Jerry Owens

[RockRaines]

Thanks for playing this week's version of

 

"I'm a moron because I like to blindly use statistics to gauge a prospect's ability"

is this really necessary?

[ZoomSlowik]

You take your pick.  I know you've already formed a rigid opinion about him and the expectations of him (especially since you claim he can't approach Rowand's performance, even though you say you expected a .100 point OPS drop, putting him almost EXACTLY even with Rowand)...

 

Basically, you chose to use horses*** useless statistical blind guesses about a player you've almost never seen play the game of baseball.  I'd rather use my 2 eyes.

 

Thanks for playing this week's version of

 

"I'm a moron because I like to blindly use statistics to gauge a prospect's ability"

 

Do the words "at least" or "best case" mean anything to you? In the "best case scenario" he matches Rowand's performance. This means that he probably falls well short, as I've said before.

 

So basically you're arguing that biased qualitative data is better than quantitative data? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in quite some time. Professional scouts can't reliably guage what a prospect will do in the majors, so what makes you think you can? So here's a question: did you watch Rowand play in AAA so you could accurately guage where the two players were at the same point in their career? He had very similar numbers to Anderson in his last year at AAA. Granted Anderson was better at the lower levels, but A-ball stats are even more worthless. I'm sorry, but I'll take the guy who hit .270 in the majors over a guy that hit .295 at AAA every time if the power numbers are relatively equal. Why can't you see that a K/BB ratio as bad as Anderson's is a really bad sign for his immediate chances in the majors? It's gives you a much better picture that whatever you think you can see in a game against guys that will mostly be bagging groceries in a couple of years. When trying to predict what a player will do at the MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL, actual major league performance is considerably more reliable than minor league statistics or "what you've seen" in a prospect. I'd much rather have a quality defensive player that I'm confident isn't going to hit .240 than a giant question mark in center. Get back to me in a year when Anderson has some more experience under his belt.

 

I'm done.

[GoodAsGould]

Zoom no offense.... even though Randar can be a jackass sometimes he is one of the most knowledgable people when it comes to the minors for the White Sox and Rowand was really lousy this season..... For people that have actually seen Anderson they know he is a better defensive CF too....

[BlackBetsy]

You're doing it by blindy fudging stats that have no real bearing on what player A versus Player B will do when they reach the majors.  I'm basing it on watching the kid play.

 

 

But if that's the case, then you are basing your statements about Anderson on subjective criteria. In other words, your judgment is that Anderson will produce about the same as Rowand next year.

 

But, since your opinion is subjective, it is essentially impossible to argue that you are wrong. But it's also impossible for you to prove that you are right.

 

I note that Rowand put up an .868 OPS in Charlotte in 2001, but then put up a .692 OPS in Chicago in 2002. So a .100 point drop in OPS is not out of the question.

 

I'm not sure who the real Rowand is, the one with a .900 OPS in 2004, or the one with the piss-poor .736 OPS in 2005. If he's really in the middle - an .820 OPS, then he's a very, very valuable player as a CF.

[Rowand44]

Zoom no offense.... even though Randar can be a jackass sometimes he is one of the most knowledgable people when it comes to the minors for the White Sox and Rowand was really lousy this season..... For people that have actually seen Anderson they know he is a better defensive CF too....

Anderson isn't a better defensive cf then Aaron. Brian's good but he's not better, anyways if a trade came along where we could get a big bat with Aaron being the centerpiece I'd definitely do it and let Brian play CF.

[Randar68]

Anderson isn't a better defensive cf then Aaron.  Brian's good but he's not better, anyways if a trade came along where we could get a big bat with Aaron being the centerpiece I'd definitely do it and let Brian play CF.

 

Well, based on your Username, it'll be hard to argue your objectivity. Rowand will not be the centerpiece in any big deal, he's just not that valuable.

[Randar68]

But if that's the case, then you are basing your statements about Anderson on subjective criteria.  In other words, your judgment is that Anderson will produce about the same as Rowand next year.

 

But, since your opinion is subjective, it is essentially impossible to argue that you are wrong.  But it's also impossible for you to prove that you are right.

