Any one concerned about the pitching

[gosox41]

It's good to see the Sox address their offense, but they shouldn't ignore the pitching. Here are the biggest concerns I have in that area:

 

1. Health of the starters. El Duque will spend time on the DL next year at some point, I can almost guarantee it. That means McCarthy moves in the rotation. Fine. But what happens if one of the other guys goes down? Garcia had a tired arm last year and is pitching in that baseball thing in March. Buehrle has been healthy but has pitched a ton of innings. Jose needs to build off his strong second half and not have any set backs. Garland seems like them most likely guy to stay healthy.

 

The Sox were lucky with injuries to their pitching staff last year. Hopefully it continues, but who wants to find out when it's too late (ie during the season) that the Sox need a pitcher and are SOL?

 

One solution would be to have Cotts work on extending himself more and more. Something tells me the Sox will need more then 6 starters in 2006. I hope I'm wrong.

 

2. There's only one lefty in the pen. I assume this will be addressed by spring training.

 

3. Hermanson. If he's healthy it's huge. If not, then it's a big concern as he was a very good reliever.

 

4. Jenks-I think he needs to learn a third pitch. the fastball is great, but the league may adjust. His curveball is awesome, when he has control. It can't hurt to add to the arsenal. I've heard others say that Jenks fastball doesn't lack movement. He either needs to get more control of his curve or find a third pitch to continue his success.

 

 

 

 

Bob

[Jake]

It's good to see the Sox address their offense, but they shouldn't ignore the pitching.  Here are the biggest concerns I have in that area:

 

1.  Health of the starters.  El Duque will spend time on the DL next year at some point, I can almost guarantee it.  That means McCarthy moves in the rotation.  Fine.  But what happens if one of the other guys goes down?  Garcia had a tired arm last year and is pitching in that baseball thing in March.  Buehrle has been healthy but has pitched a ton of innings.  Jose needs to build off his strong second half and not have any set backs.  Garland seems like them most likely guy to stay healthy.

 

The Sox were lucky with injuries to their pitching staff last year.  Hopefully it continues, but who wants to find out when it's too late (ie during the season) that the Sox need a pitcher and are SOL?

 

One solution would be to have Cotts work on extending himself more and more.  Something tells me the Sox will need more then 6 starters in 2006.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

2.  There's only one lefty in the pen.  I assume this will be addressed by spring training.

 

3.  Hermanson.  If he's healthy it's huge.  If not, then it's a big concern as he was a very good reliever.

 

4.  Jenks-I think he needs to learn a third pitch.  the fastball is great, but the league may adjust. His curveball is awesome, when he has control.  It can't hurt to add to  the arsenal.  I've heard others say that Jenks fastball doesn't lack movement.  He either needs to get more control of his curve or find a third pitch to continue his success.

Bob

 

 

Jenks has a slider that I've seen, and I've heard he has a semblance of a change up.

[Balta1701]

Responses.

 

1. Yes, El Duque will spend time on the DL next year. However, including him...we have a grand total of 6 starters. If Mark Buehrle or Jon Garland or Jose Contreras go down with an injury, we will suffer, but that will be because the guys going down are so damn good. You can't exactly expect to keep Johan Santana out in the bullpen in case someone gets hurt. By having a backup starter like El Duque, who will get some use but hopefully not a lot, we're in better shape than most teams.

 

Plus, our starting rotation, with the exception of the Cubans, is extremely young, which unlike that of a team like NY, tends to help our guys stay healthy.

 

2. Yes, we have only 1 lefty in the bullpen. But Lefties hit .100 of Bobby Jenks last year. Lefties hit less than .200 against Clifford last year. And if Viz ever finds his slider, he'll be able to get lefites out again (that was his strength in Milwaukee). Plus, there is no guarantee this won't change - KW has hinted he has someone in mind.

 

3. Last year, our bullpen started with Shingo Takatsu as the closer. This year, we're starting with Bobby Jenks as the closer. We have vastly upgraded at that position. Last year, Politte was coming off a bad year. This year he's coming off a great year.

 

Other than Bobby, in the bullpen we have:

Clifford

Viz

Probably El Duque

Hermanson

 

All of whom come from the right hand side. And, we have Baj as a potential backup in the minors. If Hermanson isn't healthy, yes it hurts us. But it's not necessarily murder. Especially if Clifford and Cotts both repeat their performances from last year.

