ESPNews Reports

[Balta1701]

Also, Trevor Hoffman may be going to the Tribe:

Damn, right after we trade Rowand...

[Whitewashed in '05]

Damn, right after we trade Rowand...

ugh, im still hurting about that. I don't think I will learn to deal with it until I see Thome hit a few bombs.

[Chisoxfn]

The Reds should trade for and extend Marquis. They could use a GB pitcher in that park

That makes way too much sense for the Reds.

[Chisoxfn]

Please Tribe, give 38 year old Trevor Hoffman a 3 year deal.

Thats a lot of years to give him, but Hoffman is still one of the best closers in the biz. I don't know if his hip (I think he has a bad hip, but I may be confusing him with Percy who I know has a bad hip) but he could definately wear down (plus he'll be 41 for cripe sake).

 

That said I think he's an upgrade over Bob Wickman.

[Balta1701]

Thats a lot of years to give him, but Hoffman is still one of the best closers in the biz.  I don't know if his hip (I think he has a bad hip, but I may be confusing him with Percy who I know has a bad hip) but he could definately wear down (plus he'll be 41 for cripe sake).

 

That said I think he's an upgrade over Bob Wickman.

Just based on last year, I have trouble saying either one is better.

Hoffman:

43 saves, ERA = 2.97, WHIP = 1.11, BAA = .235 (in the NL)

Wickman:

45 Saves, ERA = 2.47, WHIP = 1.26, BAA = 2.47 (AL)

 

Hoffman had better numbers other than ERA, but that was also in the NL. Wickman did give up 9 home runs to Hoffman's 3 (How many of those were Dye and Konerko?)

[Chisoxfn]

Just based on last year, I have trouble saying either one is better.

Hoffman:

43 saves, ERA = 2.97, WHIP = 1.11, BAA = .235 (in the NL)

Wickman:

45 Saves, ERA = 2.47, WHIP = 1.26, BAA = 2.47 (AL)

 

Hoffman had better numbers other than ERA, but that was also in the NL.  Wickman did give up 9 home runs to Hoffman's 3 (How many of those were Dye and Konerko?)

My theory was simply because I think career wise Hoffman has always been great, Wickman has been good and really seemed to revamp his career last year.

 

Now financially I'm not saying its a good move, but next year they should stay lateral. Honestly I think I like Hoffman's chances of holding up and repeating last years numbers more than Wickmans chances.

 

Wickman hasn't exactly been a model of health either. In 2004 he had an ERA over 4 (in just 30 games) and he missed all of 03 (well pretty much, he was just in the minors). Hoffman on the other hand since 1996, Hoffman has had just 1 season with under 60 appearances and his highest ERA was 3.43 during that same span. He is a yr older though, but I'd say Hoffman has the greater shot of holding up next year and in years beyond.

 

I think 2 years would have been wiser. But money isn't going to effect them next year and I think its a good move for next year (hell if he pitches good next year they could always move him and the remaining two years to some other team).

[Milkman delivers]

He had a 3 ERA in the worst division in baseball, in a gigantic pitcher's park, and now he's moving to the AL. I expect his ERA to be roughly 4.

[Chisoxfn]

He had a 3 ERA in the worst division in baseball, in a gigantic pitcher's park, and now he's moving to the AL.  I expect his ERA to be roughly 4.

Man a lot of you people seem to really think the Al is that much tougher than the NL. It doens't have much of an effect at all on really good pitchers. I could see park factor, but its the fact that this guy is the 2nd best closer of all time (behind Mariano) that I have no reason to think he can't pitch sucessfully (as long as the stuff is there).

 

I laugh at everyone that thinks someone like Dontrell would see his ERA jump a point if he were to leave Florida or that Carpenter or Clemens wouldn't have kicked butt in the AL. Sure there are different factors and in general the AL is a tougher league to pitch in because of the DH, but at the same time, its going to effect mediocre to poor pitchers a lot more than front line guys.

[Milkman delivers]

It's not just the park. It's the fact that he was in the weakest division in baseball (one of the weakest I can remember), and his numbers weren't that great. The AL Central is just a little better than the NL West, I'd have to say. He's getting older, too.

 

And I think Clemens' success had a lot to do with the NL, too. He'd still be good in the AL, but he didn't magically get better when he left the AL.