 

I note that Rowand put up an .868 OPS in Charlotte in 2001, but then put up a .692 OPS in Chicago in 2002.  So a .100 point drop in OPS is not out of the question.

 

I'm not sure who the real Rowand is, the one with a .900 OPS in 2004, or the one with the piss-poor .736 OPS in 2005.  If he's really in the middle - an .820 OPS, then he's a very, very valuable player as a CF.

 

That's a very fair arguement. And yes, when discussing subbjective opinions on a player, that can be the case, I will admit.

 

However, if people really want to use stats as an indicator, need I do a side-by-side comparison of Rowand and Anderson's careers up to the point Anderson is at today? Rowand repeated AA. Anderson spent half a season there. Rowand had 1715 minor league At-bats. Anderson has only had 936...

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/aaron-rowand.shtml

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/b...nderson-3.shtml

 

I've done this before, I'll just leave it at this. These links should be just about all I have to show in terms of statistics.

 

If people are chickens*** to start Anderson because he might struggle, so be it. It is what it is. Rowand struggled all year, how is Anderson going to be any worse?

 

Anderson has shown the propensity to make far quicker adjustements to the level of play than Aaron Rowand ever has, which is a primary reason why I think the taste he got this year, plus spring training, will have him ready to take over capably on opening day.

 

There is more to baseball than statistics. The more you know about the game of baseball and about the mentalities and personalities of certain players the better position you'll be in to forcast their performance.

 

Everyone within the organization, at various minor league facilities, fellow players, etc that I've ever spoken to about Brian Anderson has just RAVED about the kid, his physical ability and his skills as a hitter and his learning curve.

 

If someone wants to be utterly dense about it and keep repeating some statistics and showing obvious fear of any prospect struggling, then I'm gonna call it for what it is.

 

Few transitions are seamless, and that is all the more reason to make the change now when you're only counting on a kid to be a 7/8/9 hitter, as opposed to a year or 2 down the line when you're expecting him to step in and perform a more crucial role while breaking in additional players.

Edited October 31, 2005 by Randar68

[CWSGuy406]

Minor league performance is simply not a reliable predictor for major league success. There are a lot of guys that kick ass at AA or AAA that never do anything of import in the majors. Even when they make it, many take a couple of years to get there. Very few make an impact in their first year. Anderson's K to BB ratios in the minors don't mean squat. In his brief time in the majors, he had a 0/12 K/BB ratio in 34 at bats. Needless to say that needs to improve drastically.

 

:headshake :headshake

 

So, you expect a .100 point dropoff in average between 2005 AAA and 2006 major leagues?  Yeah, ok.  Kid has adjusted and adjusted quickly at every level, was a top 10 prospect in the International League, yet he's not considered a good prospect, ok...

 

Yeah, let's go after Johnny Damon when we have 4 top OF prosepcts within 1-2 years of the majors...

 

Zoom never said any of this...

 

 

I guess I should try and make some use of this post rather than just stirring the pot...

 

I basically feel that the Sox shouldn't feel like they have to trade Rowand -- but, if a team wants to give us a big bat and they want Rowand as a centerpiece to the deal, then I'd do it. I've brought it up in the PaleHose forum, but, say a bat like Gary Sheffield's. Or, if the Reds are looking for a real centerfielder, one who can, you know, play a little defense -- then Adam Dunn.

 

But, I'd hope that they're not just trading Rowand because Anderson is waiting in the wings. If the right deal comes along, pull the trigger knowing that you're saving yourself some money, and mainaining the defense -- the offense is in question, as Anderson could turn out to be a very excellent offensive player, or just an average one.

Edited October 31, 2005 by CWSGuy406

[GoodAsGould]

:headshake  :headshake

Zoom never said any of this...

 

B4 you try to correct someone maybe you should read the whole thread and see he corrected himself.

[CWSGuy406]

B4 you try to correct someone maybe you should read the whole thread and see he corrected himself.