 

4. Jenks has 4 pitches. He used to be a starter. Fastball, curve, slider, change. When he's coming in at the end of a game for 1-2 innings though, he really doens't need those extra pitches that often, because people aren't seeing him long enough to adapt to the speed change between the fastball and the hammer. Plus, given that Bobby's had arm problems in the past, it may not be a bad idea for him to avoid the slider and try to keep himself in good enough shape to throw the gas.

[RME JICO]

It's good to see the Sox address their offense, but they shouldn't ignore the pitching.  Here are the biggest concerns I have in that area:

 

1.  Health of the starters.  El Duque will spend time on the DL next year at some point, I can almost guarantee it.  That means McCarthy moves in the rotation.  Fine.  But what happens if one of the other guys goes down?  Garcia had a tired arm last year and is pitching in that baseball thing in March.  Buehrle has been healthy but has pitched a ton of innings.  Jose needs to build off his strong second half and not have any set backs.  Garland seems like them most likely guy to stay healthy.

 

The Sox were lucky with injuries to their pitching staff last year.  Hopefully it continues, but who wants to find out when it's too late (ie during the season) that the Sox need a pitcher and are SOL?

 

One solution would be to have Cotts work on extending himself more and more.  Something tells me the Sox will need more then 6 starters in 2006.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

2.  There's only one lefty in the pen.  I assume this will be addressed by spring training.

 

3.  Hermanson.  If he's healthy it's huge.  If not, then it's a big concern as he was a very good reliever.

 

4.  Jenks-I think he needs to learn a third pitch.  the fastball is great, but the league may adjust. His curveball is awesome, when he has control.  It can't hurt to add to  the arsenal.  I've heard others say that Jenks fastball doesn't lack movement.  He either needs to get more control of his curve or find a third pitch to continue his success.

Bob

 

I understand your concern, but the Sox pitching is a strength and it only needs minor tweaking (see Marte). I cannot even think of a team that will start with 6 quality starters on their roster like the Sox, and I see this as a positive. El Duque won't be on the DL if he is not the 5th starter and he is only coming in for long relief or an occasional spot start.

 

I wouldn't be too concerned about innings, there were a ton of pitchers with 200+ innings.

 

The only 2 remaining issues would be a 2nd Lefty (hopefully addressed before ST) and Hermanson's health, but a good couple of months off should do everyone good.

 

They also said that the World Baseball thing will have a pitch count limit so this will be very similar to what they would be doing anyway, just in a game environment.

Edited December 10, 2005 by WinninUgly

[kevin57]

Granted, pitching is always a concern in that only the superstars can be counted on to be consistently good year after year after year. I mean, one could fret that:

 

1) MB will be worn out after being a work horse all these years;

 

2) FG will sweat himself into exhaustion (plus playing for Venezuela);

 

3) Contreras will look like his first half self all next year;

 

4) Garland will return to being Garland;

 

5) Plus, all the other "frets" re: the bullpen.

 

HOWEVER, there isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't trade their entire pitching staff for ours. We are stronger, nay, far stronger than nearly every staff in MLB. I'm pretty comfortable with where we're at, barring some injury.

[chitownsportsfan]

These are legitmate worries. On the first part, yea, a starter could go down, probably will go down at some point in the year. The good news is that MB, JG, FG and Contreras have never shown any shoulder or other arm trouble in their careers. The innings are always a concern, but these guys aren't coming off major surgery or even seasons in which they had to sit because of soreness or dead-arm. El Duque is the only injury concern, but his injuries seem to be the "take a month off" type--other than that he seems to have a rubber arm.

 

 

Everything I've heard has suggested that Hermie's rehab is going better than can be expected. My main worry with him is some regression back to his career numbers.

 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised is the entire pitching staff sees some regression to the mean. If MB has as good a ERA as he did last year I'd be surprised, very surprised actually. Contreras has nasty stuff, always has, but his deal we mental, and that seems to be straightened out, so I actually think he'll pitch better throughout the whole season than last year. I think Garland ERA will be around 3.90 and I think FG's will be around 3.90 as well. Not terrible numbers, but not as good as last year.

