Rumor: 4-Way Garland Trade

[DBAHO]

Stolen Bases are severely underrated on this board.

Well you can argue it both ways, even if a guy steals a lot of bases and it doesn't bring in a lot of additional runs, you can say it hasn't been that valuable.

 

But then there's the pressure it puts on the pitcher, and help minimising double plays etc.

[Chisoxfn]

In general stolen bases have been vastly under-rated since the tenure and popularity of the money ball GM's.

 

Now in the next couple years there may be a shift and they'll become vastly over-rated. We shall see.

[RME JICO]

Yes, they are.

 

I know you love Pods and all but in general SBs are overrated.

 

SB's are overrated? By who? I would have to disagree.

 

The Sox won 72% of their games when Pods stole a base, and only 58% when he did not. They won their last 13 games (including post season) when Pods stole a base. They were also 5-8 during the August slump without him in the lineup (including 6 straight losses).

 

The SB sets up the offense and makes everything better. It makes a single or walk into an extra base hit, it reduces the amount of sacrifices needed to score, and it puts added pressure on the pitcher.

 

Stolen bases by themselves are not going to win you ball games, but if you couple them with timely hitting, then they become multipliers.

[AnthraxFan93]

I saw this trade on another board.. and thought about it..

 

I would do this deal if, we get a MI minor leaguer, WE don't need any more OF, CI(if fields turns it around this year), C seems to be stable for a while, the only concern is MI, in the near furture. Guchi, might be gone after next year (can't remember what we signed him for).

 

I like the idea of Bernard out of the pen, for this year.. Have Coop have Vazquez and Bernard as his projects this year. I also am not concerned about Bernard health issues, we have a great medical staff here, this should help out that situation.

 

I could care less about who the Cubs get, I am scared that the boston gets Prior..Just think of their Rotation next year

 

1. Schilling

2. Prior

3. Beckett

4. Pappabono

5. Clement/Wells?

 

I would hate to face that Rotation healthy in a 5/7 game series.

[3E8]

SB's are overrated?  By who? I would have to disagree. 

 

The Sox won 72% of their games when Pods stole a base, and only 58% when he did not.  They won their last 13 games (including post season) when Pods stole a base.  They were also 5-8 during the August slump without him in the lineup (including 6 straight losses).

 

The SB sets up the offense and makes everything better.  It makes a single or walk into an extra base hit, it reduces the amount of sacrifices needed to score, and it puts added pressure on the pitcher.

 

Stolen bases by themselves are not going to win you ball games, but if you couple them with timely hitting, then they become multipliers.

The Sox won 73% of their regular season games when Pods was caught stealing. I've been saying this for years, but caught stealings are where it's at.

[YASNY]

SB's are overrated?  By who? I would have to disagree. 

 

The Sox won 72% of their games when Pods stole a base, and only 58% when he did not.  They won their last 13 games (including post season) when Pods stole a base.  They were also 5-8 during the August slump without him in the lineup (including 6 straight losses).

 

The SB sets up the offense and makes everything better.  It makes a single or walk into an extra base hit, it reduces the amount of sacrifices needed to score, and it puts added pressure on the pitcher.

 

Stolen bases by themselves are not going to win you ball games, but if you couple them with timely hitting, then they become multipliers.

 

Add those together and that comes to 130% of the Sox victories. Interesting stat.

[Steve Bartman's my idol]

Why would the Sox do this?  The Boston Globe is out of their minds.

 

O's lose Tejada and Bedard - gain Ramirez, Garland???

 

Red Sox lose Ramirez - gain Prior

 

Cubs lose Prior - gain Tejada

 

Sox lose Garland - gain Bedard???

 

Riigghhttt!

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...lookout/?page=2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We'd also get Will Ohman and Angel Guzman.

 

That said, ther's no way I make that deal if I'm the Sox!

Edited December 26, 2005 by Steve Bartman's my idol

[RME JICO]

The Sox won 73% of their regular season games when Pods was caught stealing.  I've been saying this for years, but caught stealings are where it's at.