 

Where is this? I saw him say "my bad" for the .100 point OPS differential, yet Zoom still didn't say that the Sox should go after Johnny Damon, nor that Brian Anderson was a bad prospect. Not ANYWHERE.

 

So, no, SF101, he didn't correct himself, and I think we can have intelligent baseball discussion without all the name-calling. And, I'd hope I wouldn't need to point out all of those to you... :rolly

[Randar68]

:headshake  :headshake

Zoom never said any of this...

I guess I should try and make some use of this post rather than just stirring the pot...

 

I basically feel that the Sox shouldn't feel like they have to trade Rowand -- but, if a team wants to give us a big bat and they want Rowand as a centerpiece to the deal, then I'd do it.  I've brought it up in the PaleHose forum, but, say a bat like Gary Sheffield's.  Or, if the Reds are looking for a real centerfielder, one who can, you know, play a little defense -- then Adam Dunn. 

 

But, I'd hope that they're not just trading Rowand because Anderson is waiting in the wings.  If the right deal comes along, pull the trigger knowing that you're saving yourself some money, and mainaining the defense -- the offense is in question, as Anderson could turn out to be a very excellent offensive player, or just an average one.

 

You guys are VASTLY overrating Aaron Rowand. We're talking about a #7 or 8 hitter on most teams. <.750 ops cf who is not a top-of-the-order hitter.>

 

He makes 3.25 million. The reason you trade him is to get a lefty specialist to replace Marte and trade his ass. Or something similar in regard to freeing up that money to go to other players you'd like to acquire, like Furcal, Giles, a DH/1B in trade, etc etc... If you can work him into one of those other deals, fine, do it.

 

Centerpiece of a trade for Sheffield or Dunn? Pass the crack pipe.

 

You have 3 OF prospects on the heels of Anderson. You play him now, figure out what you have, and go from there. Rowand was anything but a crucial offensive asset this year, nothing Anderson can't replace, especially if they actually address the #3 hitter problem in the offseason and resign Pauly.

Edited October 31, 2005 by Randar68

[GoodAsGould]

Where is this?  I saw him say "my bad" for the .100 point OPS differential, yet Zoom still didn't say that the Sox should go after Johnny Damon, nor that Brian Anderson was a bad prospect.  Not ANYWHERE.

 

So, no, SF101, he didn't correct himself, and I think we can have intelligent baseball discussion without all the name-calling.  And, I'd hope I wouldn't need to point out all of those to you...  :rolly

 

I quoted the wrong person my bad ...... i didnt do any name calling to Zoom even though I disagree w/ everything he says.

[CWSGuy406]

He makes 3.25 million.  The reason you trade him is to get a lefty specialist to replace Marte and trade his ass.  Or something similar in regard to freeing up that money to go to other players you'd like to acquire, like Furcal, Giles, a DH/1B in trade, etc etc...  If you can work him into one of those other deals, fine, do it.

 

If Williams trades Rowand, and all he can get for him is a LOOGY, then I will never get in another arguement with you again.

 

You're vastly underrating Rowand if you think that's all the Sox can get for him.

 

-He isn't a defensive liability. He's one of the best centerfielders in all of baseball, actually, and that in itself is worth a whole lot. I'm very happy the Sox have one great defensive centerfielder, much less another one waiting in the wings.

 

-3.25 million isn't a whole lot of money. For a league average hitting, great defensive centerfielder, that's a bargain.

 

If you're telling me that if Kenny Williams would call up Brian Cashman and ask him what he thinks Aaron Rowand is worth, and you think that Cashman would respond with "Alan Embree" -- then I think you're crazy.

[3E8]

However, if people really want to use stats as an indicator, need I do a side-by-side comparison of Rowand and Anderson's careers up to the point Anderson is at today?  Rowand repeated AA.  Anderson spent half a season there.  Rowand had 1715 minor league At-bats.  Anderson has only had 936...

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/aaron-rowand.shtml

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/b...nderson-3.shtml

 

I've done this before, I'll just leave it at this.  These links should be just about all I have to show in terms of statistics.

