Jon Garland

[Soxfest]

If someone wants to overpay for JG trade him.

[ZoomSlowik]

Mike Hampton.

 

First off, that contract was signed when everyone was being absolutely stupid about signing players to long term contracts, especially pitchers. Darren Driefort hadn't even proved anything as a starter, and he got $11.5 mil over 6 years even though he had never pitched 200 innings or finished a year with an ERA under 4. Second, Hampton had two 15 win seasons and a 22 win season under his belt before he signed the deal, and his ERA had been under 4 for the previous 6 seasons, with 4 of those being under 3.50 and one of them at 2.90. People forget that he was a pretty good starter before he fell apart in Colorado.

[Rowand44]

Come on people, Jon Garland is not going to be more than a $10 mil pitcher, and he's really going to have to kick some ass to get that. You need to ignore this year's FA market because it's abnormally thin and there is a lot more money to throw around than most years. He's not going to have as much demand as several of the other starters because he's not a strikeout pitcher and he's been historically mediocre. Even considering the other players available that are like him, his resume and reputation is much weaker than that of guys like Pettitte, Zito, and Mulder. The general consensus around the league seems to be that this year was a fluke and he'll go back to his old self next year. The guy has one good season in his 6th year in the majors, his 4th as a full time starter, and suddenly he's the second coming? He wasn't even that dominant, and someone is supposed to pay him like he's Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana? I can't even come up with 10 teams that he would be the unquestioned ace on right now. This is just like the Konerko situation, with everyone panicking that he's going to be on another team on a ridiculous deal like 6/100. Let's drop our Sox bias for a second and objectively look at him. He's a young pitcher (although he'll be 27 when he's a FA, which isn't all that young) without elite stuff that has had one good but not great year in his major league career, maybe two years by the this time next year. And he's going to get $12 mil a year for 5 years or more? Please. Just relax and let things happen, don't panick about what you think might happen if some GM has a brain fart.

 

It's not just this years market it was last years as well. Milton, Wright, Pavano, Benson, Radke, Clement, and there are probably a few more I cant think of right now got around 7.5 million in last years market. JG would be atleast a 10 mill per year pitcher if he hits the open market next offseason.

[southsider2k5]

Come on people, Jon Garland is not going to be more than a $10 mil pitcher, and he's really going to have to kick some ass to get that. You need to ignore this year's FA market because it's abnormally thin and there is a lot more money to throw around than most years.

 

You want to explain last years starting pitching contracts to me then?

[Balta1701]

You want to explain last years starting pitching contracts to me then?

The Yankees needed starting pitching. There, it's explained.

[southsider2k5]

The Yankees needed starting pitching.  There, it's explained.

 

And they won't be next year?

[Rowand44]

And they won't be next year?

The yankees werent even the ones who set the market for mediocre pitchers, it was the Mets with Benson. With the way teams are overpaying for pitching as of late there is no doubt that Jon makes atleast 10 if he hits free agency.

[Harry Chappas]

The Yankees needed starting pitching.  There, it's explained.

 

And they will next year as well as this year. NY and Boston trade their youth and therefore overpay veterans. Look at Matt Clement and he was an NL pitcher. Jon Garland is a horse. Mike Hampton is what 5'10" if he is lucky. Bown got his huge contract at 36, Garland will be 27. Think about that for a second. The guy has never missed a start and will be 27 after next season. Guiys that are 30-32 are getting huge money. 12 win a year pitchers make huge money. Most guys improve when reach their prime which Garland hasn't. Especially if they are not injury prone.

 

carrie woods gets $10M a year at 30 and he has never won more than 13 games. Teams will overpay for the hope of good pitching.

 

s*** Lieber and Carpenter got nice contracts and they had to sit out a year.

[Balta1701]

And they won't be next year?

At some level yes...you can have starting pitching, but you can only have so much. The Yankees right now have Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright, Wang, and I think 1 more I'm forgetting who fill out their starting rotation. I don't know all of their contracts, but I doubt they'll have more than 1 opening (Mussina?) to fill after next year. You can sign 5, maybe even 6 starting pitchers if you're the Yankees, but at some level you just can't afford $10 million a year for a guy who'll be your 6th or 7th starting pitcher in case other guys get hurt. Even the Yankees can't just buy starting pitchers and pitch them 50 innings a year out of the bullpen.

[ZoomSlowik]

You want to explain last years starting pitching contracts to me then?