The Sox had a 1.000 Winning percentage when Pods stole a base AND was caught stealing in the same game.

 

The bottom line is if the Sox were running (stealing or getting caught), they were putting enough pressure on the other team to win at least 72%-73% of their games.

[AnthraxFan93]

We'd also get Will Ohman and Angel Guzman.

 

That said, ther's no way I make that deal if I'm the Sox!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

And why not? We get 3 pitchers for the price of one, but again I would not do thise deal because of Boston potential Rotation.

[3E8]

Add those together and that comes to 130% of the Sox victories.  Interesting stat.

No, you're thinking about it the wrong way. Those two percentages need not add up to 100.

[Adam G]

Add those together and that comes to 130% of the Sox victories.  Interesting stat.

You're making my head hurt dude. lol hungover

[hammerhead johnson]

The Sox won 73% of their regular season games when Pods was caught stealing.  I've been saying this for years, but caught stealings are where it's at.

 

That's exactly right. The team that has the most "caught stealings" is without question the most amazing, ABSOLUTE BEST team in the majors in all cases, without exception.

 

I find it very amusing that we had the worst SB% in the AL among teams with 100+ SB chances. This was through the middle of September, though. Perhaps some AL team was better than us at getting caught by the time the '05 came to a close.

 

Bring on Pierre, and maybe we'll have a SB success rate of 65%, as opposed to barely 70%. It's gonna be unbelievably awesome watching guys getting thrown out left and right. It's a beautiful thing, an absolute joy to watch. This is not to mention the flawless defensive skills that are on display every time a ball is hit to either Pods or Pierre. God damn are those guys gifted!

[JUGGERNAUT]

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to everyone!

Cubs <- Tejada

Boston <- Prior

O's <- Ramirez, & Garland

White Sox <- Bedard

 

No freaken way! There is no way the RedSox are accepting ONLY Prior in exchange for Manny. Likewise ChiSox accepting ONLY Bedard for Garland.

 

Garland is coming off of his best year including a CG in the ALCS. How many pitchers in the game today can claim a CG in the ALCS? His trade value even as a rent a player is higher than Bedard.

 

Cubs <- Tejada, Borchard

Boston <- Prior, Perez

O's <- Ramirez, Garland

White Sox <- Bedard, Pie

 

Depending on how much you value Borchy's solid year last year that still might not be enough.

[AnthraxFan93]

Jug, with all of our OF in the minors, why would we want to add another one to the mix?

[SkokieSox]

Jug, with all of our OF in the minors, why would we want to add another one to the mix?

Can't hurt, as he can always be dealt at the deadline for other needs.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

If we were to hypothetically add a young OF you would hope it'd be a corner one as we have been on a run of CF's lately but not guys with big sticks

[Adam G]

No freaken way!  There is no way the RedSox are accepting ONLY Prior in exchange for Manny. 

Only Prior? He's headed into the prime of his career and very well might be a perennial Cy Young candidate, Manny is a $20 million a year malcontent. And pitching almost always >>>> hitting anyway.

[Guest JimH]

Garland is coming off of his best year including a CG in the ALCS.  How many pitchers in the game today can claim a CG in the ALCS?  His trade value even as a rent a player is higher than Bedard.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Right now with Garland going into arbitration and in line for a huge $$ award, the market for him is limited. There are only a handful of teams who'd be willing to take on (probably) $8M in salary with only a one year guarantee.

 

Bedard, on the other hand, is young and cheap. My guess is there are 29 teams who'd be interested in him.

 

Based on talent alone, I see your point, but unfortunately the trade market is always skewed by economic realities.

[beck72]

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to everyone! 

Cubs

Boston

O's

White Sox

 

No freaken way!  There is no way the RedSox are accepting ONLY Prior in exchange for Manny.  Likewise ChiSox accepting ONLY Bedard for Garland.