Podsednik had 2772 minor league at-bats, and you now consider him one of the best leadoff hitters in the majors. He repeated A four times, and AA three times. He also had a huge sophomore slump in his second full season of big league play, just like Rowand. And don't tell me how Rowand had three semi-seasons to get adjusted to the bigs before his first full year, because you yourself said making a rookie a part-time player is a terrible way to initialize them. So there is a counter-point to your argument.

 

I don't care if Rowand or Anderson starts in center next year, but one of them needs to be moved this offseason. Depends on what the trade market wants.

[BlackBetsy]

You guys are VASTLY overrating Aaron Rowand.  We're talking about a #7 or 8 hitter on most teams.  <.750 ops cf who is not a top-of-the-order hitter.>

 

 

Well. the question is whether Rowand is a <.750 ops hitter like in or a> .900 OPS hitter like in 2005. It's not far to say that he'll only ever be a <.750 ops guy because he has been a>.900 OPS guy.

 

The question the Sox face is much more dynamic than Rowand vs. Anderson. There's Chris Young coming up faster than most expected. Truth be told, I think he's the best of the bunch. He's a .290/.390/.520 guy, I think. And where does Sweeney play when his power catches up with his swing.

 

Mind you, that does not even take into account the man that was the origina subject of this thread.

 

These are all good problems to have.

[3E8]

The question the Sox face is much more dynamic than Rowand vs. Anderson.  There's Chris Young coming up faster than most expected.  Truth be told, I think he's the best of the bunch.  He's a .290/.390/.520 guy, I think.  And where does Sweeney play when his power catches up with his swing.

BTF published 2006 ZiPS projections including the four players you just mentioned in this paragraph. It's worth a look.

 

2006 White Sox ZiPS Projections

[GoodAsGould]

Well. the question is whether Rowand is a <.750 ops hitter like in or a> .900 OPS hitter like in 2005.  It's not far to say that he'll only ever be a <.750 ops guy because he has been a>.900 OPS guy.

 

The question the Sox face is much more dynamic than Rowand vs. Anderson.  There's Chris Young coming up faster than most expected.  Truth be told, I think he's the best of the bunch.  He's a .290/.390/.520 guy, I think.  And where does Sweeney play when his power catches up with his swing.

 

Mind you, that does not even take into account the man that was the origina subject of this thread.

 

These are all good problems to have.

 

Your right about Young being the best prospect of the bunch with the highest ceiling.... but he still has to do a season of AAA at least b4 we need to worry about finding a spot for him.... and if the sox plan to use Anderson ever the best time is next season....Imagine in 2007 we could have 2 OF prospects ready for the majors and possibly a third in Owens....You really want to rely on a bunch of rookies in 2007 or break them in 1 at a time.

[maggsmaggs]

BTF published 2006 ZiPS projections including the four players you just mentioned in this paragraph.  It's worth a look.

 

2006 White Sox ZiPS Projections

What are Zips Projections? Are they just computer generated stats? If so, this is another reason to hate sabermetric in baseball because after the game was meant to be played on the field not on the computer. The Sox numbers all seem ridiculous.

[GoodAsGould]

What are Zips Projections?  Are they just computer generated stats?  If so, this is another reason to hate sabermetric in baseball because after the game was meant to be played on the field not on the computer.  The Sox numbers all seem ridiculous.

 

Those stats have Frank Thomas being caugh stealing once! Impossible we all know Frank is a speed demon on the base paths

[BlackBetsy]

BTF published 2006 ZiPS projections including the four players you just mentioned in this paragraph.  It's worth a look.

 

2006 White Sox ZiPS Projections

Interesting stuff. This says that Young would be probably the best of all of them in 2006.

 

I'm actually inclined to agree. I just love the way Young adjusted throughout the year at Birmingham and hit better essentially every month.

 

I really could see C-Y and B-Mac being the cornerstones of the franchise from '07-'17. Throw in Sweeney (if he gets his power) and Valido (if he gets some patience), and you could have a really strong home-grown nucleus.

