2006 salary analysis

[Greg Hibbard]

2006 Contracts

 

Freddy Garcia $10mil

Jose Contreras $7.0mil

Mark Buehrle $7.75mil

Jermaine Dye $5.0 mil

El Duque $4.5 mil

Tad Iguchi $2.4 mil

Juan Uribe $3.15 mil

Rowand $3.25 mil

Hermanson $3.0 mil

Marte $2.25 mil

Politte $1.2 mil

Podsednik $1.9 mil

 

Grand Total of $51.4 mil in guaranteed contracts

 

Arbitration Eliglble Players and 2005 salary - Estimated 2006 Salary

 

Garland ($3.4 mil) - ($8 mil)

Pierzynski ($2.25 mil) - ($4 mil)

Vizcaino ($1.3 mil) - ($1.75 mil)

Timo! ($1.0 mil) - ($1.25 mil)

Crede ($0.4 mil) - ($2.5 mil)

Harris ($0.365 mil) - ($.775 mil)

Ozuna ($0.330 mil) - ($1 mil)

 

It's hard to say what these guys will get in 2006, and the Sox could end up releasing some of these players. An interesting side note is that the Salary arbitration hearings are set for Feb. 1st-21st, which means if the Sox wait on too many of these players it could hamper them in either resigning Konerko or going after another free agent.

 

Overall it will cost approximately $19.275 mil to keep these players

 

Option eligible players:

 

Frank Thomas has a club option of $12 mil or a $3.5 mil buyout

Carl Everett has a club option of $5 mil or a $0.5 mil buyout

 

My guess is that the Sox will buyout both these players, and will first offer Big Frank a low $1.0 mil base salary with incentives. If he refuses their offer they may try to bring back Carl at a lower price also. It is highly unlikely they will keep both of these players.

 

So 4 million to buyout Frank and Carl, plus 1 million to bring back either/or.

 

players under club's control

 

Neal Cotts ($0.33 mil)

 

I am not entirely sure what this status indicates. It may have something in regards to being arbitration eligible next year.

 

Players likely to be on or considered for the roster

 

RP Jeff Bajenaru

SP Brandon McCarthy

RP Either Arnie Munoz or Felix Diaz or Jon Adkins (possible long reliever replacement)

1B/DH/LF Ross Gload

OF Brian Anderson

OF Joe Borchard

 

All of which are at or around the major league min of $330,000

 

Other Potential Minor Leaguers who could make an impact in 2006

 

Jorge Toca 1B R/R

Josh Stewart SP LHP

Dave Sanders RP LHP

 

Ryan Sweeny OF

Jerry Owens OF

Dan Haiglewood SP

 

Leo Daigle 1B (not really but we can all dream )

Noah Hall 1B

Gio Gonzalez SP LHP

 

So....

 

51.4 million in guaranteed contracts

plus 19.275 millions in estimated arbitration eligible contracts

plus 4 million in Thomas/Everett buyouts

plus 1 million for a 2006 DH

plus 330,000 for Cotts

 

that's already 76 million in guaranteed contracts.

 

The real question is....is will the White Sox go to 90-91 million in total payroll. It will probably not cost more than 14 million to get Konerko.

 

What do you think?

[ZoomSlowik]

I seriously doubt Konerko gets $14 mil, as I've said in virtually every thread it has come up in. As a player, he compares much more favorably with the $10-$12 mil players like Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus, and Adrian Beltre than the likes of Vladimir Guerrero and Carlos Beltran. I think he'll probably get a longer term or higher deal than the first group, but still be less than the more superstar quality players. Because Konerko has low (relatively when compared to other $14 mil+guys) name recognition and wouldn't put as many butts in the seats as someone like Vlad, is starting to get closer to years where his effectiveness has been in question (ie last couple of years of the contract), has some questions concerning past inconsistencies and a favorable park, and plays a fairly easy to fill position, I don't see him getting considerably more than $12 mil, making it more reasonable that he comes back. I have yet to see any indication that a team is going to offer Beltranesque money to acquire Paulie. All of the speculation about him getting more than $12 mil/year is merely conjecture, largely coming from panicky Sox fans like us.

 

All of the information and comments out there seem to indicate that there is a much higher chance that he comes back to the Sox than Magglio or Colon. I'm personally not going to start worrying about it until we hear about significant contract offers from other teams that are on the table. I personally doubt that he gets more than 3 offers over $12 mil, including us.