 

Garland is coming off of his best year including a CG in the ALCS.  How many pitchers in the game today can claim a CG in the ALCS?  His trade value even as a rent a player is higher than Bedard.

 

 

The A's have been rumored to be invovled in the 3 way trade as well. They'd get Bedard for Zito. If the A's can only get Bedard for Zito, the sox would be even less likely to get him

 

Though with his injury history, I wouldn't trade Jon for Bedard.

[ZoomSlowik]

Only Prior?  He's headed into the prime of his career and very well might be a perennial Cy Young candidate, Manny is a $20 million a year malcontent.  And pitching almost always >>>> hitting anyway.

 

Whatever problems he presents, Manny is still one of the top 5 hitters in baseball. He can have a monstrous impact on a team's lineup. For all the talk about him being a team cancer, he's been on an awful lot of winning teams in Cleveland and Boston that didn't always have great pitching, and he's a major part of that. His antics have to reach T.O. levels to really decrease his value. The Red Sox almost certainly would eat at least some of his money, in fact they almost have to. If you can get Manny for $15 mil a year for 3 years, you're getting a hell of a player. Even when he is pissed off he still hits better than 99% of the league.

 

On the other hand, Prior is a guy that has not pitched a full season yet in his major league career. Two of his injuries were a bit of a fluke, but he still had an achilles problem and his elbow was acting up earlier this year. He hasn't exactly pitched up to his talent in the last few years and it seems that he is regressing a bit (although injuries might play a role).

 

Manny has a lot more value to his team than Prior does right now. If Prior were such a sought after pitcher that was going to put up Cy Young numbers for the next few years, he'd already be in Baltimore. He has the talent to do it, but it is far from a certainty with him at this point. You're still taking a risk with Prior in terms of his performance, whereas the only risk with Manny is team chemistry, something you're not too likely to worry about when you haven't won the division in that long a time.

 

One pitcher doesn't make a pitching staff, so Manny would almost certainly have a bigger impact in Baltimore, since the O's would still be at least 2 good pitcher short of having a playoff-caliber rotation.

Edited December 27, 2005 by ZoomSlowik

[bmags]

Whatever problems he presents, Manny is still one of the top 5 hitters in baseball. He can have a monstrous impact on a team's lineup. For all the talk about him being a team cancer, he's been on an awful lot of winning teams in Cleveland and Boston that didn't always have great pitching, and he's a major part of that. His antics have to reach T.O. levels to really decrease his value. The Red Sox almost certainly would eat at least some of his money, in fact they almost have to. If you can get Manny for $15 mil a year for 3 years, you're getting a hell of a player. Even when he is pissed off he still hits better than 99% of the league.

 

On the other hand, Prior is a guy that has not pitched a full season yet in his major league career. Two of his injuries were a bit of a fluke, but he still had an achilles problem and his elbow was acting up earlier this year. He hasn't exactly pitched up to his talent in the last few years and it seems that he is regressing a bit (although injuries might play a role).

 

Manny has a lot more value to his team than Prior does right now. If Prior were such a sought after pitcher that was going to put up Cy Young numbers for the next few years, he'd already be in Baltimore. He has the talent to do it, but it is far from a certainty with him at this point. You're still taking a risk with Prior in terms of his performance, whereas the only risk with Manny is team chemistry, something you're not too likely to worry about when you haven't won the division in that long a time.

 

One pitcher doesn't make a pitching staff, so Manny would almost certainly have a bigger impact in Baltimore, since the O's would still be at least 2 good pitcher short of having a playoff-caliber rotation.

 

his contract would be gone too

[fathom]

Manny's a better player than Prior, but to say Manny has more value than him right now is false.

[ZoomSlowik]

Manny's a better player than Prior, but to say Manny has more value than him right now is false.