[Randar68]

Podsednik had 2772 minor league at-bats, and you now consider him one of the best leadoff hitters in the majors.  He repeated A four times, and AA three times.  He also had a huge sophomore slump in his second full season of big league play, just like Rowand.  And don't tell me how Rowand had three semi-seasons to get adjusted to the bigs before his first full year, because you yourself said making a rookie a part-time player is a terrible way to initialize them.  So there is a counter-point to your argument.

 

We're comparing 2 players who are not all that dissimilar (Rowand/Anderson). Looking at what each of them did, when they did it, in their developmental path is a valuable comparison. Scott Podsednik doesn't have a damned thing to do with any of this, does he?

 

So... WTF is your point? There is an example of every kind of case if you want to look it up. You wanna compare Brian Anderson and Aaron Rowand, then Scott Podsednik has as much to do with that comparison as herpes on an elephant's dick.

[Randar68]

Well. the question is whether Rowand is a <.750 ops hitter like in or a> .900 OPS hitter like in 2005.  It's not far to say that he'll only ever be a <.750 ops guy because he has been a>.900 OPS guy.

 

The question the Sox face is much more dynamic than Rowand vs. Anderson.  There's Chris Young coming up faster than most expected.  Truth be told, I think he's the best of the bunch.  He's a .290/.390/.520 guy, I think.  And where does Sweeney play when his power catches up with his swing.

 

Mind you, that does not even take into account the man that was the origina subject of this thread.

 

These are all good problems to have.

 

I doubt Rowand is as bad as he showed this year, but he also failed to make adjustments this year. However, looking at Rowand's career numbers, the .905 OPS appears to be a SIGNIFICANT outlier.

 

You're right, these are good problems to have.

[Randar68]

If Williams trades Rowand, and all he can get for him is a LOOGY, then I will never get in another arguement with you again. 

 

You're vastly underrating Rowand if you think that's all the Sox can get for him. 

 

-He isn't a defensive liability.  He's one of the best centerfielders in all of baseball, actually, and that in itself is worth a whole lot.  I'm very happy the Sox have one great defensive centerfielder, much less another one waiting in the wings.

 

-3.25 million isn't a whole lot of money.  For a league average hitting, great defensive centerfielder, that's a bargain.

 

If you're telling me that if Kenny Williams would call up Brian Cashman and ask him what he thinks Aaron Rowand is worth, and you think that Cashman would respond with "Alan Embree" -- then I think you're crazy.

 

Please tell me what centerpiece Rowand is. How ludicrous are you being? Rowand has a good series in NY and Cashman is going to lose his jock over it? This man is an established general manager. You don't make decisions based on 3-game series performance.

 

What is the market for a .750 OPS defensive CF'er who hits in the 7/8/9 spot?

 

$3.25 million isn't a lot of money when it's someone else's money. The difference between Rowand and Anderson is almost 3 million dollars. You're telling me you couldn't use that to upgrade other positions in need of upgrade?

 

KW would be wise to get a lefty reliever for Rowand so he can trade Marte and in the process dump a combined 5 million dollars to use toward filling the #3 hole in the order or resigning Konerko. Far more important questions than debating "what's the difference between Brian Anderson and Aaron Rowand."

 

Again, you overvalue Aaron Rowand SIGNIFICANTLY. Put down the Sox kool-aid and find your way back to reality.

Edited November 1, 2005 by Randar68

[fathom]

I'm not accusing him, but I think MLB executives would like to see Rowand put up better offensive numbers in a post-2004 baseball era before they start trading away important pieces of their franchise.

[BlackBetsy]

Please tell me what centerpiece Rowand is.  How ludicrous are you being? 

KW would be wise to get a lefty reliever for Rowand so he can trade Marte and in the process dump a combined 5 million dollars to use toward filling the #3 hole in the order or resigning Konerko.  Far more important questions than debating "what's the difference between Brian Anderson and Aaron Rowand."

 

Again, you overvalue Aaron Rowand SIGNFICANTLY.  Put down the Sox kool-aid and find your way back to reality.

You've got to get more than a lefty reliever for Rowand. I wouldn't mind the Sox packaging Rowand and El Duque to pick up Aubrey Huff + a reliever from Tampa.