 

Luckily, this regression should be more than made up for by the extra 30+ runs that Thome is going to give us over what Frank and Crazy Carl gave. At least I'm praying he stays healthy enough to get 500 AB's.

 

Jenks is really my biggest concern. How will he respond to being the number 1 guy out in the bullpen spring training on? It's alot of pressure and I think he's going to go through some wildness at some point next year. At that point, does Ozzie go back to closer by commitee?

 

The LH out of the bullpen, I'm not worried about. KW will bring someone in to an already strong bullpen and they can be a the 2nd left behind Cotts.

 

 

As was mentioned, any team in MLB, save perhaps the Indians, would trade staffs straight up for the Whitesox. We have the best staff in the bigs, our worries are nothing compared to teams like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, etc.

[Dick Allen]

I was hoping the Sox would shake up the bullpen a little bit. Relief pitchers have a tendency of following good years with bad years, plus you really don't know exactly what you have with Jenks. IIRC he still has a screw in his elbow, and that has to be a concern, especially with Hermanson's status probably being unknown until at least a couple weeks into spring training. I was hoping they kept Marte, but Mackowiak looks like a player the Sox really can use. Overall, I am looking for a drop in production by the bullpen this coming season. It will be interesting to see how the starters handle it. Garcia is a concern playing the World tournament. Buehrle I don't worry about. Garland should be alright although he wasn't as effective the last couple of months of the season. Contreras could be a stud, or he could fall back to the pattern he had with the Yankees and his first season with the Sox, thats why I think its important to keep Duque around. He's worth the $5 million if he makes Contreras better. BMac was very impressive his final few appearances, but he's still young, so it will be interesting to see how he comes out of the gate. Overall, there are a lot of questions, but they do have so many guys who can pitch, a lot , if not most of those questions are going to be answered in the postive as long as they remain healthy.

Edited December 11, 2005 by Dick Allen

[Ozzie Montana]

I definately think KW is looking for a left handed reliever but I think we got rid of our worst problem last week. You're right though, the health of Hermanson and Duque is always a concern but iam less worried with KW as our GM and BMac as our 6th starter.

Edited December 11, 2005 by Ozzie Montana

[Wedge]

The bullpen is my biggest concern at the moment. We've lost Marte who while inconsistent did get the job done from time to time. Nobody seems to know anything about Hermanson's health. We really need to get another reliever in the fold.

 

That said, maybe the revamped line-up will account for the drop-off in the pen.

[Guest JimH]

The key is depth.

 

KW has always said "you need 15 deep in pitchers to get thru a baseball season".

 

Looking at the Barons thread in the other forum, it's obvious that some outside help needs to be brought in. In terms of ready-to-contribute pitching depth, the Sox have Bajenaru and that's it.

 

Which means, I expect to see several minor league contracts offered in January.

[LDF]

The key is depth.

 

KW has always said "you need 15 deep in pitchers to get thru a baseball season".

 

Looking at the Barons thread in the other forum, it's obvious that some outside help needs to be brought in.  In terms of ready-to-contribute pitching depth, the Sox have Bajenaru and that's it.

 

Which means, I expect to see several minor league contracts offered in January.

 

that has been my position in some past threads when i mention that we need more pitching. problem was i couldn't think of a way to post my thoughts. but jim you hit it on the head with the 15 pitchers esp with the uncertainity of several of out key pitchers.

 

problem with my way of thinking is you bring in a pitcher, he is going to want that ball every 4-5 days. how do we explain what we are trying to do. anyho didn't the yanks try that 6 man rotation?

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm not worried at all about the starters. Neither Buehrle or Garland have ever been on the DL. Freddy is a strong bet to make 30+ starts every year. Jose hasn't had any major health problems that I can think of. Duque is obviously the main guy you have to worry about, but with B-Mac in there, you're fine if Duque needs to take a break every now and then.

 

The bullpen has a few concerns. The health of Hermanson is key. We obviously won't know more about him for probably a couple months. As s***ty as Marte was at times last year, he's still a valuable arm that needs to be replaced. I have complete and total faith that Kenny will find a suitable replacement. There's nothing to really worry about besides that. Cotts and Pollite are studs. I really believe Viz will have a much better year in 06. And we get a full year of Bobby Jenks.