[Chisoxfn]

It's not just the park.  It's the fact that he was in the weakest division in baseball (one of the weakest I can remember), and his numbers weren't that great.  The AL Central is just a little better than the NL West, I'd have to say.  He's getting older, too.

 

And I think Clemens' success had a lot to do with the NL, too.  He'd still be good in the AL, but he didn't magically get better when he left the AL.

Oh ya, cause Clemens wasn't pitching in a total hitters park? What Clemens did was downright amazing last year. The guy pitched his ass off, there is nothing you can do but tip your cap.

 

Why not give the man the credit he's deserved. I laugh at how you guys think guys like Clemens would have been mediocre if he were in the AL last year. Let me guess, so would Chris Carpenter. Hell, I didn't see Curt Schilling's ERA skyrocket when he went from the NL to AL (from the Dbacks to the RedSox) and not only did he go to the AL, but he went to pitch in Boston (a hitters park).

[Balta1701]

Oh ya, cause Clemens wasn't pitching in a total hitters park?  What Clemens did was downright amazing last year.  The guy pitched his ass off, there is nothing you can do but tip your cap. 

 

Why not give the man the credit he's deserved.  I laugh at how you guys think guys like Clemens would have been mediocre if he were in the AL last year.  Let me guess, so would Chris Carpenter.  Hell, I didn't see Curt Schilling's ERA skyrocket when he went from the NL to AL (from the Dbacks to the RedSox) and not only did he go to the AL, but he went to pitch in Boston (a hitters park).

There is at least some fairly good evidence that on average, ERA's of starting pitchers go up by almost a run per game going from the NL to the AL.

 

Getting out of the AL was worth almost a full run in ERA (0.95). As expected, the pitchers struck out more batters but also walked more, perhaps owing to the additional intentional walks created by the pitcher's spot.

 

But if getting out of the AL significantly improves a pitcher's ERA, then shouldn't the reverse move -- jumping into the DH-loaded AL -- inflate the numbers? Seven pitchers who made at least 20 starts in the NL in 2003 tried their luck in the AL in 2004: Miguel Batista, Kevin Brown, Matt Kinney, Damian Moss, Jeriome Robertson, Curt Schilling and Javier Vazquez. (Two more Yankees in this group.) How did they do? In all seven cases, their ERA went up. Take a look at the cumulative numbers:

 

Oddly, or perhaps not, getting out of the NL added nearly a full run to their ERA (0.93), or almost exactly as much as the eight AL-to-NL jumpers saved in switching leagues. Again, they walked batters and struck out batters at slightly higher rates in the NL.

Naturally there's variance from pitcher to pitcher, but I think the data in 2004 is fairly clear.

[Rowand44]

Man a lot of you people seem to really think the Al is that much tougher than the NL.

It really depends on the guy, I think for a lot of guys it's a huge factor but for some there is no effect at all. There are some guys who just cant pitch in the al but our studs in the nl, Jeff Suppan comes to mind. That being said, it's not that big of a deal for relief pitchers imo.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Oh ya, cause Clemens wasn't pitching in a total hitters park?  What Clemens did was downright amazing last year.  The guy pitched his ass off, there is nothing you can do but tip your cap. 

 

Why not give the man the credit he's deserved.  I laugh at how you guys think guys like Clemens would have been mediocre if he were in the AL last year.  Let me guess, so would Chris Carpenter.  Hell, I didn't see Curt Schilling's ERA skyrocket when he went from the NL to AL (from the Dbacks to the RedSox) and not only did he go to the AL, but he went to pitch in Boston (a hitters park).

 

Clemens era from 1999-2003 was 4.60, 3,70, 3.51, 4.35 and 3.91. So, yes, Clemens did benefit from being in the NL. That doesn't mean he's not great. Hell, he's the best of this era, IMO. But it's silly to think he could maintain a 1.87 era or whatever it was in the AL.

Edited December 6, 2005 by Jordan4life_2005

[Milkman delivers]

Oh ya, cause Clemens wasn't pitching in a total hitters park?  What Clemens did was downright amazing last year.  The guy pitched his ass off, there is nothing you can do but tip your cap. 

 

Why not give the man the credit he's deserved.  I laugh at how you guys think guys like Clemens would have been mediocre if he were in the AL last year.  Let me guess, so would Chris Carpenter.  Hell, I didn't see Curt Schilling's ERA skyrocket when he went from the NL to AL (from the Dbacks to the RedSox) and not only did he go to the AL, but he went to pitch in Boston (a hitters park).

