254 batting average, .322 OBP, and .675 OPS. Also remember that Reed's a better contact hitter and took more walks than Anderson. As I've said before, I'd much rather have us deal him, put him in AAA, or make him the 4th outfielder than start him in CF. I just can't see that going well.

[RockRaines]

This type of thinking fails to take anything other than hesitancy into account.

 

"the only solution"???

 

So, we're afraid to take a chance now?  We're afraid to trust our scouting and player development people?  We're afraid to replace a disappointing offensive player with one who has a higher ceiling but may struggle initially?

 

We're not replacing our heart of the order.  We're replacing perhaps our weakest offensive player, here.

I agree with you on letting Anderson get his shot. But A-row should have the chance to prove that last year was a down year, especially because his presence in the clubhouse.

[Randar68]

I agree with you on letting Anderson get his shot.  But A-row should have the chance to prove that last year was  a down year, especially because his presence in the clubhouse.

 

Look, one of the reasons I am so adamant about this is the Sox have 4 VERY GOOD OF prospects with the chance to make the MLB club between now and opening day 2007. The sooner you find out what you have with Anderson and break him in full-time, the better position you'll be in for 2007 and determining what you have and where these other kids fit in.

 

Rowand having a very down year in many ways makes him less worthy of a shot to prove what he can do. You now have no idea what you'll get from him either, and you certainly can't consider him a player worth building around. Anderson is no slouch in the clubhouse. Everyone loves that guy too, so I'm not sure it matters all that much in the end.

[3E8]

And how do you figure that he's taken walks wherever he's been? The most he's taken in any one year was 48. In 248 career minor league games, he has 101 walks. Even if he kept that rate constant in the majors, which is highly unlikely, that comes out to about 66 walks in a 162 game season.

He will not touch that rate. As it will be his first full year in the big leagues, plus he will be batting 7th or 8th, I'd be surprised if he topped 40 BB's.

[Randar68]

I don't have a problem with replacing Rowand with someone that can hit. However, Anderson is not the answer, and Damon would be the only significant improvement I see in FA. I'd really like to see more from Anderson considering that there's only one decent season at AAA that tells us he's even close to ready. I believe I said the same thing when people were trying to put Jeremy Reed in our starting lineup before we traded him. Ask the Mariners how that worked out for them. I'm sure they're thrilled with the .254 batting average, .322 OBP, and .675 OPS. Also remember that Reed's a better contact hitter and took more walks than Anderson. As I've said before, I'd much rather have us deal him, put him in AAA, or make him the 4th outfielder than start him in CF. I just can't see that going well.

 

So, you expect a .100 point dropoff in average between 2005 AAA and 2006 major leagues? Yeah, ok. Kid has adjusted and adjusted quickly at every level, was a top 10 prospect in the International League, yet he's not considered a good prospect, ok...

 

Your reasoning is utter horses***, pure and simple. Top to bottom.

 

Yeah, let's go after Johnny Damon when we have 4 top OF prosepcts within 1-2 years of the majors...

 

This is like arguing with a brick wall

[3E8]

So, you expect a .100 point dropoff in average between 2005 AAA and 2006 major leagues?

Zoom never said this.

Edited October 31, 2005 by 3E8

[Randar68]

Zoom never said this.

 

sorry, he meant in OPS, my bad. Nonetheless. A .100 point dropoff in OPS would put him where Rowand was this year. So what's the difference other than about 3 million dollars?

 

Developing him while winning or stiffling his development?

 

It just makes zero sense when discussing the development of your own players. It's how you build and sustain a winner on a non-Yankee/Boston payroll. Hell, look at all the young guys Houston had in the field on a similar payroll.

[ZoomSlowik]

So, you expect a .100 point dropoff in average between 2005 AAA and 2006 major leagues?  Yeah, ok.  Kid has adjusted and adjusted quickly at every level, was a top 10 prospect in the International League, yet he's not considered a good prospect, ok...

 

Your reasoning is utter horses***, pure and simple.  Top to bottom.

 

Yeah, let's go after Johnny Damon when we have 4 top OF prosepcts within 1-2 years of the majors...

 

This is like arguing with a brick wall  

 

You're putting words in my mouth again. I didn't say his average would drop 100 points. I was clearly talking about his OPS in the section I mentioned that. A 100 point drop in OPS would put him in roughly the same region as Rowand, although I consider that a best case scenario.

 

Also, I did not say sign Johnny Damon. I said he's the only CF I see as a signifcant upgrade. Learning to read is fun!

 

I also didn't say he was a horses*** prospect, I said he wasn't a great one. I have yet to see one set of rankings that puts him in anywhere near the top 25 (generally below 50), which tells me he generally isn't regarded as an elite option that will make an instant impact at the major league level.

 

You rip on my logic, but how is it logical to conclude that his numbers will stay the same when the quality of competition drastically increases? How does having a year of experience in the majors guarantee that he's going to be a better player because of it the following year? How often does a rookie come in and become more than a bottom of the lineup hitter? There's only a handful every year, and Anderson isn't going to be one of them. He's going to be a 7-9 hitter the whole year, even if he hits the top end of my projections.

 

I'm done with this argument, because you simply can't understand that Anderson is almost certainly not going to exceed or even come close to matching Rowand's numbers from this past year, and that a year in the majors doesn't necessarily mean he's going to become a competent major league starter the following year. You also seem to think that keeping him at AAA will certainly stiffle his development. How has Ryan Howard done with all of his time in the minors? How's Scott Podsednik doing? Pat Burrell? All of them are above average major league players that spent a lot of time in the minors. It's more likely that throwing him in the majors before he's ready will stiffle his development.

 

Minor league performance is simply not a good indicator of major league performance, especially when you only have on full year at any level to base projections on. It's better than guessing, but not by a whole lot. I'd be willing to bet that if Anderson gets the starting job and keeps it, he hits under .250, walks less than 50 times, and if he gets 500 at bats will strike out 120 times. I simply don't see how starting him in CF to start the year helps our organization. Rowand simply isn't making enough money to be considered an issue. How does a $3.25 million player really hurt a team with an $80 mil payroll? Virtually any player that's on the open market that has shown he can perform at the major league level will make that.

 

This is the last you hear from me on the topic, unless I'm forced to respond to some more words you put in my mouth.

Edited October 31, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[Randar68]

Minor league performance is simply not a good indicator of major league performance, especially when you only have on full year at any level to base projections on. It's better than guessing, but not by a whole lot. I'd be willing to bet that if Anderson gets the starting job and keeps it, he hits under .250, walks less than 50 times, and if he gets 500 at bats will strike out 120 times. I simply don't see how starting him in CF to start the year helps our organization. Rowand simply isn't making enough money to be considered an issue. How does a $3.25 million player really hurt a team with an $80 mil payroll? Virtually any player that's on the open market that has shown he can perform at the major league level will make that.

 

You're doing it by blindy fudging stats that have no real bearing on what player A versus Player B will do when they reach the majors. I'm basing it on watching the kid play.

 

You take your pick. I know you've already formed a rigid opinion about him and the expectations of him (especially since you claim he can't approach Rowand's performance, even though you say you expected a .100 point OPS drop, putting him almost EXACTLY even with Rowand)...

 

Basically, you chose to use horses*** useless statistical blind guesses about a player you've almost never seen play the game of baseball. I'd rather use my 2 eyes.

 

Thanks for playing this week's version of

 

"I'm a moron because I like to blindly use statistics to gauge a prospect's ability"