 

And how many of them got $10 mil a year long term contracts, like have been thrown around on this topic? To the best of my knowledge two: Carl Pavano, coming off a Cy Young-type season, and Pedro Martinez, arguably the best pitcher of the last 8 years or so. As I said, unless Garland has a season similar to what Pavano did right before FA, I expect him to get contracts similar to the Jarret Wright's, Russ Ortiz's, and Odalis Perez's of the world, only probably more years since he's younger. That's probably where he fits in: among the decent but not stellar starters (or in the case of Wright, mediocre guys with potential). In other words, probably 5 years for $7-$9 mil a year, depending on what kind of year he has and how desperate some of the fringe contenders are. I expect Schmidt, Pettitte, Mulder, and Zito to get the largest contracts of the group because they are bigger names and most people think they're better and more proven. Seriously, what has Jon done that makes him so much better than the likes of Ortiz, Clement, and Perez? The only possible argument is he won a ring, and since he only pitched two games in the playoffs you could argue he wasn't that important to the run. He's really done nothing to prove that he's among the elite starters, so until he does he'll probably be paid like those other guys.

Edited December 2, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[nitetrain8601]

And how many of them got $10 mil a year long term contracts, like have been thrown around on this topic? To the best of my knowledge two: Carl Pavano, coming off a Cy Young-type season, and Pedro Martinez, arguably the best pitcher of the last 8 years or so. As I said, unless Garland has a season similar to what Pavano did right before FA, I expect him to get contracts similar to the Jarret Wright's, Russ Ortiz's, and Odalis Perez's of the world, only probably more years since he's younger. That's probably where he fits in: among the decent but not stellar starters (or in the case of Wright, mediocre guys with potential). In other words, probably 5 years for $7-$9 mil a year, depending on what kind of year he has and how desperate some of the fringe contenders are. I expect Schmidt, Pettitte, Mulder, and Zito to get the largest contracts of the group because they are bigger names and most people think they're better and more proven. Seriously, what has Jon done that makes him so much better than the likes of Ortiz, Clement, and Perez? The only possible argument is he won a ring, and since he only pitched two games in the playoffs you could argue he wasn't that important to the run. He's really done nothing to prove that he's among the elite starters, so until he does he'll probably be paid like those other guys.

 

Pitching is going at a premium. If Garland has a year like last year, I guarentee he gets 10 million a year. I'll eat my shoe on webcam and livecast it to you if he doesn't. Look at all the overpaid 12 game winners. Add 6 more wins to that for a 27 year old and he's going to get something along the lines of 4 years 44 million. Hell, look at closing this year. Guys are getting paid much more than Mussina. Look at Farnsworth and Eyre and there was much better relief pitching out there. The trend started with the Mets last year and it will continue.

 

The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Cubs will be teams that will always need something and they'll always be the ones willing to overpay, thus setting the market value. The Yankees probably won't have Mussina, and I doubt they go with Small after this year. They are talking about moving Chacon to setup duty. They'll need 2 pitchers after this upcoming year and they also wanted to get younger. Garland would be the perfect fit for them. The Red Sox probably won't have Schilling and Wells past this upcoming season. Cardinals might lose Matt Morris and they're a team that likes to keep plugging in guys and will spend smartly. Cubs might go after Garland if Wood has another injury plagued season. The Indians might also need Garland to fill out their rotation after next year.

 

You also have to take into account teams that come close and want to make pushes that they'll think will take over the top and teams who want to increase fanbase by spending. The trend shows a larger amount of big contracts being handed out.

[ZoomSlowik]

You're still missing the point. Many of these "mediocre starters" have been better pitchers over the last few years than Jon has. The guy has a 4.42 career ERA and was 5 games under .500 before this year. That can't be blamed on brutal pens or anemic offenses either like it can for some of these other guys. Jon was simply brutal before this season, plain and simple. Plus he doesn't have the electric stuff that many of the guys of his status that have been getting these contracts do, meaning it's harder to convince people that he's going to improve dramatically.

