ESPN insider review of Vazquez trade

[Steve9347]

I couldn't have said it better myself

 

Eric Karabell discusses the latest moves in baseball and what they mean for fantasy.

 

• Diamondbacks trade Javier Vazquez to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino and outfield prospect Chris Young: A tremendous trade for the defending champs, who essentially deal off a broken down, aged swingman, a failed closer and a prospect with potential for a safe 220-inning pitcher. The White Sox won the World Series with pitching and the best rotation in the game. Vazquez slots in as potentially the best No. 5 starter in the game.

 

Is there something to be said for being the No. 5 guy, and getting easier matchups and thus more wins? It's an overrated idea, because Vazquez could end up facing a bunch of ace starters as well, but there's no question the White Sox are strong from Nos. 1 to 5 with Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras and Vazquez.

 

Is Vazquez still a star pitcher, a fantasy ace? Not really. In his final season with the Expos, in 2003, Vazquez had arguably his finest numbers, with a career-low 3.24 ERA and career bests in innings and strikeouts. His first year as a Yankee didn't go well, as he likely wilted under the pressure and had a 4.91 ERA, resulting in a trade to Arizona for Randy Johnson. His only year in Arizona was fine, but he was no fantasy star, with a 4.42 ERA (a bit high) but low 1.25 WHIP (very good over 215.2 innings). Well, now Vazquez is on the move again.

 

It would be reasonable to expect the White Sox to furnish Vazquez with enough run support for a 15-win season. His ERA isn't likely to be under 4, because it wasn't either of the last two seasons and now he's back in the American League. But as a No. 3 or 4 starter in fantasy, you can do worse. The odd thing here, and this hurts those in keeper leagues who had locked up Brandon McCarthy for a dollar, is that the kid won't be in the rotation and likely starts the season in the minors.

 

Who did the Diamondbacks get? Well, Orlando Hernandez was a playoff star in the Boston series (pitching one time), but he's no lock at all for regular season stardom. There are a number of reasons for this. For one, the Cuban import might well be a few years older than his advertised 36 years of age. He had shoulder problems in 2005, making only 22 starts. In fact, he hasn't reached as many as 30 starts in a season since 1999, and 2000 was the last time he topped 150 innings. So basically, he's not young, and he's not durable. And when he did pitch in 2005, he wasn't good. His season ERA was 5.12, and his WHIP a startling 1.46. Hernandez walked 50 batters in 128.1 innings. Walks lead to high pitch counts, which lead to injuries, which lead to a fantasy bust. Don't count on Hernandez, even though this will be his first foray into the National League.

 

Vizcaino won't be the Arizona closer, in part because the team has better options (Jose Valverde, mainly) but also because Vizcaino hasn't been very good. In 2005, he wasn't used in pressure situations or to protect small leads. His season ERA of 3.73 speaks to luck, since his WHIP was a bloated 1.47. He allowed more hits than innings, eight home runs and had a high walk rate. He had varied success in a three-year stint as a Brewer, but even they didn't use him to close. He's an ordinary middle reliever and not worth a look in fantasy.

 

Young, the outfield prospect the Diamondbacks acquired, is intriguing, both from a team aspect and fantasy. Young, not to be confused with the 6-foot-8 Texas Rangers pitcher of the same name, is a speedy, athletic center fielder who has put up significant numbers the last two seasons in Single-A Kannapolis and Double-A Birmingham. He averaged 25 home runs and 32 stolen bases the past two seasons, but at 22 years old, will likely begin 2006 in Triple-A. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be shopping third baseman Troy Glaus, and could put into effect a string of position changes that would open up center field, but it's too early to expect Young to be that guy. Maybe in 2007. The moves, by the way, could still happen if Glaus is moved. Shawn Green isn't really a center fielder, but he has been playing there. Chad Tracy shouldn't be in right field, either. He's a third baseman. Conor Jackson is the team's new first baseman. Young isn't likely to man center field yet.

[SSH2005]

Don't count on Hernandez, even though this will be his first foray into the National League.

El Duque was on the Expos for a very short time, but he never pitched for them due to injury. The White Sox got El Duque from the Yankees for Antonio Osuna and then dealt him to the Expos in a package for Bartolo Colon in 2003.