Discuss the trade with Phils fans

[phillychuck]

We'd love to hear what you WSox fans have to say about Rowand, Gonzalez, and Haigwood over at http://www.philliesphans.com/phorum/viewforum.php?f=1 .

 

From our perspective, we hate losing probably the classiest guy in baseball and a prototypical LH power bat, but either he or Howard had to be traded, and the salary issue made Thome the expendable one.

 

Something you guys may not have heard is that Thome's rehab regimen has been highly successful--reportedly, he's in the best shape he's been in since his mid-20s. Also, his elbow injury was related to throwing, something he may not have to do much in the AL. We hope he hits 50 HRs for you and we see you in the series.

 

Is Rowand more likely to perform at his 2004 levels, or his 2005 ones? Did he hit many more Groundballs because Ozzie wanted him to, or was it his own idea, or simply a swing mechanics issue? We understand pretty much everyone likes Gonzalez, but Haigwood's numbers are unreal, and he's closer to the majors--is he the real thing?

 

Congrats on a well deserved World Series win.

[Heads22]

Thanks.

[Chisoxfn]

We'd love to hear what you WSox fans have to say about Rowand, Gonzalez, and Haigwood over at http://www.philliesphans.com/phorum/viewforum.php?f=1 . 

 

From our perspective, we hate losing probably the classiest guy in baseball and a prototypical LH power bat, but either he or Howard had to be traded, and the salary issue made Thome the expendable one.

 

Something you guys may not have heard is that Thome's rehab regimen has been highly successful--reportedly, he's in the best shape he's been in since his mid-20s.  Also, his elbow injury was related to throwing, something he may not have to do much in the AL.  We hope he hits 50 HRs for you and we see you in the series.

 

Is Rowand more likely to perform at his 2004 levels, or his 2005 ones?  Did he hit many more Groundballs because Ozzie wanted him to, or was it his own idea, or simply a swing mechanics issue?  We understand pretty much everyone likes Gonzalez, but Haigwood's numbers are unreal, and he's closer to the majors--is he the real thing?

 

Congrats on a well deserved World Series win.

Hey Chuck

 

Thanks for the invite. Let me tell you, Haigwood is the best of the two prospects you get. He doesn't have the hype/love from Baseball America but he's the better pitcher. Thats not a knock on Gio because Gio has good to great stuff but a very slender build. I think a lot of scouts question his durability, plus whenever your in A ball or lower you still got a while so a lot of things can happen.

 

Haigwood has turned it on and really had a tremendous year in Bham (a pitchers park) from his mid-season promotion. The guy has a plus changeup and can locate his other pitches in the zone. He gets good downward action and knows how to show hitters different levels and keep them off balance. Definately not a pure stuff guy, but his changeup is a near plus pitch. Very under-rated prospect you got.

 

I think in terms of Aaron you'll see something closer to 05 as opposed to 04. That said Aaron has more power than he showed this year, but the beautiful thing about Aaron is his personality and defense. He is one of the 5 best defensive centerfielders in the game and knows nothing but 150%.

 

He has problems recognizing breaking balls and really seemed to have problems turning on the ball this year. He usually produces a good number of Xtra base hits and is what I'd deem a smart player. I think he could do something like .275-.285 and 20. Will never be a high OBP guy (unless he's totally raking). That said if you guys get the Aaron of 04, you have yourselves a steal of a trade.

[phillychuck]

My analysis from the Phils' perspective:

 

OK, I like the trade, but mostly because of the two pitchers. I always get a sinking feeling, though, when a team is willing to trade A and AA pitchers--I figure they know them best, and they've decided they're not going to be successful in the majors, that AAA or ML hitters are going to figure them out, or they have delivery flaws that will likely lead to injuries. Gonzalez is someone I remember from the pre-draft issues, and I have to admit that if Haigwood were in the Phils system, his performance stats would have me screaming about him being underrated.

 

Rowand would be a fine CF if he plays about halfway between his 2004 and 2005 years--I'll take .290/.345/.466 for an 811 OPS from a good defensive CF. If he can stop hitting ground balls so frequently (which he might if he gets away from Ozzie Guillen) he may actually be a bit better than that. He's a very good defensive player from observation (I haven't seen his defensive stats)--a guy who has decent speed and goes hard all the time for balls. He wouldn't be a bad #2 hitter if he takes just a few more walks, but he probably fits best in the 6 hole.