 

Another major reason that these mediocre pitchers are getting these deals is teams that are trying to improve their pitching and there simply wasn't any quality pitching on the market. This makes what little crap is out there more valuable than it really is. Do you really think that the Yankees would have given Pavano 4/40 if any one of Jason Schmidt, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito, or Mark Mulder were on the market? What do you think the effect will be when all of them are in the same FA class? There's going to be fewer massive contracts available to mid-level pitchers because the teams that have money to spend will go after these more proven guys. Plus by the same logic you're using to claim that Jon is a $10 mil pitcher, what does that mean guys with Cy Young awards are worth? $15 mil? $20 mil? There's only so much a team is going to pay for a starter. Maybe the supremely talented starters like Pedro and Bartolo Colon (forgot about him before, 3 starters over $10 mil. BFD.) can get significantly more than $10 mil. But that's about the ceiling for someone like Jon unless he has a season that is good enough to vault him into the category of the pitchers I previously mentioned. How good do you think your fan base is going to feel if they end up paying 5/60 for Jon Garland, a guy most of them have probably never heard of? That's why teams are going to get the best guy available first. There may be some big contracts handed out to starting pitchers, but Schmidt, Pettitte, Zito, and Mulder are almost certainly going to get them long before Jon does, making it less likely that someone with a ton of cash to throw around that is pitching desperate is going to splurge on him, unless he has a big time season.

 

The money that the relievers are making is fairly irrelevant because it's an entirely different market. That's kind of like arguing that Jon is worth $12 mil because Paul Konerko got it. They fill entirely different roles on the team, and thus the amount of money people want to pay those players is very different. There just happened to be two very good left-handed closers available, something that is usually in short supply. A soon as one of them starts a game, I'll worry about how it affects Jon's value. As for their other relievers, overpaying for decent options is nothing new. The Yankees have drastically overpaid for guys like Steve Karsay and Flash Gordon (although that doesn't look that bad now) in the past, and guys like Armando Benitez and Troy Percival were getting some pretty big contracts too.

[nitetrain8601]

You're still missing the point. Many of these "mediocre starters" have been better pitchers over the last few years than Jon has. The guy has a 4.42 career ERA and was 5 games under .500 before this year. That can't be blamed on brutal pens or anemic offenses either like it can for some of these other guys. Jon was simply brutal before this season, plain and simple. Plus he doesn't have the electric stuff that many of the guys of his status that have been getting these contracts do, meaning it's harder to convince people that he's going to improve dramatically.

 

Another major reason that these mediocre pitchers are getting these deals is teams that are trying to improve their pitching and there simply wasn't any quality pitching on the market. This makes what little crap is out there more valuable than it really is. Do you really think that the Yankees would have given Pavano 4/40 if any one of Jason Schmidt, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito, or Mark Mulder were on the market? What do you think the effect will be when all of them are in the same FA class? There's going to be fewer massive contracts available to mid-level pitchers because the teams that have money to spend will go after these more proven guys. Plus by the same logic you're using to claim that Jon is a $10 mil pitcher, what does that mean guys with Cy Young awards are worth? $15 mil? $20 mil? There's only so much a team is going to pay for a starter. Maybe the supremely talented starters like Pedro and Bartolo Colon (forgot about him before, 3 starters over $10 mil. BFD.) can get significantly more than $10 mil. But that's about the ceiling for someone like Jon unless he has a season that is good enough to vault him into the category of the pitchers I previously mentioned. How good do you think your fan base is going to feel if they end up paying 5/60 for Jon Garland, a guy most of them have probably never heard of? That's why teams are going to get the best guy available first. There may be some big contracts handed out to starting pitchers, but Schmidt, Pettitte, Zito, and Mulder are almost certainly going to get them long before Jon does, making it less likely that someone with a ton of cash to throw around that is pitching desperate is going to splurge on him, unless he has a big time season.

 

The money that the relievers are making is fairly irrelevant because it's an entirely different market. That's kind of like arguing that Jon is worth $12 mil because Paul Konerko got it. They fill entirely different roles on the team, and thus the amount of money people want to pay those players is very different. There just happened to be two very good left-handed closers available, something that is usually in short supply. A soon as one of them starts a game, I'll worry about how it affects Jon's value. As for their other relievers, overpaying for decent options is nothing new. The Yankees have drastically overpaid for guys like Steve Karsay and Flash Gordon (although that doesn't look that bad now) in the past, and guys like Armando Benitez and Troy Percival were getting some pretty big contracts too.

 

Jon Garland was not brutal prior to this year. He was frustrating because he wasn't close to tapping his potential prior to this year, but he was an average pitcher at the very least. As someone stated earlier, he's also been a workhorse and good for 12 wins his whole career. Most of those starters have been as good as Jon if you discount Jon's last year. If you count that, he's better than them. And you're right. Starting Pitching is at a different market and if you think about it, it's more of a premium than hitting or relief pitching.