 

I disagree. In terms of straight player values, Manny is a much more valuable player to the team's overall production. The difference is that Boston signed him to a ridiculous contract that overpays him, while Prior is still on his rookie deal. Prior is more moveable entirely because of contract value. If Manny were a FA and not attached to such a monster deal, or if the Red Sox payed it down to $14 or $15 mil, his value is a lot higher. Regardless of the contract, if you put Prior on the Red Sox and Manny on the Cubs last season, I'd say that the Red Sox are around 90 wins at best, while the Cubs would probably actually be over .500. Putting Manny in that lineup would make it pretty impressive, albiet the pitching would to too weak for them to get much higher than a high-80's win total. That Red Sox lineup would go from being one of the best in the league to merely slightly above average, and the improvement in the pitching staff probably couldn't counteract the loss of a massive bat. If Schilling were healthy the following year that might be another story because the Red Sox staff would have some monster potential, but I digress.

[sircaffey]

I disagree. In terms of straight player values, Manny is a much more valuable player to the team's overall production. The difference is that Boston signed him to a ridiculous contract that overpays him, while Prior is still on his rookie deal. Prior is more moveable entirely because of contract value. If Manny were a FA and not attached to such a monster deal, or if the Red Sox payed it down to $14 or $15 mil, his value is a lot higher. Regardless of the contract, if you put Prior on the Red Sox and Manny on the Cubs last season, I'd say that the Red Sox are around 90 wins at best, while the Cubs would probably actually be over .500. Putting Manny in that lineup would make it pretty impressive, albiet the pitching would to too weak for them to get much higher than a high-80's win total. That Red Sox lineup would go from being one of the best in the league to merely slightly above average, and the improvement in the pitching staff probably couldn't counteract the loss of a massive bat. If Schilling were healthy the following year that might be another story because the Red Sox staff would have some monster potential, but I digress.

 

Isn't that what fathom said. He said Manny is the better player, but his value right now is lower than Prior's. Put it this way. There are 2 maybe 3 suitors that would be interested in Manny right now. There are 30 that would be interested in Prior.

[Adam G]

His antics have to reach T.O. levels to really decrease his value.

Yeah, I dunno about that. If you're a team that he hasnt specifically stated that he wants to be traded to, you'll always be wondering when the next time he'll go off is. I wouldnt want him in my clubhouse if he was a GM, when you take into account his attitude, his contract, and his age.

The Red Sox almost certainly would eat at least some of his money, in fact they almost have to. If you can get Manny for $15 mil a year for 3 years, you're getting a hell of a player. Even when he is pissed off he still hits better than 99% of the league.

No one doubts his talent, but numbers alone do not a desireable team player make. Rafael Palmeiro is still good for 30/100 a season but you're not going to see teams lining up for his services.

On the other hand, Prior is a guy that has not pitched a full season yet in his major league career. Two of his injuries were a bit of a fluke, but he still had an achilles problem and his elbow was acting up earlier this year. He hasn't exactly pitched up to his talent in the last few years and it seems that he is regressing a bit (although injuries might play a role).

He led the league in Ks/9 innings last season, that's a pretty neat trick for an underachiever. And then there's the age factor, where Prior is just heading into his prime and has at least 10 more years to look forward to, where Manny has probably peaked and is on the downside of a very expensive career. He's going to be baseball's version of Allan Houston.

Manny has a lot more value to his team than Prior does right now.

If you're talking about next season and next season alone, then I'd agree with you. But anything beyond that, I disagree.

whereas the only risk with Manny is team chemistry

Age, attitude, and money.

, something you're not too likely to worry about when you haven't won the division in that long a time.

I dunno about that either. Remember two years ago when the clubhouse disintigrated over freakin Steve Stone? Chemistry is always a concern, regardless of your record.

One pitcher doesn't make a pitching staff, so Manny would almost certainly have a bigger impact in Baltimore, since the O's would still be at least 2 good pitcher short of having a playoff-caliber rotation.

And one hitter does not an All Star slugger make. One wonders what Manny would do if he didnt have Manny Ortiz and Jim Thome in the same lineup.