[rangercal]

I seriously doubt Konerko gets $14 mil, as I've said in virtually every thread it has come up in. As a player, he compares much more favorably with the $10-$12 mil players like Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus, and Adrian Beltre than the likes of Vladimir Guerrero and Carlos Beltran. I think he'll probably get a longer term or higher deal than the first group, but still be less than the more superstar quality players. Because Konerko has low (relatively when compared to other $14 mil+guys) name recognition and wouldn't put as many butts in the seats as someone like Vlad, is starting to get closer to years where his effectiveness has been in question (ie last couple of years of the contract), has some questions concerning past inconsistencies and a favorable park, and plays a fairly easy to fill position, I don't see him getting considerably more than $12 mil, making it more reasonable that he comes back. I have yet to see any indication that a team is going to offer Beltranesque money to acquire Paulie. All of the speculation about him getting more than $12 mil/year is merely conjecture, largely coming from panicky Sox fans like us.

 

All of the information and comments out there seem to indicate that there is a much higher chance that he comes back to the Sox than Magglio or Colon. I'm personally not going to start worrying about it until we hear about significant contract offers from other teams that are on the table. I personally doubt that he gets more than 3 offers over $12 mil, including us.

I think PK may get more than 14 mil. Why? Supply and demand. Especially since the demand for a 1b is from teams like the sawx, Yankees and angels.

[Kyyle23]

I think that JR is going to realize that the reward is going to outweigh the risk on moving the payroll up to around 90 million dollars.

 

He has to realize that the Marlins model is not a model of consistency, it was more of a flash in the pan model because they elected to let their main contributors go the very next year, after both world championships. If JR wants things to keep moving up in terms of financial windfall and in terms of competitiveness, he is going to have to spend a little to make a little.

[AddisonStSox]

I think PK may get more than 14 mil.  Why? Supply and demand.  Especially since the demand for a 1b is from teams like the sawx, Yankees  and angels.

 

I really don't want to get into this discussion too much at this point. But Steinbrenner has gone on record as saying the Yankees will devote more time, money, and effort into Derek Lee after the 2006 season than any other 1B or free agent on the market.

 

Look for Lee to be considered the Yankees staple at 1B.

 

I think you're looking at the Red Sox, Angels, and maybe even a team like the Mets/Dodgers (doubtful) in the hunt for Mr. Konerko.

[BlackBetsy]

A few points:

 

*Garland is unlikely to pop up to $8 million in arbitration. I'd think $6 million is more likely.

 

*No way is Timo back at $1.25 million when Brian Anderson is available.

 

*Not sure the $4 million in buy-outs are applicable in considering next year's salary inasmuch as they are already sunk cost.

 

*Ozuna will probably get something like $400, not $ 1million

 

*Sexson got an average of $12.5 million. I'd expect Paulie to beat Sexson's deal, given that he is the biggest name free agent available. My instinct is $13.5 million over 5 years - $67.5/5. At that price, the Sox might not be in the game.

[rangercal]

I really don't want to get into this discussion too much at this point.  But Steinbrenner has gone on record as saying the Yankees will devote more time, money, and effort into Derek Lee after the 2006 season than any other 1B or free agent on the market.

 

Look for Lee to be considered the Yankees staple at 1B. 

 

I think you're looking at the Red Sox, Angels, and maybe even a team like the Mets/Dodgers (doubtful) in the hunt for Mr. Konerko.

Thats what I'm worried about.... Teams with lots of money to spend after the only Great 1b on the market. The dodgers and mets are also known to OVERPAY. I.e Dreifort , Glavine

[Balta1701]

I think PK may get more than 14 mil.  Why? Supply and demand.  Especially since the demand for a 1b is from teams like the sawx, Yankees  and angels.

With the Angels though, it's worth noting that they really don't have a huge amount of cash to spend this offseason...they have somewhere over $73 million committed to their top 9 guys, and they're estimating needing around $16 million to pay the 14 guys they have in arbitration...thus bringing them to $89 million. Their salary this year was reportedly $97 million, and their GM says it will be "a little higher" next year. None of this includes either signing or replacing Paul Byrd and Bengie Molina. In other words, for them to even offer Konerko more than $12 million, it will mean that their salary will have to jump by about $5 million next year, and that's assuming they replace Byrd and Molina with people making the minimum.

