Vazquez at a glance

[nitetrain8601]

So basically we agree...

 

Hell yeah.

[That funky motion]

Javier Vazquez Chicago Projection

The White Sox picked up a solid starting pitcher in Javier Vazquez. What can he provide in '06?

 

Vazquez had the misfortune of pitching at Chase Field in 2005, which is definitely a hitter's park. His new home, U.S. Cellular, is something of a home run haven. As we did with Josh Beckett, let's start with a baseline park-neutral projection and then factor some things in.

 

IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W WHIP

219 207 96 32 55 194 3.95 13 1.20

 

 

I don't think you can blame Vazquez's recent gopheritis entirely on Chase Field or his Bronx Breakdown. Vazquez has always been around the plate, and he can't get away with it as much anymore.

 

My first step was to tack some more runs and hits and a few less walks and Ks onto the totals to adjust for a move to the American League. After that, I adjusted for U.S. Cellular Field. Chase Field inflated HRs by 13%, but U.S. Cellular will boost them by 35%.

 

I came up with 38 HR allowed in 219 innings pitched. Has a pitcher ever succeeded with that kind of home run rate? Sure - Brad Radke, Greg Maddux, Jon Lieber, and even Mark Prior are prone to the longball sometimes. You're probably not going to have an ERA much under 4, but you can do alright. Often the pitchers susceptible to home runs are always around the plate and have weak strikeout rates, but Vazquez is the rare pitcher who doesn't walk many, gives up lots of homers, and strikes people out. It helps limits the damage of the dingers.

 

There are some more adjustments to be made, however. While I can't measure the possible positive effects of pitching coach Don Cooper, I do know that the White Sox defense should save some runs for Vazquez. He'll go from pitching in front of the 13th ranked defense in the NL to one of the best in the AL, even without Aaron Rowand. Plus, the solid Sox bullpen should be good for at least a couple of wins. Here's the final projection:

 

IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W WHIP

219 203 98 38 51 184 4.03 16 1.16

 

 

Vazquez is a decent bet in fantasy baseball. Solid WHIP, plenty of Ks. Who knows, maybe Don Cooper shows him the same home run reducing trick he showed Jon Garland this year. If Vazquez finds a way to keep the HRs allowed under 25, he could slash his ERA down to 3.50.

 

 

 

16 wins! I'll take it!

[nitetrain8601]

I'll take that out of our 5th pitcher.

[timotime]

Remember, his good stats were in the National League.  Anything in the mid-3's in that league becomes a 4+ ERA in the AL with the DH.  And I haven't compared Arizona to the Cell, but I'm sure our ballpark isn't going to help his stats.  He gives up a LOT of long balls.  68 in 2 years??  Is that right??

 

Personally, I'm not sold yet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

im not sold either. obviously vasquez has great potential. those stats above are impressive, but i find them to be a little too optimistic. cant ignore what VA fan is saying with the longball.

 

i trust ozzie and coop to make it work though. vasquez certainly has the potential.

 

and before you say anything, VAfan, yes, it is too late to trade for or sign brian giles.