[sayitaintso]

And they will next year as well as this year.  NY and Boston trade their youth and therefore overpay veterans.  Look at Matt Clement and he was an NL pitcher.  Jon Garland is a horse.  Mike Hampton is what 5'10" if he is lucky.  Bown got his huge contract at 36, Garland will be 27.  Think about that for a second.  The guy has never missed a start and will be 27 after next season.  Guiys that are 30-32 are getting huge money.  12 win a year pitchers make huge money.  Most guys improve when reach their prime which Garland hasn't.  Especially if they are not injury prone.

 

carrie woods gets $10M a year at 30 and he has never won more than 13 games.  Teams will overpay for the hope of good pitching.

 

s*** Lieber and Carpenter got nice contracts and they had to sit out a year.

Wood has never won more than 14 games.

[ZoomSlowik]

Jon Garland was not brutal prior to this year. He was frustrating because he wasn't close to tapping his potential prior to this year, but he was an average pitcher at the very least. As someone stated earlier, he's also been a workhorse and good for 12 wins his whole career. Most of those starters have been as good as Jon if you discount Jon's last year. If you count that, he's better than them. And you're right. Starting Pitching is at a different market and if you think about it, it's more of a premium than hitting or relief pitching.

 

Apparently you and I have a different opinion of brutal. I would think that a guy that we are talking about getting $10 mil a year in FA should have more than one year in which he was anywhere close to having an ERA under 4. Even with last year's 3.50 ERA his career total is over 4.40. That's a #4 starter at best, not a guy who should be talked about as an ace. He's going to have to prove that last year wasn't a fluke to have any chance at serious money.

 

It's not like the guys making money were all absolute smucks either. Pretty much all of them had one year comparable to Jon's last year (especially if you throw out wins, since that is highly dependent on other factors), which is why he needs to seperate himself from the pack more. All of the guys that have gotten sizeable deals in the past couple of years have shown at least some signs of competency, like Jon last year. The difference is going to be whether he has another 18 win 3.50 ERA year or if he puts up something like 14 wins with a 4.10 ERA. That's going to be what determines whether or not he makes more than $10 mil, not his age, what guys have gotten the last couple of years, or how badly the Yankees or Red Sox need pitching.

 

You missed my point on the "likely to improve" part, I worded it poorly. Guys like Clement and Burnett have elite stuff, meaning teams signing them obviously have hopes that he's eventually going to be an absolute shutdown ace. Teams aren't going to have that with Jon since he is not a strikeout pitcher that inspires awe in others. That will hurt his cause.

 

The point is that the reliever's market is irrelevant because there's an entirely different pool of players available. It has nothing to do with the relative worth of the positions. It's obviously irrelevant to this year's starting pitching market too, since none of them have signed to ridiculous deals early like the relievers. Outside Burnett, these guys are going to have to wait and see what happens in terms of what they will make. The other point is that Jon isn't competing with the same amazingly bad pitchers that have gotten good contracts the last few years, he's competing with real and competent pitchers this time. Guys that have actually won 15 games more than once, guys that have actually pitched in the playoffs. Just because Matt Clement got like $9 mil a year doesn't mean that Garland is necessarily going to get $11 or $12 mil. He has to perform this year big time in order to earn that kind of money. Because of that, it's pretty meaningless to argue about what we all think he's going to get.

 

I'd pay close attention to Kevin Millwood this year, as he'll be a half-decent guage of what Garland would get. He had a solid year, arguably better than Garland since he lead the AL in ERA, and he's had a better history of performance. He's also another pitcher that has less than elite stuff. If he ends up over $10 mil, than Garland might have a chance too even if he has a subpar year. If Millwood gets under $10 mil, Garland has very little chance because of the increased quality of the starting pitching market next season. Regardless of what happens with that, Jon is not going to get more than $12 mil a year no matter what he does, and he can't be merely passable if he really wants to get payed.

Edited December 2, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[Harry Chappas]

Clement's stuff is far from elite.

 

Milwood is old and has had injury issues. He went from a guy that could hit 94 to being more crafty.

[timotime]

Pass.  Mulder has fallen off big time the last 2-3 years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

yes

[LDF]

yes

if jon starts off like he did this yr, the sox will not move him and prob let him walk esp if we make the playoff again.

 

however i think the sox will trade him quick after the season starts if he has a so-so beginning.

[hammerhead johnson]

Thats good news. My main concerns are Jon G and Jose C! We have to lock those guys up. They are Aces in the making. No doubt about it.