 

I said he'd still be good. I laugh at how you didn't notice that.

 

Clemens era from 1999-2003 was 4.60,  3,70,  3.51,  4.35 and 3.91.  So,  yes,  Clemens did benefit from being in the NL.  That doesn't mean he's not great.  Hell,  he's the best of this era,  IMO.  But it's silly to think he could maintain a 1.87 era or whatever it was in the AL.

 

Pfft, stats.

[SSH2005]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5141368

DALLAS - Barring a late reversal, free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett is expected to sign a five-year, $55 million contract with the Blue Jays on Tuesday, FOXSports.com has learned.

[Gene Honda Civic]

There is at least some fairly good evidence that on average, ERA's of starting pitchers go up by almost a run per game going from the NL to the AL.

 

Naturally there's variance from pitcher to pitcher, but I think the data in 2004 is fairly clear.

Verducci gives nothing more than anecdotal evidence from one year. Oh yeah, it's clear. Oh wait, it's ONE YEAR! and only pitchers who changed leagues. Talk about a limitted set.

 

What did guys whose last name starts with P bat in the first road game of a series in 2004, compared to their season average. would you draw conclusions from that?

 

Give me some real data... All pitchers who changed leagues, corrected for park and year, since the advent of the DH. I'd wager that the difference is about .3 in ERA when swithing leagues, significantly lower than the .95 that Verducci cites.

[Chisoxfn]

Verducci gives nothing more than anecdotal evidence from one year. Oh yeah, it's clear. Oh wait, it's ONE YEAR! and only pitchers who changed leagues. Talk about a limitted set.

 

What did guys whose last name starts with P bat in the first road game of a series in 2004, compared to their season average. would you draw conclusions from that?

 

Give me some real data... All pitchers who changed leagues, corrected for park and year, since the advent of the DH. I'd wager that the difference is about .3 in ERA when swithing leagues, significantly lower than the .95 that Verducci cites.

Ya, a full run is ridiculous. Plus when it comes to relievers, they aren't going to suffer from the lack of a pitcher because how often does a closer face the opposing teams pitcher (they don't). Now they won't be facing a DH, but they will likely be facing the opposing teams best pinch hitter (if the pitchers spot is up or another weak spot in the lineup). I'd reckon to say there isn't much any of a difference in terms of a closer between the AL and NL.

 

Thanks cheat for pointing this out. I'm sorry, I just laugh at people who throw out really weird stats from time to time. No one is going to convince me its a full run of a difference.

 

I will agree with about .3, that seems very reasonable. However, I think there is some variance. When it comes to a really mediocre pitcher, I think they will see a bit more of a jump when they switch leagues and when it comes to an ace like pitcher, I think they will have a minimal jump in ERA.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

Ya, a full run is ridiculous.  Plus when it comes to relievers, they aren't going to suffer from the lack of a pitcher because how often does a closer face the opposing teams pitcher (they don't). Now they won't be facing a DH, but they will likely be facing the opposing teams best pinch hitter (if the pitchers spot is up or another weak spot in the lineup).  I'd reckon to say there isn't much any of a difference in terms of a closer between the AL and NL. 

 

Thanks cheat for pointing this out.  I'm sorry, I just laugh at people who throw out really weird stats from time to time.  No one is going to convince me its a full run of a difference.

 

I will agree with about .3, that seems very reasonable.  However, I think there is some variance.  When it comes to a really mediocre pitcher, I think they will see a bit more of a jump when they switch leagues and when it comes to an ace like pitcher, I think they will have a minimal jump in ERA.

 

Yeah .3 would seem about right to me anyways. Closer era's aren't the most important thing in the world either. You would rather a guy get tagged 3 times blowing saves while giving up 4 or more runs than 2 runs 6 times blwoing saves. Also, with inherited runners and the small sample size-it doesn't necessarily tell you as much as it might with a starter. Hoffman is really good and he will be just fine in Cleveland. It is puzzling though that nobody has given Howry a look at closer given that he did actually do the job before. Will he be the Cubs closer by July 1st? Pretty possible

[GoodAsGould]

Does being in the NL or AL really have that much of an effect on a closer? Its not like they are going to face a pitcher if the game is on the line so really its almost the same. Yes Hoffman played in a pitchers park but saying his era is going to go from 2.97 to 4 is a bit of an exageration....