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Jon Garland


GreatScott82

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QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 01:47 PM)
  I think Garland thinks he can repeat his 2005 season and get a crazy contract next offseason.

 

And why shouldn't he? He was a can't-miss prospect that finally put it together for a big season with a manager that emphasizes pitching and defense and has the utmost faith in his starters and we just upgraded our offense. So instead of 18 wins, he probably thinks and he should that he will get 20 wins...especially as the #4 starter going up against other teams' bottom of the rotation guys.

 

Its worth the gamble if you're Jon Garland. He was almost traded 2 or 3 times (I remember the Erstad and Johnson deals off the top of my head) so there is no loyalty factor. Some team will offer him ridiculous money and years next off-season to lock up a 26-year-old ace in the making but I don't think it will be the White Sox. In my opinion, he will always be at best a #2 or #3 pitcher so we best enjoy another solid season and then go after someone else in 2007 instead of getting in a bidding war for JG.

Edited by heirdog
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I'll wait to see if 12-win Jon returns or if he really did turn a corner.

If he really wants to see who'll pay the most, it's a fair gamble.

People are overpaying for pitching lately, so if Jon repeats anything near his '05 performance he can expect some pretty nice offers in free agency.

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Nice Jon.. way to ruin a good week.  :angry:

Hopefully they work something out.. I do think Jon would get about $7 million in arbitration.

I would love if Garland agreed to a 3 year, $21 million contract but if he repeats on his 2005 season, he could make that contract look like chump change via free agency.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 06:08 PM)
Nice Jon.. way to ruin a good week.  :angry:

Hopefully they work something out.. I do think Jon would get about $7 million in arbitration.

I wouldn't say he ruined a good week. He just feels he can make more money via the open market like Pauly did this year. There is still a chance he will return in '07. Besides we still don't know the #s involved with the initial offer? If its less than what he'll get in arbitration than I understand why he turned it down. He didn't ruin a good week. At least he'll be back in 2006!

Plus we might be hearing the signing of Mueller very soon. Stay tuned ;)

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i think jon will get 6.5 in arbitration. he wasnt such a huge piece to the puzzle that i wouldnt consider trading him at peak value before he gets paid. the risk of him reverting back to 12 win jon are there.

 

however, the motherf***er was awesome in the playoffs... so whatever happens with jon will make me happy.

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QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 10:10 AM)
I would love if Garland agreed to a 3 year, $21 million contract but if he repeats on his 2005 season, he could make that contract look like chump change via free agency.

I think that deal would have to be nearer to 24 million with a 4th year option at like 9 or 10 million a year. Start the 1st year at 7 or 7.5 and slowly escalate it up. Than he would have a buyout that would ensure that he would at the very least average 8 million a year for 3 years and if he stuck around he'd get a little more.

 

This isn't done, the Sox made an initial attempt and I'm guessing they will now turn to AJP and focus on the winter meetings coming up. Once those are over they will get back into business. I could even see them agreeing to a 1yr deal sometime quickly (to avoid arbitration) only to have told each other they would come back and look at a multi year deal later in the off-season.

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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 10:14 AM)
i think jon will get 6.5 in arbitration.  he wasnt such a huge piece to the puzzle that i wouldnt consider trading him at peak value before he gets paid.  the risk of him reverting back to 12 win jon are there.

So...you're saying that you think Jon will nearly double what he earned last year ($3.4 million) if they go to arbitration? I have trouble believing that.

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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 10:21 AM)
Just to add, I think to make the Kong deal even better, is the fact that Kenny can now go into the winter meetings and not have that on his mind at all, and focus his attention to other things.

Ya, thats the big thing and we will see another move by the end of the meetings.

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FA is dictated by how much other talent is out there. That includes the trade pool. I'm not going to call Kong a victim this year but there was talk he might be in line for a Maggs like deal. (70-75) mil. But the Florida firesale & the Manny trade talk both diminished interest & stretched out the time table.

 

So it became clear if Kong wanted the 70-75 deal he was going to have to wait until the Manny issue was resolved. His stomach had turned enough over the past month & he decided as long as the White Sox made a fair market offer he was going to stay. That offer was determined based on what was out there in rumors & what both the O's & Angels offered.

 

I do not think there are any guarantees at all for Jon G to get even as much as Ryan & Weaver if he should repeat his 2005 season. The talent pool for SP after 2006 will be huge. Especially when you figure what is expected to be added from the trade pool.

 

Even if Jon G were to win 20 games he is still doing it from 4th in the rotation. That will have an impact on what his agent can get him.

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I hope that Jon doesn't think he's going to make an absolute killing like Burnett in FA. I don't blame him for not signing now because his future salary is still up in the air, but he's still not exactly an elite pitcher. The pitching class after next season is much deeper, with numerous established starters available. The only way I see him making more than about $8 mil is if he wins close to 20 and makes a serious CY Young charge. Schmidt, Mulder, Zito, Pettitte, and possibly Contreras will all be in serious demand, and Jon will probably have to wait until those guys sign to really get a ton of interest since they all have a better resume than he does (other than Jose). On top of that, there are more guys with major league experience that have been viable pitchers in the past, like Wolf, Padilla, and Escobar. Also, there are more above average position players on the market, like Derek Lee, Aubrey Huff, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Loretta, Jeff Kent (he's old, but still decent), Melvin Mora, Carlos Lee, Barry Bonds (that should be interesting), Juan Pierre, Shannon Stewart, and Jose Guillen. The available money will be a lot more spread out than this season, meaning there should be fewer ridiculous contracts.

Edited by ZoomSlowik
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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 11:01 AM)
I hope you are kidding or drunk.  Compare that with this years crop...please

 

I would take at least 4 LHP in that list.

That list also says nothing about the Bats that the Yankees are going to be signing in the FA Market next year (2 guys named Lee, for starters)

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Well that list of f/a next year shows a lot of good lefties but not so much for righties..... if we lose Garland and KW doesnt want to spend so much Id love the addition of a guy like Adam Eaton. If im right he was having a really good season b4 he got hurt or something than started pitching like crap.

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