 

Jose Contreras is an ace in the making? Ain't he like 45 years old?

[White Sox Josh]

Jose Contreras is an ace in the making?  Ain't he like 45 years old? 

wasn't he the best pitcher in baseball in the 2nd half?

Also he is more like 37 or 38. That is a myth. If he was 45 he would be in Miami at his home. Not throwing a 96 MPH fastball.

[YASNY]

You're still missing the point. Many of these "mediocre starters" have been better pitchers over the last few years than Jon has. The guy has a 4.42 career ERA and was 5 games under .500 before this year. That can't be blamed on brutal pens or anemic offenses either like it can for some of these other guys. Jon was simply brutal before this season, plain and simple. Plus he doesn't have the electric stuff that many of the guys of his status that have been getting these contracts do, meaning it's harder to convince people that he's going to improve dramatically.

 

Another major reason that these mediocre pitchers are getting these deals is teams that are trying to improve their pitching and there simply wasn't any quality pitching on the market. This makes what little crap is out there more valuable than it really is. Do you really think that the Yankees would have given Pavano 4/40 if any one of Jason Schmidt, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito, or Mark Mulder were on the market? What do you think the effect will be when all of them are in the same FA class? There's going to be fewer massive contracts available to mid-level pitchers because the teams that have money to spend will go after these more proven guys. Plus by the same logic you're using to claim that Jon is a $10 mil pitcher, what does that mean guys with Cy Young awards are worth? $15 mil? $20 mil? There's only so much a team is going to pay for a starter. Maybe the supremely talented starters like Pedro and Bartolo Colon (forgot about him before, 3 starters over $10 mil. BFD.) can get significantly more than $10 mil. But that's about the ceiling for someone like Jon unless he has a season that is good enough to vault him into the category of the pitchers I previously mentioned. How good do you think your fan base is going to feel if they end up paying 5/60 for Jon Garland, a guy most of them have probably never heard of? That's why teams are going to get the best guy available first. There may be some big contracts handed out to starting pitchers, but Schmidt, Pettitte, Zito, and Mulder are almost certainly going to get them long before Jon does, making it less likely that someone with a ton of cash to throw around that is pitching desperate is going to splurge on him, unless he has a big time season.

 

The money that the relievers are making is fairly irrelevant because it's an entirely different market. That's kind of like arguing that Jon is worth $12 mil because Paul Konerko got it. They fill entirely different roles on the team, and thus the amount of money people want to pay those players is very different. There just happened to be two very good left-handed closers available, something that is usually in short supply. A soon as one of them starts a game, I'll worry about how it affects Jon's value. As for their other relievers, overpaying for decent options is nothing new. The Yankees have drastically overpaid for guys like Steve Karsay and Flash Gordon (although that doesn't look that bad now) in the past, and guys like Armando Benitez and Troy Percival were getting some pretty big contracts too.

 

You base a large protion of your argument that prior to '05 Garland would only win 12 games per year and was 5 games under .500. Then, in a previous post you say, "(especially if you throw out wins, since that is highly dependent on other factors)" thereby discounting wins as a relevent stat. Also, more of those in disagreement have said that Jon would have to have a similar year in '06 to what happened in '05 if he was going to be a $10M per pitcher. You argue your point by saying, "The difference is going to be whether he has another 18 win 3.50 ERA year or if he puts up something like 14 wins with a 4.10 ERA. That's going to be what determines whether or not he makes more than $10 mil, not his age, what guys have gotten the last couple of years, or how badly the Yankees or Red Sox need pitching."

[hammerhead johnson]

wasn't he the best pitcher in baseball in the 2nd half?  

Also he is more like 37 or 38.  That is a myth.  If he was 45 he would be in Miami at his home.  Not throwing a 96 MPH fastball.

 

Yeah, I was kidding. :rolly

 

Will you stop spamming these f***ing threads, please?

[White Sox Josh]

Yeah, I was kidding.  :rolly

 

Will you stop spamming these f***ing threads, please?

El Duque is 40 years old though. Read it in his biography.

[qwerty]

El Duque is 40 years old though.  Read it in his biography.

 

...

 

What does he have to do with anything? You bring s*** up out of the blue.

[greg775]

It looks like this will be Jon G's final season with the Champs.

 

I call you on this. This does not mean it will be his final season with the champs. Too much can h appen either way with him.

he could win 17-20 again; he could suck.

I hope he's a Sox a long time.