[beck72]

My concern lies with the SP. Seeing how Tracey is the 7th SP option in AAA [doesn't seem ready to help this yr] the best bet is to sign a vet to minor league contract for spring training. Seeing how those guys can usually demand a trade if they don't make the big league club out of spring, vets aren't usually options for AAA during the yr. I'd like the sox to pick up another minor league arm [someone from AA who could start the yr in AAA] from deals involving Harris, Gload, Borchard, and expendable minor leaguers [such as Rogowski]

[Guest JimH]

It's a safe bet they'll add a few guys for Charlotte. I can think of at least 5-6 guys they could add. We are now a desireable organization vs. a last resort. Players want to come here.

[BigHurtHallofFame201?]

Jenks does have three pitches which he throws with some consistency. He has the four seamer, power curve, and a knuckle curve. My only problem with Jenks is that he doesn't show the last two enough and (he or, more likely, AJ) fall in love with the heat although that seemed to change a bit in the playoffs.

 

Also, I don't think there is too good of a chance that EL Duque is the fifth starter opening the season. I think that even with an average spring McCarthy'll get it; he is a guy with number one stuff. We all know that, but he needs to be given a shot to do the job, he does not need to win the job anymore. That said, Duque is not by any means expendable as he provides a good influence on Contreras, he has absolutely no fear on the mound, and can still gut it out even when he is barely hitting the low 80's.

 

The concern for me for the '06 Sox is outfield defense. The loss of A-Row hurts in ways we won't know until those balls start hitting the outfield grass, warning track dirt, or outfield wall. Ozzie seems to hold Jerry Owens in high regard so perhaps he, or Chris Young, can step in because the '05 Sox won a great many games not due to the bat of Aaron Rowand, but due to the jumps, routes, glove, and all around hustle of Aaron Rowand. I forgot about Brian Anderson. I think it is going to be a three way scrum for CF with Anderson not holding an immediate edge even with his prior big league experience, whoever performs the best will get the job.

 

Going back to the pitching though, I have no idea why you would go about creating an issue where our strength lies (starting and relief). I think Jenks showed himself to be of extremely solid stuff composure-wise, and to make arguments otherwise, I think, sounds alot like the Doubters we heard all throughout the end of last season: "This team has no playoff experience." "They have a closer who wasn't in the Big Leagues until July." I just see absolutely no reason to be worrying about the lack of a lefthander or the health of Hermie. The outfield defense is much more suspect at this point if we're speaking about concerns, as of course the point of the offseason is too quibble about matters like this. Outfield defense, problem #1. Relief Pitching, problem #2. But neither of these are problems worth worrying about, at least not until Spring Training hits.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Jenks does have three pitches which he throws with some consistency. He has the four seamer, power curve, and a knuckle curve. My only problem with Jenks is that he doesn't show the last two enough and (he or, more likely, AJ) fall in love with the heat although that seemed to change a bit in the playoffs.

 

Also, I don't think there is too good of a chance that EL Duque is the fifth starter opening the season. I think that even with an average spring McCarthy'll get it; he is a guy with number one stuff. We all know that, but he needs to be given a shot to do the job, he does not need to win the job anymore. That said, Duque is not by any means expendable as he provides a good influence on Contreras, he has absolutely no fear on the mound, and can still gut it out even when he is barely hitting the low 80's.

 

The concern for me for the '06 Sox is outfield defense.  The loss of A-Row hurts in ways we won't know until those balls start hitting the outfield grass, warning track dirt, or outfield wall.  Ozzie seems to hold Jerry Owens in high regard so perhaps he, or Chris Young, can step in because the '05 Sox won a great many games not due to the bat of Aaron Rowand, but due to the jumps, routes, glove, and all around hustle of Aaron Rowand.  I forgot about Brian Anderson.  I think it is going to be a three way scrum for CF with Anderson not holding an immediate edge even with his prior big league experience, whoever performs the best will get the job. 

 

Going back to the pitching though, I have no idea why you would go about creating an issue where our strength lies (starting and relief).  I think Jenks showed himself to be of extremely solid stuff composure-wise, and to make arguments otherwise, I think, sounds alot like the Doubters we heard all throughout the end of last season: "This team has no playoff experience." "They have a closer who wasn't in the Big Leagues until July." I just see absolutely no reason to be worrying about the lack of a lefthander or the health of Hermie.  The outfield defense is much more suspect at this point if we're speaking about concerns, as of course the point of the offseason is too quibble about matters like this.  Outfield defense, problem #1. Relief Pitching, problem #2. But neither of these are problems worth worrying about, at least not until Spring Training hits.