[AddisonStSox]

Thats what I'm worried about.... Teams with lots of money to spend after the only Great 1b on the market.  The dodgers and mets are also known to OVERPAY.  I.e  Dreifort  , Glavine

 

That is a spot-on concern.

 

Also, it is worth noting the Angles are head-over-heels in love with Paul Konerko. No joke.

 

This will be a very interesting entity to watch pan out. Who knows, maybe somewhere amongst this "Pay Me" era we live in, some hometown discounts and levels of hometown favortism, satisfaction will play a roll.

 

This is Paulie's chance to cash in and secure his family's wellbeing for the rest of their lives. You really can't fault the guy for that.

[southsideirish71]

Didnt we pay Ben Freakin Davis a mill to play in AAA this year. He was signed as insurance before we picked up AJ.

And then the money we payed Kevin Walker also.

Edited October 31, 2005 by southsideirish71

[Wedge]

That is a spot-on concern.

 

Also, it is worth noting the Angles are head-over-heels in love with Paul Konerko.  No joke.

 

 

I just don't think the Angels have the finances to make a significantly better offer to Konerko than the Sox do without moving some talent on that team. If they make such a move, then I'm not sure if they're upgrading or not. They have some serious starting rotation issues that need to be resolved, since they'll potentially lose Byrd and Washburn.

 

This will be a very interesting entity to watch pan out.  Who knows, maybe somewhere amongst this "Pay Me" era we live in, some hometown discounts and levels of hometown favortism, satisfaction will play a roll.

 

This is Paulie's chance to cash in and secure his family's wellbeing for the rest of their lives.  You really can't fault the guy for that.

 

This line is BS. They'll be fine for the rest of their lives whether Paul gets $12 million for 4 years or $15 million for 5 years. If Paul really cares about winning, he's going to probably end up back here. The Mets and Dodgers may be willing to overpay, but I don't think either of those teams would seriously contend for another season or two, despite some of the star power on those teams (especially the Mets). If he's not back here, then he's not really serious about being a part of the White Sox.

[White Sox Josh]

With Jenks pretty much now the closer will they keep Hermanson because of his versatility or trade him when his value is high.

[Kalapse]

With Jenks pretty much now the closer will they keep Hermanson because of his versatility or trade him when his value is high.

I'm not really sure how high the trade value is on a 33 year old reliever with a horribly bad back and who's also comming off a career year.

[Greg Hibbard]

I think Garland gets at least 7 million, I guess 8 might be a little high. I was a little pie in the sky with some of the other numbers, trying to shoot at the high end of the range.

 

When it comes down to it, isn't Garland a 60 game winner already? I mean, that's almost as many games as Kerry Wood has won

[White Sox Josh]

I'm not really sure how high the trade value is on a 33 year old reliever with a horribly bad back and who's also comming off a career year.

yeah but he has played through it for most of his career. He had a career year but his trade value has to be a bit high considering he had 34 saves and can start or work out of the pen.

[Steff]

I'm not really sure how high the trade value is on a 33 year old reliever with a horribly bad back and who's also comming off a career year.

 

 

Not to mention he's having surgery and might not even be able to play anymore.

[Wedge]

yeah but he has played through it for most of his career.  He had a career year but his trade value has to be a bit high considering he had 34 saves and can start or work out of the pen.

 

That's pretty much exactly why we should keep him. Jenks was great down the stretch and even in the playoffs, but for some reason, I'm leary of how consistent he can be over an entire season. That's why Hermanson will be pretty valuable to the Sox in 2006. He's essentially going to play the same role going into 2006 that he played going into 2005: back-up closer to a guy who seems to have locked up the job. It's funny, since Shingo and Jenks are obviously at the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of how they pitch.

[Kalapse]

Not to mention he's having surgery and might not even be able to play anymore.

^^

Exactly, there's not much value there.

[Wedge]

Like Steff basically just said, I have a feeling were going to be lucky if Hermanson can even pitch next season, let alone have a season like he did this year.

 

Oh wow, I had no idea how serious the back injury was. In that case, we definitely need another arm in the pen and I'm even more surprised he made the post-season roster over McCarthy.

[aboz56]

Guys who are included in your plan who may not be back:

 

- Timo Perez, especially at that price

- El Duque I believe will be traded, unless the Sox feel he can be a good setup man. If he stays, I could see Vizcaino being traded

- Marte has a good shot of being gone

 

Also, Garland won't get 8 million in arbitration. A better guess would be between 6 and 7 million.