 

My only major regrets regarding this trade are that 1. I'll miss Jim Thome --as they say, "Jim, we hardly knew ye." and 2. I was really hoping Victorino would get a legit shot at starting in CF. I suspect that Rowand's rep as a clutch, clubhouse-leader type secures the job for him. It's also going to cut Michaels' playing time unless he finds a first-baseman's glove somewhere.

 

If Gillick flips one of the CFs for a decent starter, or replaces or supplements Bell as a regular, or finds value and a replacement for Lieby I'll begin to get giddy...

[RME JICO]

Do the Phils trade Rowand to shore up another need, or will they keep him to start in the OF?

 

I could see the Yanks and Sawks drooling over Rowand right now. Whoever does not get Damon really could use Rowand.

Edited November 24, 2005 by WinninUgly

[phillychuck]

Too soon to tell--we mat be after Pavano from the Yanks, or Gillick may not like Victorino, our top CF prospect.

[RME JICO]

The Phils still have Burrell, Abreu, Michaels, Victorino, and Chavez as OFs correct? So when you add Rowand, is Michaels now available?

Edited November 24, 2005 by WinninUgly

[Cerbaho-WG]

It'd doubtful that Rowand will ever reproduce his 2004 numbers unless NL pitchers throw him fastball after fastball. Rowand will use the entire field but is very suspect to breaking pitches down and away; he looks flat out clueless on sliders not even close to the plate. For some reason pitchers don't exploit this, but Rowand is a very good fastball and mistake pitcher. Rowand's defense was without a doubt the best in CF for the AL and it wouldn't surprise me to see Rowand continue to play great defense for a few more years. I've never thought highly of Rowand and I think the maximum of what he'll produce is something around his 2005 numbers.

 

As for Haigwood and Gonzalez, both are a mixed bag. Haigwood is interesting because his stats in High-A weren't eye popping and I don't think he deserves all the hype that people have given him since the trade. The main reason for Haigwood's success in AA was that he was pitching in a hitter's graveyard. Looking at Haig's AA stats, especially his G/F ratio, one can see how he benefited from pitching in the Met. I'd like to see him pitch in another park like Winston-Salem before I start saying he's a front of the rotation starter. That being said, he has a very good curveball and can control his fastball well, despite his high walk totals.

 

Gonzalez I'm very neutral on because prep lefties often tear through the lower levels of the minors and then stumble in AA. Has a great curve and gets ahead in the count a lot.

[Hey_Look_Its_Chase_Utley!]

The Phils still have Burrell, Abreu, Michaels, Victorino, and Chavez as OFs correct?  So when you add Rowand, is Michaels now available?

 

There was a report that the Yanks wanted Michaels, but the Phillies said he was off the table, but that could be because of the potential deal they had with the Indians(Coco Crisp and David Riske for Thome and Michaels).

[RME JICO]

There was a report that the Yanks wanted Michaels, but the Phillies said he was off the table, but that could be because of the potential deal they had with the Indians(Coco Crisp and David Riske for Thome and Michaels).

I am just wondering where that leaves Michaels or Rowand. One is the odd man out.

[JoshPR]

Jim Thome Fan CLub?? LOLOLOLOL

 

Give ait a break buddy

[Rex Hudler]

I always get a sinking feeling, though, when a team is willing to trade A and AA pitchers--I figure they know them best, and they've decided they're not going to be successful in the majors, that AAA or ML hitters are going to figure them out, or they have delivery flaws that will likely lead to injuries.

Chuck that is an excellent observation and often very accurate.  Aside from potential durability issues with Gonzalez, I don't think that is the case here.  The Sox were dealing with depth, having other young starters (Liotta, Broadway, Tracey) and are pretty well set at the big league level, with McCarthy ready to step in.  I think the bottom line is the reason you got the players you did, is because Philly gave up so much cash in the deal.  If the Phillies don't pay as much of Thome's salary, the quality of the players you get goes way down.

 

I've seen Haigwood, but not Gonzalez.  I really liked Haigwood as a pitcher.  He may not have ace potential, but he flat out knows how to pitch and his stuff is good enough. 

 

The main reason for Haigwood's success in AA was that he was pitching in a hitter's graveyard. Looking at Haig's AA stats, especially his G/F ratio, one can see how he benefited from pitching in the Met.