 

 

Good post. Let's just hope that Anderson's d is as good as advertised.

[IggyD]

Ditto...well said BigHurtHallofFame201?

[chitownsportsfan]

"I just see absolutely no reason to be worrying about the lack of a lefthander or the health of Hermie. The outfield defense is much more suspect at this point if we're speaking about concerns, as of course the point of the offseason is too quibble about matters like this. Outfield defense, problem #1. Relief Pitching, problem #2. But neither of these are problems worth worrying about, at least not until Spring Training hits."

 

 

Outfield defense? 2 of the 3 pieces remain the same, BA is projected to roughly the same of Rowand--less range, better arm. How is that a huge problem?

 

A 24 year old closer with a history of arm trouble, a 22 year old Bmac, and legit concerns about repeat performances from Contreras, Buehrle and Garland seems much more pressing than outfield defense.

 

I'm not saying that any of the players I've mentioned won't play well, just that outfield defense is a long way away from importance and concern compared to the performance of the pitching staff.

[Harry&JimmyRocked]

i thought MB had a sore elbow at the end of last year. my only concern is the fact they logged TONS of innings. hopefully this year, ozzie knows when to pull them when the game is out of hand one way or the other.

[LDF]

"I just see absolutely no reason to be worrying about the lack of a lefthander or the health of Hermie. The outfield defense is much more suspect at this point if we're speaking about concerns, as of course the point of the offseason is too quibble about matters like this. Outfield defense, problem #1. Relief Pitching, problem #2. But neither of these are problems worth worrying about, at least not until Spring Training hits."

Outfield defense?  2 of the 3 pieces remain the same, BA is projected to roughly the same of Rowand--less range, better arm.  How is that a huge problem?

 

A 24 year old closer with a history of arm trouble, a 22 year old Bmac, and legit concerns about repeat performances from Contreras, Buehrle and Garland seems much more pressing than outfield defense.

 

I'm not saying that any of the players I've mentioned won't play well, just that outfield defense is a long way away from importance and concern compared to the performance of the pitching staff.

you are putting mb there as a concern of a repeat performance. he has been without a doubt our steadiest sp. but the other 2 you have mention, i agree with you point.

 

however, positioning a 6 sp/rp in orlando is the way to go. i hope our minor league pitchers continue to develop.

[LDF]

hopefully this year, ozzie knows when to pull them when the game is out of hand one way or the other.

 

how many games did the sox played with the outcome of the game was decided by 1 or 2 runs. there wasn't too many games that were blows outs.

[jphat007]

You guys worry too much. Obviously any starting pitcher could go down at any time for any team. It's the luck of the draw. We had pretty good luck with it last year. We could again this year, or we couldn't.

 

Bottom line is that we have 6 pitchers capable of starting at a fairly high level. Most teams go into the year with 4 and have to work from there. We have the leg up on pretty much eveyone in the pitching department.

[chitownsportsfan]

I recently read a very good article from the hard ball times that looked at pitchers HR/rate in 2005 and what we can learn from it.

 

MB had one of the lowest rates of his career, which no doubt helped him to his best season yet. Unfortunetly, HR/rate is highly variable even for the best pitchers.

 

I feel a strike first guy like MB is especially vulnerable to the long ball. Hopefully he proves me wrong with another low HR/rate year, but I would bet on his ERA rising as well as his HR/rate.

 

Not to say he won't have another great year, but I would be surprised to see a repeat performance--he was excellent last year, top 5 pitcher in the league no doubt. That will be tough to repeat, but he is our best pitcher IMO

[RockRaines]

" 2 of the 3 pieces remain the same, BA is projected to roughly the same of Rowand--less range, better arm.  How is that a huge problem?

 

 

FYI. I think BA has more range than A-row, he has more speed, and gets just as good as jumps.

[chitownsportsfan]

I too have heard that about BA Rock, but I'm not willing to say he's going to be as good as Rowand his first year in the bigs defensively. I think he will be a + CF but as good or better than Arow? I'll reserve judgement.