 

Everett won't be back and Thomas WILL be back on an incentive based 2 year deal.

 

Ozuna and Harris won't get increases as large as you indicate either.

[aboz56]

Also, I think Blum could be back based on what type of money he wants.

 

This year he made 575k so if he would take a similar deal I'd keep him but with his family on the West Coast it could also be a longshot.

[LDF]

in all honesty, i believe that jr would do whatever it takes and cost to keep a winning team here, as he did with the bulls. as long as he won the first one, which he did.

 

i know i have gotten flamed in the past defending jr and i will do so, b/c i believe he wants to win.

[joeynach]

2006 Contracts

 

Freddy Garcia  $10mil

Jose Contreras  $7.0mil

Mark Buehrle  $7.75mil

Jermaine Dye  $5.0 mil

El Duque $4.5 mil

Tad Iguchi $2.4 mil

Juan Uribe $3.15 mil

Rowand  $3.25 mil

Hermanson $3.0 mil

Marte $2.25 mil

Politte $1.2 mil

Podsednik $1.9 mil

 

Grand Total of $51.4 mil in guaranteed contracts

 

Arbitration Eliglble Players and 2005 salary - Estimated 2006 Salary

 

Garland ($3.4 mil) - ($8 mil)

Pierzynski ($2.25 mil) - ($4 mil)

Vizcaino ($1.3 mil) - ($1.75 mil)

Timo! ($1.0 mil) - ($1.25 mil)

Crede ($0.4 mil) - ($2.5 mil)

Harris ($0.365 mil) - ($.775 mil)

Ozuna ($0.330 mil) - ($1 mil)

 

It's hard to say what these guys will get in 2006, and the Sox could end up releasing some of these players.  An interesting side note is that the Salary arbitration hearings are set for Feb. 1st-21st, which means if the Sox wait on too many of these players it could hamper them in either resigning Konerko or going after another free agent.

 

Overall it will cost approximately $19.275 mil to keep these players

 

Option eligible players:

 

Frank Thomas has a club option of $12 mil or a $3.5 mil buyout

Carl Everett has a club option of $5 mil or a $0.5 mil buyout

 

My guess is that the Sox will buyout both these players, and will first offer Big Frank a low $1.0 mil base salary with incentives.  If he refuses their offer they may try to bring back Carl at a lower price also.  It is highly unlikely they will keep both of these players.

 

So 4 million to buyout Frank and Carl, plus 1 million to bring back either/or.

 

players under club's control

 

Neal Cotts ($0.33 mil)

 

I am not entirely sure what this status indicates.  It may have something in regards to being arbitration eligible next year.

 

Players likely to be on or considered for the roster

 

RP Jeff Bajenaru

SP Brandon McCarthy

RP Either Arnie Munoz or Felix Diaz or Jon Adkins (possible long reliever replacement)

1B/DH/LF Ross Gload

OF Brian Anderson

OF Joe Borchard

 

All of which are at or around the major league min of $330,000

 

Other Potential Minor Leaguers who could make an impact in 2006

 

Jorge Toca 1B R/R

Josh Stewart SP LHP

Dave Sanders RP LHP

 

Ryan Sweeny OF

Jerry Owens OF

Dan Haiglewood SP

 

Leo Daigle 1B (not really but we can all dream )

Noah Hall 1B

Gio Gonzalez SP LHP

 

So....

 

51.4 million in guaranteed contracts

plus 19.275 millions in estimated arbitration eligible contracts

plus 4 million in Thomas/Everett buyouts

plus 1 million for a 2006 DH

plus 330,000 for Cotts

 

that's already 76 million in guaranteed contracts.

 

The real question is....is will the White Sox go to 90-91 million in total payroll. It will probably not cost more than 14 million to get Konerko.

 

What do you think?

 

 

Garcia is going to make 9 mil this year not 10 and contreras is going to make 8 mil in 2006.

[BlackBetsy]

Also, I think Blum could be back based on what type of money he wants.

 

This year he made 575k so if he would take a similar deal I'd keep him but with his family on the West Coast it could also be a longshot.

 

Agreed - with young triplets, I'd expect him back in SD or in LA or Phoenix. He's got his memory...now he needs to get back to his family.

[Balta1701]

When people write up numbers like these including Contreras...do they include the green that the Yankees sent us?