 

Cerb, despite the stats you quote, that is just flat out wrong. Haigwood made 5 starts at the Hoover Met and six on the road. He was 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA on the road, definitely indicating his success was not "homemade". The two starts I saw him make did not give any indication the park was any factor at all. When you are buckling knees, making guys swing and miss with the bat flying, and getting weak swings, the park factor is nil.

 

I noted last year that I felt Brandon McCarthy was helped by the Met, giving up lots of deep fly balls that died at the Met warning track, but that was not the case with Haigwood.

Edited November 24, 2005 by Rex Hudler

[Mplssoxfan]

It'd doubtful that Rowand will ever reproduce his 2004 numbers unless NL pitchers throw him fastball after fastball. Rowand will use the entire field but is very suspect to breaking pitches down and away; he looks flat out clueless on sliders not even close to the plate. For some reason pitchers don't exploit this, but Rowand is a very good fastball and mistake pitcher. Rowand's defense was without a doubt the best in CF for the AL and it wouldn't surprise me to see Rowand continue to play great defense for a few more years. I've never thought highly of Rowand and I think the maximum of what he'll produce is something around his 2005 numbers.

 

 

I agree with Cerbaho 100%. AROW, though I love his defense and enthusiasm, has an enormous hole in his swing for weeks at a time. If a righty throws him a curveball or slider low and away, he can't do a damn thing with it. But, if the pitcher makes a mistake, Aaron will punish him.

 

Aaron is so much better than Lofton, though, in every phase of the game -- the Phils have their starting CF for a good long while.

[Soxbadger]

My heart hurts for Rowand, but my head wonders if pitchers would finally find out that the slider down and away really is a weakness.

 

Gio I really think I highly of, and the only reason the Sox were probably willing to give him up is because they see Buerhle, Garland, Garcia, and McCarthy in the future for the next few years, and hope to have found another few pitchers by then. Where as Thome is immediate power.

 

Haigwood could go either way, I think he could be a good innings eater, but whether or not hell be a top player could go either way.

 

I think the trade could be a win for both teams. If Thome produces as he can, the White Sox wont care what they gave up.

 

(EDIT)

 

As always Rex has said it better than I ever could have.

 

SB

Edited November 24, 2005 by Soxbadger

[AngelasDaddy0427]

Let me go on record to say that I think Rowand will be a Yankee by Spring Training...

[Soxpranos]

Jim Thome Fan CLub?? LOLOLOLOL

 

Give ait a break buddy

 

Hater

[JoshPR]

Yup

[SSH2005]

Rowand would be a fine CF if he plays about halfway between his 2004 and 2005 years--I'll take .290/.345/.466 for an 811 OPS from a good defensive CF. If he can stop hitting ground balls so frequently (which he might if he gets away from Ozzie Guillen) he may actually be a bit better than that. He's a very good defensive player from observation (I haven't seen his defensive stats)--a guy who has decent speed and goes hard all the time for balls. He wouldn't be a bad #2 hitter if he takes just a few more walks, but he probably fits best in the 6 hole.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rowand didn't hit a lot of groundballs this past season because of Ozzie Guillen. Unfortunately, he hit a lot of choppers to the shortstop because he was swinging at bad pitches. He batted mostly in the middle of our lineup so he really wasn't asked to move over many runners. He was expected to drive the ball.

Edited November 24, 2005 by SSH2005

[DBAHO]

I've long said with Rowand, if he can post a +.800 OPS, for the excellent defensive CF that he is, he'd slot into almost every team very nicely.

 

Whether he can do that next season, the odds are probably a little in his favor. He had splits of .282/.327/.401 in away games, indicating a higher average but worse plate discipline (60/7 K/BB ratio).

 

So really, if he can cut down on the K's, and increase the BB's a little, he should be able to reach that .800 OPS mark.

[TLAK]

Chuck that is an excellent observation and often very accurate.  Aside from potential durability issues with Gonzalez, I don't think that is the case here.  The Sox were dealing with depth, having other young starters (Liotta, Broadway, Tracey) and are pretty well set at the big league level, with McCarthy ready to step in.  I think the bottom line is the reason you got the players you did, is because Philly gave up so much cash in the deal.  If the Phillies don't pay as much of Thome's salary, the quality of the players you get goes way down.

 

Ding, ding, ding, ding! When I first heard the players involved I thought the Sox overpaid due to Thome's injury year and contract. When I heard about the money it made sense.

