John Sickels Prospect Retro:

[CWSGuy406]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/...2/50#commenttop

[Rowand44]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/...2/50#commenttop

Neal has to deceptive of a fastball to regress a whole bunch. When hitters can't pick up the heater out of his hand like that it's going to be hard to hit him. I'm not a huge fan of the whole k/bb ratio. I would like him to cut down on the walks a bit but I really don't care how many guys he's striking out. Long story short, I think Neal is and will be one of the best relievers in baseball for a while.

[fathom]

I avoided saying anything about this in the playoffs out of fear of jinxing him, but it's amazing that a pitcher who throws a lot of high fastballs only gave up ONE homer this season (a homer to J. Dubois that didn't matter).

[Rex Hudler]

Note that H/IP has a lot to do with team defense and luck. Will Cotts be as hit-lucky in '05 as he was in '04?

 

It's comments like these that drive me bananas. Yes, there is luck involved when you are a pitcher. But whether a hit ball or not becomes an out is often due to the pitcher hitting his spots and setting up the hitter.

 

Sometimes hitters hit good pitches hard or they bloop them for a base hit, but hitting the proper part of the strike zone and keeping hitter's guessing accounts for more than pure luck.

 

Anyone that doesn't get this, just doesn't understand baseball. Or at least hasn't pitched. I'm sure he was generalizing there, but let's not be afraid to give the pitcher a little credit when ratios improve. Strikeouts and walks are not the only part of an at bat a pitcher controls.

[AddisonStSox]

Thoughout the course of the playoffs, I just kept telling my buddies, "I can't imagine trying to hit a Neal Cotts fastball."

 

If you've watched him pitch regularly, it's pretty easy to tell he has one of the sneakiest fastballs in the league. Hands down. When on, and coming in at that angle, that frickin' thing can be untouchable.

[BlackBetsy]

Thoughout the course of the playoffs, I just kept telling my buddies, "I can't imagine trying to hit a Neal Cotts fastball."

 

If you've watched him pitch regularly, it's pretty easy to tell he has one of the sneakiest fastballs in the league.  Hands down.  When on, and coming in at that angle, that frickin' thing can be untouchable.

 

Yup. During Game 1, I thought the Astro hitters looked much worse against Neal's fastball than they did against Jenks' heater. It looked 2-3 mph quicker than Jenks, even. It's the deceptiveness that makes the difference.

 

Then I found out after the game that Cotts threw one of his fastballs 94 mph. With his deceptiveness, I'm not sure there is a hitter that could touch that. My guess is that it gets on a hitter like a 102+ fastball.

 

If Neal had a good #2 pitch, he'd be a good starter. If he had a good #3 pitch, too, I think he'd be a dominant starter.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

When a guy walked as many as cotts did before, you start to think its just a concentration issue. I think that maybe he's not going to be a guy who can sustain success for 6-7 innings consistently. He's become one hell of a bullpen guy though. I think the prospect-lover in me before thought it was bad to send him to the pen because being a middle guy is considered a failure to fans. He sure was valuable to us though. I think he's too valuable to move back to the rotation any time soon which means I doubt he ever moves back

[Rowand44]

It's comments like these that drive me bananas.  Yes, there is luck involved when you are a pitcher.  But whether a hit ball or not becomes an out is often due to the pitcher hitting his spots and setting up the hitter.

 

Sometimes hitters hit good pitches hard or they bloop them for a base hit, but hitting the proper part of the strike zone and keeping hitter's guessing accounts for more than pure luck. 

 

Anyone that doesn't get this, just doesn't understand baseball.  Or at least hasn't pitched.  I'm sure he was generalizing there, but let's not be afraid to give the pitcher a little credit when ratios improve.  Strikeouts and walks are not the only part of an at bat a pitcher controls.

[daa84]

It's comments like these that drive me bananas.  Yes, there is luck involved when you are a pitcher.  But whether a hit ball or not becomes an out is often due to the pitcher hitting his spots and setting up the hitter.

 

Sometimes hitters hit good pitches hard or they bloop them for a base hit, but hitting the proper part of the strike zone and keeping hitter's guessing accounts for more than pure luck. 

 

Anyone that doesn't get this, just doesn't understand baseball.  Or at least hasn't pitched.  I'm sure he was generalizing there, but let's not be afraid to give the pitcher a little credit when ratios improve.  Strikeouts and walks are not the only part of an at bat a pitcher controls.

rex i cant agree more. i think the new school methods of statistical analysis are incredibly interesting and useful, especially the defensive ratings. however if there is one part of their methodology that i simply cannot accept is that "the only things pitchers control are home runs, strike outs and walks." to say that a pitcher who gives up alot of base hits or a little amount of base hits is lucky or unlucky is simply proposterous to me. watch buerhle pitch, he is effective by sawing people off, or getting them to reach. hes not a swing and miss pitcher, and his ability to do a lot of little things well adds up to compensate for his high BAA (ie holding runners, throwing ground balls, not walking batters)