 

This is essentially a salary dump from the Phillies side and Gillick did very well getting the players he got. Williams pulled off another of his 'thinking outside the box' deals to bring in a player the White Sox could not afford otherwise. You never know how a trade will actually work out but both GM's seem to me to have accomplished their goals, and neither traded anything he did not have a replacement on hand for.

[gosox41]

We'd love to hear what you WSox fans have to say about Rowand, Gonzalez, and Haigwood over at http://www.philliesphans.com/phorum/viewforum.php?f=1 . 

 

From our perspective, we hate losing probably the classiest guy in baseball and a prototypical LH power bat, but either he or Howard had to be traded, and the salary issue made Thome the expendable one.

 

Something you guys may not have heard is that Thome's rehab regimen has been highly successful--reportedly, he's in the best shape he's been in since his mid-20s.  Also, his elbow injury was related to throwing, something he may not have to do much in the AL.  We hope he hits 50 HRs for you and we see you in the series.

 

Is Rowand more likely to perform at his 2004 levels, or his 2005 ones?  Did he hit many more Groundballs because Ozzie wanted him to, or was it his own idea, or simply a swing mechanics issue?  We understand pretty much everyone likes Gonzalez, but Haigwood's numbers are unreal, and he's closer to the majors--is he the real thing?

 

Congrats on a well deserved World Series win.

 

 

It's good to hear from an intelligent fan of another team when a trade is made. This trade is bigger then just Thome for Rowand for the simple reason that it may mean the end of Frank Thomas in Chicago. He can do exactly what Thome can do for a lot cheaper.

 

I've heard Thome is a classy guy and will fit in the clubhouse we. I am concerned about his elbow injury. It's his right elbow and it did effect his swing in 2005. The question is if he can handle a full season of 500+ at bats and who knows how many swings without it hurting him. Also, doesn't he have back issues?

 

You guys will love Rowand, and I've heard Philadelphia fans are hard to please. He won't be a star but he is hard nosed. He's not afraid of sacrificing his body in CF or breaking up DP's. Hopefully he'll get more power from him then the Sox did in 2005.

 

The 2 Sox pitchers were ranked right behind McCarthy in pitching propsects. That being said, the Sox have had a very difficult time producing productive major league pitchers the last 10 years, especially during the KW regime. Theyb oth have good stuff and hopefully the Phillies coaches will be able to get them to the next level.

 

 

 

Bob

[chitownsportsfan]

"That being said, the Sox have had a very difficult time producing productive major league pitchers the last 10 years, especially during the KW regime."

 

Huh? Buerhe, Garland, Wells, Cotts, Foulke...the list goes on.

 

I wouldn't say the Sox have been "A+++ smiley face" about developing pitchers, but I wouldn't say they have had "a very difficult time" either. Developing Buehrle and Garland into top flight pitchers, (albeit only this year for Garland) does a lot for me.

[SSH2005]

"That being said, the Sox have had a very difficult time producing productive major league pitchers the last 10 years, especially during the KW regime."

 

Huh?  Buerhe, Garland, Wells, Cotts, Foulke...the list goes on.

 

I wouldn't say the Sox have been "A+++ smiley face" about developing pitchers, but I wouldn't say they have had "a very difficult time" either.  Developing Buehrle and Garland into top flight pitchers, (albeit only this year for Garland) does a lot for me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In your list, we only drafted and developed Buehrle and Wells and Wells is hardly anything special. We got all the other guys on your list through trades.

[Rex Hudler]

In your list, we only drafted and developed Buehrle and Wells and Wells is hardly anything special.  We got all the other guys on your list through trades.

 

I'd include Garland and Cotts on the list despite the fact that the Sox didn't draft them. I would not include Foulke.

[phillychuck]

I'd like to thank all you guys for posting over at philliesphans. It's great to hear what intelligent fans of other teams think about trades. No trolls at all, my compliments to the quality of your posters.

 

I think the folks who call it a portential win-win where nether GM gave up anything he couldn't replace are right on the mark.

 

It will be very interesting for us to see if Rowand gets flipped for quality starting pitching, which we could use, or if Michaels or Victorino hits the road. Many of us would be happy rotating five outfielders (Abreu, Burrell, Rowand, Victorino, Michaels) if one of them could help take RH first-base ABs.

 

Thanks again, and keep stopping by!